The Wiz Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 First , a great win by the Bills over NFU...for a wrapup see the Bills by 3 thread..... Now we go from the frying pan to the fire with Lville. The Bills are still B-. . SLU's numbers improved with the win over NFU and a good showing against the Cards (doesn't have to be a win) could move us up to a B. The problem is Lville is an A+ team. Here is why the spread is so wide. Even though Lville lost 83% of its scoring from last year (this is a "rebuilding" year) this is one of the best "early" teams Lville has had under Pitino....early means after 4 games. Generally, Pitino teams start slowly as they have to learn a complex system and get into shape as they build their stamina. This team seems to be gelling faster. Even though the schedule wasn't the toughest and even though all games were at home and even though I only have half the data I need at this point....the numbers are still staggering. Off 86.8 ppg 52 FG% ...13th in nation 38% 3pt % 48.5 rpg...10th in nation Def 49.8 ppg...2nd in nation 29.2 FG%...2nd in nation 28.4 3pt% 25.5 rpg....10th in nation This is a typical Lville team ...tall, athletic, lots of depth and stamina, pressing D....a team that uses all that to wear you down. NFU hung with them for a half then the Cards wore them down...typical game Here is what we need to do to win..... Hold them to a slashline of under 40% FG and under 30% 3pt. They are a decent 3 pt team but they are no NFU...if we bother them they will miss....btw they can't shoot FTs No second chances when they are shooting...we have to keep their shooting to one and done as much as possible...positioning The Bills slashline ....45/33/70 Many times Lville has a clunker or 2 before conference play....away games, over confidence, not fully focused, new players still adjusting, etc They are due for the clunker. Bottomline...We played a great game against NFU...we now need to step it up and bring our A+ game.... This game will be a success if we can hold the margin to single digits....win or lose Go Bills Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prebilliken Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Great prediction Wiz. Good stuff this season. I don't personally believe in the philosophy of a "good loss." I think that things can be learned in life, business, politics, sports, ect, from defeat, but I'm not sure that necessarily makes the negative result good. The process can be good... All that being said... I would LOVE to see the young Bills play confidently, not back down from a large physical team, and get a moral boost from a W or L. My brain says UL by 15, my heart hopes for UL by 7, that would be a good loss. Because of the Brooklyn Hoops tourney, their schedule has been very comparable to ours, they are smacking around the soft opponents. I would truly enjoy if they look past this game and stumble. Nothing would make the Thanksgiving week better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Hello Wiz, first of all I agree it is not realistic to expect a win against Louisville. They would have to have the whole team contracting gastroenteritis from eating something bad the night prior to the game before we had a really solid chance to beat them with a respectable margin. However, things may not be that bad if you look at them from a certain point of view: Louisville has beaten every team they have played so far. They have won their games by 41, 35, 28, and 44 points (in order of occurrence). However so far they have played no one anywhere near their standing level. The best team they have played so far, North Florida, they beat by only 28 points. I am not saying that North Florida is a bad team, but we just beat them by 13. So, let's project this to the Louisville game (which of course is not statistically correct) and pretend that our players will be able perform as they did against North Florida. We may still be beaten by them, but the difference in points between the 28 point margin they got against North Florida and the 13 point margin we got against North Florida is only 15. So comparing our presumable performance by the way we played against North Florida, we are 15 points behind Louisville. We can do the same for the games we played (both Louisville and SLU) against St. Francis and Hartford, in these cases Louisville was 28 (St. Francis) and 24 (Hartford) points ahead of SLU. So now, if we play at the same level we played against North Florida a loss by 15 or so appears doable, and if we manage to get ourselves really into beating Louisville, we may do even better. The point is that a loss against Louisville in the single digits will advance us in the standings, as well as in your ratings. On the other extreme, a loss over 25 or so will sink us. A loss between 15-20 is likely to have little impact in our standings, or so I hope. So, let's hope we manage to do well against Louisville and advance significantly in the ratings. Yes, I know hope is subjective, not objective. We will see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2010andBeyond Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 I like this game because almost all outcomes will be somewhat positive. The one bad scenario is getting ran out of the gym by 25+ and exposing us as still having a long way to go to get back to respectability. Lose by 15-25 but at least hang around for awhile and that could show the guys they still have a lot more work to do and hopefully provide motivation to put in that work. Lose by less than 15 and we are probably where we should be but are close enough to the next level that continued improvement could result in a surprisingly good season. Win by any margin, fill the beer bong with blue koolaid and start making your March plans now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scoop Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Screw this 15 to 25 point crap. Let's go give em' a game! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted November 25, 2015 Author Share Posted November 25, 2015 Hello Wiz, first of all I agree it is not realistic to expect a win against Louisville. They would have to have the whole team contracting gastroenteritis from eating something bad the night prior to the game before we had a really solid chance to beat them with a respectable margin. However, things may not be that bad if you look at them from a certain point of view: Louisville has beaten every team they have played so far. They have won their games by 41, 35, 28, and 44 points (in order of occurrence). However so far they have played no one anywhere near their standing level. The best team they have played so far, North Florida, they beat by only 28 points. I am not saying that North Florida is a bad team, but we just beat them by 13. So, let's project this to the Louisville game (which of course is not statistically correct) and pretend that our players will be able perform as they did against North Florida. We may still be beaten by them, but the difference in points between the 28 point margin they got against North Florida and the 13 point margin we got against North Florida is only 15. So comparing our presumable performance by the way we played against North Florida, we are 15 points behind Louisville. We can do the same for the games we played (both Louisville and SLU) against St. Francis and Hartford, in these cases Louisville was 28 (St. Francis) and 24 (Hartford) points ahead of SLU. So now, if we play at the same level we played against North Florida a loss by 15 or so appears doable, and if we manage to get ourselves really into beating Louisville, we may do even better. The point is that a loss against Louisville in the single digits will advance us in the standings, as well as in your ratings. On the other extreme, a loss over 25 or so will sink us. A loss between 15-20 is likely to have little impact in our standings, or so I hope. So, let's hope we manage to do well against Louisville and advance significantly in the ratings. Yes, I know hope is subjective, not objective. We will see. So what you are saying is if you do a simple 1 dimensional dot to dot connection (SLU/ NFU/ Lville) you come up with 15 points...If I connect SLU's 4 game opponents to SLU AND everyone they have played plus Lville's 4 opp and everyone they have played plua a forecasting model plus some team and player stats....it adds 2 more points to the total for 17. Your connection works now but down the road you will still have a few dots and I will have millions of dots plus a lot of other data which should lead to more accuracy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted November 25, 2015 Author Share Posted November 25, 2015 I like this game because almost all outcomes will be somewhat positive. The one bad scenario is getting ran out of the gym by 25+ and exposing us as still having a long way to go to get back to respectability. Lose by 15-25 but at least hang around for awhile and that could show the guys they still have a lot more work to do and hopefully provide motivation to put in that work. Lose by less than 15 and we are probably where we should be but are close enough to the next level that continued improvement could result in a surprisingly good season. Win by any margin, fill the beer bong with blue koolaid and start making your March plans now. I agree ....not much to losr and everything to gain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 So what you are saying is if you do a simple 1 dimensional dot to dot connection (SLU/ NFU/ Lville) you come up with 15 points...If I connect SLU's 4 game opponents to SLU AND everyone they have played plus Lville's 4 opp and everyone they have played plua a forecasting model plus some team and player stats....it adds 2 more points to the total for 17. Your connection works now but down the road you will still have a few dots and I will have millions of dots plus a lot of other data which should lead to more accuracy. I fully agree, what I saying is not a deep or valid analysis over the long run. But it is simple to articulate and covers most of the basis for the Louisville game. Your model is, without question, more analytical and more exact than my simple on the fly post. What my post does reflect is the feeling of goodness, relief, and happiness I experienced after last night's game. More of a quasi analytical wishful thinking analysis. Yes, there will be millions of dots to connect and a lot more data to take into account, but it is OK to feel whimsical and playful (in a quasi analystical fashion) from time to time, don't you think? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwyjibo Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 So, if SLU is an objective 17 point underdog to an unranked (but really close!) team and they win, does that make it a "storm-the-court" worthy event? I need to know as I believe people here have said it needs to be a ranked foe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted November 25, 2015 Author Share Posted November 25, 2015 So, if SLU is an objective 17 point underdog to an unranked (but really close!) team and they win, does that make it a "storm-the-court" worthy event? I need to know as I believe people here have said it needs to be a ranked foe. I have Lville as a top 10 team right now...so definitely a storm event...You have my permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Teamrankings has Louisville at #4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billikenboy Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 I gonna say it now...SLU by 8. Our defense will cause a major problem for them and out turnovers will be very low. Expect a low scoring game as well. Total team effort in this one. Go Bills Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dwayne's_World Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 I gonna say it now...SLU by 8. Our defense will cause a major problem for them and out turnovers will be very low. Expect a low scoring game as well. Total team effort in this one. Go Bills You're joking right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenfan05 Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 You're joking right?Some people enjoy having a positive outlook Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dwayne's_World Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Some people enjoy having a positive outlook Realistic outlooks? There's a significant difference between saying what you "hope will happen" and what you "think will happen"..... Do I hope we win by 8? Absolutely. Do I think we win by 8? I've been given no reason whatsoever to think we could even pull off a margin that wide against one of the best teams in the country. Does that somehow make me a terrible fan? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenfan05 Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Realistic outlooks? There's a significant difference between saying what you "hope will happen" and what you "think will happen".....I said positive. This is sports anything can happen. It really doesn't matter what you or I think or hope to be honest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenbill Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 I gonna say it now...SLU by 8. Our defense will cause a major problem for them and out turnovers will be very low. Expect a low scoring game as well. Total team effort in this one. Go Bills The 'ville can win by 30, we can win by one. As The Wiz says, it'll be mid-teens, plus or minus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Dwayne's_World it goes like this, realistically we will lose, the question is by how much. However you cannot say there is NO WAY we will win either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 I have Lville as a top 10 team right now...so definitely a storm event...You have my permission. No, this is when you rush the court against Louisville. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Basketbill Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 the whimpering Earl Austin is hilarious..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 the whimpering Earl Austin is hilarious..... That is what makes the clip historic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Basketbill Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Bills vs Louisville lets #makeEarlAustinWhimperAgain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Basketbill Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 That is what makes the clip historic. agreed it is Classic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiseAndGrind Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 I said positive. This is sports anything can happen. It really doesn't matter what you or I think or hope to be honest. . Really? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenfan05 Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 ######. Really? It's the same people who think that what we say on the board matters when it comes to overlooking teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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