The Wiz

Interesting work. Nice analysis

@ NYB & Qman What? No Temple ?

Break up the A-10 Oh wait ....they already did....nevermind

Btw...for those following the "other" game...... Lville by 10 over CSU

A really nice win yesterday as we SLU Goliath. A few more notes on the game before we move to Ore. NMSU took more 3 shots than normal AND made less. I was looking for the Bills to hold the Aggies to 27% or less. Instead, we hold them to 12 1/2%.... another stellar performance. In fact, if NMSU shoots its average from the arc they make 3 more 3's....while not enough to win it brings the spread down to 11 points or almost right on target for the predicted spread. As long as the Bills are able to keep having games where we hold the opp to 20% or less from the arc I will keep under reporting spreads. Let's hope that trend continues. In other notes...we move up 3 spots in my rankings to 12th not only because of a good win but because a lot of our former opp did well. We probably would have moved up more with a win by New Mex but ...oh well. Now on to Ore. Ore is a good team....A- ...similar in ranking to Butler. Butler is not a team you would take lightly but a team we can beat. Same with Ore. As long as we keep the pedal to the metal and play 40 min of bb we should be OK. Ore like NMSU is not a great shooting 3 pt team, though they take about the same amount of shots the Aggies took in the last game. Magic numbers for Sat....10 and 27. From the arc hold them to 10 shots and 27% or less shooting %. If we treat the Ducks with the same seriousness that we did Butler....it will be onto Indy.

Only common opponent ....New Mex......NMSU-- 2 losses by a total of 20pts....Bills beat Lobos by 14. Both teams won their tourney... let's see what the report cards look like...... Bills....................................NMSU Char....C+...........................Idaho....C- Butler...A-............................Tex St...D VCU.....A..............................UT-Arl...C+ Our doormat (Ford) would be able to beat their bottom 4. The level of competition is definitely a couple of steps below us. Even the WAC's best team Denver (B+) is only going to the NIT Not much to see here....Time to move on

Ok St by 4 over Ore.

Btw, you will note of all the 12 schools mentioned for the new BE only 1 is ahead of us....Gtwn

Here you go in order Lville Fla Ind Kan Zags Duke Oh St Wisc Mich St Pitt Gtwn Mich Mia Syr The Bills-15th Creighton New Mex Ks St Ok St Az NC Marq Mizz NC St ND VCU Minn Ole Miss Iowa I think that is 29....I stopped there cause there was a break in the talent at that point Hope that helps

I will be at the FH.....save me a seat

Don't think I will be able to do it. I can't just pull out SLU's numbers and start on Jan. 23 (Duq game) . That is because all of the numbers from all the games are interdependent on one another. To pull out just the Bills numbers without changing all the other teams will mess up the data. Now if this was my full time job ...maybe...but it isn't. You would almost have to start the season for all 347 teams on Jan 23 to make it work. It is kind of like Newton's Law of Universal Gravitation....everything pulls or effects everything else in the Universe. So that is why I implemented the trending factor which weighs recent games more heavily when there is a discrepancy in the spread numbers. Superimposing the data isn't a perfect solution but it may speed up the self adjustment factor. Btw...if I was your prof, I would give you the A.

Lville has their best player back....Mizzou took him out early in that game (and for the next 4 weeks) and still lost by 23pts. Lville remembers Mizzou. Better root for CSU if you want help. Of course their is a reason they are 8 and 9 seeds...about equal so I am not sure CSU is much more help but at least a different look.

Mizzou has already been crushed once by the Ville in the Bahamas. The Zoo fans will say they are better. So are the Cards. Better root for CSU if you are looking for help.

It would be nice to jettison the first part of the season. Have you ever tried to tell a professor to get rid of your early semester grades...you just didn't get the course in the beginning but have since gelled. What he might do is to weight your recent test scores and help your grade that way. Just like the pollsters have done. They have weighted our recent performance and made us 13th. If we had started 15-1 we would have been top 5 or 10 team. But alas, I can't throw the early season numbers out any more than the professor can drop the early test scores. As I pointed out earllier, the trending factor I have added during the A-10 tourney should help speed up the self adjusting numbers.....but if we continue to improve...continue to take it to a new level quickly...then you will have to live with under reported winning spreads. I will take that.

I have Louisville as thr best team in the country. I have seen them play a number of times. There is something the numbers don't transmit . ..the teamwork and level of play combined with a high level of athleticism. In many ways they are like us but at a higher level. They, like us, have had a "gel moment"......a point where everything came together. The difference is ours happened like magic and was pleasantly surprising. The Cards moment was by design. Pitino uses the regular season like spring training. Feb is like the regular season and March is l the playoffs. Their goal is to get tuned up for the playoffs and they have done that and are ready to go. Does that mean they win the Nat Championship....No but they have the best chance. They have periods during games where they go cold or let up...but they have many ways to beat you. Being a 7 point underdog means if they have an off night and we play great we can beat them. They are much better than the Mich St team we played last year and the Kansas team we played this year. The fact that the point spread is only 7 now is a testament to how far and how fast we have come along. We are one of the best teams in the nation. Louisville is the best. Bad draw in the bracket. One thing I will miss is the RM factor. You know he would have had a plan. It truly would have been an epic coaching battle. But for now, to quote an earler post someone made.....we have a chance. I think the best plan right now is to fully focus on NMSU. We should be able to beat them but they are not Fordham...they are more like Richmond in the rankings. If we start looking ahead to Louisville or OK St we will be in trouble. One step at a time. Go Bills

Got it.... Bills over Ore by 5 1/2 Bills over Ok St by 1 1/2 Lville by 7 over Bills Of course these numbers will change a little as the tourney progresses. As far as spreads since Duq and the methodology used..... It is interesting that the Duq game is the turning point of the season. It was also the halfway point too. So a good place to compare data. Starting with the St. B game it was like we were starting from scratch...data wise ...as if it were Nov again...like a new year.....and maybe it was. First without using point spreads....just win/loss record... I finished 27-3-3 (3 games even) First part of the season,13-2-2 ...second part 14-1-1 With spreads....average miss was 9.3 pts....1st half 9.8....2nd half ...8.8pts A few games skewed the average...so I separated them out...those that were more than 10 pts away from prediction 1st half 11 close (6.36 pts ave) ...6 far....2nd half 11 close (5.18 pts) ...5 far Overall 22 close (5.7 pts)...11 far So what does that mean?....When I picked a winner I was correct 90% of the time....Also 2/3 of the time I missed the exact spread by 5-6 pts. Also 2nd half of season better than first ....more data. Not bad for free info and definitely better than chance. One last thing....you are correct about me lagging on the spreads once the Bills "exploded" after Duq. One of the things I have been tinkering with is adding a trending factor which weighs recent games more heavily. This will reflect not only when a team gels, but injuries, transfers....anything that suddenly changes the numbers. I started using it during the A-10 tourney. (Char game) Although a small sample of 3 games...the ave was 5 pts off. We will see how it does. And finally for those that would like to see what the whole season looked like........ Team.................actual spread...........predicted.........pts away USC...................17..............................12.....................5 San Cl.................12..............................18....................30......wrong outcome TAMU..................21...............................E.....................21 KU to win..............14...............................8.....................6 SIU.........................10..............................19...................9 Wash......................5.................................E...................5 Valpo......................13...............................5...................8 N Tex......................4................................14..................10 UT Mart...................22..............................25...................3 EIU..........................27..............................21...................6 Loy..........................21..............................12...................9 SIU-E.......................27.............................21...................6 New Mex.................14..............................3 1/2...............10 1/2 Sav..........................8.................................18..................10 UMass......................8................................12...................4 Temp to win..............10..............................2.....................8 RI...............................2...............................14...................16 wrong outcome Duq............................9................................9.....................0 St. B...........................10..............................1.....................9 But..............................17..............................2.....................15 Day..............................29.............................5......................24 Ford.............................17............................12......................5 Rich.............................10.............................2......................8 Char.............................18.............................11 1/2..............6 1/2 VCU..............................14.............................2......................12 But.................................4..............................E......................4 St. J................................17............................9 1/2...............7 1/2 GW.................................8..............................6.......................2 X.....................................11............................4......................15 wrong outcome LaS.................................24............................6.......................18 Char................................17...........................12......................5 But...................................11...........................4........................7 VCU.................................6.............................3.......................3

I have this on the Bills prediction thread.....But here it is again Bills by 10 over NMSU Ok St by 4 over Ore Lville play-in game shows NC A&T beating Liberty. When I put in NC A&T vs Lville it wanted to know... ..how many points I wanted... and then said is 26 enough. Win probability=99.9%

NMSU is the 2nd most difficult 13 seed.....LaS is the toughest....just saying

@wgstl...Denver (B+) is a better team than NMSU ( B ) @ slufanskip....I hate that the A-10 runs their tourney till minutes before Selection Sunday. Other teams are celebrating Selection Sunday in their arenas...we are at a Best Buy store in NJ. A lost publicity opportunity for the Bills and the A-10. Plus, as you mentioned in your post, it puts us at a physical disadvantage with no break between tournys. Look at a team like Creighton. They have have a 10 day break to rest and recover and get ready to travel. Hopefully, the new BE will not have their tourney stretch to Selection Sunday.

And for those looking for a little more info....... Ok St by 4 over Ore. We then should be favored over either of these teams though Ok St would be a tough matchup.

First, to cleanup a few old matters We finish the season at 15th ranked. Our numbers improved a lot during the tourney but we are in rarified air and it is difficult to move much in the top 15. However, if we keep winning we will move higher. Great wiin over VCU. On my earlier post I was looking for us to hold them to 30% from the arc. Final total--16.7%....another super effort against a good 3 pt team....BTW, whatever happened to all the VCU trolls...they didn't even come back to wish us well. I guess it is like cockroaches when you turn the lights on....they scatter. As for our upcoming game with NMSU, on paper they look scary big....but in real life they are scary bad. Well, maybe bad is a bit harsh. They are a B team similar in ranking to Richmond. They are not a very good shooting 3 pt team. Magic numbers for this game are 8 and 27...8 or less shots from the arc with a shooting % of 27 or less. If we set the tempo and control the game and not get freaked out by Shrek then we should Crews to victory.

NMSU is a B rated team....In the A-10 they would compare ranking wise to Richmond.

Here's an article from Rachael Cohen, sportswriter for the AP , who follows the A-10. http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=rachael%20cohen%20butler&source=web&cd=6&cad=rja&sqi=2&ved=0CFYQFjAF&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.goupstate.com%2Farticle%2F20130316%2FAPS%2F1303160769&ei=JtVFUc3xLoP88gSSqYCgCg&usg=AFQjCNHzGn-9oXZAO2eTVBK660V99s5wlA Some take aways from the article..... Butler may be the bigger name but the Bills have been the class of the A-10 in 2013. From Roosevelt Jones- Butler "enforcer" on Evans...the most physical player I have ever played against in my life. He should have been POY in the conference. Brad Stevens on the Bills strength.....Butler hasn't faced anyone with as much strength as the Biils...not even Indiana. Hmm....no mention of VCU by Stevens....I guess he doesn't know as much about basketball as some of the VCU fans

I still have us at 15th ranked with a 4 seed. As I stated in yesterday's thread, there is just too much ground to make up to move higher. A win today and a loss by Miami and we could move to 14th but the seed would stay the same. Bottomline...beat VCU=4 seed....lose = 5 seed The good news is our numbers have improved which should help in our seeding provided the committee can get by any bias they may have. An interesting question is....would you take a 4/5 seed farther away or a 5/6 seed closer to home. I am hoping with a win today that the committee will give us both a good seed and close venue....not an easy thing to win the league and the tourney championship in a highly rated conference. As for today's game, VCU is another 3 pt shooting team. They are not at the Richmond level but decent. Here are today's magic numbers....15 & 30. We need to hold them to 15 shots or less and 30% or less from the arc. Let's hope the Bills can create their own form of havoc today.

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=brad%20stevens&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&sqi=2&ved=0CEkQqQIwAw&url=http%3A%2F%2Fespn.go.com%2Fblog%2Fcollegebasketballnation%2Fpost%2F_%2Fid%2F79759%2Fstevens-has-a-sleeper-pick-saint-louis&ei=kFNFUYDYCpT8yAH61YGIAg&usg=AFQjCNHfqrhwIPeX6V6CnMr7fa4E83KldQ So who are we to believe? A smack talking Rams fan named Iquarles (an appropriate troll name) or one of the most respected college basketball coaches in the country who has seen both teams upclose and personal. ESPN has skipped Mr Quarreler and chosen 3rd party observer Brad Stevens who I am sure has a much better basketball mind than someone who is just looking to quarrel.