The Wiz

General Outlook......There has been a lot of talk this season about the A10 being down and that we are a 1 bid league. So I asked the computer if there was no automatic bid would the A10 get a bid...The answer was probably not. Chances of a bid to the A10 with no auto bid is 37%. Just another way of measuring the A10 regression...though it is still early and that might change but for now the computer is unimpressed with the league. We still have a couple more games to go before we have enough data to make any serious prognostications. Game Preview....This will be the Bills toughest challenge to date....We come into the game still clinging to B- while USU shows up with a grade of B+ and a lot of fancy stats to show they are for real. They are one of the top 2 pt shooting teams ITN. ..with 2 players shooting 63.6% and 62%. One of them Great Osoler (no it is not a typo...his name is Great) is Mr USU as he is listed in 4 key categories of top 100 players(see report card below) In addition they have 2 other players listed in 3 more top 100 areas. On top of this they have one of the best defenses ITN. So are we goners? No... the computer says we have a good chance to win this game. It says if we play like we did in the 1st half of the DART game ...we win by 7....but if we play like we did in the 2nd half we lose by 9. Most of the simulations fall around even....with about 70% showing a range of The Bills by 4 down to USU by 2. A TO or a missed layup could be the difference in the game. Make 2s (50.5%) and win. Report Card.... ..Report card for this game is neutral with 2 categories up and 2 down. Let's see what things look like.... ...................SLU......................USU........................SLU.............................USU .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............C+.......................B.............................C..................................A- FG%...............D+......................A+..10th ITN............C+................................A- 3P%...............A-......................C..............................B....................................A+..2nd ITN FT%...............C+......................D-....................................................................... Reb...............D..........................B.............................F....................................A OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....none..........Def.....PPG...3P% Down.........Off......PPG...FG%.......Def....none Top 100 In The Nation SLU FT%...Jimerson...56th USU PPG...Osoler...28th Rebs....".....".....24th Blks....."....".....22nd FG%....Falslev...71st (63.6%)....Osoler...100th(62%) Asst....Brown II ...2nd Stls...Falslev...91st Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills.... Parker ....Nov 17....Foot...fractured foot...out indefinitely USU... None Key to the Game......Make 2s...This is even more important this game as USU's strong suits are 2P% and 3P Def....Stop Osoler....Brown (their version of Yuri)will feed Osoler and that is their play. WWN2D2W...45/51/38/72....Hold their top 3 scorers to 34 pts...Hold USU to 72 pts...Stop Osoler...Hold him to less than 50% FG%...7 rebs.....1 blk.......SLU TOs 10 or 3 TOs less that USU... Bottom line....Play 40 min of focused and fast bball....If The Bills can make some 2s, it could turn out to be a not so "GREAT" day for USU

Well , let's see what we have here....I have the Bills as a B- team...Ken has them as a C+ team(168-slightly above average)...Seems like ole Ken and me are pretty close together. If I am way off, then you are saying Ken is way off. I think Ken would disagree with you.

I think if you look at all 363 teams we are above average...I have The Bills at B-....Vegas is more optimistic with a B...KenPom is at a C+. It is still early....I think the smoke will clear in the next few weeks....we have a lot of close games coming up....In a close game early in the season where there is less data...the X factor becomes more important. Will the Bills win those games? Depends on how much of the X factor they have....How bad do they want it? Can they focus for 40 min? Can they make half of their 2s ? Stay tuned.

I think it is important to use KenPom's disclaimer..... "Projected record is based on cumulative probabilities of winning each game and may not equal the sum of individual game predictions." If you show the entire season...he has us winning only 4 more games for the rest of the season ...yet using his own projections he shows us winning 9 more on his total season....which means he thinks there is a good chance we will win some of those games listed. How does he do that? By putting in the disclaimer above....Cumulative probabilities are different than individual game forecasts...thereby creating the above confusing which leads to the disclaimer. Bottom line.... A few days ago Ken had us beating UT St I wouldn't put a lot of faith in any forecast that goes out more than 1 game at a time.

A couple of points here....First , let me say , I am not a defender of Ford BUT I am a defender of the facts and based on his latest interview (last night -post game) he said the following..... the first statement he made was that last night's poor play against DART "is on me"....which means he takes responsibility for the loss... The second major statement he made was ..."I can fix it"....He did not say I alone can fix it. Let's not make things worse than they are. During that interview last night , he was upset.... as mad as I have heard him publicly. Things are not going as planned. Some of it his fault...some of it not. Right now we are an above average team BUT not good enough for post season play. But it is still early...we haven't even reached a minimum data size yet. Generally , the time to review the season prospects are after the OOC play is complete....usually by then ...you are who you are. The Bills are currently B-...they need to get to B by Xmas to keep on the right path.

To paraphrase Mark Twain...the reports of my point spread missing in action are greatly exaggerated. As you can see from the original post , It has been up since last Tues.. At first , it looks like the computer was on to something ...it got the spread right for the 1st half...11pts and for the game it looks like it just had an extra 1...11 instead of 1....but in the end the computer's forecast proved prophetic. From the original post above...... Weak shooting continues to plague The Bills especially on close in shots. I will add a 4th category to the slash line (2P%) until the issue improves. As you all know The Bills have a number of problems but the computer has determined that the missed 2s are leading factor leading to losses and smaller than expected spread outcomes. The target to get The Bills back on track is 50.5% from inside the arc. In the last 2 games The Bills have shot 35.1% and 41.7% from 2P land. They are averaging 41.9% for the year which grades out at F+. They need to start making the short ones. ..We shot another dismal 42% from 2P land. That number will be costly if it continues....both in spreads (which is a big part of NET rankings) and wins. We have got to fix this and fix it quick. If you still don't believe this is a serious issue, all you have to do is drill down into the micro stats of this game. In the 1st half the Bills shot 50% from inside the arc (remember that the computer's target for The Bills is 50.5%) and the result was an 11 pt lead at the half.....what a coincidence. In the 2nd half The Bills shot a 36% 2P shooting rate good for an F- and wound up losing the 2nd half by 10 and almost the game. Again, there were some good things that happened ...not the least of which we won the game....And there were some nice individual performances BUT if we don't start shooting 50% from inside the arc , it will be a very long season. I heard Ford's post game interview and he was mad and upset....He said this poor performance was on him...and he can fix it....Don't know if he reads the board but he did focus on the issue of shooting inside the arc...hmmm...another one of those coincidences. Let's hope he can fix it and do it quickly as the competition ramps up quickly starting on Tues.

General Outlook......Putting this forecast up a bit early because neither The Bills or DART have a game before Sat.....Weak shooting continues to plague The Bills especially on close in shots. I will add a 4th category to the slash line (2P%) until the issue improves. As you all know The Bills have a number of problems but the computer has determined that the missed 2s are leading factor leading to losses and smaller than expected spread outcomes. The target to get The Bills back on track is 50.5% from inside the arc. In the last 2 games The Bills have shot 35.1% and 41.7% from 2P land. They are averaging 41.9% for the year which grades out at F+. They need to start making the short ones. Game Preview....The Bills are still grading out overall at B-. Their opponent this Sat is a weak DART....not terrible like a LeMoyne College but still bad ...overall grade is D. If The Bills can get back on track they could turn this game into a blowout. Report Card.... ..Report card for this game is weak...All offense was down except FT shooting which was up and Def 3P% which remained the same. Let's see what things look like.... ...................SLU......................DART........................SLU.............................DART .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............B-.......................F-.............................C-..................................D- FG%...............C-......................F-.............................C...................................F- 3P%...............A-......................F-.............................B-....................................D FT%...............C+......................B....................................................................... Reb...............D..........................C-.............................F....................................D+ OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....FT%..........Def.....none Down.........Off......All but FT%.......Def....All but 3P% Top 100 In The Nation SLU None DART None Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills.... Parker ....Nov 17....Foot...fractured foot...out indefinitely DART... None Key to the Game......Make 2s WWN2D2W...46/51/40/72....Hold their top 2 scorers to 20 pts...Hold DART to 70 pts....Rebs even...TOs 10 Bottom line....If we can make our 2s (especially the close in ones) then The Big Green will lose it's sheen. BTW...Did I mention the thing about the 2s?

I think you missed the point ....the computer is not using 55.6% as the 3 pt target ....it was using 40%...Coming into the WSU game The Bills were averaging 42.9% (12th ITN) ....even the last 2 games which were way off the mean, things still came together in a divergent manner. We shot 55.6% against VT and 27.5% against WSU...averaging out to 41.6%...still slightly above the computer's forecast. So the numbers were in line...The Bills just needed to make some shots. BTW...I told the computer that you called it a Homer....It said that it had nothing to do with The Iliad but it would be happy to discuss it with you on another thread

I will try to make this as painless and quick as possible. In the original post , I spoke at length of the problem of missed 2s especially layups and bunnies. The game against VT we shot a dismal 35%...this game was a little better at 41.7% but still a far cry from 51% target necessary to win and make spreads. The real difference between the WSU and the VT game was the 3P shooting. In the loss to VT we shot an amazing 55.6% from the arc which kept us in the game and pushed us to 12th ITN in 3P shooting percent. This game we shot less than half of that...27.5%( F- )...You can't win games with this kind of shooting. Final painful factoid...The projected slash that I put up every game that factors into the spread and ultimately whether we win or lose is based on The Bills average shooting, not a wishful projection. With that in mind, the Bills fell four 2PM shots short and four 3PM shots short. Which means had the Bills had just an average night against WSU ...we would have scored 20 more points AND WON THE GAME BY 1 pt. To me it looks like the computer gets the numbers right BUT there is one thing the computer can not do....It can't get on the court and make shots. The saying does not read...Go see the computer play....The saying is...Go see the kids play.....and if the kids don't play, they don't win.

General Outlook.... A key component of the WWN2D2W going forward will be the golden slash...48/51/40/ 72...with the emphasis on the 2P%. Not only on the VT game but on the games we won but missed the spread, the issue was 2P shooting...many of these shots were layups and bunnies. Game Preview....As you can see by the spread this is going to be a close game WSU comes in as a B team...The Bills at B-....If we make the golden slash we win. Won't be easy as they have a couple of 6'10" guys. We have the advantage in 3 P shooting ...they have it in Reb. Report Card.... Let's see what things look like.... ...................SLU......................WSU........................SLU.............................WSU .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............B.........................B-.............................C..................................C FG%...............C+......................B-.............................B-...................................A- 3P%...............A+...12th ITN.....C.............................B-....................................B FT%...............C........................C....................................................................... Reb...............D+........................A.............................F+....................................C- OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....3P%..........Def.....Rebs Down.........Off......FG%...FT%...Reb.......Def....FG%.....Reb Top 100 In The Nation SLU TOs/Gm....50th ITN WSU None Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills.... Parker ....Nov 17....Foot...fractured foot...out indefinitely WSU... Cortes...Nov 6...out for season...eligibility issues Keys to the game.... Golden slash(see below)...beat them in scoring in the 4th qtr...Make some FTs...could be a difference maker. WWN2D2W...48/51/40/72....Hold their top 3 scorers to 35 pts...Keep them to 70 pts....Our rebs + stls= WSU rebs...beat them on TOs by 3 Bottom line....If we make the slash...we can Shock the Shockers.

That's why we need either Ewe or Mag to clear eligibility waivers . One (or both) would free up Hargrove. In the meantime, let's hope this was a shooting outlier today.

I will make this short and sweet and focus on 1 stat...one that doesn't show up on the box score but tells the whole story.... 2P%.... VT...64% SLU....35% 1st half was even worse.....77% VT....24% SLU Had we just shot average from inside the arc(many of the misses were layups and bunnies)....we would have made 6 more shots...and won by 2pts. And that doesn't factor in the fact they shot way above their averages. It was ours to win with just an average game even with their hot hand.

General Outlook.... A good win yesterday...dampened by the loss of Parker. But all is not lost...remember we won yesterday with Jimerson scoring no points and a good 4th qtr without Parker...something we haven't be able to do with Parker playing. If we can get 1 or 2 of the missing players back soon(Eze or Mag) that would be a boost. Game Preview....As you can see by the spread....close game...possible OT...I tried to turn up the sensitivity on the computer asking it to go 3 decimal places. It then said Bills by 2/3 of a point and then got huffy with me and printed out the following....Stop being a homer....with only 3 D1 games played and Parker out you should be happy with a tossup....leave it at even. Encouraging sign yesterday was the strong 4th quarter finish. ....Both teams today grade out at B-. As you will see in the report card below VT has one of the top defenses in the country right now. Yesterday's WY team had one of the top offenses ITN ....I mentioned that it was inflated by weak competition and was unsustainable and that the Bills would be the team to slow them down. Same thing with VT except on defense... Inflated numbers built on wins over Plattsburg and Merrimack...Unsustainable defensive numbers which again will have to be brought down by the Bills. This will be our toughest game so far as the Catamounts have some excellent 3P shooters. We win this game if a player(s) step up today and have a strong 4th quarter again. Report Card.... Let's see what things look like.... ...................SLU......................VT........................SLU.............................VT .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............B.........................C.............................C+..................................A+...11th ITN FG%...............B-......................B...............................B+...................................A- 3P%...............A-......................B+............................B+....................................A+...9th ITN FT%...............B-......................C+....................................................................... Reb...............C-.........................C+.............................F....................................B+ OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....FG%...FT%.......Def.....3P% Down.........Off......Reb.................Def....FG%.....Reb Top 100 In The Nation SLU TOs/Gm....70th ITN VT 3P%...Bogues...#1 ....Ndayishimiye...56th TO/gm.....21st Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills.... Parker ....Nov 17....Foot...possible broken bone...out indefinitely VT..... Forillo (F)...Nov 6th...knee...out till mid Dec Keys to the game...Stop the 3...play a strong 4th qtr ....have some one step up with a good game WWN2D2W...48/40/75...Hold them to 44%FG...35% 3s...Hold their top 3 scorers to 35 pts...Keep them to 70 pts....Our rebs + stls= Vt rebs...beat them on TOs Bottom line....This game will be won by the team that wants it the most....If the Bills play like yesterday ...we win and turn the Catamount into a kitty.

Injury update on Sincere... Nov 16...Parker...Questionable for Vt game....Ankle....Uncertain if he will be available on Fri

Post game wrap A lot to like in this game...let's get to the good stuff... Bolded phrases are from the original post in this thread.... We need to play 4 quarters....Let me reword that....We need to play the 4th quarter...We need to out score them in the final 10 mins which will not only give us a win but we will beat the spread by a bit too....At the 10 min mark we led 55-52...just 1 pt off the spread...4th qtr score 24-17...nice finish...it is what we needed to do and need to do going forward...If we can continue on this track...finish strong...that bodes well for the future. Make FTs ...We did...17-22 make some 3s...We did ...8-20 50/40/ 75......47.4 / 40 / 77.3....almost right on the money....I am liking the new upgrade on the computer...Take that Laramie computer... Hold WY to 73 pts...Bingo...69 pts...good D against a big and shooting team.... WY shooting FG% 58%...3P% 49%......5th ITN in FG% &3P%...Actual game stats...35%/14%.... it will be The Bills job to start making those stats unsustainable...we did The Cowboys have 6 good players but not much depth. They will start to fade in a tourney with 3 games in 4 days. Hopefully our run and gun will cause them to fade in our game ...WY had 6 players who scored and they did fade in this game Out rebound them by 4......46-33....This didn't happen but it didn't matter because of another outstanding stat....13 steals...13 just happens to be the number of rebounds we were short....so we got the ball back anyway. 10 TOs...15 TOs ...another stat we missed that didn't matter because WY had 19 TOs...a net gain of 4 for the Bills hold there top 3 scorers to 42...This was a miss but yet again worked out for the Bills...The top 3 usually average 53...we held them to 47...not only close but more significant was the rest of the team scored only 22pts ...to put this in perspective our top 3 scored 48 (beating their top 3) and the rest of our team out scored the rest of their team 31-22....One last point...if I had forecast that Jimerson wouldn't score any points...how many on here would have thought we would win much less win by double digits....sweet Bottom line...Not much time for the Bills or me to get ready for tomorrow's game (I have to wait till 1 AM for the last D1 game to finish so I can get a full set of data) But The Bills and I will make it work. So as the sun sets in the Western sky , we bid a fond farewell to the Laramie computer as it now reverts back to its primary purpose...keeping track of prairie dogs.

And that is a good thing....We will finally start to move up in the rankings.

Vegas...Gateway to Wyoming....Supporting their fellow Mt West member.

It looks like the gurus are following the path of The Wiz...

https://dataskrive.com/about/ Meet Data Skrive...DS is the one or thing who picked WY by 11....and that's why it's called ARTIFICIAL intelligence. The Wiz to his computer....What do you know about Data Skrive? Computer......Joke....next thing you know it will be trying to forecast college basketball games. Computer....Why is the picture and all the stats that it is using to make its decisions from 2022? It is almost 2024. The Wiz...Don't know Computer...And why are all rights reserved??!! Like someone's going to steal 2 year old WY basketball stats with out of sync spreads. That machine is going to give us all a bad name. Humans beware! Next thing you know Mountain West will be rated the #1 conference in D1. At this point , I had to turn off the computer as it was starting to over heat.

I would like to add 1 more...#4....we tire out after 30 min.

I would say if you can take The Bills and get 11 points go for it. Every model I have seen has the Bills winning in a close one. Seems the WY computer may be a few Megs short of a Gig. My computer would eat that Laramie computer for lunch.

It looks like there are a few on this thread who feel we can't out rebound WY.....If you look at the report card both teams have a grade of C on total rebounds. The computer says it is a coin flip since both teams are showing the same grade. In WWN2D2W, the computer shows what it will take to win the game. Do we need to make all those parameters ?....No...If we make most of them or some of them( like out rebounding WY by 4) the probability is that we will win. In fact even if you only made 1 or 2 of the parameters and far exceeded we could still win. In its quantum state, the computer says both teams win the rebound battle...it will depend on the observer(s) for the final outcome.

General Outlook.... A couple of points to start....First ...Fans say we haven't really played anyone. That will end with this game...WY, while not a powerhouse comes in at C+ and with some very impressive stats. This will be our toughest game so far. The Bills remain at B. Point two...We are 3-0 ...why do we seem to be moving sideways in the ratings. Because we haven't really womped (a technical term) anyone. Even though we have won by nice margins we haven't beat my spread. My spread weighs heavily on margin of victory. Whether you want to call it that or Net Efficiency, the bottom line is ...The NET is based on margin of victory. I have tried to model my system after the NET as many other rating systems have. Had we made my spreads we would have moved up on most rating services....Had we been able to hold the 24 pt leads, we would have made some big jumps. Make no mistake about it...the primary goal of any rating system is to win but after that it is by how much. Game Preview.... Which brings us to this game...a tough matchup. As you can see by the spread, the goal here will be to win by any margin. WY has some eye popping stats...shooting FG% 58%...3P% 49%...3 players averaging a combined 53pts /gm. ...a player shooting 80% with 10 rebs /gm....I could go but you get the idea...unsustainable season stats ...and it will be The Bills job to start making those stats unsustainable. How can we do that? By playing Bills ball. First a dose of reality...The Cowboys have 2 wins...1 against a D2 team , the other against Cal Poly ...one of the worst D1 teams in a weak league (Big West) So the stats have been inflated a bit but WY can still play. Manyawu is an athletic 6'9 forward who can shoot and rebound especially if playing against a weak defense. His sub is a 7 footer Kojenets....who is a fly swatter averaging 4 blocks a game...you have to work around him...if you come at him the game will turn into a ping pong match. Add in some guards that can shoot 3s when left alone and you have a sizeable task. The Cowboys have 6 good players but not much depth. They will start to fade in a tourney with 3 games in 4 days. Hopefully our run and gun will cause them to fade in our game . The computer has sifted through all of this data and still has made the determination we can win this game....ie we are the better team....if we play our game. Report Card.... Let's see what things look like.... ...................SLU......................WY........................SLU.............................WY .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............B.........................A.............................C+..................................B+ FG%...............C+......................A+...5th ITN.........A-...................................B+ 3P%...............A-......................A+.....5th ITN.........B-..................................D FT%...............C+......................D.................................................................. Reb...............C.........................C.............................F+.................................A OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....FT%...Def.....FG% Down.........Off.......3P%....Reb......Def....none Top 100 In The Nation SLU TOs/Gm....The Bills...20th...8.6/gm WY Assts...Kot...66th...5 Rebs...Manyawu...37th...10 FG%....Manyawu....26th...80% Blks...Kojenets....2nd....4/gm Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills.... none WY..... Foster....G...Out for season (Nov 6)....Achilles Waters...F...Out till mid Jan (Oct 19)...Thumb ... Keys to the game.. . ..We need to play 4 quarters....Let me reword that....We need to play the 4th quarter.....The first 2 D1 games we have played have been great games for 3 quarters...the 4th quarters we seem to run out of steam...We need to out score them in the final 10 mins which will not only give us a win but we will beat the spread by a bit too. Make FTs . We shot great against ILST... the other 2 games not so good. FTs don't always matter in the outcome of the game. It will matter in this game. Not only because it is projected to be close...but because WY is a poor shooting FT team....They have 1 guy who can shoot (Kot...94%) ...the rest of the team...meh.... advantage Bills...take it....Finally, make some 3s...The Cowboys don't defend well from the arc. WWN2D2W...Make some shots...50/40/ 75....Protect the ball...10 TOs...Out rebound them by 4....Play some D....hold there top 3 scorers to 42 pts and the team to 73pts....Score more pts then them in the final quarter Bottom line....This will be a good test. If the Bills play their game , we will ride the Cowboys out of town.

The above is how Vegas sees the season ending . Another point of view is how Vegas sees the A-10 today. 1st...Day 2nd...tied...SLU, Duq and VCU 5th...tied...Rich...Dav 7th...Loy 8th...tied...GM, GW, St. B., St. J, RI and UMass 14th...Fham 15th...LaS While the standings are not real meaningful at this time due to a small sample size...the betting still counts.

You have 48 hrs from tipoff...It is a shake shack burger...if you want something different they will just leave off what you don't want. Show them your phone tickets...Any St. Louis area SS...I think there are 3.