The Wiz

I am showing The Bills are giving up an average of 76 pts /gm, not 80. So if you think with some marginal defensive improvement The Bills could knock off 3 points that makes it 73 pts/gm. SLU is currently averaging 73.5 pts on offense. It sounds like you think with some marginal improvement on defense, we could start winning some games. I agree with you.

I understand you've been under the weather. When you are feeling better you may wish to come back and reread some of these posts. I was not trying to tell you or other posters things you already know about the TO problem. The point I was trying to make was that by providing the data and simulation runs, it show how just a small change in TO results (4-7 per team) can result in a huge point swing(19-21pts) in a game. And these changes are not extraordinary . Asking the Bills to hold TOs to 12/gm is not an unreasonable request since not only are they averaging that for the season but until recently they were in the 10-11 range. And also to have The Bills be able to force 12 TOs against GM was very doable. GM has not only been averaging 12 TOs/ game (5 against The Bills) but they have done so against weak teams ( SOS = D-..... Teams that are much weaker than The Bills). TOs are damaging where ever they occur....beginning , middle or end of the game. In this game as well as the LOY game they came fast and frequent in the first half....digging quick holes. Sloppy play, bad passes and protecting the ball are fixable problems. Again, this is just one way the computer saw the GM game as winnable. Hope you are feeling better soon....sending healing energy your way and The Bills way so you may both get back to your better selves.

I understand what you are saying. The computer looks at the extra 11 TOs as not just 11 extra points for GM but 11 lost opportunities for The Bills ( more pts for The Bills and less for GM)...The data shows that SLU and GM are equal in season TOs...around 12/gm. In a game simulation with TOs equal at the normal 12 a piece and everything else pretty much the same....there is 21 pt swing and SLU wins by 9. The computer stays with the conclusion that this was a winnable game. Computer bottom line...Failure was caused by human error.

Well we came in pretty much at the point spread. The slash was almost right on....48/35/73 vs the target of 48/40 /73....just one 3P shot off....it was pretty much a winnable game. But again the same 2 factors that beat us in the Loy game did it again in this one.....FTs and TOs 1...FTs...We lost the Loy game shooting a horrific 42%....This game we hit the target exactly...73%...BUT...GM had an EXTRA 23 shots and as a result made an extra 21 pts.....GM 27-34 vs the Bills 8-11 .... GM had an extra 14 shots over their average which resulted in an extra 12pts...final game spread ...12 pts. 2. TOs ...The Bills for the second consecutive game had 16 TOs....Over 15 /gm is considered an F-....Also, a general rule of thumb is that any time you have 10 or more TOs than your opponent it is an automatic loss...today's spread was 16-5....Pts off TOs 21-10...11 extra pts for GM...plus when you consider the lost opportunities for the Bills to score on those extra 11 TOs it is well above 11pts....again a game changer. Bottom line...Took too many fouls and turned over the ball too much...another potential win slipped away.

Thanks for the update...He was missing from my list do to a technicality. My qualifiers are tougher than the NCAA which tends to be more inclusive than elite. My list has 7 qualifiers ...all related to mins and pace of mins....e.g. on pace for 300 min /season...120 min pace for home games ...etc. The technicality is ...one of the qualifiers is 21 mins/ last 2 weeks. Of course The Bills didn't play for 2 weeks. Had we played a few days ago , I am showing he would have come in at 96th ITN....once again the difference in rankings has to do with more stringent qualifiers.

General Outlook.... The Loy game was painful because had we just shot our season FT average we probably would have won the game. But as Coach K use to say after a loss....next game. Unfortunately, it doesn't get any easier. The good news is we hung onto our grade of C AND any games we win going forward will boost our GPA quickly.....the bad news is we are trending down. Can we turn the ship around? Parker would be a plus but it doesn't look like he will be ready for this game. If we cut down the TOs and just shoot average and play a little defense we can win any game on any given night. Let's take a look at what Sat has in store for us. Game Preview....The Patriots enter the game with a B+ and listed as the 2nd best team in the A-10 on The Wiz scale. They play 4 guards and a forward. One of their guards K Hall is 17th ITN in reb and 6th in Dbl-Dbl tied with 7'4" Zach Edey of Purdue and 7'2 Hunter Dickinson of KU. How can a guard do that? ....because he is 6'7 and 230 . And of course, he isn't their only threat. Kelly is their "big man" (6' 9") and is shooting 57% from the field while Maddox is their 3P threat. So are we doomed ? ....not yet....While they have great numbers on Off and Def there are some weak spots for the Bills to exploit. GM doesn't play 3P def (good time for the Bills to get hot from the arc) and they have a tendency to TO the ball if bothered ( a good time for the Bills to protect the ball and go after the other team). Perhaps the secret to this game is for the Bills to come out at the tip off and play as if there were 2 min left on the clock and we are down 3 AND do that for the entire game.. Play with a sense of urgency. Report Card.... Report card... The report card is showing negative with no categories up and 3 down. Offense is average - FT% fell a full grade....Def is limping ...badly. ....................SLU.............GM..........SLU...........................GM ..............................OFF..........................................DEF............. PPG...............C-................C.................D-............................A- FG%...............C.................A-................F+...........................A+..9th ITN 3P%...............A-................A-.................D+..........................D+ FT%...............C..................B..................................................... Reb...............D-.................B...................D..............................A- OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....none....Def....none Down.........Off......FT%....Def....FG%...3P% Top 100 In The Nation SLU none GM Reb....Hall....17th FT%...Maddox...19th(93.8%) Dbl-Dbl...Hall...6th Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills.... Parker ....Nov 17....Out indefinitely...fractured foot....no more recent official updates GM... Dinkins....G...Nov 6.....Back....Out indefinitely Keys to the Game.......Stop Hall or at least slow him down. Protect the ball...pressure them ... make some 3s & FTs...play with a sense of urgency. WWN2D2W...Target slash...48/40/73....Hold Hall, Maddox and Kelly to 34 pts....Beat GM on TOs...Stay within 3 on Rebs...Hold GM to 72 pts Bottom line....If we close the Hall, we can win this game, by George.

I hear what you are saying but Watson still had an exceptional night...He usually shoots 2 of 7 when he is having a bad night or heavily contested ...when he is " on" or open he makes 3 of 7. ...5 of 7 might be difficult for him in a gym by himself in practice. Again, the point is we just needed to shoot Billiken average numbers and we win no matter what Watson does.

I will try to simplify this. First , The Bills did not look ready to play a t the opening buzzer. They were out of sync....Like a first game of the season.....especially the first half of the game. Let's look at the key factors.... Watson had a career night...that 1 game that far exceeds...he came in averaging 9.7 pts /gm...tonight 24pts....His slash coming into tonight was a very weak...39/31/63....Tonight he was 70/ 71/ 56...not even close to a sustainable level. Throw in 6 rebs and 4 steals and you have a career night. BUT..... Even with all that... this game was winnable...How? By The Bills playing just an average Bills game...Let's look at the numbers. 1...TOs...especially the first half...The out of sync Bills had 11 TOs....That is what they average for a full game...Let me repeat that ...The Bills had an entire game of TOs in 1 half....Hard to come back from that.... Again, let's simplify...points off TOs...Bills 14...Loy 21...the difference is 7 pts...difference in game pts ...7...the difference in the game 2..Slash....Projected (which is close to the Bills season slash)...46/39/73...actual slash...42/35/42... we shot the same from FT line as we did from the field...never a good thing...time to break it down. Here is what The Bills needed to do to make the projected average season slash....1 more 2/ 2 more 3s/ and 6 more FTs ... all that equals...2+6+6=14pts. What this means is that even with Watson having a career night AND a dismal TO stat the Bills still could have won by 7 with an average shooting night. Making some FTs alone probably would have saved the day....42% is embarrassing. Bottom line ...If the Bills just shoot average tonight ...they win.... even with a career Dez night plus butter fingers.

Not being sarcastic. I ran the numbers to show what would happen if you just changed a stat by moving it way out of the normal area.....you can't always fix the situation by moving another stat to try and balance it out. There is a point of no return on data.

This just isn't true. You can make up numbers but you can't make up facts. I agree that 3 pt shooting is important within the context of the other stats. But raising one number way up and trying to balance it with another especially when the starting numbers are not realistic...is... well......just not realistic. Raising TOs to 30 will cut down on the number of 3PA which in turn will cut down the number of 3PM. Let's look at an example...I could only do this after the computer stopped making fun of me..."Would you also like to know how many MPGs a Rambler gets" joked the machine. Here is what the simulation looked like if the Bills gave up 30 TOs to Loy. In the normal game tomorrow, we are forecast to win by 2....74-72. Thirty TO's would change the score with Loy-C winning the game 92-56. Then we fix things by having the Bills shoot 85% from the arc....remember we are now getting a lot fewer shots because of the TOs....and BINGO...we have 4 more 3PM at 85%....and lose the game 92-68. Bottom line....simple math isn't simple and simple logic doesn't win games. I prefer to use real data when doing simulations.

It doesn't change anything on my end....The computer still sees "out indefinitely" and goes with that. Even if Parker , were to make a surprise appearance he wouldn't play significant minutes...The computer would see coming in as another sub . It will be that way till he returns and gets up to speed. Bottom line...Still Bills by 2

Sorry I wasn't clear enough ....I have changed "them" to Loy -C....we still win by 2

General Outlook....And we begin conference play.... As I mentioned in the preconference forecast, parity will be a major factor in a lot of A-10 games. For the Bills, this is what we will have to do to finish 4th or higher in the league. We need to win a lot of close games, starting with this one. It also means we will have to win some games on the road. No simple task...but possible. The good news is that if we start winning games and beating spreads we can improve our ranking quickly. Fourth place is not just about getting a double bye...but it is level we need to be at to compete in post season. I asked the computer what team is at the center of the D1 universe...the exact middle ....the true average bball team in D1...The answer as we head into our first conference game is...The Bills. The projected fourth place A-10 team right now is a B+.... a long road to go ...but with parity plus 2 additions(Ezewiro and Parker), it is possible. Game Preview....Loy-Chi comes to town with a B-....SOS ...D-....The Bills have an overall grade of C with an SOS of B-. The Ramblers have played a relatively easy schedule , especially compared to the BIlls so their record isn't real meaningful. We are a better shooting 3P team and a better shooting FT team plus they turnover prone. ...BUT...there are some warnings ...they have 3 guys who can shoot from the arc(40%+)...they have a FT shooter who is shooting 95% from the line.... they have a center who is a fly swatter...top 10 in blks......they play defense....the question is ...will we? If we do... they will TO the ball over....if we do they will miss from the arc...if we do... we will win Report Card.... Report card... The report card is showing negative with 3 categories up and 4 down. Offense is passable...the defense needs to pick it up a bit. ....................SLU...........Loy-Ch..........SLU.....................Loy-Ch ..............................OFF..........................................DEF............. PPG...............C-................C-................D-.............................B FG%...............C.................B..................D-.............................A- 3P%...............A-................B..................C...............................D- FT%...............B..................D+..................................................... Reb...............D-.................C+................D...............................B+ OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....FT%...FG%......Def.....Reb Down.........Off......PPG...3P%.......Def....PPG...FG% Top 100 In The Nation SLU none Loy-Ch Ast....Norris....35th Blks....Rubin....9th FT%...Norris...12th(95%) 3P%....Edwards...67th (48%) Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills.... Magassa ...Dec 20 ...out for the season....eligibility Parker ....Nov 17....Out indefinitely...fractured foot....no more recent official updates Loy-Chi.... none Keys to the Game.......Play D and make some shots. ...Avoid Rubin their shot blocker....Their weaknesses are 3P D and FT shooting...which are our strengths....Don't foul Norris their FT shooter and get some good looks from the arc....Make the slash WWN2D2W...Target slash...46/39/73....Try to stay within 3 rebs....Beat them in TOs by 3....Guard Norris , Dawson and Edwards , all 40%+ from the arc....Hold Loy-C to 70 pts....hold Watson and Alston to 21 pts...in a pinch Alston is their go to guy... Bottom line....If the Bills play their game, Loyola will Ramble out of town with a loss.

General outlook The outlook for the A-10 is parity as it is with D-1 schools overall. Parity means a move to the middle ...good schools aren't as good and bad schools aren't as bad....with differences between good and bad narrowing. You can see that in the A-10....only 1 good team and 1 bad team (no not us). Parity in the A-10 today means 10 of the 15 teams are around grade B ...ie little difference between them. There will be a number of "upsets" in conference play this year. While teams and fans will be surprised, part of what will be happening will be parity at work. The reasons for parity increasing is the NIL and easier transferring. This is a trend that not only will continue but will become more pronounced as NIL monies increase and transferring becomes even easier. The word "rebuild" has new meaning. Ten years ago, rebuild was a process of 3-4 years of adding players and developing them into a winning team. Now that can be done in a year using NIL and transfer. One only has to look at the current NET to see the difference...Fla Atl...6th in NET....Indiana St...23rd and ahead of NC and KY...James Madison ...30th and ahead of Nova and Mich St and even Liberty at 48th is ahead of 12-0 Ole Miss. If The Bills step up their NIL game they could take a big step up ...fast. A-10 outlook In this year's A-10 forecast , I have changed from a regular report card ...to a super report card. Besides showing my own program , I have also included 3 other important and popular ranking services for comparisons....The NET, Vegas and KenPom. I will assume that all readers here know what the NET and KenPom are. The Vegas ranking is a compilation of all the sports books in Vegas using their Base. The Base is what the true ranking of a team is before any betting is done...the Base that Vegas uses as a starting point...once betting starts the numbers skew. As you all know , I like to use grades on everything....not only because it is more college like but it helps deal with parity. Grades put teams that are similar in the the same category. For instance when you see a team that is #225 vs #168 you say big difference. Yet to me, it is a C- vs a C...a minor difference ...Or a #35 team vs a #17 team...you might think not much difference there but it is an A- vs an A+... a bigger difference between those teams than the 225 vs 168 ones. So then, to make this all work for comparisons sake, I have converted all the different rankings...KenPom, Vegas and The NET to a grade system to evaluate the upcoming A-10 conference. The Super Report Card.....Enjoy....We will discuss afterwards... ...................The Wiz...........The NET...........KenPom.....Vegas 1. Day..............A......................A......................A-................B+ 2. St. J............B+....................B+....................B+................B 3. GM..............B+....................B+.....................B................B- 4. Duq.............B+.....................B+....................B................B+ 5. VCU.............B.......................B......................B.................B 6. St. B.............B......................B+....................B+...............B 7. Rich..............B.......................B......................B.................B- 8. UMass.........B.......................B......................B.................B- 9. GW...............B-.....................B-.....................C+..............C+ 10. Dav.............B-.....................B-.....................B-...............B- 11. Loy..............B-......................C+....................C+.............B 12. LaS............C+......................C+.....................C..............C 13. SLU............C........................C-......................C-............C+ 14. Fham.........C-.......................D+......................C-...........C+ 15. RI................D+......................D+.......................D+.........C It is interesting to note that of the 3 rankings , I am the closest to the NET...The Wiz... 10 matches (including 9 0f the top 10)....KenPom ...9 matches ...Vegas 3 matches...Of course, Vegas just uses their rankings as a starting point before betting. While the A-10 is a small sample size , it seems to hold on the larger D1 model....The Wiz 251 matches....KP....222....Vegas 72. The NET itself is setup as though every day is selection Sunday...no forecasting ...let's just pick teams today. It is not an accident that my model is close to the NET...that's the way I planned it. I would argue that I had the NET before the NCAA. In those days when the NCAA used the RPI ...strange things use to happen to get teams Dancing. So I modified the RPI into an adjusted RPI to forecast not only games but the NCAA picks. The NCAA then came up with a new system...The NET...which looked a lot like my adjusted RPI...I made some further adjustments and have a model that can forecast games and Dance bids.....It will never be exact ....there is a purposeful 15-20% fudge factor in the NET....that factor is the human /subjective factor.....You know in case you need to get a favorite team in (Power 5). As for the super report card, there is good news and bad news.....The bad news is we are showing as a PIG team right now. The good news is that with Parker coming back and Ezewiro playing a larger part of the 2nd half of the season that even a small boost would be huge in parity A-10. In addition, since we are the underdog in most games going forward... wins and beating the spreads will help us make up ground. Do you remember all those years when we were winning games and people said it was hard to move up in the rankings because the A10 teams weren't that good .....Not true this year...win and we make up ground. Keys to the conference...The computer doesn't see us winning the A10 but it does see us with a chance to make it to 4th which gives us a chance to Dance. Assuming the normal... we win some we weren't supposed to and lose some we should have won and those games even out ....I asked the computer how do we get to 4th place? First, we need to get to a grade of B which the computer thinks is doable. It thinks that 4th place will be taken by a B team. It sees 4 key games for The Bills.... Win GM away (Jan 6)....win Duq away (Feb 20) and then at least split with St. J starting with a win on Jan 10 at home....So the next 3 games are important....The Loy game to get ourselves together and then the GM and St. J which are key matchups. Bottom line....If we can stay healthy and avoid shooting 8% from the arc with no 10 TO differential games, we can do some damage in the A10 and give ourselves a chance to Dance....... Protect the ball And make some 3s Get a rebound And we'll win with ease.

Just a couple of notes.... For those that are wondering how the players are selected for the poem...it is based on total minutes played.....from most to least. A nod to Thames who just missed making the reindeer team by 5 min. I am sure he will make the story next year. Also , who would have thought those would have been our top 6 players in that order....btw, Jimerson was the only player to return to the story this year...TJ didn't have enough minutes last year to make it...What a difference a year makes. Finally, let us remember... why we are all here....to see The Bills... have a successful year. Peace on Earth and to all Bills fans.

'Twas the night before Christmas when all through the Fetz Nothing was stirring, not even the nets; The banners were hung from the rafters with care, In hopes that The Wiz would soon be there; The fans were nestled all snug in their seats; With visions of Bills wins, while they munched on their treats. And Mama in her sweatshirt, and I in Bills blue Had just settled in to watch a basket or two. When on Compton and 40 there arose such a clatter, I sprang from my seat to see what was the matter. Away to the window I flew like a flash And then flung open the door, in a very mad dash The moon on the breast of the new fallen snow, Gave the luster of mid-day to objects below; When, what to my wondering eyes should appear,, But a basketball team as quick as reindeer, With a little old driver, so lively and all biz, I knew in a moment it must be The Wiz. More rapid than eagles his coursers they came, And he whistled and shouted and called them by name: Now! Jimerson, now! Hargrove, now! Dalger, oh my lord, On! Medley, on! Meadows, on! Hughes, and Coach Ford; To the top of Gate A ! To the top of the wall ! " Now dash away ! Dash away ! Dash away all !" As dry leaves that before the wild hurricane fly, When they meet with an obstacle, mount to the sky; So up to the arena top the coursers they flew, With a sleigh load of stats and The Wiz too: And then in a twinkling I heard on the floor The bouncing of b-balls making baskets galore. As I drew in my head, and was turning around, Down Section 103 The Wiz came with a bound: He was dressed all in Bills gear, from his head to his toe, And his clothes were all blue, he was ready to go; A bundle of spreads was flung on his back, And he looked like a peddler just opening his pack: His eyes- how they twinkled ! His dimples: how merry, His cheeks were like roses, his nose like a cherry; His droll little mouth was drawn up like a bow, And the beard on his chin was as white as the snow; The stump of a pipe he held tight in his teeth, And the smoke it encircled his head like a wreath. He had a broad face, and a little round belly That shook when he laughed, like a bowl full of jelly: He was chubby and plump, just like a Billiken, And I laughed when I saw him and thought Gee Williken; A wink of his eye and a twist of his head Soon gave me to know that The Wiz had a spread. He spoke not a word, but went straight to his work, And calculated point spreads, ; then turned with a jerk, And laying his finger aside of his nose And giving a nod,… BAM …up the concourse he rose. He sprang in the Chaifetz , to his team gave a whistle, And away they all flew like the down of a thistle: But I heard him exclaim, as he shouted out clear-- BILLIKENS WILL WIN, IT WILL BE BETTER NEXT YEAR To all that follow the Billiken Biz Merry Christmas to all , best wishes from The Wiz

Unfortunately, you hate to nail it when it is a double digit loss. The sad thing is this was a very winnable game....it would have been a quality win on the road. Why do I say this was a winnable game. Because we didn't have to do anything special. Had we just played our normal game ....make Billiken season averages in 2 areas ...we win. 1. TOs... 18-6 ..A difference of 12...When you have a 10 spread on TOs that is usually an automatic loss. This was compounded by a horrible stat of 29-2 on pts off . Had we just made our season average of 11 TOs, NC St has 12 less pts. Hmm...12 pts ...that sounds familiar. 2. 3P shooting....8%( 1-12)...had we made our season average of 39%....we have 4 more 3s = 12pts ...12 again If we do both 1 and 2 (not an unusual feat) we win by ...wait for it ...12 pts...the trifecta of 12s. Of course we were winning with a little over 12 min left. Bottom line....Hickory , dickory, dock....The Bills ran up the clock....The clock struck 12 , The Bills ran down and NC State turned the game into a lock.

I checked the data again today and 1 standard deviation is showing NC St. winning by 6-15 pts...with the final outcome around 10-12 pts.....Also there was a footnote that said if The Bills are trailing by 6 with a minute left...give the ball to Hargrove...over and over and over....

What a great game against LaT....For more info see the post game wrap up in the LaT spread thread...also the 5 second thread for a virtual reality second by second "what if" finish. General Outlook....Last game, I mentioned we were at a turning point or crossroads and that was before the TRO was announced. It seems like we have taken the first step in the turnaround. Doesn't mean that it will be smooth sailing from here but over the coming games things should get better. The report card below is a good example ....we were up in 5 categories and down in none. However we still have a ways to go before we are respectable especially on defense....One step at a time. Game Preview....Another tough one in NC St.....currently at an A-...this won't be the toughest team we play all year but this game may be the toughest...playing a quality opponent on the road. The NET shows them as an NIT team ...I have them as a borderline team...bordering between NIT and the Dance. Bottom line ...after coming off a loss, this is a big game for the Wolfpack to keep their Dance dreams alive. As for the Bills, we slipped down a bit to a grade of C. How can this be?...We just won 2 games over fairly tough opponents.. The reason is we did what we were supposed to do...the games were even and we played them even, so theoretically we should move sideways....but if a few teams behind you do well they can jump over you and knock you back a little. That's what happened here. The good news is almost all the teams we have remaining on the schedule will have higher grades than us . If we keep winning , we can move up the ladder easier. As you can see by the spread it won't be easy. But as I have said before , there is no one on the schedule that we can't beat. NC St is not the best team we have played (that would be USU). But because we will be playing on the Wolfpack court this makes this game as tough as USU. If you look at the report card below, we are fairly close to NC St. They play 4 guards and a forward...we have seen this before ....3 guards and the forward will play most of the game. Burns is their big guy...6'9" & 275..he will be a load. The other 2 to watch are Taylor and Horne...they are their 3 point shooters. Stop those 3 and we win. Report Card.... Report card... after the last game the card is positive ...5 up ...0 down...Going forward, I will add SOS to the report card...If a team gets straight A's and has only played bottom feeders , it may not be as good as straight B's from a team that has played top teams. SOS....NC St...B....The Bills... B- ...................SLU......................NC St........................SLU............................NC St .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............C........................B...........................D........................................C FG%...............C-.....................C+..........................D.......................................C 3P%...............A+..16th ITN......B-...........................C.....................................D- FT%...............B-.........................C+................................................ Reb...............D-..........................C..........................D-...................................D- OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....PPG...FG%...3P%......Def.....FG%...3P% Down.........Off......none.........................Def....none Top 100 In The Nation SLU none NC St none Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills.... Meadows...Dec 16...Questionable for Sat....Back Parker ....Nov 17....Out indefinitely...fractured foot NC St.... none Keys to the Game......Turnovers...we have been pretty good about protecting the ball...we need to force some turnovers. Control their big 3 ...Taylor and Horne from the arc and Burns from around the boards. We need to make shots especially the bunnies and layups. WWN2D2W...Target slash...48/51/40/73....Keep Taylor and Horne under 40% from the arc. Beat them on the boards...this is not a typo ... The numbers show it is possible....Beat them on TOs...Hold them to 71 pts....Hold their top 3 scorers to 34 pts. Bottom line....If we can shut them down from the arc and if Ezewiro can handle Burns, we can send the Wolfpack howling.

There is general strategy and then there is this specific situation. I think in this specific situation the computer thought it was OK to foul. Had you asked it before the game or in general, I think it would have said not too foul. But in this case, it has seen 39+ min of play and is making a different decision. I think the computer weighs heavily on the better shooting team (us)....and who will be the key players in the final 7 sec and/or OT. We are the better shooting team. In the final 5 sec LaT hasn't crossed half court yet and Newman(25/0/50) is the wrong guy with the ball. He would cross half court looking for Batcho or Crawford at the 3 second mark...he might call a time out or not....either way it would be a pass and shoot in one motion to Bat or Craw at the buzzer...it would have to be a perfect pass and a difficult shot....likely outcome... OT. By fouling you go from almost certain OT to 24% chance loss ...38% OT....38% win. In OT , the computer looks at each team's "go to" guys....Batcho and Crawford ...and Jimerson and Hargrove....They all were the leading scorers and the shot takers in the game...for LaT their pair looked like this ...52/40/67...for the Bills, GJ and TJ...62/60/80...advantage Bills...so probably a Bills win in OT. I agree with you on the foul...I am sure it was unintended...all you had to do was watch GJs reaction and you knew he was upset about the play. But the Bills won both in the simulation and in real life....it was meant to be.

I think the foul was the right thing to do. If we don't foul them they have a 54% chance to score in the final 7 sec(the time they received the ball)...either by FT or basket with no time left and we lose. By stopping the clock with the foul we have a 56% chance to win. There was a good chance Neuman might miss one of those 2 FTs as he was shooting 50%(2-4) from the charity stripe. In the simulation, where we don't foul and they miss the shot at the buzzer, we go to OT. In OT , the computer still shows an even game. In the simulation with 1 min left in OT ,.....the game is tied Hargrove drives to the basket through heavy traffic ....whistle foul ...count the basket. FT is good...Bills by 3 ....LaT brings the ball up and we steal the ball (1st TO for LaT). We go into the weave and LaT fouls us . GJ sinks 2 ....we lead by 5 and with seconds left LaT scores an uncontested layup at the buzzer and the Bills win by 3 in OT....Chances of winning in OT for the Bills ....54%. Some may say giving up 2 points and depending on a long shot to win is not the right thing to do. It is definitely unconventional ...and a long shot to win....BUT the Bills had 18 long shots in the game and made 56% (higher than their 2P%). You have to go with what's working and the Bills did . While this is a play you would never draw up ...the computer liked the play and the narrow odds favoring the Bills.

No....73 is the FT stat. A 4 part slash reads like this...FG%/ 2P%/ 3P%/ FT%

Post Game Review One of the best Bills games ever....Not to mention one of the best finishes of all time. Tip o' the cap to Hargrove who in the final 28 seconds of the game put the Billiken team on his back and carried them to victory by scoring 11 points in the final 28 seconds of a game. I know of no D1 game where 1 player scores that many points in the final 28 seconds to win a game. Amazing. I saw the Bills beat number 2 ranked Louisville ...this game was right up there with that one in intensity and excitement. Also , a 2nd tip o' the cap to Ezewiro making his debut ... 17 pts( 6-9 FG%). ..5 rebs(battling under the boards against the big bodies) and did all that in only 19 min. Does anyone remember any posts on the board that said ...what good is a player that averages 4 ppg on a losing , horrible GT team? As for the "Ezwiro effect"....Let me repost a comment I made in the "2023-24 season" thread yesterday before the game..... I think some posters are missing the point on the "Ezewiro effect"....It is not just about the points and the rebounds but the "X" factor. Players will go back to their more normal positions. There will be more opportunities to score ...for everyone. There will be more depth. We will no longer be as predictable. In other words , he makes the team better by just being in the mix. The concept of 4+1=6. For those having trouble grasping this concept, you have company as the computer too has this issue. But as outcomes and stats change the computer will adapt and "see" what is going on. Hopefully so will our fan base. Of course, after the game the computer thinks it's right...."see it was an even game" (meaning there was little "Ezewiro effect") but I argue back saying that even though we didn't increase the spread by a meaningful amount that doesn't mean their wasn't an "Ezewiro effect" not just because of his stats but because of the intangibles I mentioned above. After some back and forth the computer now agrees with me.....knowing that I can unplug it at any time. Hmm....don't you wish you could do that with some posters. Time to see what happened in the game... Some strange stuff in this game......we shot better from 3 than from 2.... LaT had NO TOs in the game ....something that hasn't happened in D1 in 14 years. We had 10 TOs which is an A+ score but in this game was a disaster....usually if you are on the downside of a 10 TO spread that spells automatic loss...usually, but not yesterday as we had the TJ point machine. LaT had 12 pts off TOs...TJ nearly wiped that out in 28 sec. So what was the key to winning...the SLASH....here was the projected slash... make it and we win the game (WWN2D2W)...47/51/39/73...and here is the actual....54/53/56/73.....Very nice line....As you have noticed , earlier this season I added 2P shooting to the slash....not something you normally see in a box score. I did so because when we started losing , one of the main reasons was missed 2 pt shots...bunnies and layups. The last 2 games against good teams that issue seems to be resolving itself. This bodes well for the team going forward. Shooting percentages ebb and flow...but you have got to make the bunnies and layups to win. And finally from the original post above.....The computer thought this was going to be an important game , even before the TRO...The TRO just puts an exclamation point on it. Besides the fact that the game is even...the computer sees the Bills season as even...as though this is a crossroads.. A win and the Bills can start to turn it around , a loss and we will continue to struggle. .This statement was true before the game and it is even more true afterwards. Bottom line....There were forecasting gurus that said a little over a week ago we wouldn't win anymore games until the end of January. I think I will stick to my computer and pass on the pundits.

I think some posters are missing the point on the "Ezewiro effect"....It is not just about the points and the rebounds but the "X" factor. Players will go back to their more normal positions. There will be more opportunities to score ...for everyone. There will be more depth. We will no longer be as predictable. In other words , he makes the team better by just being in the mix. The concept of 4+1=6. For those having trouble grasping this concept, you have company as the computer too has this issue. But as outcomes and stats change the computer will adapt and "see" what is going on. Hopefully so will our fan base. In my original post , the computer refused to change the spread if Ezewiro was added to the roster. It did say that for this game there was a 70% chance that the game would fall within a +5 to -5 range. It said if we win by more than 5 then it would attribute any overage to an "Ezewiro effect". Anything less than a 5 pt win would be considered little effect. Of course this is just one game. For instance if you have a series of forecasted close games and we win them all then the computer will again sense something different is happening. And finally , if we start to exceed spreads consistently, it will indicate a new trend. We will see.

I guess the NCAA read my post above ....I think the key line that got them was about how "they spit in the face of the judge" The whole point of the TRO was to do no harm to the players and in 24 hours the NCAA did harm. After wiping themselves out legally they have decided to do the right thing.... Who is in charge at the NCAA....Goofy or Pluto?