The Wiz
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Posts posted by The Wiz
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No, you said he had "few" all-stars. The Cubs did have a few regular all-stars with Sandberg and Dawson during that time. How many all-stars did other teams average during that time (I don't know the answer there)? Keep in mind that baseball's all-star selection is probably worse than any other sport considering the fans vote the starters in. Also, you said that he was "always" in the playoffs. Whitey made it in 3 times while he was in St. Louis.
Hmm...It looks like you missed the point of the post (actually you missed a few points)....which was to compare 2 coaches who get the most out of their players. I would love to discuss the Cards with you and the inequities of all star ballots and why you think the Cubs were equal to the Cards....but I won't because that is another point you have missed. This is a Billiken board. And finally you missed the main point of the post which was to discuss KPom view of RM being a great coach. I don't believe I saw your opinion of RM as a coach. Now that would be on point for this thread.
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I have a group of 5 heading over. Will try to buy tickets online tomorrow if no one has a set together or right near each other.
In case I go the stubhub route, what section(s) do the SLU tickets appear to be in?
Section 116
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As I recall Whitey had an all-star or two. George Brett, Hal McRae, Frank White, Darrel Porter, Amos Otis, Freddie Patek, Ozzie Smith, Vince Coleman, Willie McGee, Todd Worrell, Jack Clark, Tommy Herr, Joaquin Andujar, Bruce Sutter, George Hendrick, Lonnie Smith, Pedro Guerrero, etc.
Didn't say he didn't have any all stars....the Redbirds just weren't heavily represented in the All Star games during the Whitey years. During his 11 year tenure Whitey had 29 all stars or about 2.6 /year. During that same period the Cubs had 28 All Stars . So with just 1 more All Star over an 11 year period the Cards were much more successful. And that was my point. Whitey could mold teams....Just like RM molds teams. Both got the most out of their players.
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+1. ...high praise from KPom
RM reminds me of Whitey Herzog. A coach who had few all stars over the years but was always in the playoffs...always competitive by finding players he could mold into his system. The whole was always greater than the sum of the parts.....same with RM. A tip of the cap to Coach for a great season.
I wrote in my original Memphis spread post within hours after the bracket releases that this was ouir worst draw. For those thar were following my posts in Feb you may remember me posting about being favored in all the remaining games in the season. I was not concerned about X in our home game as I had us winning that handily. As Feb wore on, I started to include that we would win the first round of the Big Dance before most even had us dancing. I came to that conclusion when I realized the only teams that could beat us would be 4 seeds or lower....an unlikely scenario as we were projecting as a 7-10 seed. The Selection committee crossed things up by downgrading 2 teams (Memphis and us) to 8 and 9.... In the end this game is the equivalent of a 2nd round game (field of 32) where a 4 and 5 seed meet up.
Those in the basketball world who are in the know realize this and will focus on this game more than an ordinary 8/9 seed. Unfortunately, it will take a win over MSU to finally bring us the notriety we deserve...no easy task. At this point, we just need to take it "won" game at a time. Then we can make the rest of the world Bill-lievers.
Go Bills.
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Wiz,
For fun I filled out one of my two brackets using your to 25 as gospel. I picked the higher rated team every time except twice. I picked the Bills over Memphis for obvious reasons, and I picked Wisc. over Syracuse because Wisc. was only one spot below Sycr and I figured the Cuse would drop at least two spots with the lost of Melo. When neither team was in your Top 25, I chose the higher seeded team. This left me with a Final Four of Carolina, Mich. St., Kent & Ohio State. The Buckeyes beat the Wildcats in championship game.
I'll let you know if I win my league.
I made that same change...Wisc over Syr. Usually a player going down will not make a big difference ...as in Syr first 2 games....Asheville and K St. ...but against Wisc the Fab would have made a difference. Other changes I made ...I have the Bills over Mem (the RM factor in a close game) but I have them going down against MSU...but even that game will be close ...MSU by 6 at this point...plus short preparation time ...plus RM's record isn't as good in the second game of the Dance. And finally Izzo is a better coach then the Memphis kid. My upset pick was Lville going all the way. They are a momentum team. Their numbers in the 2nd half are completely different than the first half of the season. Using the hot second half of the season numbers, I was able because of favorable bracket matchups to project them all the way out. We will see. It definitely is an upset pick.
Other interesting items ...Tex over Cinn ,,,not an upset on my rankings but definitely a bracketbuster. A minor bump is Ala over Creighton. One change you may want to make if you can get to your pool quick in the AM is Tem over USF (Cal lost the play in game). Most bracket pools will still let you make changes till the tourney starts. After the Tem win ...I have Mich over Tem. Another bracketbuster I have is NC St over SD St. This one is close but I think NC St is the better team. My last buster is Purdue over St. Mary's. St M can not match Purdue either in schedule or conference strength..
Poor Belmont...a very good team that was way underseeded and got a bad draw in Gtown. They may have been able to do some damage had they received a 6 or 7 seed but this will not be their year..
Good luck to everyone in their pools.
Go Bills
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Anyone know how strict security is about switching sections at an NCAA game? Have tickets in the corner by the entrance to the court for all games but want to migrate to the SLU section for our game.
In the early rounds it is usually easier to move around during the second game of the day. Unfortunately we will be first. What will happen is there will be open seats during our game ...you will move up and sometime during the game the MSU fans will show and you will have to move. In the secnd game MSU fans will take Memphis and our seats from the fans who don't want to stick around. In addition, MSU fans will try to buy tickets off the loser for the Sun.game. This will also be a good strategy for SLU fans. After we beat Memphis, you can buy a Sunday ticket from a Mem fan if you don't already have one. Make sure you watch where they were seating so you can get the good seats..
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I, too have an extra ticket in the Bills section for $85. I have been told it is a center section. PM me if interested. Memphis fans need not apply.
My extra tic has been taken
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I, too have an extra ticket in the Bills section for $85. I have been told it is a center section. PM me if interested. Memphis fans need not apply.
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Is there usually a score prediction thread started on this board before games?
OK...just a few mop up notes here
I see our visitor from Memphis became confused over the numbers in an earlier post. No big deal. It happens to people who "use" numbers rather than understand them. Also as predicted..."well what about our 2 point loss" No, it is now about your 2 point loss to UTEP. It is about your one point loss. The one point (the main point) of my post.
I have a question for the board....Is there a score prediction thread??Possibly someone can do a search on this and let me know. What an excellent idea kamaro kid. See your time here has not been a waste. You have done some good. We will miss seeing you after Friday. Maybe if you all can overpower the CUSA again next year our paths will cross once more.
Nothing more to see here ....time to move on.
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Come on man. Tell me you are being sarcastic please....
Neither of our conferences are world beaters and I think we can both agree.
But lets look at the numbers you just put up. You listed some of our losses. Our best loss (if there is such a thing) was RPI 13 Michigan in Maui. Our worst loss was RPI 148 UTEP. We lost 8 games by 44 total points. Our best RPI win was 21 Southern Miss.
SLU, on the other hand had their best loss against RPI 19 Temple. Your worst loss was RPI 256 Rhode Island. You guys lost a total of 7 games by 45 points. You guys had your best RPI win against 41 Xavier (who Memphis also beat).
I'm not trying to say that we'll win handily or even win at all....but to say we "aren't actually very good" is almost a slap in the face of your own team because, on paper, we are better.
OK I am going to commit a violation. I am going to feed a troll. It is for a good cause. It is for the defense of math and statistics and innocent numbers everywhere that are being taken advantage of by numeric predators.
First off let me say to camaro....you know nothing of what you speak. I see the numbers you regurgitate in your posts and then come up with the conclusion of ..."on paper we are better" By what measure ?? Do you know what went into those numbers you quoted? I see an RPI loss of 148. Why wasn't that number 149? Do you know what's going on? What do the numbers really mean? I can't explain in 1 paragraph the entire theory of basketball statistics. But let me point out a few things to you. With all those excellent wins you had and low RPI's we were ahead of you nearly the entire season. The Tigers 4 conf wins by big margins at the end of the season against average opponents allowed you to tie us. (see Top 25 poll thread 3/5/12). Then three more powerhouse wins against UTEP, UCF and Marshall (3 teams not dancing) coupled with our loss against X( a dancing team) allows you to gain a 1 pt edge on us. Clearly you are "better on paper"...But wait there's more. You talk about the last 10 games as though you know what the numbers mean. Let's really dissect it. Let's look at Feb25...the RI game....a very weak team we played on the road after a 6 game winning streak against tough teams (well at least tougher teams than the ones in the CUSA.) Even though we played poorly we still only lost by 2. During that game a player(to remain unnamed) took a 3 point shot which rimmed the basket in and out. At the time it seemed insignificant because we were leading RI as we had been all game. But it was significant...at least as far as calculating the spread on this game or as you would say.....the "better on paper"factor. If that shot which could have gone either way falls then all the numbers change and because they are so close....we then would be "the better team on paper" And if you say ...well what about our 2 point loss....it wouldn't matter...the key was that it was RI ...a much more damaging loss than anything on your schedule. So your entire argument comes down to 1 shot for the ENTIRE Billiken season out of hundreds. So forget about your "good" loss to Mich or your bad loss to UTEP....none of that matters. If that shot against RI falls we are the better team. We would be favored on Fri. If you still want to believe you are the better team on paper that is fine. As long as you realize your chance of winning is about the same as getting heads on a coin toss. Dominant teams don't depend on coin tosses or being better on paper.
Troll feeding time is now concluded.
Go Bills
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The plus side of the tough matchup is that it is drawing attention from the analysts. If we pull an upset (in their eyes) by knocking off Memphis, there will be national buzz for our matchup against Mich. State. Huge exposure for the program. The game against Memphis is monstrous.
If we win, I would not consider it an upset. But you are correct ...some would and yes this game is getting a lot of attention. In my original thread I referred to this game as the worst possible matchup. I was speaking as a Bills fan. As a basketball fan this is a great game so in that regard the Selection committee was successful....two highly ranked evenly matched teams. I think that this game is not only the best 8/9 matchup but also one of the best games in the 1st round. Certainly, watching NC destroy Vermont won't be very entertaining. In fact, it wasn't very ebtertaining watching SLU wipe them out. But if the Bills can pull out a win in a closely matched game, then the spotlight will be on us. And if we face MSU they will be favored but they won't be a heavy favorite. So there is a fair possibility of dancing for a bit.
For now....Friday Focus = Win
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3.4% to Final Four!. 1 in 200 shot at national title. There is never going to be an easy draw but Memphis in the first round was a tough one. According to Pomeroy, Memphis has a better chance than 11 of the 12 5-7 seeds.
Pomeroy's comments: "The committee played a cruel joke by matching up Memphis and St. Louis. The person I feel sorry for is Rick Majerus. Yes, the Billikens return the majority of their roster next season, but I have a hunch things came together this season in a way that won’t be duplicated again at SLU. With this draw, he has a one-in-eight shot at seeing the second weekend."
Wiz could also do a "log 5"/Bill James analysis with his system.
I prefer a Modified Pythagorean Theorem for Basketball using a 13.91 exponent (the Morey Model). I may have to drop it though because MB says it is worthless. I guess he knows better than those who developed it....Bill James, Stats Inc, Daryl Morey and MIT. Nobody compares with Mom.
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I think this would be a great addition. They are having an off year (B-) ...they are similar to Duq. this year.
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Thanks for the heads up. They're giving LIU a lot of love vs. Michigan State. I'll say LIU is the best 16 seed team I've ever seen. Still won't beat the Spartans.
LIU good for a 16th seed ( C- ) but no match for MSU...Wagner was a much better team in their conference.....MSU by 20 over LIU
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-i want witnesses to the race because i bet mom kicked your butt
I know for a fact that RM could beat MB and Mom in the 100.
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It isn't like you are out there all alone either Wiz. According to ESPN's BPI ratings SLU and Memphis were the teams that got screwed the biggest when it comes to seeding.
Yep....the Memphis coach said in an interview yesterday (before the brackets were released) they were expecting a 5 seed. Memphis and the Bills were the 2 highest teams in most computer models that were not ranked in the polls.
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Sticking to your guns!
So we are # 16?
So we should have been a 4 seed?
I don't think you are using the CTU computers, there, bud.
I said we were about 50th when we were 4-3 in A-10, then we got hot, I said 25-35, then we lost to RI, I said 30-40, give or take. (quick, look it up bizzle boy, spend 8 hrs)
The NCAA made us a 9 seed, which means 33-36. I win.
Look, I hope you are right and we beat Memphis then Michigan State (though I think some of the Michigan State front line also play DL for the New York Giants).
If so, then we are 16th, you are correct. We shall see.
(Oh, yes. a predictive computer model based upon margin of victory. Well, I beat mom (82) in the 100M dash by 1:41, 1:57, and 1:55, I have myself 16th in the world, tied with 2 Jamaicans.)
Hmm.......
I think my computer is having trouble calculating the "multiple dynamics" This may be caused by the "Commie conspiracy" supported by 2 Jamaican losers. MB by 100 (meters).
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Tiger's just dont understand your system Wiz!
I don't think they offer a probability course at Memphis. Either that or the BBQ dulls their brain.
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For those looking for some additional bracket info...here you go
1 Oh St
2 Ky
3 Mich St\
4 Kan
5 NC
6 Syr
7 Wisc
8 Mizzou
9 Wich St
10 Ind
11 Mem
12 Duke
13 Gtwn
14 Baylor
15 Fla
16 THE BILLS
17 Marq
18 N Mex
19 Lville
20 Vandy
21 Fla St
22 Kan St
23 Belmont
24 Tex
25 tie Cal
25 tie Va
As you can see, we are 16th and Memphis is 11th yet the game spread is only a point ....which means teams are tightly packed. There is only a spread of about 1 1/2 points between #11 and #18. These teams will become bracket busters when they play one another.
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Wiz, does your program tell you what Memphis might do well that would give us trouble? Or where their advantage lies?
My program has no way of factoring in the RM effect....ie when the Bills have 4 days to prepare their win % goes up plus an incredible first round Big Dance win %.
What it does know how to figure is... if the Bills do what they do and Memphis does what they do... this will be an extremely close game. This game will be decided by someone who gets a hot hand at the right time. Maybe Loe, Ellis or KM hit a few 3's. If you start to hear "bang count the basket" it will be "game over".
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This was probably our worst 1st round draw. I had us winning the first game in almost every other scenario. With that said RM has a great record in first round games plus I like that Friday gives us an extra day to prepare...another RM +.....extra time usually means better chance of winning.
Some have belittled the Memphis 7 game season ending winning streak because they are CUSA teams. CUSA is definitely not as good as A-10 but the Memphis strength lies in not who they beat but how they beat them. In order to give us some perspective, I have created a chart not only grading their final 5 opponents (they played 2 of them twice) but also the margin of victory and who their opponent is most like in the A-10. This isn't perfect but will at least give you a rough idea of how to compare what they have done recently.
E. Carolina....C+ (Charlotte)....beat them by 23
Marshall.........B...(UMass)........beat them by 20 & 26
UCF...............B- (Richmond)....beat them by 19 & 21
Tulsa..............B (UMass).........beat them by 12
UTEP..............C+ (Charlotte)....beat them by 18
Bottomline ...Unimpressive teams but impressive wins.
Memphis has trailed us all season. It was only during the final 7 games that they just managed to edge us out. This game is so close that fan support may be the difference. ....I am in. See you in Columbus
Go Bills
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As Wiz said, this is not a great draw for us. However, playing on Friday is a HUGE benefit. Another day for Rick and staff to prepare is worth at least a couple of points, from my experience.
Agreed....RM has a great record in first round games and really anytime he has at least a few days to prepare.
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Worst possible 1st roound draw for the Bills. One of the only teams that would be favored against us in the first round. The 2 highest computer ranked teams that were not ranked in the polls. I will post the exact spread tomorrow but I am sure I will have Memphis favored in a very close game.
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Xavier was hot today shooting 53% from the 2 and 45% from the 3. If they shoot their average 45 and 35...they have 4 less baskets and 1 less 3 and we win. When a team gets hot like X did which happens once in a while you lose. Because it is a rare occurrence , we beat them 2 out of 3.
What time is everyone leaving?
in Billikens.com Main Board
Posted
Hmm ...a bit testy......sounds like a post from someone whose team didn't make it and now has nothing to do but post on a dancing team's board where no one cares what you think.