The Wiz

There are some who have taken some shots this year that deserve some credit after last night's game. 1. Crews....I have not been a fan of his this season. I think he has done an adequate job given the circumstances he was thrown into. But last night he deserves credit for the win. He rose to the occasion in a big game.....similar to an average player who plays great in a high pressure game or makes the winning shot. Crews had a winning shot last night. I hope he takes that momentum and intensity into future games. 2. The fans....You know the story...they don't show...they don't cheer...they are not going to put on the T-shirts etc. Last night the fans all showed up and created a high level of excitement. ...and for the most part wore white. Where is the Butler poster who said the "Fetz advantage" won't make any difference. As it was pointed out to the fan ....it will make a huge difference...to us ...and it did. Not only did Butler "underestimate" our team but they underestimated our fans. Now that the fans have "tasted" Billiken power, hopefully they will keep coming back. 3. Post-Dispatch and media....Everyone loves a winner and the media is no different. We have taken our shots at the P-D in the past....many rightfully deserved. But today they led with the Bills story on the front page....including a super photo gallery. Most of the rest of the media had very good coverage too....both pre and post game. Hopefully we have their attention and they will continue to follow us in a meaningful way. We have the momentum...we need to keep it going.

With last night's win the Bills moved up to A-. The significance of this is that approximately 2/3 of the A- teams make the Dance. It is not easy to stay in the top 3 categories (A- through A+) We did it last season and that was pretty amazing. The competition at the higher levels is more intense and the line separating these teams is much thinner. It is difficult to move up to A- or higher. It is even more difficult to stay there as other teams are gunning for you. While we won't be ranked we will be known as the team that beat a "top 10" team. A lot of factors feed in to the ratings ....who you play...how much is the margin of victory or defeat.....how your opponents do after you play them....game stats...etc. So it is possible to fall out of the A- rating even without playing but generally the mantra that will keep you there over the long term is....JUST WIN

This is an unusual game tonight. Both teams have a chance to improve their letter grade with a win....The Bills from B+ to A-....Butler from A- to A. As a comparison, none of the 5 teams that won in the A-10 last night was able to move their grade up. There are enough numbers accumulated at this point of the season where it is unusal for 1 team to move much less for both teams to have a chance to improve. For the Bills an A- would mean about a 70% chance for a Dance bid (providing they hold on to the A- for the rest of the season) For Butler an A is pretty much a lock for a bid (again provided they hold the A) So the importance of this game is positioning.... Get a win to put yourself in a bid position....then maintain. A loss for SLU would not be the end of the world but would mean they would still have to climb back up the ladder again.....which there is time to do. Let's get this win tonight.

You are correct.....you can't compare wins to spreads. Looks like we are both 4-1 on wins and on spreads ..3 of the 4 wins... I was within 4 points. I'll take that.

Here you go Taj.... Temp by 5 over Rich....Rich cools off at the 3pt VCU by 10 over RI..... Not much left in the tank after their win over us LaS by 8 over UMass....LaS is on a roll St. J by 10 over Ford...Ford not up to speed X by 1 over Day....A seesaw game with X by a nose So it looks like we are in agreement this time. Best games will be X/Day and Temp/Rich. We will see if the X home advantage is enough. Also, if Rich gets hot from the 3 they can beat anybody.

First of all great win yesterday. We held the Bonnies to only 2 baskets (2-16) from beyond the arc. A normal night would have been 6 baskets. I was hoping we could trim 1 basket from their total which would have given them a 31% shooting night from 3 (around the 32% I was looking for) and a 1 point victory for us. Instead we cut off an extra 3 shots (9 points) giving us a 10 point victory. Not to mention, the Bonnies passed on a number of 3 point shots because of our perimeter defense. We held them to 12% from the arc. A great effort.....RM would have been proud. Even with the loss St. Bon remains as a B- team. They were a hot team with a couple of big road wins coming into our game. This win looks good on our resume. For us, we remain at B+.....which brings us to the Butler game. This is a big game for a number of reasons....conference standings, Big Dance review, momentum, etc. In my calculations, this is a pivotal game. A win for us boosts us to an A-. This is important as roughly 2/3 of the teams rated A- make it to the Dance. A win puts us into the elite of A-10 (top 3). A loss throws us back into the pack and we have to wait till Feb 19 and after to make another significant move. For this game, I would like to see us hold Butler to 30% or less from the arc. Glad to see this game is going to be a sellout. It can only help us.

OK Taj....here is what I have......... RI by 4 over Ford....Ford gives it their best shot and falls short GW by 3 over Char.....GW, another team like the Bonnies who have improved this year to B- Day by 17 over Duq....we let the air out of Duq....a laffer for Day St. J by 5 over X....The Hawks show what they are made of this weekend But by 8 over Tem....Butler trying to stay ranked....looking for blood VCU by double digits over LaS....I will get you the exact spread after tonight's VCU/Richmond game. VCU disposes a good Richmond team....btw in a different thread I mentioned Richmond as the number one 3 point shooting team in the A-10...If they get hot from the arc they have the ability to surprise VCU. So Taj....it looks like we are pretty much in agreement for Sat games except the Bills.....probability of a Bills win ....51.5%.....hope you are wrong.....Go Bills This looks the same as the Vegas line. It may be...I have Vegas on the other line....they are wondering what to put up when they post their line tomorrow morning.

OK Taj....here is what I have......... RI by 4 over Ford....Ford gives it their best shot and falls short GW by 3 over Char.....GW, another team like the Bonnies who have improved this year to B- Day by 17 over Duq....we let the air out of Duq....a laffer for Day St. J by 5 over X....The Hawks show what they are made of this weekend But by 8 over Tem....Butler trying to stay ranked....looking for blood VCU by double digits over LaS....I will get you the exact spread after tonight's VCU/Richmond game. VCU disposes a good Richmond team....btw in a different thread I mentioned Richmond as the number one 3 point shooting team in the A-10...If they get hot from the arc they have the ability to surprise VCU. So Taj....it looks like we are pretty much in agreement for Sat games except the Bills.....probability of a Bills win ....51.5%.....hope you are wrong.....Go Bills So the spread for the VCU game is VCU by 10 over LaS. If you notice in the above post I mentioned that while VCU was favored, if Richmond got hot from the 3 there could be a surprise. They did and there was. Richmond shot 44% from 3 pt range. That is why I held off in posting that spread although I knew that this Sat it would be a 10 spread even if VCU lost. VCU now slips to A, no longer an elite team. Richmond remains as a B rated team.

OK Taj....here is what I have......... RI by 4 over Ford....Ford gives it their best shot and falls short GW by 3 over Char.....GW, another team like the Bonnies who have improved this year to B- Day by 17 over Duq....we let the air out of Duq....a laffer for Day St. J by 5 over X....The Hawks show what they are made of this weekend But by 8 over Tem....Butler trying to stay ranked....looking for blood VCU by double digits over LaS....I will get you the exact spread after tonight's VCU/Richmond game. VCU disposes a good Richmond team....btw in a different thread I mentioned Richmond as the number one 3 point shooting team in the A-10...If they get hot from the arc they have the ability to surprise VCU. So Taj....it looks like we are pretty much in agreement for Sat games except the Bills.....probability of a Bills win ....51.5%.....hope you are wrong.....Go Bills

Another nail biter. We are still at B+....St. Bon has moved up to B-. As you know, one of the stats I harp on is opp 3pt shooting %. This will be especially important in this game not only because it will be close but because the Bonnies are one of the best shooting 3 pt teams in the A-10...2nd only to Richmond. Stopping 1 extra 3 pointer could be the difference in the game. I think the magic number for this game will be to hold St. Bon to under 32% from beyond the arc.

Thanks all.... Now I have to start working on the Bonnies game

Sorry to get back on topic but here are my prognostications as requested by Taj..... X by 1 over Char...you guessed I would go with Char but I am taking X in a close one. But and LaS even....you don't see LaS as "any good"....well they are good enough to be even....this could be another last second shot for But. St. J over St. Bon by 9....we agree RI over GW by 1...RI momentun from our game carries them to victory in a very tight game. Day over Ford by 16...agreed no contest Tem over Penn by 19...agreed this is double bad. VCU by 8 over Rich....Rich has a pretty decent team but VCU is too much for them

Well even though the RI loss damaged our numbers (and helped RI) we are still a B+ team (and RI is still a C) However, a loss to Duq and we will start to be knocked down. Duq is currently a D+ team. Some are trashing us for the "horrible" loss to a bottom feeder. If RI is a bottom feeder it is only because the A-10 is a pretty good conference. Overall, they are a C team....much better than UT-Martin and SIU-E and much worse than New Mexico. Our loss was very similar to the Temple loss....2 B+ teams playing at home losing to C teams. It happens Bottomline....as long as we stay at the B+ level and win the games we are supposed to win, we can put ourselves in a position to Dance. . We can not have any more RI games at this point.

I am aware of the KenPom research and it is generally correct. However, I am saying RM would strongly disagree and tried to build teams to defend against the 3....and for the most part RM was pretty successful. He was imo an exception to the rule. An interesting note .....in the last 2 RI games ...Char and SLU.....here is RI's 3pt shooting % 1st half Char....50%....3 of 6 SLU.....50%....4 of 8 2nd half Char.....0%......0 for 11 SLU......54%....6 for 11 Char makes the adjustment...we don't.

52.6% That is the % that RI shot from beyond the arc. For those that read my posts you know this is a stat I focus on...opponent's 3 pt shooting %........ 52.6% Way too high. I like to see 35% or less. Why? Because that is what RM focused on and this is an RM team. Where did 35 come from? RM knew that the best teams in the country shot 40% and by defending against the 3 specifically, you should be able to cut the % to 35 or less. In the case of RI, a team that averages 33%, he would have targeted 28% or less....or 5 less baskets made.....which knocks off 15 points....which pretty much equals the spread. By targeting the 3, RM's goal was not only to cut the % down but to discourage the other team from shooting as many 3's . 52.6% Way to high for an RM team. If the team is not coached as an RM team then we will continue to struggle.

RI is a C team. Not a bad team but not a good team, It is just an average team. One we should be able to handle. We slipped back a little to B+ but not much thanks to the TAMU win yesterday. Also, Temple remains at B+.. With a few nice wins UW has moved up to B+ and SC is now our worst loss at B. Our worst loss is a B...not bad. As Bizzle pointed out in another thread we are about where we were last year at this time, I concur with that although I disagree that Sav St was a good win or could be a good win (still a D and no chance to move up)) The point is that this is about where we were last year when we gelled. I see no reason why we can't gel again. We will be favored in the next 8 games. Does that mean we win 8 in a row? We have a chance to .. The cumulative probability says it will be difficult But at this point I will take being favored in the next 8. This all assumes we do what we are supposed to do. I think if we go 20-4 or near that ,,,,it will quell a few naysayers. Let's begin a new winning streak by putting down RI.

Thanks Taj I watched the UD game for awhile. With about 8 min left in the 1st half the Clarke kid from Butler took a brutal hit. He was down for 15 min and had to be carried off on a stretcher. Fortunately, it doesn't seem serious. ...though he is questionable for the Bills game at this point. When the hit happened Dayton was down 2 and playing well. After the hit the team lost a step and the crowd went numb. The game was over at that point. My fav pick yesterday was St. J with an exact spread.

Yes I did wager and yes I am keaving with more than I came with.

Bills grade stay the same? I will have that tomorrow when all the games are finished today. All games affect the Bills to some extent. We will slip back a little probably to B+ in that we just had moved up to A- The TAMU game was a big help to us. What do you consider the "grade cutoff" for NCAA vs. other postseason? I.E. A B- team would be on the bubble? It kind of depends because there are so many automatic bids. Many of those teams are C (sometimes D) and they take spots from deserving teams. The more teams that you let in with lower scores....pushes the cutoff higher for the deservung teams. Generally an A or A+ team is in. Some A- teams get in and maybe an occasional B+. I can remember a few years ago Missouri St was an A team and failed to make it..

Bills grade stay the same? I will have that tomorrow when all the games are finished today. All games affect the Bills to some extent. We will slip back a little probably to B+ in that we just had moved up to A- The TAMU game was a big help to us.

While our 3 pt shooting was terrible,(19%) I always focus on opp 3 pt shootong because that is what RM would do and this is an RM team. Temple shot 45% from the arc...way to high. Had they shot the 25% or less I was hoping for (they ave 29.2%) you could knock off 9 points which probably would have given us the win even playing like we did.. Temple will probably move to A- so this will be a "quality " loss.

Mandalay Bay

I don't usually do this but since I am at the Sports Book anyway, I thought it would be interesting to compare Vegas numbers to mine. But by 1 over UD....Looks like I am the only one picking Dayton. Char by 2 1/2 over RI.......a match LaS by 9 over Rich.....I think Rich is better than most think though not good enough to win VCU by 7 1/2 over St. B....not enough respect for VCU Temp by 4 over SLU.....We are better than Vegas thinks X by 5 over GW,,,,This one will be a little closer than Vegas thinks St J by 8 over Duq,,,another match So 2 matches for Vegas and I gave them an extra 3 days to figure it out....lol

UConn AD dismisses move to the BE7 or MWC. Says there is no truth to it reports the Hartford Courant

For your A-10 reading pleasure......... Day by 1 1/2 over But Char by 2 1/2 over RI LaS by 6 over Rich X by 4 over GW VCU by 12 over St. B Temp by 2 over SLU St. J by 8 over Duq So yes, But is ripe for the picking but it will come down to the wire. Again how But is ranked 14th and VCU not ranked at all is beyond me.