The Wiz

From a risk prospective, Ezewiro has already taken the big risk. He did so months ago when he became a 2 time transfer. Turns out that was a 10 % chance of winning. The next gamble is... should he play the next 2 weeks. That success probability starts out at about 70%. Is that a hypothetical guess? No...The judge doesn't grant a TRO unless there is a high probability the players will win the case. That plus the fact that he will probably grant another order for the same reason in a couple of weeks...ie to continue to prevent harm to the players. The judge has implied you have a good chance of winning...the next order or legal proceeding will probably last at least 3 months and therefore will make the whole issue of burning a year of eligibility a moot point as the season will be over by then. The judge's stance is he wants to protect the players...Now that the NCAA has spit in the face of the judge by trying to nullify and over turn his ruling and cause further harm to the players by making it more difficult to play (threatening players with a 1 year burn) the probability of player having a successful out come probably increases to 80%. The players and the schools took a a 10% chance of successful outcome at the start of the season. Why not take the 80% chance of success now. Some may argue ...yeah but at least you don't burn a year of eligibility...True ...instead you burn a year of your life...a strange trade off. To the NCAA....by trying to save themselves they are hastening their death. LET THE KIDS PLAY.

https://businessofcollegesports.com/legal/judge-grants-transferring-college-athletes-immediate-eligibility-but/ Read this and you will see why Ezewiro should play on Sat.

First, before we get started , a note about the TRO. When a player (Ezewiro) doesn't start the season and comes in somewhere in the middle, he usually isn't "game ready". Either his shooting or other basketball skills aren't at 100%. Also his endurance usually isn't at it's peak either and may player fewer minutes than normal. Many times a lesser sub(s) will be able to play at the same level because they are "game ready". For those reasons, (plus a lack of data) the computer says to leave the spread as is (even). In the simulations , the majority of them show a range of ....the Bills winning by 5 ...to the Bills losing by 5. The computer says if the Bills win by more than 5....the overage will be the "Ezewiro effect". General Outlook...The computer thought this was going to be an important game , even before the TRO...The TRO just puts an exclamation point on it. Besides the fact that the game is even...the computer sees the Bills season as even...as though this is a crossroads.. A win and the Bills can start to turn it around , a loss and we will continue to struggle. As for what the "Ezewiro effect" means, the computer says to comeback before the NC St game for an answer. Game Preview....This is the 2nd game in a row that is even...a first for Wiz spreads. When I saw that there was only 1 thing to do ...play the game on the computer...HOF vs La Tech on a neutral court....The answer was not a surprise...They came out even. A note here... just because these 2 teams were both even against the Bills doesn't mean they would be even against each other. Different matchups with evenly matched teams many times come up with different outcomes. But not this time. La Tech comes in at a rating of B vs the Bills who remain at C+. We have seen this before...a mid major...rated ahead of us ...with 1 or 2 dominate players(usually a big in there) who will try to shut us down on the inside and out shoot us from close in. First, lets start with introductions. First, a 3 school player (1 med red shirt in there) big guy (6'10") Mr LAT... Batcho 15th ITN in Rebs and 50th in blks....a good test for Ezewiro or whoever. Next up is Crawford who leads the team in Pts, Assts, 3P shooting and steals. Stop these 2 guys (or slow them down) and we win. Report Card.... Report card... after the last game the card is positive ...2 up ...1 down...point of information on the report card....while the LAT grades may look daunting compared to SLU...please note the LAT SOS is a C- and the Bills SOS is B+...makes a difference. Let's see what things look like.... ...................SLU......................LAT........................SLU.............................LAT .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............C-.......................C+...........................D.................................A+...12th ITN FG%...............D+.....................C..............................D-................................A+..7th ITN 3P%...............A-........................A-...........................C-................................B+ FT%...............B-.........................D+................................................ Reb...............D-..........................A.............................D-................................B- OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....3P%......Def.....PPG Down.........Off......PPG.........Def....none Top 100 In The Nation SLU none LAT Rebs...Batcho...15th Blks........"......"......50th Stls.........Crawford...39th Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills.... Meadows...Dec 10...Questionable for Sat....Back Hughes....Dec 10....Quest for Sat...Unknown injury Parker ....Nov 17....Out indefinitely...fractured foot LAT.... none Keys to the Game......LAT is a good team....In addition to Crawford, Ree can also shoot 3s but doesn't take many shots per game. LAT, though does have some weaknesses. They will turn the ball over if bothered and they are susceptible to steals if we stay on them. In addition, they are not very good at FTs. WWN2D2W...Target slash...47/51/39/73....Hold their top 3 scorers to 32 pts .....No double double for Batcho...Beat them on TOs by 2 and steals by 3. Rebound within 3 of them.....In order to win we need to hold them to 70 pts. Bottom line....If we make our numbers, we can "pound" the Dogs.

What a great game. I don't think you can get much closer to even than that. To me even is when the game is decided on the final possession. ...BINGO The Bills won this game on hard word, great defense and PRIDE (for those who have lost their Wiz code card...double meaning) Bolded statements are from the original post above.... They will focus on 3s.......They did focus on 3s taking 25 3PA....if you check the report card above you will see Hof was 14th ITN in 3P%...we stopped them with a 28%....Thomas(Mr Pride) went 3-12 from the arc (25%) Yes, he had 29 pts but he had to take a LOT of shots to get those points. A weak spot on their team is 3P D...hopefully we can take advantage and sink some from the arc...a weak spot was 3P D and we did take advantage....We shot 45% from the arc. Let's try this a different way....We took 4 more 3P shots than they did....AND made 6 more 3s than Hof. This was the difference in the game. This was the winning stat....3 P shooters were...GJ...5-11 (45%)...Hargrove...3-4(75%)...Dalger 3-8(38%)...Thames 1-1 (100%)...Medley 1-3 (33%). 13-29...45%... A+ shooting. A lot of other things to talk about...TOs were a problem in the 1st half ...10...but only 3 in the 2nd half and none in the final quarter....And even though we lost the TO battle...13-11... we still won the war...Hof pts off TOs..10pts...Bills...18pts. We stopped their big men...40 min totals...4 pts , 5 rebs And finally the much ballyhooed FT shooting was true as they clocked 93% to our weak 67%...but no major damage as they outscored us by only 3 at the charity stripe. In the end we did what we had to do and did it at the right time. Best to end with the bottom line from above.... Bottom line....If we beat HOF , we will have some "Pride"....We did and we do.

Not to be too picky here....But the Bills have a C- in 3P D and a D- in FG%....which makes things actually worse....because we take more 2s than 3s....You will note that PPG D matches our FG% D...both D- If you look over at the Hof D column , you will see the same effect....Hof 3P Def is C- ...FG% is A...PPG Def is B-....again showing the fact that FG% Def is usually more important in PPG Def .

Thought , I would do a final check since it was so close.....Not much difference...Hof by a half pt. Also the computer is picking Hof as a Big Dance team...getting their ticket as the conference winner....You might say they are the "Pride" of the CAA

General Outlook...One pattern that seems to be repeating is that good mid majors (which we have seen a few) have that 1 guy (or 2) that raises them above the pack. You know him ...he is the one who always gives us trouble...he always shows up in the report card section titled Top 100 ITN. Hofstra is one of those teams. So we should know the drill. The good news is that regardless of where we are now or in the future we are never far away from turning things around...we just need "that guy". Game Preview....HOF comes to town with a grade of B...not as good as our last 2 opponents but still a formidable challenge. They also come in with some "Pride" (their team name) Mr. Pride #1 is Thomas ...5th ITN in PPG ...Mr. Pride 2 is Dubar...79th ITN...stop these 2 guys and we win...btw Xav Johnson(SIU) is #1 ITN in PPG. We are the star makers. Meanwhile we remain at C+ . In the better news dept(I can't use good at this point) injuries are down to 3 vs 5 last game. A weak spot on their team is 3P D...hopefully we can take advantage and sink some from the arc. Also HOF is not a great reb team so we should be able to stay close on the boards. As you can see by the title , this game is a coin toss....the computer says good chance for OT. They have 1 Big...6 10 Fritz who has the potential to swat away some shots and if left alone get close to a double double. They have a 7 footer who comes in for a bit to rest him. But as far as HOF is concerned... it is all about the guards. They will play the entire game using 4 guards and a pole. They will focus on 3s and foul shots....We need to play accordingly....Again, stop Thomas and Dubar and we win. Report Card.... ..Report card... after the last game the card is neutral...1 up ...1 down Let's see what things look like.... ...................SLU......................HOF........................SLU.............................HOF .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............C.......................B+.............................D-.................................B- FG%...............D+.....................A-..............................D-................................A 3P%...............B+.......................A+..14th ITN...........C-................................C- FT%...............B-.........................A+..11th ITN................................................ Reb...............D-..........................B-.............................D-................................C- OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....none..........Def.....Reb Down.........Off......none.........Def....PPG Top 100 In The Nation SLU none HOF PPG.....Thomas 5th....Dubar...79th...side note... Xav Johnson (SIU)...1st FT%..........".....".....19th (95.5%)....Carlos...24th (95%) Asst.....Carlos...9th Stls........."....."....75th Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills.... Meadows...Dec 7...Quest....Back Hughes....Dec 7....Quest...Unknown injury Parker ....Nov 17....Out indefinitely...fractured foot HOF.... none Keys to the Game......Stop Thomas and Dubar WWN2D2W...Target slash...47/51/39/73....Hold Thomas and Dubar to 32 pts .....Beat HOF on TOs and steals. Rebound within 2 of them.....In order to win we need to hold them to 74 pts. Bottom line....If we beat HOF , we will have some "Pride"

I maybe a sicko....as well as the people who I am bringing to the game. Come to think of it ...I guess anyone still on the board at this part of the season is a sicko.

I am going to have to disagree with you on the point that the slash lines are too optimistic. First, the target slash................................................................................................................................................................49/51/40/72 But let's look a little deeper into the numbers....in the 2nd half of the game the Bills shot a dismal...............................30/35/14/79 Now let's add 2 more 2s and 1 more 3 to the 2nd half to make the overall target...2nd half with the extra baskets....41/45/28/79 Now let's at what the Bills are actual shooting in 2023/ 2024....not pie in the sky stuff but real.....................................44/47/37/73 The point is that if the Bills had shot at a substandard grade D level and also still below their season average in the 2nd half of that game instead of the poor level grade F....they would have made 2 more 2s and 1 more 3 = 7 more pts and a win. ...which comes back to the original point that the target slash was not an overly optimistic projection but in fact was very doable.

A nice 1st half by the Bills ....Just not enough horses to finish the game. But you've got to like the way they battled. I mentioned in a previous post how the Bills battled USU down to the wire. Some said USU let up which is why the finish was close. I don't happen to believe that. I believe the Bills fought them to the end....while their 16 point lead gradually faded... Nobody can say that in this game, Drake let up for almost the entire game. USU is currently in line for a Big Dance bid. After that game, I said they will be our toughest opponent and by staying close in that game meant we are capable of beating anyone on our remaining schedule. The Drake game is a further confirmation that we can play with anyone on our schedule.....and we did it , even being severely undermanned. A side note...I find it amusing when posters use the word "lock" and "bet the farm" when Vegas shows an inflated spread. It isn't even the posters or the forecasters that are the issue...it is the bettors who believe the posters and forecasters who use the word "lock". ....It is their belief in the word lock that inflates the spread which leads to their doom. Where is JT (not to be confused with TJ) Barnum when you need him. Well, let's see what happened this game....Bolded statements are from the original post above. Target slash...49/51/40/72...Target means this is what we need to do to win....And we far exceed those numbers in the first half (60/ 61/ 57 / 88) and we opened a huge lead... And of course we failed those numbers badly in the 2nd half ( 30/ 35 / 14 / 79 ) and the lead faded away. But let's see what the whole game looked like...Actual slash... 44 / 47 / 36/ 82....What did we need to make the slash?...2 more 2s and 1 more 3...Totals up to 7 pts...that is how close we were....Make the numbers...win the game. In order to win we need to hold them to 73 pts....close but not good enough...every point matters Stop Devries and Brodie...Hold Brodie to under 50% on FG%...We did and that was the key to us leading for most of the game....We held Devries to 10pts (half his normal total) and Brodie to 44% (way below his 70% average )...but because we were under manned lesser players scored a bunch.....Hold DRK's top 2 to 27pts...You will note here I didn't say to hold Devries and Brodie to 27 but their 2 top scorers to 27...Plan B was if Devries and Brodie get into trouble let some else shoot and then pray...that worked tonight ...on another night when the Bills had an extra player or 2 plan B would have faltered. Rebounding should be close this game...Bills win this battle ...on most nights this stat alone would have been enough to put us over the top but there was one last item we need to take care of.... Match them on TOs and steals. ..Steals ...8-7 advantage Bills......almost there.......TOs ...14-10 advantage Drake...fail... This was one of the keys to the game....14 isn't a terrible number but the +4 is damaging....this team cannot afford to lose giveaway battles. Drake had 14 pts on 14 Bills TO( 1pt/ TO)....take away those 4 extra TOs and you subtract 4 Drake pts PLUS the Bills have 4 more chances to score 3 pts. Bottom line...More players and we don't run out of gas and beat them....The takeaway is... we can beat anybody left on our schedule ...particularly if we get some additional players ....through healing or the NCAA.

Looking for 2 tickets to the Hofstra game on Dec 9th.

Well , we have finally made it to #1....We have the most players (5) on the injury report and that doesn't even count the 2 ineligible players. There are a few teams with 4 on the list ( Indiana, Ky, WVU & Ore)...Perhaps would should have a tourney with them...The MIA Classic...of course they would all have to sit out 3 more players to even things up (and wear blind folds)

And therein is the problem...He is not looking at the wide open basket...he is looking for ketchup.

Just released from the official injury report dated Dec. 5....The following players are all listed as questionable for the Drake game.... Hughes...Undisclosed Meadows...Back Hargrove...Knee Jimerson...Ankle This in addition to Parker who is still out indefinitely with a fractured foot. The computer has a robot friend that is learning to bounce a basketball...but he will not be ready to play tomorrow as he tries to swallow the basketball during time outs.

So far on the official injury list...Parker is the only one listed at this time.

The ratings during the 1st 4 years of Ford are still on the board buried in the message board ...they were ok...Under Crews not good. It was during the Crews years that I added the grades of F+ and F- to the system.

Hmm...you probably need an F- team to have a chance...someone like MS Valley St Delta Devils....I show the Bills would win that by 22.

That is why you have to wait for the first 8 games

General Outlook......We have reached S3...Significant Sample Size...8 games. From here on out the computer is mainly using real data. Things should be more "real" from this point forward....not just on my computer but on most forecasting tools. We reach this mile marker at C+ ...slightly above average. Unfortunately, in the big order of things that won't be good enough. B+ gives you a chance to Dance (about 25%) ....B usually means NIT. The Bills can still make some head way but they would have to get up to a B- in the next 4 games to show some promise ...no easy task. As for the A-10, if the the Bills are able to get to B- by the end of OOC play they have a chance to finish top 4...again no easy task. So what have we learned so far. That most mid majors need that "one guy" on the team to compete...that player that puts you over the top...that player who if he gets hurt ...your season is over...SIU is a good example with X.... He was Mr. Saluki as I mentioned in the pregame forecast. But if you look at our 4 losses you will see "that one guy" that puts the team over the top in each of those games. Do we have that ? Some think it was Parker. The computer says it doesn't know if he was the guy because he didn't play 8 games...but he was the leading scorer at the time he went down...so maybe. He will need another 4 games as the "old" Parker or he may need to start over and crank out another 8 games to get up to speed when he comes back. So is there hope going forward....I ran The Bills vs SIU game again (after the computer had a chance to "see the kids play") and of course it was not a 40 pt loss. Assuming we played a normal game and SIU played its regular game...SIU by 9...not great but much better than 39. So we have some work to do. The computer looks at it this way....At this point in time , our toughest game of the season so far and possibly for the year was USU. We will not play a better team than them AND we were close in that game. ...which means that there is nobody coming up who we can't beat as long as we play decent. To paraphrase Jim Carrey...."so you're telling me there's a chance".....Yes Game Preview....Drake comes into the game as a B+ team. The have 2 players we need to control to win... Devries their scorer and Brodie their shooter... 70%. ...The Drake weakness is their defense...Their attitude is go ahead and shoot we will outscore you. If we can get our D going again, we do have the ability to out score them. Won't be easy ...but I am "telling you there's a chance". Report Card.... ..Report card after the last game is negative...2 up ...5 down Let's see what things look like.... ...................SLU......................DRK........................SLU.............................DRK .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............C.......................B+.............................D.................................C+ FG%...............D+........................A-............................D-................................D- 3P%...............B+.........................C-...........................C-................................D+ FT%...............B-...........................A-.................................................................. Reb...............D-..........................D-.............................F+.................................B OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....3P%..........Def.....Reb Down.........Off......PPG...FT%.......Def....PPG...FG%...3P% Top 100 In The Nation SLU FT%...Jimerson...90th...90.9% DRKE PPG...Devries..39th FT%.....Wright.........90th...90.9% FG%.....Brodie...11th...70.2% Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills.... Parker ....Nov 17....Foot...fractured foot...out indefinitely Drake....none Keys to the Game......Stop Devries and Brodie WWN2D2W...Target slash...49/51/40/72....Hold DRK's top 2 to 27pts......Hold Brodie to under 50% on FG%...Match them on TOs and steals. Rebounding should be close this game.....In order to win we need to hold them to 73 pts. Bottom line....Use our defense to keep the Bulldogs on a leash and there will be no treat for Drake.

My computer is looking for 40 more points...Zhang...Bang...he got it ...40 more

Warning... Leave this post immediately if you have a weak basketball heart . The following will be ugly... Blowout definition...A lopsided score where your opponent plays great and you play terrible. Anatomy of a Blowout... Most of the my original post was about stopping Xavier Johnson...Not only did we not stop him at 15pts but he more than doubled it (31pts) . He shot 75%....FROM 3 (6-8)...75% from the arc is tough when you are by yourself in the gym practicing. But it wasn't just about X....Slash time...SIU...66/ 62/ 64...the Golden slash...Majerus use to talk about anytime a slash reached 180 (player or team) it was golden....and then there was the stinky slash...Bills... 43/22/ 58....not good. But it wasn't just about shooting...We got crushed on TOBS....We gave up 2 games worth of TOs...3 games worth of Blocks ... and 2 games worth of Steals AND in each category SIU did nearly 100% better than us....again not good. There were a few good things that happened on the Bills side but when you lose by nearly 40 to a team that just lost by nearly 30 to Ind St...the word good shouldn't come up. Every team has an off night but this was a complete break down...if only the computer could shoot the ball.

You may be onto something. I had SIU by 4, Kenpom had 5 and Vegas had 6.5 not to mention the Weather computer had no rain for today (as I dry off). Yes, I think you are correct , computers suck. Btw, what ever you are typing on...you may want to consider getting rid of it because all computers tend to work the same way....and they are all connected and they all talk to one another. When word gets out about what you have written they won't like it and what happens next won't be pretty. Computers bad , basketball good (sometimes)

Just a quick last minor adjustment... SIU by 3 The updated program is more sensitive than the older version....enough where it can still alter the spread even if neither team has played since the original forecast. It still shows SIU winning (the difference is still home field advantage) BUT by revising the spread the computer has for the first time cut into the home field advantage. The significance of this change is...while the computer thinks the 2 teams are evenly matched on a neutral court the Bills would have a slight edge ...Bills by 1.... ie The Bills are the better team by a hair. The other take away from the data is there is a difference between the USU game and the SIU game.....The USU game showed wild swings in the game which it decided made the game even but very volatile. This game should be more even in a traditional sense...less volatile closer to even throughout the game....a number of lead changes....a more enjoyable overall game experience than the USU game. Bottom line...X marks the spot...stop X = W...This game is winnable.

There are many paths to victory in this game. The computer sees these 2 teams as even...the difference being home field advantage. The Bills need to focus on one path and "slash" their way to a win.

General Outlook......So USU is projecting at 3rd in the MWC and a Big Dance participant...last 4 in ...56% chance to Dance...Why is this under general outlook? USU was hanging on at the end of the game and escaped with a victory...that game was winnable (see post game USU wrap up). It shows that we can play with top teams AND have a chance to win as long as we make some shots. ...particularly 2s. The other point here in discussing USU as it relates to the general outlook is that after the game USU is now an A- team ...They moved up because they beat us by 5. The take away is that USU is better right now than any team in the A10. The fact that we played toe to toe with them right down to the finish bodes well for us in conference play. Game Preview....Both The Bills and SIU are B- teams. The Bills are better on offense and SIU is better on D. ...It's pretty close on the stats ...the spread is pretty much home field advantage. Xavier Johnson is Mr. Saluki. I wouldn't say he is the whole team...but he just about is. Game should be close....if we make shots (especially 2s) , we win this game. Report Card.... ..Report card after the last game is negative...1 up ...3 down Let's see what things look like.... ...................SLU......................SIU........................SLU.............................SIU .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............C+.......................C.............................C-..................................B FG%...............D+........................C............................D+................................C- 3P%...............A-.........................B.............................B+................................A- FT%...............B...........................C+.................................................................. Reb...............D-..........................D+.............................F.................................B+ OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....FT%..........Def.....none Down.........Off......PPG...Reb.......Def....PPG...FG%...3P% Top 100 In The Nation SLU FT%...Jimerson...72nd...92.7% SIU PPG...Johnson...16th Asst... " "........82nd FT%......." " ......86th...92.2% Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills.... Parker ....Nov 17....Foot...fractured foot...out indefinitely SIU... Sharp....G...Foot..Nov 6....out till mid Dec Hornecker...C....Ankle...Nov 6...out indefinitely Keys to the Game......Stop Johnson and don't foul him...see top 100...The Bills need to make some 2s....play 40 min...play like we did against USU in the final 4 min...in fact if we put up the same game slash we did against USU( a much better team on off & def than SIU) we win. WWN2D2W...Target slash...47/51/40/75....Hold Johnson to 15 pts...Beat them on TOs and steals to make up for any rebound deficit. Rebounding should be closer this game.....Hold them to 70 pts. Bottom line....If we play a full 40 min and don't dog it , we can send the Salukis back to the kennel.