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sludevil

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Sophomore (3/7)

  1. Two years feels like the lower bound for the ACC's remaining lifespan. The court cases will probably take at least a year or two to play out - and then the result would have to be favorable to FSU/Clemson (i.e., something less than $572 million in total exit fees, as estimated by FSU). Duke football has been solid recently (minus the dip at the end of the Cutcliffe era), but has historically been very bad. Duke is also missing the large alumni base + linear cable value of the big state schools like UNC and UVA. But there's not a whole lot to be done about that - gotta just play the cards you're dealt and hope the B10/SEC sees the case for expansion.
  2. I agree that it sucks, but I don't think the Dookies will have much say in the matter. The only saving grace is that the ACC's implosion is probably (hopefully?) at least a few years off, which gives Duke some time to continue dumping money into the football program. But ultimately I think the interests of Duke and SLU are somewhat aligned here: both need basketball to drive a larger portion of media value. To that end, Brett Yormark and other like-minded folks (who view basketball as undervalued) are incredibly important. In a best-case scenario, the B12's media deal comes up again before the ACC implodes, and the B12 provides a proof-of-concept of decoupling (and pushing more value towards) basketball in that next deal. Unfortunately, though, a lot has to go right for that to happen.
  3. Based on my borderline-obsessive following of conference realignment over the last few years, I'd rank the ACC schools as follows: 1. Definitely safe (i.e., bound for the B10/SEC): UNC, UVA, FSU, Clemson 2. On the bubble: Miami, VT, GT, NCSU 3. Not looking good, but unlikely to drop below the B12-level: Duke, Louisville 4. Definitely screwed: Wake, Syracuse, BC The info on Pitt has been all over the place, but my best guess is that they're in group 3. However, groups 2 and 3 are far more fluid/interchangeable than groups 1 and 4, both of which are more or less carved in stone. (And just for completeness: if we're counting ND as an ACC member, then they get their own group 1A.) EDIT: And for further completeness, the new additions (Cal, Stanford, SMU) are probably somewhere between groups 3 and 4. (Group 3.5?) Still very strange to to me that California schools will be playing in the ACC.
  4. It's just a human response. And we could very well be in the same boat in a few years if Schertz does well here. I definitely feel for ISU. It's just a really bad chain of events: (1) get snubbed by the NCAA committee (in favor of a hilariously underqualified UVA team?), (2) transfer portal opens and (3) lose your coach to a fellow mid-major. Basically have to start from scratch, and you don't even get the national exposure that would've come with Cream Abdul-Jabbar in the tourney. (With that said, I'm excited as hell for this hire and hope he brings some of the ISU players with him.)
  5. 100%. Though independence is becoming increasingly difficult even for ND, who are now getting financially squeezed via the bad ACC media deal and via the new CFP deal. (And their NBC deal is probably not good enough to bridge the gap.) As with the ACC's implosion, I think ND joining a conference (presumably the B10) is now a matter of "when" rather than "if".
  6. Also depends on the legal requirements that are in place when the dust settles. If schools are forced to treat players as employees (and/or share revenue with players), then that probably creates another massive shock. The only real guarantee is that the top B10 and SEC teams will be fine. Everyone else (including the "lesser" teams in the B10/SEC) is on less solid footing.
  7. Very true. I should've clarified that the ACC is dead as a "power" conference. Something will happen with the ACC and the B12 - either a combination of some sort, or just a handful of ACC teams joining the B12. (And there's probably even room for a tier below that with WSU/OSU + the ACC leftovers, if any + maybe the better AAC/MWC teams. There are lots of possibilities, but all of them are far worse for the teams involved than when we had a true P5 structure.)
  8. That's effectively what's happening, though FSU filed in Florida and Clemson in South Carolina. Their legal arguments are also different: FSU is basically going for broke (i.e., GoR should be thrown out), while Clemson is taking a somewhat more nuanced approach (i.e., once we exit the conference, the GoR no longer applies to us). It sure looks like FSU and Clemson coordinated their suits and arguments - so if they can't win on FSU's case, they may be able to use Clemson's case as a fallback. And, of course, defending suits on multiple fronts will further pressure the ACC to settle. In any event, the ACC is dead. It's just a matter of time.
  9. Agreed. Can only assume Tony Bennet has some crazy dirt on the selection committee.
  10. I think the large majority of P6 positions are viewed as superior to SLU, though I agree with your take on Vandy. But perhaps the bigger issue is that the pool of HC candidates isn't fixed. A "stud" candidate can simply choose to stay at his current job (probably with a substantial pay raise) if he doesn't see the value in leaving for SLU right now (e.g., SLU isn't enough of a step up, or he thinks a better opportunity will present itself in the future). We're playing against the field of current openings + the field of potential openings over the next ~year.
  11. For what it's worth, the latest from Trilly Donovan: "The buyout is large, but it sounds like Saint Louis will have the money. Does Chris May go too?"
  12. Per Brett McMurphy, Heeke was fired for "financial & operational mismanagement, resulting in an athletic department financial 'disaster,' loss of major donors & mishandling of former coach Jedd Fisch's contract".
  13. It isn't clear where the info is sourced from - but he has a strong track record on things like this, and he tends to avoid posting rumors that he hasn't independently confirmed. It's certainly encouraging for those of us who would like to see a change.
  14. Trilly Donovan noting today that it’s “tournament or bust” for Ford. Seems promising (and definitive).
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