The Wiz

This review will be a little different than past years because a lot has happened. In the D1 universe you have the twin effects of NIL and Portal. And we are still in the beginning stages of both. NIL continues to spiral upward like an out of control inflation that is turning college sports into Pro sports. And the Portal will soon crack wide open too. Next month, the Portal goes to court to finish what it started...unlimited transfer...anybody can transfer anywhere as much as they want....just like a regular student. Amid these twin tornadoes, the Billikens seem to be rising from the ashes. The coaching change was more than a regular coaching change...this was more like a paradigm shift. Upping the NIL so that we can compete in the portal....a coach with a different philosophy and a plan....The world has changed ...the coach has changed ...the model has changed. Of course there will be the doubters...you know them...the "Yeah, but" people. The Eeyore types who say ..."it isn't easy being a Billiken.. something always goes wrong". A decade ago we had a shift with Majerus. A shift can happen quickly, but it needs to go on long enough to become permanent. Sadly in the case of Majerus, he didn't/couldn't stay long enough to make the change a lasting one. I think another couple of years might have been enough. But Majerus was never a long term solution. Hopefully, Coach Schertz will stay long enough to make a permanent difference. Let's now move on and take a last look at this season. Again , I will take an out of the ordinary detour first...looking at some ISU data . Not only because our future is intertwined with theirs but because they were also a mid major that had issues dealing with the NCAA. ISU finished with a 28 NET....no bid. Yet on Selection Sunday, I had them as a 52% chance to Dance...essentially a coin flip. You would think 28 would be a shoo-in. The NET is just a ranking tool. It doesn't know how many teams are going to be in the selection pot. It doesn't understand how the auto bids affect the discretionary bids. It leaves all that to the humans. My computer tries to calculate the auto bids and then figure out what the chance for a team to get bid after the Selection Committee twists things around. The computer like everyone else has picked up the P5 bias. ..or as the computer calls it ...the P5 effect. The way the chance indicator is supposed to work is that if you have a 50% chance to get in, you should have a decent shot at a bid. Enter the P5 effect...If you have a 50% and are a P5 school...you do have a good chance to get in. But if you are a mid major or lower you need a 70% to have a coin flip. So here is an interesting observation. You remember, how the Committee said they were excluding ISU because they hadn't played a tough enough schedule. I think they met that requirement when they made it down to the final minute of the NIT. Nobody would say the teams they played were weak. ISU proved they were worthy of a bid. On Selection Sunday, the NCAA turns their computer off. I leave mine on. You remember earlier I said ISU chances were a coin flip (52%). I ran the numbers today which included all the games since Selection Sunday and they show ISU with a 61% chance to get in. Should be an easy pick for the Committee. But because ISU is a mid major, the computer shows that the Committee would reject ISU again today. What is the purpose of this discussion? This year's ISU could be next year's SLU...in more ways than one. OK time to get to the report card...A-10 pre conference forecast vs the finish. ..................Pre conf.............Finish 1. Day..............A......................A-.........-1 2. St. J............B+....................B...........-1 3. GM..............B+....................B..........-1 4. Duq.............B+...................B+.........even 5. VCU.............B.....................B...........even 6. St. B.............B.....................B..........even 7. Rich..............B.....................B.........even 8. UMass.........B.....................B.........even 9. GW...............B-....................C-......-3 10. Dav.............B-....................B-......even 11. Loy..............B-....................B.......+1 12. LaS............C+....................C.......-1 13. SLU............C......................C.......even 14. Fham.........C-.....................C......+1 15. RI................D+....................C......+2 Looks like the key word is parity. What I look at here is how close did I come to the forecast ..with in one is good. With in one...87%...13 of 15 A hit (even)...47%...7 of 15 4 teams did a little worse than expected 1 team much worse...GW 1 team did better than expected...RI 2 teams did a little better than expected. Parity = 9 teams within 1 notch of B (B+ to B- ) ...good but not good enough ...........= 5 teams within 1 notch of C (C to C- ) average....no one wants to be average Speaking of average....Guess which team is in the exact center of the D1 universe (#181) on my computer....The Bills....Were we good or bad this year?...It was 50-50. Bottom line...What better way to end the bottom line but with the bottom line of the Billiken Xmas poem....12/24/23 But I heard him exclaim, as he shouted out clear-- BILLIKENS WILL WIN, IT WILL BE BETTER NEXT YEAR Is it Christmas in April?.....Hopefully a bit of prophesy.

I agree. A few weeks back , I responded to the question ...How would ISU do in the A-10? (and conversely , how would SLU do in the MVC). In the simulations, it showed SLU finishing 2nd to Day. In those simulations where we played Day twice, we split with Day and tied for the conference championship. (and SLU finished 2nd from the bottom in the MVC) To the uncertainty question, there is always uncertainty BUT there are 2 things that are clear...Successful coaches have 2 qualities...they win games and they have a system. That is Schertz. Will we get 1 ISU player or 5? It doesn't matter. This was the guy that recruited and put "the five" together. Whatever he brings over, he will be able to fill in the pieces and make it work. With better facilities , more NIL money and a higher profile, he should be able to make it work even better. And yes... there are no guarantees. In Schertz's first season, where he truly started from scratch, he was 11-20. For the fans, that didn't throw in the towel, he rallied the next year with a 23-13 record. And finally for the ..."yeah but" fans he finished this year at 32-7. Of course, to those who say this is different...this is SLU....all we have to do is look back a decade and remember the hiring of HOF Coach Majerus...a coach who had never had a losing season. First season...12-19. Of course the naysayers were there with the..."I told you so". I remember early in the next season the computer started flashing red(as in big change) and I posted the highly controversial statement...we are a top 20 team. The naysayers said that I was way off...80 or 90 at best. And as the season went on the doubters would bend a little and say 60 or maybe 50 and when we finally made it 20 and below those posters disappeared (as they always do). I am sure that if we hired UConn Coach Hurley, there would be posters that would say....so he has back to back National Championships... "yeah but" can he win in the A-10. Bottom line...Doubters gonna doubt. Winners gonna win. Schertz is a winner....and he is gonna win.

Great game... I like the EVEN call even post game. Could have gone either way but at least the outcome didn't matter for Bills fans. This game was decided at the charity stripe.... 90s were wild.. ISU showed why they are 3rd ITN in FT% with a 90%...And SH showed why they are 11th in FT% matching the Trees with 90%...The difference... SH had 90% more FTA... Those extra 9 shots led to an extra 7 pts. ... That was huge in a close game. Back 3 weeks ago the computer said... Nothing happens till ISU loses... And that would probably be the 1st week in April. The computer would like to remind those without a calender that we are talking about between now and Sun (Apr 7).... Translation... New Coach by Sunday. Tick.. Tick... Tick

Different song same lyrics. Has the computer become lazy? Rather than go through the numbers , is it just spitting out EVENS. So I push the computer for an answer. It comes back and says ....ISU by a 1/16 of a point against UT and a 1/3 of a point against Seton Hall. It then asks ...What part of EVEN do you not understand? The computer did say that if ISU had 20+ FTA against UT the spread would swing in favor of ISU. In this game, the program says if ISU makes its slash (51/39/ 80) and /or wins the reb battle, the spread will swing to the ISU side. For Bills fans, it really doesn't matter...it is D Day...Decision Day. I found myself rooting for ISU. The computer's mantra has been ...nothing happens till ISU loses= nothing happens till the 1st week of April. So I resigned myself to the fact it was going to be a long tourney. It has been fun to watch a good coach with good players beat good teams. Of course , this just makes the NCAA look silly. They said that ISU played a weak schedule. Yet their own computer (NET) had ISU at 29th ITN. Ah, but they knew better. How did that work out? Before Selection Sunday, Schertz said if they made the Dance , it would prove they are a deserving team. If they didn't make the Dance, they would prove they were a deserving team. I guess he showed them BTW, even though the NET is shut down, my computer continues to spin. On selection Sunday , my computer had ISU at 52% chance to Dance. 50% is good enough for a P5 school to make it. An at large non P5 school needs 70%. 70% is the new 50% for non P5 schools who don't have an auto bid. Today ISU reached 72% ...in other words, the NCAA would select them today. It ain't easy being a mid major.

Ok ...i have fed this into the computer and here is the starting 5.... Schenk Schenck...Captain because he has an extra C Shirts...he is the clean player Shirtz...he is the dirty one Shotz....As a beer baron...he could not only play but sponsor the BVF...if you are puzzled by this choice ...ask Laverne or Shirley. And coming off the bench Schertz...our secret weapon...the one no one has heard of.

I think this sums up the game.... from the post above.... Bottom line....Because this game is EVEN , the computer thinks that it may be decided at the FT line...If ISU gets 20+ FTA then the game starts to swing toward ISU. They had 20....If you take FTM... it was ISU 14 to UT 5...pretty much the difference in the game.

And don't forget the "Shirts".

Wait...which Schenk are you talking about ...1 "c " Schenk or 2 "c" Schenck?

The Bills playing Utah tonight at Hinkle...UT over the Bills by 11 and that assumes SLU is able to force 9 TOs. If you want to extrapolate that...UT by 11 over Bills....ISU over UT by 10...ISU over the Bills by 21...and one last one...24-25 Bills over 23-24 Bills by 21

I asked the computer about the 3.5 line. It said that ISU might be able to cover it after the OT.

The computer thought the Illini were lucky to beat Ia St. Illni vs UConn? The computer said ...No Champagne

Hopefully CJS turns into the next RM. Schertz does have 3 advantages over 1st year RM. First is, he is bringing some of his own players...players who know, understand and have executed his system. Second, their is the portal where he can bring in players that fit his system. The portal is more valuable when you know exactly what you need as opposed to...this guy seems pretty good. And finally NIL...Again, instead of just throwing money at players...pay just for what you need. Will things work out this way? We will know in a few days....tick ...tick ...tick

Ah...OG pooh poohing AI when he (and we) may just be the just the latest iteration of AI. Kind of like Pacman and Mario Brothers trying to figure out the world.

You are right ...computers use past data to make forecasts. And people tend to do the same things over and over hoping for different results. After awhile the changes become predictable too....Let's keep the weave going a little longer and see if we can generate some more offense. As the computer gathers more data on players and coaches, games become more predictable. Once I have 8 games under my belt, I can start to zero in on outcomes. As for the "people" part, that will become less important as Artificial Intelligence reaches singularity and the machines become smarter than us. Machines may be the Coaches of the future. But even before that happens , AI will take over the message boards. There will be an AI Old Guy. It will study the thought patterns and writing style of Old Guy and then produce OG posts ...nonstop... causing all AI MBMs to put AI OG on ignore. Of course, there could be an AI Wiz ...or has that already happened.....HAL is that you??

I was going to let this slide by as I thought why beat on Ford anymore. And then I thought it might be a good idea to show the upside of Schertz. So the simply answer is Schertz wins more games...but you knew that already. But as I know, the computer never gives simple answers. And it is the additional info that is interesting. First interesting fact was the computer thought that at the beginning of the season the BIlls had the better team ...not because we were great but that ISU was just a so so team. Point 1...Schertz takes a so so team and moves them to NET 29 Point 2...In the 1st game of the season , I have SLU play ISU...Bills over ISU by 3 on a neutral court. Point 3...I have SLU play ISU today....ISU over The Bills by 11 on a neutral court. I could stop here but let's keep going... Point 4...Coaches now switch teams...a lot of ifs here but in the end the Coach is responsible for whatever happens...even things beyond his control. Point 5...ISU starts off promisingly with CTF but the season starts to fade due to a variety of reasons...some explainable ...some not. (not the least of which we are living in an alternate universe) ...ISU finishes 10th in MVC ahead of Valpo and UIC...no post season but Ford says he has a plan. Point 6 ... The Bills have a lot of promise and start the season well but have some things go wrong ...players missing... injuries...but continue to hang on and win some close games that don't seem winnable.(in another universe they are not winnable) KenPom adds an extra margin to the Bills spread calling it the "luck " factor. Bills finish the season in 1st place AND go on to win the A10 tourney too and get the auto bid...the NCAA still gives an at large bid to Dayton (because they can)...Bills receive a 7th seed in the bracket. Point 7...Back to the original question...who has more wins...Schertz... Bottom line... The preceding was a series of simulations. You may agree with all of it ...some of it... or none of it but in the final analysis the computer says ....we are getting a better Coach.