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OT: 10* Super Bowl Lock of the Decade


MB73

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Major props to MB.

I was leaning taking the Seahawks and thinking they would win big. Everybody I know was taking Denver. My bookie stopped taking bets for Denver it was so much in their favor. MB's post put me over the top, took the Seahawks, made two smaller bets with ridiculous odds for Seattle winning by 2 and 3 touchdowns.

Peyton is a foo foo commie and I bow to MB's handicapping genius.

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This wasn't hard to predict. Just look at Denver schedule and results. They score some points but they give up a lot as well. If Manning can't move the ball against L. O. B. , The result was inevitable.

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10*, Seattle, + 2 1/2.

Rare once in a decade MB73 10 star. Seattle will win outright by 21. Blowout.

Seattle played the 7th toughest schedule in the NFL (after playoff games) whereas Denver played the 18th. Before the playoffs, it was a wider disparity. Denver's SOS got better as they played two playoff games, it was > 20.

Seattle beat San Francisco, maybe the best, well balanced (though road weary) team in the NFL to get here. Denver beat an injury riddled New England team, with 6-7 quality starters out, including 5-6 All Pro type players.

Seattle is healthy. Denver is missing their star LB, CB, and a key DL. They lost their star LT early in the year.

The game is on artificial turf. Faster game than on grass, so Seattle's cuts and footwork are the same, Denver has an ever so slight but significant change on every play.

Denver's one advantage, their passing game, will be neutralized significantly by the weather, about 20 degrees at game time, lower wind chill with 5-15 mph winds. The physics of the game change dramatically, it is very significant. One of the best QB's ever, Peyton Manning, will be hindered, he has had historical problems throwing in the extreme cold, and any deep passing game will be a risk, the ball will drift in the wind and cold. The Seattle DB's will jam the receivers and keep it tight. I don't like them personally but they are top notch. And on artificial turf, the Seattle DL and LB's will speed rush and bother Manning often, when they don't sack him.

The weather will make it a power smash mouth game, and Seattle's style will benefit. Seattle will score a TD on "D" and / or get the ball in the red zone to set up a score. RB Lynch gets better as the game goes on. Over rated Seattle QB Wilson will be a good fit in this environment, minimize mistakes, hand the ball off to Lynch, throw tight short passes, keep the ball on the option play for some first downs, run the clock, depend on the defense.

Team comparisons:

Seattle DB’s superior

Seattle LB’s better

Seattle DL superior

Seattle RB much better

Seattle-Denver OL equal

Denver WR & TE’s better (though if Harvin is effective, it is about equal)

Denver QB superior (well, in nice weather!)

Seattle coaching better

Seattle faced 8 teams in the top 6 in total defense & 7 teams that won at least 10 games. Denver has really inflated passing statistics since they've faced 9 teams who ranked in the bottom 8 in yards per play defense. And Manning poured it on when he had the chance, and he often did against hapless opponents. Seattle has allowed just 14.4 PPG this season. They have 8 of out of 10 best skill position players in this matchup.

I would like to see Peyton go out a winner, complete his legacy, he is a good person, an icon. I think this is his last game either way. But everything points to Seattle domination.

Bet it big. Tell your friends about the impending blowout and impress them, some of you will be right about something for a change. You know who you are. :)

Enjoy.

Well done.

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John Manning > Peyton Manning

Dakota Fanning > Peyton Manning

Carol Channing > Peyton Manning

It wasn't Peyton Manning's fault at all.

On one of my follow up posts I elaborated on the fact that Manning would be hindered by the Seattle pass rush. In fact, he was harassed on dozens of passes, it affected his accuracy on most of those, he had to adjust the angle of his throws, he was hit just when he was throwing, passes were tipped / deflected, he was often forced to hurry his passes.

The pure stat on "sacks" is not the only factor indicative of the effect of a superior pass rush. The Seattle speed rush, superior DL and excellent LB's on artificial turf, was too fast and too powerful for the Denver offensive line, which is only average to begin with but accustomed to the easier protection on Denver's soft natural grass and at SD, KC, and Oakland, other teams in their division. The Super Bowl was too fast for Denver, Seattle has superior team speed, and the artificial turf makes it a whole different game for Denver.

A pity many will think of Manning's legacy as though this game was his failure. He was like Sonny Corleone at the toll booth back there.

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Credit where credit is due, MB knocked this one out of the park.

Not much discussed, but man, how old did Champ Bailey look? Baldwin ate his lunch early on with some critical 3rd down catches.

Seattle d-line caused hell all night. Yes, the secondary is talented, but secondaries become a lot more effective when the big guys up front can get pressure.

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