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Duff Man

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Posts posted by Duff Man

  1. The most impressive aspect of Conklin's season is that he's bringing his best performances against the toughest competition.

    If we win the conference Conklin has to be given consideration. I doubt if he would win it but he would have to be 1st team all-conference.

    He's a POY candidate, but if it's a coin toss between him and a player from an east coast school (e.g. Temple's Ramone Moore), the east coast player is going to win (like when Kevin Anderson got the award over Jordan Crawford). That being said, first team all conference is definitely a possibility - and honestly even being named 3rd team in a conference this deep is a major accomplishment for any player.

  2. I have Uverse as well. My understanding is that you should be able to watch on one of FSM's alternate channels, 1691 or 1692. It should be in HD.

    U-verse channel guide currently has the game listed on both 691 and 1691(HD).

    My (Comcast) system labels FSM plus as "FSM-A", and has our game scheduled, but that's a premium service for me.

    Indeed, the game is also being carried (nationally, I presume) on FSCA (Fox College Sports Atlantic), which is part of the sports tier on U-Verse (647 - right there with Big10 and CBSSN) and Charter (400).

    No HD on that option, but it does increase the number of hoops junkies and sports bar patrons across the country who will see it.

    When we beat Xavier tomorrow, I want the world to see it.

    I like the attitude, but be careful what you wish for. Back in 1998 the Bills were 17-6, riding a 5-game win streak, with 19th ranked Cincy coming to town...and the world saw us get smoked 70-43 on ESPN.

  3. Dayton is currently 4-1 and haven't had an 'easy' game yet. They have to be considered a top contender. With Archie Miller on the sideline, these aren't your older brother's Flyers. Even assuming they drop road games at SLU and X, they should coast through their remaining home games (URI, Duq, Char, UMass, GW), and would only need 2 road wins from this pool @SJU, @Fordham, @Duquesne, @Richmond to get to 11-5.

    Everything I read about Umass' Kellogg suggests that he's not a good Xs and Os coach. He could be the heir to Brian Gregory's throne. I'm not terribly concerned about UMass.

    If history has taught us anything, it's that X and Temple are going to grind out enough wins to finish top 4 and make the dance.

    It's tough to handicap La Salle (or SLU) for that matter given what we've seen thus far. That Feb 11th match-up looms large.

  4. Xavier has not lost an A10 home game since 2/28/06. It's not a must win.

    It's going to be 8 on 5...this will be tougher than @NM or vs Temple...it will take the best game we've played all year to pull it out.

    UMass will be tough because it's such a quick turnaround travel wise, but Majerus should be able to coach circles around Kellogg.

  5. Nice analyses in this thread. I can't disagree with any of it. But for just squeaking out a win against Charlotte after being down by 14 at one point, we sure are counting a lot of chickens.

    No one is counting anything, just realistically sizing up the task at hand. There's not one game we've played that we couldn't have won, had we cut down on the turnovers and made better use of critical possessions.

    The Charlotte game was in many ways our most impressive win to date, and there's still much room for improvement. We proved we can beat an RPI top 100 team in their gym (something we'll need to do at least twice more if we're to have any chance of an at-large bid). We proved we can erase a double-digit deficit.

    Most importantly, we saw a glimpse of Mitchell/McCall/Jett on the floor together wreaking havoc. Not to slight the heroics of Conklin, Evans, and Ellis, but this team is only going so far as our triumvirate of speedy guards can carry us.

  6. Unless something dramatic happens and our OOC opponents all go on simultaneous tears through their remaining regular season schedules, our at-large resume is going to hinge on our high standing within a tough A-10 conference. 5th place ain't gonna cut it...and 4th puts us on the bubble, with the A10 quarterfinal against the 5th (or 12th) place team serving as an eliminator game.

    We need to distinguish ourselves in the A10. A tie for 2nd at 12-4 should be enough, provided we don't embarrass ourselves getting blown out by a lower seed in A10 quarterfinal. If we finish in 3rd place at 11-5, we're going to need a solid showing in Atlantic City to get in.

    Forget the A10 tournament...just split with X, win every other game and claim the goddamn regular season A10 title (last split regular season championship was 1971, last outright was 1957).

  7. This being said, my belief is that a SLU team with a 21 RPI would be a shoo in, a lock, for the NCAA, and that a SLU team on Selection Sunday with its projected RPI of 39 would also be in. Reason: SLU is a nationally recognized university in a major media market, with a nationally known, future Hall of Fame Coach. This year's SLU team was ranked, and thus is known. Many of the national pundits have commented on this SLU team.

    The A10 will not likely get more than 4, and in X and Temple are definitely included in any 4-bid scenario. There are a handful of teams with realistic shots at the 3rd and 4th at-large bids, and there's even more teams that could be dangerous in the A10 tournament.

    Bottom line: this isn't going to be easy. We can't finish 4th in the conference, then lose the A10 quarterfinal to the 5th place team and expect to make the dance.

  8. I think the thing you're overlooking is the human element in consensus. Those are people picking the NCAA Tournament field, just as those voting in the polls are people. When there are enough people evaluating things, a consensus forms, and, in general, any representative evaluating group will be fairly close to another such group in evaluating the same sample. If the Bills are ranked in the final poll, they'll be an NCAA Tournament team.

    c u m hoc ergo propter hoc

    No s h i t if they're ranked in the final poll they'll make the tournament. That's beside the point.

    First of all, I was speaking to the argument that being ranked consistently indirectly boosts their seed. Being ranked in March is MUCH different from being ranked in December. It's better to be ranked once late in the year, than be ranked every week Nov-Jan, but not in Feb/March.

    Secondly, not everyone voting in the weekly polls takes their voting responsibility seriously. The committee members know this. While they may not be as informed as the best writers/coaches, they're at least engaged in a vetting process that considers the body of work for each team (unlike some weekly poll voters). It's my perception that the committee (the adults) are - for better or worse - too arrogant to let the opinions of the coaches and writers (the children) influence their decisions.

    The objective is to make the tournament, not the top 25. If anything being ranked only fires up the opposition and makes it harder to win. LMU is 2-0 against the top 25 teams and 2-4 against all other D1 opponents.

  9. Yeah. I primarily would like to see the Billikens get to the NCAA tournament. The more often that they're in the top 25 the better their chances and higher the seed. There may not be a direct correlation for this, but their is definitely an indirect relationship. Plus, there is much more information printed everywhere about teams that are in the top 25.from a fans point of view, that alone is reason enough to have some interest in being ranked.

    I'm not so sure this is true. Gonzaga was ranked #6 one year and ended up a 6-seed.

    Being ranked is nice because it turns heads in the media who might otherwise not pay attention at all, and surely it helps with recruiting - but it's not inherently boosting our NCAA prospects. At the end of the season, the committee going to look at our quality wins, (hopefully lack of) bad losses, not our weekly ranking history.

    Also, it's dumb to worry about seeding when the 32 teams seeded 5 thru 12 are typically capable of beating each other on any given night.

    Bottom line: Beat the teams we're supposed to beat in December, finish in the top 2 in the A10, and everything works out naturally.

  10. there is concern on the nova board...

    This will be a tough game in my opinion. I will not be surprised in the least if we come out on the wrong end. St. Louis always seems to have a bunch of crackers that move the ball around like a hot potato and shoot the lights out. Usually play tenacious D too.

  11. When SLU cracked the AP poll at #24 on 1/17/94 after starting the season 13-0, it was their first national ranking since 12/29/64*

    The 1994 team peaked at #16 on 2/28, when they were 20-3 having most recently beaten Cincy to finish the season undefeated at home.

    *only 10 teams were ranked from 1961-68, while 20 teams were ranked from 1949-1960, 1969-89, now 25 from 1990-present

  12. The point here being if RM's going to grant him that many minutes he's got to do something with them more than pass up open shots and playing timid.

    KC just needs to play smart. Take the open shot. If it's not falling, drive and kick to guys who can make them. That's his game.

    He had a lot of dreadful shooting games last year. If he's shooting poorly his minutes have to be cut, period. Whoever takes his minutes will need to match his defensive intensity, cause that's just how RM rolls.

  13. Yeah, but I thought he graduated. ;)

    Matt Dickey Voted MBB Preseason Player of the Year

    http://www.bigsouths...TCLID=205314343

    UNC Asheville senior Matt Dickey (Trussville, Ala.) has been voted the 2011-12 Big South Conference Men's Basketball Preseason Player of the Year by the League's Head Coaches and media panel, it was announced today at the Conference's annual Basketball Tip-Off Media Luncheon at the Renaissance Suites Hotel in Charlotte, N.C.

  14. Just as a point of reference, SLU beat St. Ambrose by a score of 61-47 two years ago. St. Ambrose actually had the lead in that game with about 7 minutes remaining before the Billikens finally pulled away. SLU ended up winning 23 games that season with a squad that was much younger and had much less depth. And to be honest, there were just as many people sh*tting a brick about that game as there are doing the same for this past one.

    The difference between that game and this game (besides Screech's hair), is that in 2009 freshman combined for 103 minutes while in 2011 we had just 9 (all from Manning).

    Posted Image

  15. My general observation is that aside from Evans and Conklin, everyone is struggling to find his role.

    Kwamain is just not as sharp as he needs to be as the leader of the offense. He had a 3 go halfway down then out, missed an uncontested layup (that Evans put back in), and another driving layup that just didn't drop (on one of those 'screw it, I'm scoring on this possession' drives). He was frustrated with himself, his teammates, and the game in general.

    Cassity had a dreadful shooting game. He had more missed FGs (9) than Jett and McCall's combined FG attempts (8). I applaud him for taking the open shots, but if the shot isn't dropping he can't be on the floor for 30 minutes.

    Loe might be a great shooter in practice, and it's not like we have a great alternative at the 5, but he needs to let the game come to him and work for high percentage shots.

    Jett had an alright game. He's playing under control. Needs to shoot more, especially when KM is on the bench.

    McCall was like an invisible man for most of the game. Just one 3pt attempt. He needs to find his role as a scorer.

    Ellis is playing himself out of the rotation. Glaze would be a better rebounder and Barnett a better shooter. Something's got to give...

    Remekun is what he is. A reserve big man who can block shots and make a FG once in a while, but does not possess the basketball IQ to play a major role.

    A pretty crappy performance overall, but I'm not going to be alarmed until we actually lose a game. Exhibitions are about evaluating players more than anything else. If Kwamain can shake off the rust, and one of our centers can step up and play quality D, everything else will fall into place.

  16. This poll isn't asking what you'd prefer to watch, it's quantifying the perceived value of the respective achievements. If you don't care about baseball (or if you're a troll who doesn't care about Billiken basketball) then you might as well just sit this out and let the adults talk.

    In my lifetime...

    The Cardinals have made the World Series 6 times (including this year), and have won twice

    while

    The Billikens have made the NCAA tournament 4 times, twice advancing to the second round.

    No way I'm giving up a WS (which only goes to 1 team every year, or nobody in 1994), for something that 64+ teams have achieved every year since the mid-80s. I can see if you're too young to remember the 90s teams why you might feel differently, but it shows lack of confidence that you'd sacrifice a WS champioship for a measly first round tourney exit. Ditto for 2nd round appearances. Been there - done that. There's no reason to think we can't get back to that spot next 2 years.

    I think you have to hold out for at least a Sweet 16 birth - which they've never achieved in the modern (no matter how you define it) era. A Sweet 16 allows you to soak in the national spotlight and swell the bandwagon for the better part of a week.

    On the flip side, you'd have to effing crazy not to trade a WS title for a spot in the Final 4.

    There are few things I wouldn't trade for a Billiken final 4

    That's what the real poll should be...where is the line drawn...would you trade a kidney? An arm? Leg? ********? First born?

  17. By comparison, many believe that Tony LaRussa's best year coaching the Cardinals was the year that we lost Darryl Kile.

    I get what you're saying...but it's unlikely LaRussa could have pulled it off under D1 rules...Chuck Finley would have had to sit out a year before pitching, and it's unlikely Andy Benes would have remained academically eligible after leaving the team.

    Paul Westhead/LMU/Gathers would be the better example.

  18. Winning 20 games is not going to get us $hit. We won 20 in Soderberg's last year and got nothing, then won 23 and didn't get in the NIT. I want back to back 25+ win seasons.

    Here are the actual regular season records against D1 opponents for those seasons.

    2007: 18-12 (8-8 against a relatively soft A10)

    2010: 19-10

    The 2010 team could have easily won

    vs Mo State (w/ KM, Cody)

    @ BG (w/ Cody)

    @ GW (if we hadn't pissed it away)

    vs X (if WR had shot better than 2-9 from the stripe)

    and been 23-6 (13-3, tied for 2nd in the A10 with X and Richmond)

    re: having 3 good players

    More important that having 3 good players, is having ZERO bad players on the floor. That's what separates the good teams from the bad. Good teams put 5 players on the floor who know their roles and can efficiently execute on both ends. The 2010 team had KM, WR, and CE - but would piss away possessions when JJ made ill advised passes to CR.

  19. Yes, 20 wins does not get us into the NCAA unless of course we win A-10 Tourney.

    20 will probably not get us into the NIT, either (if we go to CBI or that other little league tourney, then we can get more than 20, OK, fine, but that is not a solid representation of the season if that happens).

    BIG THING IS, you say, after 11 wins last season, we are going to the NCAA's? WOW.

    We've done it before, we'll do it again.

    (regular season W-L)

    1992-93: 11-16

    1993-94: 22-4 (NCAA Tournament)

    ...

    1996-97: 10-17

    1997-98: 20-9 (NCAA Tournament)

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