Jump to content

The Wiz

Billikens.com Donor
  • Posts

    4,078
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    58

6 Followers

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male

Retained

  • Member Title
    The Wizard of Odds

Recent Profile Visitors

14,977 profile views

The Wiz's Achievements

Listener of the Streets

Listener of the Streets (6/7)

  1. I was going to let this slide by as I thought why beat on Ford anymore. And then I thought it might be a good idea to show the upside of Schertz. So the simply answer is Schertz wins more games...but you knew that already. But as I know, the computer never gives simple answers. And it is the additional info that is interesting. First interesting fact was the computer thought that at the beginning of the season the BIlls had the better team ...not because we were great but that ISU was just a so so team. Point 1...Schertz takes a so so team and moves them to NET 29 Point 2...In the 1st game of the season , I have SLU play ISU...Bills over ISU by 3 on a neutral court. Point 3...I have SLU play ISU today....ISU over The Bills by 11 on a neutral court. I could stop here but let's keep going... Point 4...Coaches now switch teams...a lot of ifs here but in the end the Coach is responsible for whatever happens...even things beyond his control. Point 5...ISU starts off promisingly with CTF but the season starts to fade due to a variety of reasons...some explainable ...some not. (not the least of which we are living in an alternate universe) ...ISU finishes 10th in MVC ahead of Valpo and UIC...no post season but Ford says he has a plan. Point 6 ... The Bills have a lot of promise and start the season well but have some things go wrong ...players missing... injuries...but continue to hang on and win some close games that don't seem winnable.(in another universe they are not winnable) KenPom adds an extra margin to the Bills spread calling it the "luck " factor. Bills finish the season in 1st place AND go on to win the A10 tourney too and get the auto bid...the NCAA still gives an at large bid to Dayton (because they can)...Bills receive a 7th seed in the bracket. Point 7...Back to the original question...who has more wins...Schertz... Bottom line... The preceding was a series of simulations. You may agree with all of it ...some of it... or none of it but in the final analysis the computer says ....we are getting a better Coach.
  2. That sounds pretty good.....Hopefully they will be taking our place as The Bills move on to the Big East.
  3. Here is the report card for the game. Since the starters play 182 min/gm (91% of the entire game) if you look at the defensive side of the report card you are essentially looking at the the starters. .................ISU............................UT................ISU...................UT ...........................OFF..................................................DEF.......... PPG............A+..8th ITN............B+...................C-.....................C- FG%...........A+..3rd ITN.............B+..................C+.....................B 3P%...........A+..11th ITN............C-...................C.......................C FT%...........A+..3rd ITN.............F-..16th WITN............................. Reb...........C+............................A-..................A.........................D+ OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb So basically, ISU has the better Offense (A vs B ) and the better Defense (B- vs C)...So why is this game EVEN? Because Utah has an A- SOS and ISU has a B-. Both teams overall are A- teams thus the game is EVEN. Bottom line....Because this game is EVEN , the computer thinks that it may be decided at the FT line...If ISU gets 20+ FTA then the game starts to swing toward ISU. The game is EVEN That is what they say No matter who wins Schertz is coming our way.
  4. Good question...Dayton has an exemption...If they were the play in team ...they would also be the home team. ...
  5. No ...this is considered a neutral game. In order to be considered a home game you have to play in the venue 3 times in a season. An extreme example of this would be if The Bills would play at The Dome at America's Center (the old Rams hangout) or the Enterprise Center (Blues) it would also be considered a neutral court. The "advantage" has to do with different sight lines, a player being "more comfortable" at home , etc. This is not some algorithm the computer invented but is a rule that the NCAA came up with for March Madness in the 1980s. The rule was put into place to prevent a team in the first 2 rounds from gaining home field advantage. Using the hypothetical from above in a real life example...The first 2 rounds of the 2026 NCAA tourney will be held at the Enterprise Center. When The Bills get their Dance ticket with CJS they will be able to play at the Enterprise Center because they will not have played a game there during the season...If they even played 1 game at the EC, the Bills would have to be put in a different venue ...because after they beat UConn in game 1 , the second game against the Illini would be considered game 3 at the EC and therefore not allowed to be played at that venue.
  6. Down to the wire....As the computer predicted before the NIT started...we wouldn't get an answer to our coaching question until the first week in April. This is the Battle for 2 days... it will be over on Tues or next Thur. After over a 2 week wait another couple of days won't matter. Doesn't this seem like it has been 2 months. The computer thinks this game may go into OT....2 A- teams that should have been Dancing will try to move into the Championship game with a victory on Tuesday. The finish line is in sight.
  7. I could have fed individual players in to the computer but instead I fed the whole roster in.... There were 6 players that the computer said could play on a Schertz team...3 sure players and 3 maybe/bench players. Of course the player it liked the best was Parker but reports say he is not coming back. Another player the computer thought would be good was Hargrove...and we know he is not coming back . Finally, there is Jimerson. If Schertz brings 5 players Jimerson and a few other ISU players might get a few min less /gm which isn't necessarily bad. If he brings 4 then Jimerson and the other ISU players could play their usual mins. On the maybe / bench players(getting about the same min they got this year).....Hughes(he would need to improve shooting inside the arc)...Thames (he would need to improve FT shooting)...Curcic (he would need to get a few more rebs) Bottom line...1 player (Jimerson) could make the cut from the entire existing roster....3 could be maybe/bench players...Thames...Hughes...Curcic....the others would not make the cut.
  8. It looks like the next piece of the puzzle is this game. While it would be interesting to see VCU play against ISU as a gauge against A-10 competition, it really isn't necessary. ISU just beat Cinn ...a team that the computer sees as an equal to Dayton...that should tell you all you need to know about ISU players competing in the A10. As I mentioned in the Cincy spread thread, ISU and Cinn (and Dayton) are both A- teams. This should also answer any NCAA questions (although a bit too late) about ISU having too weak of a schedule to be a Dancer. Schertz mentioned before Selection Sunday...if they went Dancing it would prove they belonged...if they were not selected he would use the NIT to prove that the NCAA was wrong. Finally, I am glad ISU won last night. While it seems Lville has moved on ...a loss might have given them a chance to circle back. Adding another week on not only discourages them from pursuing further but it keeps other poachers at bay also. Teams thinking about swooping in on Schertz will now think that if The Ville couldn't sign him, maybe we should look elsewhere as he seems to be taken. Bottom line...As the computer forecasted, there wouldn't be a coaching decision until the first week in April. In any case, we should have a new coach in the next 6-8 days. Tick, tick...tick...the finish line is in sight.
  9. It sounds like Lville is under pressure to hire a coach. Schertz probably told them "nothing happens till ISU loses" because Schertz reads "The Wiz" threads. Lville then sees (they too read The Wiz) that ISU is favored yet again to win tonight. We (Lville ) are not going to wait a week ...we need an answer now....they don't get an answer and decide to move on to Pitino ...a popular name in the Ville. I think at this point it would be better for ISU to win tonight....A loss might reopen the door tonight for a Cards signing. A win not only forces Lville to move on BUT also sends a hands off signal to other teams in the meantime....Other teams ..."wow this Schertz guy didn't sign with U of L we better look else where". Tick...tick...tick
  10. https://www.cardchronicle.com/2024/3/26/24112483/louisville-coaching-search-update
  11. Not sure how the money will flow...but things will change. Just think back a year or 2 ago and how difficult it was to transfer...In the next few months anybody will be able to transfer at anytime to anywhere.. Pooled money....this too will change
  12. How about this for an idea....Pooled money Give a coach a chunk of money...say $4 million and tell him $1 million is yours...the other cash is for you to spend on NIL...anything left over is yours...IF you make the Big Dance. If you don't, then the money comes back to whoever paid it...boosters, school etc. You can fiddle with the numbers and make them come out however you like but the answer is to let the Coach decide on his salary and how much he pays the players. A couple of losing seasons and it means he made some poor decisions and not just coaching decisions but money management ones and would probably be gone. I think this is where things are headed in the future.
  13. Here is a pod cast that is worth a listen. This guy is the U of L announcer, sports caster for channel 12 in Lville and recruiting analyst. More importantly, he has his finger on the pulse of the AD, boosters and fan base of UL. In this podcast he talks about the 3 candidates under consideration...Schertz, Kelsey and Holloway. He gives a 3rd party view of pro's and con's on each coach. At one point , he says he thinks Schertz would be a good fit for SLU...better than U of L. Also interesting to hear his take on the other 2 coaches. This is a must listen if you are interested in the SLU coach search (and if you're not why would you be on this thread) and you are concerned that UL is about swoop and grab our next coach. Of course, nothing is done until it's done but remember this....nothing happens till ISU loses.....tick...tick...tick https://www.12news.com/video/sports/locked-on/lo-kentucky/louisville-show/could-josh-schertz-pat-kelsey-or-shaheen-holloway-succeed-as-the-next-louisville-basketball-hc/535-60caf5ed-49b6-4881-a8e4-48df4114415e
  14. Since Holloway / Seton Hall seems to be another piece of the puzzle...I have SH over UNLV by 6 . Nothing happens till ISU loses... Tick...tick ...tick
  15. The clock is ticking... We are coming down to the wire ...in more ways than one. I am sure many on this board are not happy with the headline. If you think the Schertz deal is done, you are ok with an ISU win ...if not, you are a Bearcat fan. This is a meeting of 2 A- teams both who were wrongfully shunned by the NCAA and both who were trying to make a point. That point is ...The NCAA should have listened to their own computer.. Btw...as you may know the NCAA turns off its computer on Selection Sunday. But mine keeps going and mine shows that if today were Selection Sunday ISU would have a 57% chance to Dance. Of course that is based on a combo of NET and Selection committee. In order to overcome the humans (assuming you are not P5) you need about 70% to Dance. If you are P5, you are good to go at 50% +. Game Preview...This will be ISU toughest challenge so far in the NIT. If the computer is right, we are looking at Apr 2 or 4 as a decision day which is what the program has been showing from the beginning. As mentioned above these are 2 evenly matched teams at A-... The computer warns there is a flashing red light on Cinn... they are missing 3 players all seriously injured in the last few games ...no questionable...out for season. These players average a combined 70 min /gm. Cincy is hurting both in production and depth. Computer says if ISU can have an average game... it could turn into a blowout. Bottom line....Rule #1...Nothing happens till ISU loses...Rule #2...In case of speculation, always follow Rule #1 Tick...tick...tick
×
×
  • Create New...