Jump to content

End of February Bracetology


Taj79

Recommended Posts

With March beckoning this Sunday, Madness is nearly upon us. What does St. Joe's Joe say?

Three A10 teams now making the list: VCU, Dayton and now Davidson.

VCU is a #6 and plays Temple in Pittsburgh.

Dayton is a #10 and plays Providence in Portland (Yikes for both teams in terms of travel).

Dayton is one of the last four to get a bye and miss the First Four. Would that really be fair if they do have to play in and get a home game? Rhode Island is in the next four out listing so they are in desperate need to win the A10 tourney in order to get in if you ask me.

Davidson is one of the last four in and gets Texas in beautiful downtown Dayton on opening night. Win and move on to play Wichita State in Columbus. At least a short hour ride back up I-70.

Big Ten and Big Twelve get 7 bids each to lead. Big East gets six bids (Nova, Xavier, Providence, Butler, Georgetown and St. John's).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Damn, Columbus again. Such sweet memories of 2012. A jam packed alumni reception with enthusiastic slightly tipsy Bills fans. A chance to meet a lot of posters. The upset of A very hot Memphis team. A lot of local folks, ne OSU fans, pulling for the Bills against MSU, which was a great game. The last game RM would ever coach. And who can forget Conk's tear filled farewell? Just a great time to be a Billikens fan. Will we ever see anything like it again any time soon?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Damn, Columbus again. Such sweet memories of 2012. A jam packed alumni reception with enthusiastic slightly tipsy Bills fans. A chance to meet a lot of posters. The upset of A very hot Memphis team. A lot of local folks, ne OSU fans, pulling for the Bills against MSU, which was a great game. The last game RM would ever coach. And who can forget Conk's tear filled farewell? Just a great time to be a Billikens fan. Will we ever see anything like it again any time soon?

Best sporting weekend of my life....from what I can remember....
Link to comment
Share on other sites

How do you guys think the A-10 NCAA teams compares with the other conferences? I feel like the A-10 doesnt have enough big men to compete with the other conferences.

Dayton, VCU, Davidson all have little "in the paint" presence. I am not feeling a good showing in the tourney for the A10 this year...

Thoughts?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How do you guys think the A-10 NCAA teams compares with the other conferences? I feel like the A-10 doesnt have enough big men to compete with the other conferences.

Dayton, VCU, Davidson all have little "in the paint" presence. I am not feeling a good showing in the tourney for the A10 this year...

Thoughts?

Davidson can shoot their way past anyone. VCU's style is perfect for making a run or a first round loss (Stephen F Austin). Dayton - I have no idea. I think eventually their short bench and lack of size will kill them but maybe with a good matchup they could win a game.

That said, I'm not expecting anything huge this year. Matchups mean everything, but as of now it's hard to expect a Sweet 16.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@Nick: I projected a Dayton collapse with six scholarship players (I don't and won't count Wehrli) and that has not happened just yet. Arch is doing it with mirrors and the residual that comes with a tournament savvy team. One thing Dayton does do is stick to their unselfish style (what options do they have) and impose their will on the other team in that the other team has to stop them. This happens to go afoul at times (see, Duquesne) and while Dayton might win one game in the Dance, I don't see two wins in their future.

VCU is not the VCU of the recent past. Yes, they have adjusted to losing Weber but they are just not the same team without him disrupting the other team's flow. Lewis is doing well enough offensively (Weber's scoring was gravy IMO) but he is just not the same in terms of defense. And that is hard on VCU because I still don't think they are that well skilled in the arts of basketball. If you force them into a half-court game, they are not that scary. Graham is streaky as is Johnson and Burgess. Their bigs are more endline stoppers on the defensive end more than anything else. VCU goes as Havoc goes and that means turnovers which Lewis is not igniting as Weber did. Plus Lewis was a good sub for Weber. I do not think Brooks or Williams give to VCU when replacing Lewis what Lewis did in replacing Weber. Call it chemistry. The issue will be Havoc; if they can use that to surprise some opponents, they might get to the Sweet Sixteen. But I doubt it. It will all be on the draw and place they get.

I don't know Davidson much and have not seen them play at all this year. I guess the Charlotte area is well outside my viewing area's preferences so I get all the Mason, Richmond, VCU and GeeDubya stuff but not the Wildcats. And I get all the Philly stuff and some NYC stuff. But not so much in terms of Umass or Rhode Island unless they are with the others. Davidson's top four guys are all 6'4" and under. You can win with that (see the Bills of Claggett and Highmark) but eventually (I think) you'll run out of steam when those exterior shots aren't falling and there is nothing to compenstae on the inside. They could win one; they could two. Doubt they project much further but you never know.

Again some subscribe to the theory that college is a guards' game. These three teams all have guards, I just think for a national title you need to have more balance than any of these show right now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How do you guys think the A-10 NCAA teams compares with the other conferences? I feel like the A-10 doesnt have enough big men to compete with the other conferences.

Dayton, VCU, Davidson all have little "in the paint" presence. I am not feeling a good showing in the tourney for the A10 this year...

Thoughts?

It's all a crap shoot when you get past teams seeded 1-3. The A-10 last year did "OK" largely because Dayton won 3 games and we won 1. Yet Dayton escaped a first round 50/50 game against Ohio St. and we all remember how fortunate we were to advance. On the flip side, VCU blew a 4 point lead with seconds left and who knows how far they could have gone. St. Joes had a 6 point lead in the final minute before losing to the eventual champs in UConn. Embrace the randomness of it.

We will be lucky to get 3 teams this year and honestly, I'd be happy with 2 wins from the 3 teams..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Davidson can shoot their way past anyone. VCU's style is perfect for making a run or a first round loss (Stephen F Austin). Dayton - I have no idea. I think eventually their short bench and lack of size will kill them but maybe with a good matchup they could win a game.

That said, I'm not expecting anything huge this year. Matchups mean everything, but as of now it's hard to expect a Sweet 16.

Good teams with veteran players and good coaches can easily deal with and defeat VCU's "Havoc" (Gimmick). VCU will no longer sneak up on anyone. There is plenty of video out there of teams beating Gimmick, Exhibit A is our Billikens the previous 2 years, especially the '12-'13 team. Cody Ellis was SLU's secret weapon in defeating Gimmick. I miss Cody's good work. He was great at getting under the skin of the opponents and their fans. This year's SLU team outplayed VCU in St. Louis and should have won that first meeting.

Exhibit B is Stephen F. Austin from the low con Southland Conference in the '14 NCAA in San Diego. To each his own, but I'm not betting the farm or anything else on VCU.

For different reasons, Gonzaga is a longtime bracket buster, years of NCAA disappointments. Gonzaga simply does not play NCAA Tournament caliber defense after dominating the mid-major WCC year after year.

I don't see Dayton going far playing only 7 players, one a former walk-on, and none taller than 6'6". SLU could have defeated Dayton in St. Louis.

Newcomer Davidson relies on the 3's. But if you live by the 3, you die by the 3.

Per a pure following of this morning's RPI, the conference breakdown of NCAA teams would be: Big 12 and ACC 7; Big East 6; Big Ten, Pac-12, and SEC 5; A10, American and Mountain West 3, and MVC 2. Everyone else, 22 conferences, would be Juan Bid leagues.

I do not believe the #12 RPI Mountain West will get 3 NCAA teams, and am sure room will be made for at least one more Big Ten team to make 6. So I subtract #40 Boise State and add #54 Iowa.

Per the RPI, the Last 4 IN are 45 Ole Miss (SEC), 47 Texas (Big XII), 50 UCLA (Pac-12) and 51 Stanford (Pac-12). The First 4 OUT are 52 Cincinnati (American), 53 St. Mary's (WCC, which is perpetually on the Bubble), 54 Iowa (Big Ten, but I think Iowa is IN as of today) and 55 LSU (SEC). The Next 4 OUT are 56 BYU (WCC), 57 Louisiana Tech (C-USA), 59 Purdue (Big Ten) and 60 UMass (A10).

The A10 remains #7 in Conference RPI. SLU's RPI is regrettably an A10 worst 237. SLU has been jockeying RPI spots with the likes of Fordham and Duquesne. A win Saturday night over George Mason (RPI 218) would help the SLU cause and allow it to vacate the Cellar.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking forward to not being ###### by the committee for the first time in two years

???

SLU was 6 and a 4 seed the last two years. The A-10 has received 11 bids in the last two years. There is a long history of favorable A-10 selection and seeding.

The A-10 will definitely get 2 teams in this year but very likely 3 (4 still possible). Davidson has a good RPI and a middling profile (not a lot of top 50 games, but they do have 9 road wins so that will get them in over most teams if they are right on the bubble). They do not need to win out to get an at-large although they are definitely bubbling right now.

I think a lot of other teams have ok chances of winning in Brooklyn.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SLU was a 4 Seed in San Jose in '13. From the SLU perspective, the issue with that bracket was the NCAA underseeding Oregon as a 12 seed to fill seats in San Jose, which underseeding the NCAA admitted, and which spawned a SLU-Oregon 3rd (2nd) Round of 32 matchup in Pac-12 Country, with Cal also there in San Jose, and an unholy Pac-12 solidarity alliance formed between the two. SLU was the highest seed in San Jose, which meant the SLU fans were permitted to sit behind the SLU Bench and the SLU Pep Band played the National Anthem.

SLU was a 5 Seed in Orlando in '14. The problem there was Louisville, the Defending National Champion, was given the 4 Seed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

???

SLU was 6 and a 4 seed the last two years. The A-10 has received 11 bids in the last two years. There is a long history of favorable A-10 selection and seeding.

The A-10 will definitely get 2 teams in this year but very likely 3 (4 still possible). Davidson has a good RPI and a middling profile (not a lot of top 50 games, but they do have 9 road wins so that will get them in over most teams if they are right on the bubble). They do not need to win out to get an at-large although they are definitely bubbling right now.

I think a lot of other teams have ok chances of winning in Brooklyn.

Edit: BAB covered it in the above post

I think he was referring to our unlucky second round matchups. Many people considered Louisville a 2 seed last season...was pretty crazy that they ended up a 4. Same with Oregon ending up a 12. We did get favorable treatment in terms of seeding though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On a related note from the other end of the RPI spectrum, SLU must seriously upgrade its non-conference schedule next season. I am fully aware of the reasons for this cupcake schedule this year, with SLU knowing it would have a very inexperienced team. But look at these non-con RPI's:

Wichita State 14 (SLU is playing next season), South Dakota State 80, Vanderbilt 109, Indiana State 177, Mississippi State 188, Vermont 196, TAMUCC 227, SIUE 281, Bradley 285, SIUC 286, Texas Pan American 332, NC A&T 340. Rockhurst is D-2.

A10 RPI's: VCU 13, Dayton 35, Davidson 41, UMass 60, Richmond 66, Rhode Island 71, George Washington 89, LaSalle 98, St. Bona 126, St. Joe's 169, George Mason 218, Fordham 223, Duquesne 233, SLU 237.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Edit: BAB covered it in the above post

I think he was referring to our unlucky second round matchups. Many people considered Louisville a 2 seed last season...was pretty crazy that they ended up a 4. Same with Oregon ending up a 12. We did get favorable treatment in terms of seeding though.

Match-ups, yes. Locations, also yes. Don't remember being thrilled watching the Selection Show last two years

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Outside of the terrible Corpus Christi tournament, the schedule is fine. Mississippi State, Bradley, TA&MCC, and NCA&T are all from this tournament. Dayton played in the Maui Invitational last year. Don't see why we can't get in a tourney like that. Continue playing WSU and Vandy as long as they're willing. Continue the home and home with SIUC and 2-for-1 with SIUE. Continue the buy games against teams like South Dakota State and Vermont. They should drop a buy game like UTPA for a better home and home. If they need a certain number of home games, then drop the Indiana State series for someone better. Perhaps we scheduled the UTPA game at the last minute, because that was the date that we keep open each year for Mi$$ou or Illinoi$.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We got shafted with the Oregon seed. Still, going like 2 for 15 on 3's absolutely killed us while OU shot a season's best from 3 land. Against UL we went 0-15 from three land and we were playing undermanned, ie no bench. Still, we got the lead early in the second half but just ran out of gas against their press.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Must be the committees fault for giving us a tough 2nd round opponent!

You have hit some proverbial nails on their heads.

Tight rims? Just kidding.

In any event, I was at all 3 of the games in question, Oregon and Louisville being particularly troubling. I remember watching that NBA ribbon board in Orlando, and that 0 (the goose egg on SLU made 3's) would just not change. We were asking for Mike Crawford; our requests were not granted.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We got shafted with the Oregon seed. Still, going like 2 for 15 on 3's absolutely killed us while OU shot a season's best from 3 land. Against UL we went 0-15 from three land and we were playing undermanned, ie no bench. Still, we got the lead early in the second half but just ran out of gas against their press.

Correct slu72: SLU led Louisville 29-27 in '14 with 14:13 left in the game.

Oregon was on fire in '13 in San Jose, in reality was nowhere near that good, but regrettably was that day.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...