The Wiz

My numbers show that if Rich wins its final 2 games AND reaches the conference finals with Day...then both teams will Dance regardless of who wins that final game. Of course, this is a computer prediction that is driven by data. The NCAA still has the power to over rule the computers (mine and The NET) to "fix things" and "make things right" It would depend on who was up against Rich on Selection Sunday....If it was Long Beach St....then RICH is in. If it is St. John's...then the answer to RICH will be ...."We are so sorry"

Yes...It thinks it would help if he is wearing jersey #6 when he is taunting the Day coach.

One is D-....so there is still time.

I think if you read through my post ....I spend a bit of time on injuries mentioning that Parker and Ezewiro could be missing. But at this point, they are not listed as MIA. I also say to check back for injury updates....Right now , we are only officially missing Meadows and Curcic. Over the season we have 2 others that are gone ....Dalgar and Magassa...I think given that we lost by 5 in Dayton...9 is a good number at this point. While I don't have a program that tracks injuries...I can give you some injury highlights.... Mizzou fans would be happy to tell you about their 5 injuries...8-21...0-16 SEC Portland ( the team that calls us the Pelicans) I think wins the prize...6 players out....11-20...5-11 Neb...5 players out ...21-9...11-8...4th in the B10.... Hou....where every injury is big ....3 players out (playing 10-18 mpg)...26-3 ...13-3 1st in B12...1st overall in The Net In the A10...GW and Mason both with 4 injuries. A side note ...one of the 3 missing players in Mem is Dandridge...Ineligible ...I think he did us a favor by not selecting us. Bottom line....It is not always about who has the most injuries...It is about depth and who on your team is hurt. Can you imagine Dayton missing Holmes....They would be a mid level 500 A-10 team without him.

From my above post..... And as we all know , this is the NCAA ....so there is no deep thinking...just follow the money.

I wanted to write this piece to point out the differences between my model and The NET. It is true my model is based on The Net but I was using a NET type model before the NCAA was(while they were still using RPI). It can be argued that they too have always used a NET model type vehicle(RPI plus other factors) but just didn't call it that. In any case, the purpose of the NCAA process in the past was to obscure what they were doing....cloak it in a shroud of mystery. The NET makes things more transparent...it reveals more than the RPI BUT the NCAA is quick to point out that the T in NET stands for Tool ...that The NET is not the final decision maker ...it is part of the process ...thus creating a cloud again. A side note here...there is just something right about using the word Tool in the same sentence as NCAA. Back on topic... takes us to the "fudge factor". This is the area (about 15-20% of the the teams in the gray area ) where the NCAA gets to over rule the technology and "fix" its mistakes. The chance to "make things right". Let's look at some examples of how this works. First, let's take a look at the MVC. Not only because it is good example of how things work but because we have added interest due to their coaches and possible portal players. The big 3 in the MVC right now are Ind St , Drake and Bradley. ISU has a 29 NET...Drake a 48 and Bradley a 60. Now let's go back a couple of weeks....ISU in the low 30s ...Drake around 45 and Bradley around 50. At that time, I had ISU as a 55% chance to Dance and Drake and Bradley as NIT players at 76% and Bradley at 64%. Now for comparison let's add 1 more team...St. John's at 44 NET a couple of weeks ago...right there in the mix of the MVC teams. Yet, I had them 61% chance to Dance (they are currently at 70% today) even though they had the worst record (just above 500) when compared to the 3 MVC schools. But when we move into the NCAA Twilight Zone here is what happens. Location....MVC...Des Moines. Terre Haute and Peoria....St. John's...NYC....winner St. J Conf......MVC....Big East....winner BE/ St. J Coaches....MVC ....up and coming bright stars....St. J...HOF legend...winner St. J TV market....this is a bit different than location...it is more about live bodies ...TV is about virtual bodies...again the winner is St. J Power 6 vs everyone else....St. J again. This part of the selection committee is run by Juan Bid. There are other factors besides the above but you get the idea. This is how the committee "fixes" things to make them "right". A Drake and Bradley may wind up in the "so sorry" area. You MVC teams have done well...you have a good record...you probably should make it ...but we are.... "so sorry". Btw, you can substitute the A10 or any other non P6 conference or teams where ever I have used MVC or MVC teams. So there are 2 main differences between my computer and The NET. The NET is just a current model. It assumes that every day it posts is Selection Sunday. The first difference between my computer and NET is that mine is based on the real Selection Sunday and all that goes on between now and then. To quote Wayne Gretsky...I don't go where the puck is...I go where it is going to be. Difference 2.....My computer figures in the Fudge Factor on Selection Sunday. Obviously, this is subjective, but even so, many of these factors are known and figuring out how humans think is one thing the computer is getting better at. And as we all know , this is the NCAA ....so there is no deep thinking...just follow the money. One more observation...When the NET starts in Dec every year , my computer and The NET are not close. But as the year goes along, we start to come together. We are much closer now and will be closer on Selection Sunday as the NCAA finally starts to get near the puck.

Post season A-10.....NCAA...Day 7th seed (dn)...........NIT chances.......Rich...90%(up & getting close).....Loy...70%(up)...UMass...56%(new)...St. B. ...54%(unch)...VCU...50% (dn) Game Preview......... We Remain at C.....The teams listed above are all B+...except Day which is an A. As you can see below in the report card....The offense is OK but the defense is ...well what can I say...I think Ford said it best after the RI game...."We play hard on defense...we are just not very good at it." Meanwhile, Day has one of the best defense ITN. ...YET...we only lost to them by 5pt at their place. We lost rebs by 2 ....TOs down by 2...and missed the FG% by less than 2%....and we lost to a team that will probably be dancing ...by only 5pts at their place. Of course, we still have to face Holmes who single handedly crushed us. Pts..29...Rebs...14...Blks...4...Stls...2 and yet we lost to them by only 5 at their place. The point being... that game was very winnable. So the question now is ...we are coming home ....why has the point spread gone up after a 5 pt loss? Well, Dalgar and Meadows won't be playing this game...so that is 12pts and 5 rebs that need to be replaced....which is doable. BUT there is also the possibility that Ezewiro and Parker could be questionable for the Tues game....thus the larger spread. If those 2 are available , we could be back in the running. Watch this space for injury updates. Of course there is still the issue of putting a throttle on Holmes ...if we can do that we have a chance to win. Let's look at the card.... Report Card.... The Card is up.....2 up 1 dn... 2 Off and 1 Def .................SLU..............Day................SLU......................Day ...........................OFF........................................DEF.......... PPG...........C+................C.....................F........................A FG%...........C..................A-...................D-......................A- 3P%...........A.................A+..7th ITN.....F+......................A- FT%...........B+................B-.......................... Reb...........D...................D....................D+.......................B OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....FG%...3P%......Def...none Down.........Off....none....Def....3P% Top 100 In The Nation SLU Min /gm...Jimerson ...61st ...up Day PPG...Holmes...31st Rebs....."...."......88th Stls......."....."....19th 3P%.....Brea....12th Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills... Meadows....2/20...back...out indefinitely Curcic....2/29...foot...out for season Watch this space in the coming days as it is a fluid situation Day.. None...How come these other teams never have injuries or at least less than we do? Keys to the Game.......Stop Holmes...No more injuries than those listed in the injury section. WWN2D2W...Target slash--47/38/75.....Beat them on FG%......Beat them on TOs...and in Rebs...Stop Holmes...Hold him to 20 pts and 9 rebs. Bottom line.........Ground Holmes and take the Flyers down.

Right now , RICH is closing in on a second A-10 bid...Richmond is currently at 87% for an NIT bid...If it reaches 95% it will switch over to a Dance chance. Here is how the computer sees a best chance possible for a 2 bid A-10....RICH wins the next 2 to close out the season then meets Day in the A10 final of the tourney.....At that point BOTH, teams make it. Loy has an outside chance at this point for a ticket....but there will be no 3rd bid

OK...It's time to get out The Wiz's Manual For Winning.... You need to get to page 5 to win. Page 1....Win the TO battle...check...12-5 Bills Page 2 ..Win one of the next 2 categories Page 3....Rebounds...no check ....35-28 RI ...go to next page Page 4...FG%....check...54.1% to 51.8%..The Bills...go to next page Page 5....BILLS WIN Let's look at the original post...bolded phrases from the 1st post above.... What would you say if I told you we had a chance to play a team that had a bad defense...as bad or worse than ours. Welcome to RI. I would say we are looking at a high scoring game....Looks about right Of course, as in previous games , this one will hinge on TOs. The computer thinks we will (or should) win the TO matchup because they are worse than us in turning the ball over. (C- to D) On opponent TOs ...even our lowly F+ beats their F- (14th WITN)... This too looks good Their main 2 guys are Green (outside) and House (closer in). We need to stop them ...This was a split decision...We stopped House ...He shot only 25% from the field but not Green 54% Injuries will play a factor in this game...This proved true in more ways than one....Fuch is questionable ...if he doesn't play they lose a chunk of their inside game. For us Parker is still questionable. He would be a valuable asset given their weak shooting defense...They both played and about the same minutes. Fuch 18...Parker 16....but Parker was a difference maker...16 pts (a point / min) vs 8 pts for Fuch. Target slash--47/38/75...Actual slash 54/52/81 ...a 187 slash...usually 180+ is a win Bottom line...A lot of players stepped up when the going got tough and it brought us a win

You will note that the spread has been updated. In reality, it has been bouncing back and forth for the last few days ...mainly between 2 and 4 pts and probably should read RI by 2-4 pts. Each team has a key player questionable ...Parker for us and Fuch for them. If neither or both play the spread will stay in the 2-4 pt range. But if only 1 plays the spread could skew in their team's favor. The last reading is that they will both be out and the game will be a close one.

Post season A-10.....NCAA...Day 6th seed (unch)....NIT chances.......Rich...87%(up).....Loy...58%(dn)...VCU...56%(new)...St. B. ...54%(new) Game Preview.........This coming game might be a future PIG match up. What would you say if I told you we had a chance to play a team that had a bad defense...as bad or worse than ours. Welcome to RI. I would say we are looking at a high scoring game. Of course, as in previous games , this one will hinge on TOs. The computer thinks we will (or should) win the TO matchup because they are worse than us in turning the ball over. (C- to D) On opponent TOs ...even our lowly F+ beats their F- (14th WITN). So why is the spread showing we lose. Winning the TO battle evens up the game...The next 2 factors after TOs are FG% and Rebs. We need to win at least 1 of these categories...the computer show us losing both. One strange stat I don't usually report on is opponent FT "defense". As you will see below , RI is a poor FT shooting team(F- ). But on FT "defense" they are 4th ITN. Either the baskets are crooked in RI or their FT funk spreads to other teams. Their main 2 guys are Green (outside) and House (closer in). We need to stop them . Injuries will play a factor in this game...Fuch is questionable ...if he doesn't play they lose a chunk of their inside game. For us Parker is still questionable. He would be a valuable asset given their weak shooting defense. This game is very winnable but we have our work cut out to do. Let's look at the card.... Report Card.... The Card is dn.....3 dn... (2 Off ) and 1 (Def) .................SLU..............RI................SLU......................RI ...........................OFF........................................DEF.......... PPG...........C+................C-..................F........................F+ FG%...........C-..................B...................D-......................D- 3P%...........A-.................B...................D-......................F+ FT%...........B+.................F-..10th WITN........................... Reb...........D...................B....................D+......................C+ OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....none......Def...none Down.........Off....FG%...3P%....Def....3P% Top 100 In The Nation SLU Min /gm...Jimerson ...62nd ...dn RI 3P%...Green....15th Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills... Parker...2/28 ...leg...questionable Meadows....2/20...back...out indefinitely RI.. Fuch...2/28...ankle...questionable Bilau...1/18....knee....out indefinitely Keys to the Game.......Stop Green and house...Make some shots ...especially the bunnies...grab some rebs WWN2D2W...Target slash--47/38/75.....Beat them on FG%......Beat them in TOs...Match them in Rebs...Keep their top 2 scorers to 27pts Bottom line.........Let's not be sheepish on Sat...let's bring it to them

Let' s do the easy stuff first...Bolded statements from original post above..... Lose the TO battle and you have an 80% chance to lose...we lost it 12-10....Target TOs for the Bills ...8 or match them...missed the target That is pretty much all you need to know....but if you are a glutton for punishment ...here is the rest.... Target slash--46/38/75...another miss...not only that but Rich had a 188 slash...52/58/78...usually a 180+ is an auto win Stop King...Keep their top 2 scorers to 25pts...Not only did we not stop King...but King had 27 pts by himself. no open shots for Rich...There were too many One bright spot for the Bills is that the computer also thinks we will out rebound them... we did but it wasn't enough with the other numbers being off They will come out early and try to rollover us. If we can hold them off, we can make some hay when they start subbing. ...They did and we did but we couldn't sustain. Their main man is King...he will play nearly the whole game (38 min)... he can shoot inside and out ...take away the open shots and you can keep him under control....He did what he was supposed to do and we couldn't control him. Finally, Rich has a good starting 5....not much production after that. ...This turned out to be right on....as their top 5 scored 73 of the 80 pts Bottom line...This game went pretty much as the computer expected. The spread had an extra 10 pts because RICH played above it's head and we played below average.. Some positive notes....Jimerson became the all time 3P scorer (3PM) passing Claggett. Ezewiro had probably his best game of the season with a dou-dou...17-11

I don't show that either team would be strong enough to get an at large bid at this time....It is possible both teams could get an at large bid if they won out the rest of the season and both made it to the conference final and lost. Right now, I am showing Rich with a 76% chance and Drake with a 66% chance to make the NIT. You need to be in the 90%+ to have a real chance to Dance. It is the ghost of "Juan Bid" haunting the Mid Majors. I will continue to show post season chances in the spread threads. If you want to check on a team outside the A-10 , let me know.

To avoid a few more questions...let's do the whole thing now.... In a simulation.... Drake... Finishes 3rd in the A-10 behind Day and Rich Ind St...Finishes 2nd in the A-10 behind Day The Bills....Finishes 11th out of 12 in the MVC

Update on the spread....Rich now by 4

Wow... 18 and 20 pt Rich forecasters....I am guessing on Tues, Vegas will give The Bills 5.5 pts. Sounds like some cash will be flowing over to the Richmond side of the betting board.

That is correct ...the data dump came in this morning. I am sure they will be on the NIT list again as long as they beat RI on Wed.

Post season A-10.....NCAA...Day 6th seed (unch)....NIT chances.......Rich...76%(up).....Loy...80%(up) General Outlook........Well, the good news is that we have made it back to C...We are again an average team in D1. We have an improving offense and a stabilizing but still poor defense. Opp PPG an important measure of defense is currently at F. Every game we give up 81+ pts we trend toward the very bottom (F-). Overall defense is D-. On the flip side overall offense is at B-. If we had an average defense we would be a top 4 team instead of a bottom feeder. Moving up to C on defense is not that far away.. Meanwhile, we are still locked in the PIG pen. As for the A10 tourney...the computer thinks we have a decent chance to win the 1st game and then because of parity and no homefield advantage most of the tourney games will be close. The Bills need to take the games one at a time and focus on matching TOs . Let's take a look at the game.... Game Preview....This Rich team reminds me of VCU...OK offense and one of the top defenses ITN. ...13th ITN in Def FG% with more A's sprinkled about. The biggie though is ...wait for it...TOs. They are 3rd ITN in TOs....They protect the ball very well. The interesting thing is they are only average in forcing TOs. The computer thinks if we can give up no more than 8 TOs we will have a chance to win. We have done this before. One bright spot for the Bills is that the computer also thinks we will out rebound them...if we do, that would be a step toward victory. Finally, Rich has a good starting 5....not much production after that. They will come out early and try to rollover us. If we can hold them off, we can make some hay when they start subbing. Their main man is King...he will play nearly the whole game... he can shoot inside and out ...take away the open shots and you can keep him under control. Let's look at the card.... Report Card.... The Card is up.....3 up (3 Off ) and 1 dn (Def) .................SLU............Rich................SLU...................Rich ...........................OFF........................................DEF.......... PPG...........C+................C-..................F........................A FG%...........C..................B...................D-.......................A+...13th ITN 3P%...........A.................B+...................D........................A- FT%...........B+................B............................. Reb...........D...................D-....................D+......................F+ OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....PPG...3P%...FT%.....Def...none Down.........Off....none......Def....FG% Top 100 In The Nation SLU Min /gm...Jimerson ...55th ...dn Rich TOs...Team...3rd ITN PPG...King...60th FG%...Bailey...44th Stls....Bailey...69th 2P%...Bailey...20th MPG....King...67th Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills... Parker...2/24 ...leg...questionable Meadows....2/20...back...out indefinitely Rich.. Roche...2/21...knee...out for the season Keys to the Game.......Stop King...Protect the ball...no open shots for Rich...speed up the game...make the slash WWN2D2W...Target slash--46/38/75.....Target TOs for the Bills ...8 or match them...Out rebound Rich...Keep their top 2 scorers to 25pts Bottom line.........Match them in TOs and we might get RICH quick.

The computer liked his chances as he came into the contest at 99% height and weight but in the end the home field advantage turned into a distraction. He had a chance to win because he had no turnovers (or sit ups). He did have a steal though as he grabbed the autographed game ball from me.

He got off to a good start and then became hypnotized by the crowd, lights and noise and froze....just staring at the crowd. He did win for cutest baby. Larry Hughes Sr came over to him after the race and said that was my number ( the Bills onesie he was wearing had Hughes old number on it)...He took pix with Hughes and The Billiken. He also went over to the broadcast table and high fived Rammer and Earl. I would say he had a pretty good time plus he is undefeated as a Bills fan.

Thanks...30 years of being a season ticket holder and Bills Club member...also had a baby race entrant...Little Wiz

This game made me go ...hmmm With 0.7 sec left in the game ...Bills by 3...and Bills ball....I am thinking I have nailed the spread. GW's only chance to tie the game is to steal the inbounds pass. If they don't ...game is over. If they foul...game is over even we miss the FTs , the ball is at the other end of the court with GW having no chance to win. So the strategy is to steal ...no foul...and yet they foul ...BEFORE the ball is thrown in and they pick out The Bills best FT shooter to foul...they could fouled anybody but they fouled Jimerson our best FT shooter BEFORE the clock started, assuring a loss. It didn't make sense to me. And then I remembered....The Vegas spread was 4.5 pts. Jimerson sinks 2 and The Bills win by 5 with the clock running out. It was like a message was being sent from Nevada...You may have the better computer but we make the rules...And what are the rules? Rule number 1...Vegas rules. I am sure the above paragraph is just a giant coincidence...but it still makes you pause and go...hmmm. In any case , a good win for the Bills....any win for The Bills at this point is a good win. This game answered the predicted question for 2 of the worst defenses in D1....What happens when 2 teams play no defense...186 pts are scored in a close game. I think the deciding factor in this game was...wait for it...TOs. This is like a horror movie...The Return of the Turnover. This time there was a happy ending as we beat them 10-7 in TOs. And if anyone still has a doubt that TOs are a major factor in Bills games...the computer shows that had the Bills given up 4 more TOs there would have been a 9 pt swing in the game. This should have been an easy win ...ie an even bigger spread as GW was missing 2 key starters...their 2nd and 3rd scorers. But that was canceled out when Parker turned up lame today and was scratched. Officially listed as a leg injury and questionable for the Richmond game on the 28th. Overall...a nice balanced scoring attack with 6 players in double figures (and one with 9)...we beat the slash which is always a good sign...51/50/82...This was a RM target slash... 180+. Bottom line.... Things could be worse, we could be GW who has just lost 10 in a row and has given up more points than we have in the last 10 games. When you are at the bottom there is no where to go but up. And finally, I will close with a familiar statement....if we keep the TOs even there is no team we can't beat on our schedule going forward.

Here is an injury update... On the original report up top, there were some conflicting injury reports. The air has cleared and this is how they now line up. SLU...Meadows has been downgraded from Questionable to Out Indefinitely ...Back injury GW...2 starters for GW now officially listed as Questionable for our game....Buchanan(2nd leading scorer) and Johnson(3rd leading scorer) ...Buchanan listed as unknown issue....Johnson listed as unknown ailment....If 1 or both are missing, it will be a significant blow to GW and could increase the spread in favor of The Bills.

Here is a write up I did about a month ago...To update...ISU is now 23-5 and 14-3 in conf (tied with Drake for 1st)...For those interested in the Drake coach, please note that ISU beat Drake. Below is an article on Josh Schertz...Indiana St coach . He has been a coach for 16 years. He took over ISU 3 yrs ago. They had 11 wins his 1st year...23 wins last year and this year 18-3 (9-1 MVC) with 10 games to go plus MVC tourney. They are in 1st place in MVC and have a 76% chance to Dance. He spent 13 years at Div 2 all at 1 school ...LMU. He went to 10 NCAA tournaments in 13 years...His win percentage ... .831. But when you click on the link below ...read what other college coaches have to say about him. Here are the important numbers...He just signed a 5 year contract before this season . He makes $365,000/yr...His buyout is $250,000. Now before some of you pooh pooh ISU and the MVC, remember that if The Bills were playing in the MVC this year we would be ranked 11th out of 12 teams with a coach who was making nearly 7 times the amount that Schertz is making. He can coach , do X's & O's , recruit , is good not only on the court but off the court and is a stand up guy. We could double his salary and still have $1.8 million left for NIL. Read the article below and discuss.... https://gosycamores.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster/coaches/josh-schertz/875

The computer has already reviewed the situation ..... It selects....Schertz He checks all the boxes.