Anyone want to stick with 12 or less wins

[slufanskip]

Obviously only 4 games but I'm curious if anyone who picked us for 12 or less wins would adjust their prediction today if they could.

I bet I could have made some cash had I been smart enough to offer a bet that the Bills would be averaging over 75 points a game after 4 games. No way I would have predicted that

[Quality Is Job 1]

Obviously only 4 games but I'm curious if anyone who picked us for 12 or less wins would adjust their prediction today if they could.

I bet I could have made some cash had I been smart enough to offer a bet that the Bills would be averaging over 75 points a game after 4 games. No way I would have predicted that

I don't like doing the preseason record projections, but I saw around 14-16 wins, including tonight's game, hoping that they would avoid any stinkers and maybe put together a few surprises. I saw (and see) 9-3 in the non-conference, but A-10 will be a different beast. As for the gaudy point totals, I'm definitely stunned. But this year's team is not last year's team, as many feared. (So would folks PLEASE stop calling for Crews's head?)

[Old guy]

I do not think anyone could have predicted that with confidence, until the actual playing started.

[thetorch]

I won't shy away from my predictions.

I didn't see this much improvement from Ash and Reynolds. I'm still not sold on this team being able to replicate this play against A10 competition which I think my be the best top to bottom it has been since we've been in the conference.

This team is fragile emotionally. I want to see how they handle playing after they lose. Will they collapse like they did in conference last year or are they resillient?

[jbizzle09]

I'm still sticking with my prediction of 22 wins, including post season.

[Clock_Tower]

I won't shy away from my predictions.

I didn't see this much improvement from Ash and Reynolds. I'm still not sold on this team being able to replicate this play against A10 competition which I think my be the best top to bottom it has been since we've been in the conference.

This team is fragile emotionally. I want to see how they handle playing after they lose. Will they collapse like they did in conference last year or are they resillient?

What support do you have to call this team "fragile emotionally"?

[majerus mojo]

What support do you have to call this team "fragile emotionally"?

Watching the effort level in some disastrous games last season

[Taj79]

The first three games were expected and there have been surprises. Right now, they've won the two I thought they would and won two games I had at 50/50. So they are plus 2 on my ledger. I second torch's question because a lot of ills are covered up when winning.

I'd say Yacoubou has decided to up his play ---- his senior year, he is looking for post-collegiate employment and doing well. Reynolds has shown much more than anyone could have expected but he is still the one-trick pony showing no signs of an exterior shooting ability. But he has time. Agbeko has played maddeningly well at times and equally bad at times, but those having expressed hope for the former can keep those fires burning. He remains the only guy on the front line of traditional bigs with the ilk that can rebound it seems. Crawford has been workmanlike. Gillmann appears the same as last year. Jolly got all the time he deserved last night. Neufeld shows promise but is the proverbial work in progress. Roby and Bartley seemed to regress although Davell did well last night. Bartley too with his threes. Yarbrough is still a man without a position ---- inside presence or point guard? He does see the court almost the best of all so that a positive, however, him bringing the ball up at times is scary especially when he decides to not make foul shots late or get out of control. But that's being picky -- it hasn't hurt us yet.

The biggest thing I see so far is the mental game. Louisville will bring a stern test but based on so far,it should be a decent game and a win is indeed possible. Let's see how they react to the big lights on a big city stage come Saturday. There is no substitute for momentum --- and that goes both ways with torch's comment. Too soon to tell but trending positive right now. Who knows, maybe UNF is the ISU of last year; maybe UNF solidifies the psyche going forward.

As for UNF, they fell apart down the stretch as they did at Louisville. They ran out of gas especially when they lost the one kid to the inadvertent Roby elbow. They only go 7 deep and when they tired, they lost their legs and that is what you shoot with. Beech really did not look good --- yet last year a guy like Beech would have played memorably like some of those Vermont and South Dakota kids did. So kudos to the adjustments. Are the adjustments Crews? Not sure but still don't believe Crews is the man going forward.

All in all, an extremely positive start but a lot of "show me" still to go.

[BillikenNorm]

I won't shy away from my predictions.

I didn't see this much improvement from Ash and Reynolds. I'm still not sold on this team being able to replicate this play against A10 competition which I think my be the best top to bottom it has been since we've been in the conference.

This team is fragile emotionally. I want to see how they handle playing after they lose. Will they collapse like they did in conference last year or are they resillient?

[BillikenNorm]

Agreed, I hope we don't see the complaints about PT when the losses come and I would love to see MY turn into a leader rather than a head hanger. He should be the one rallying the troops, instead when things get tough he is currently best suited on the bench collecting himself. Finally played like a team last night though and it was fun to watch!

[cheeseman]

I won't shy away from my predictions.

I didn't see this much improvement from Ash and Reynolds. I'm still not sold on this team being able to replicate this play against A10 competition which I think my be the best top to bottom it has been since we've been in the conference.

This team is fragile emotionally. I want to see how they handle playing after they lose. Will they collapse like they did in conference last year or are they resillient?

Ok I will bite - how on earth do you know that this team is fragile - what have you seen that makes you think that? The fact that they just keep fighting back in games even after they have lost decent leads shows me just the opposite if anything.

[Billfan78]

The first three games were expected and there have been surprises. Right now, they've won the two I thought they would and won two games I had at 50/50. So they are plus 2 on my ledger. I second torch's question because a lot of ills are covered up when winning.

I'd say Yacoubou has decided to up his play ---- his senior year, he is looking for post-collegiate employment and doing well. Reynolds has shown much more than anyone could have expected but he is still the one-trick pony showing no signs of an exterior shooting ability. But he has time. Agbeko has played maddeningly well at times and equally bad at times, but those having expressed hope for the former can keep those fires burning. He remains the only guy on the front line of traditional bigs with the ilk that can rebound it seems. Crawford has been workmanlike. Gillmann appears the same as last year. Jolly got all the time he deserved last night. Neufeld shows promise but is the proverbial work in progress. Roby and Bartley seemed to regress although Davell did well last night. Bartley too with his threes. Yarbrough is still a man without a position ---- inside presence or point guard? He does see the court almost the best of all so that a positive, however, him bringing the ball up at times is scary especially when he decides to not make foul shots late or get out of control. But that's being picky -- it hasn't hurt us yet.

The biggest thing I see so far is the mental game. Louisville will bring a stern test but based on so far,it should be a decent game and a win is indeed possible. Let's see how they react to the big lights on a big city stage come Saturday. There is no substitute for momentum --- and that goes both ways with torch's comment. Too soon to tell but trending positive right now. Who knows, maybe UNF is the ISU of last year; maybe UNF solidifies the psyche going forward.

As for UNF, they fell apart down the stretch as they did at Louisville. They ran out of gas especially when they lost the one kid to the inadvertent Roby elbow. They only go 7 deep and when they tired, they lost their legs and that is what you shoot with. Beech really did not look good --- yet last year a guy like Beech would have played memorably like some of those Vermont and South Dakota kids did. So kudos to the adjustments. Are the adjustments Crews? Not sure but still don't believe Crews is the man going forward.

All in all, an extremely positive start but a lot of "show me" still to go.

No posts from the couch in MD? Or will those begin if/when your dire predictions come true?

[kshoe]

In the keeping it objective camp...Pomeroy's computer projects our record as 16-14. He also expects us to lose to Louisville by 10 points and gives us only a 13% chance of beating them. Seems about right to me and I'm not sure how anybody could be realistically predicting single digit wins at this point. Hopefully the majority of the board keeps its new-found optimism even if Louisville doesn't end in a win.

The fragile comment is a bit odd given that we've had 4 games that were very much in doubt with 6-10 minutes to go. We've finished very strong in all 4 which suggests the opposite of fragility to me.

[slufan13]

Serious question as I've tried to forget last season...How many games were we in it with under 8 minutes left that we just finished terribly and fragile-looking? For some reason I feel like we did fine down the stretch in games last year, but most of the time we just got blown the ###### out.

I don't think anyone will be upset with a loss to Louisville and even Wichita St and Kansas St. I think the best test for this team will be how they respond if they lose a game they shouldn't or if they hit a skid with a couple of straight losses. @K-State, @URI, GW, VCU, @Duquesne could be a tough 5 game stretch where I think we'll see what this team is made of. Even a 0-5 stretch (which Pomeroy projects) wouldn't be terrible if we respond nicely and don't lose sight of what we're trying to do.

[brianstl]

I think the fragile comment comes from the fact the team responded terribly to adversity last season.

After last night I think it safe to say we won't have a train wreck season. I would up my win total from 13-14 to 15.

I don't expect to beat Louisville. I really don't think how close we keep it matters. The key will be how we bounce back from that game.

[cheeseman]

The first three games were expected and there have been surprises. Right now, they've won the two I thought they would and won two games I had at 50/50. So they are plus 2 on my ledger. I second torch's question because a lot of ills are covered up when winning.

I'd say Yacoubou has decided to up his play ---- his senior year, he is looking for post-collegiate employment and doing well. Reynolds has shown much more than anyone could have expected but he is still the one-trick pony showing no signs of an exterior shooting ability. But he has time. Agbeko has played maddeningly well at times and equally bad at times, but those having expressed hope for the former can keep those fires burning. He remains the only guy on the front line of traditional bigs with the ilk that can rebound it seems. Crawford has been workmanlike. Gillmann appears the same as last year. Jolly got all the time he deserved last night. Neufeld shows promise but is the proverbial work in progress. Roby and Bartley seemed to regress although Davell did well last night. Bartley too with his threes. Yarbrough is still a man without a position ---- inside presence or point guard? He does see the court almost the best of all so that a positive, however, him bringing the ball up at times is scary especially when he decides to not make foul shots late or get out of control. But that's being picky -- it hasn't hurt us yet.

The biggest thing I see so far is the mental game. Louisville will bring a stern test but based on so far,it should be a decent game and a win is indeed possible. Let's see how they react to the big lights on a big city stage come Saturday. There is no substitute for momentum --- and that goes both ways with torch's comment. Too soon to tell but trending positive right now. Who knows, maybe UNF is the ISU of last year; maybe UNF solidifies the psyche going forward.

As for UNF, they fell apart down the stretch as they did at Louisville. They ran out of gas especially when they lost the one kid to the inadvertent Roby elbow. They only go 7 deep and when they tired, they lost their legs and that is what you shoot with. Beech really did not look good --- yet last year a guy like Beech would have played memorably like some of those Vermont and South Dakota kids did. So kudos to the adjustments. Are the adjustments Crews? Not sure but still don't believe Crews is the man going forward.

All in all, an extremely positive start but a lot of "show me" still to go.

I don' think that most are saying all is perfect. Every team has holes and areas that will jump up and bite them at some point in a specific game. I would say Gilmann is playing a lot more comfortably on the court this year - he is not and never will be a banger so don't expect him to be that kind of a player - I do agree he has to improve his perimeter shooting consistency given the type of game he plays. Roby's problem - if he has one is caused by Reynolds becoming the point guard. Last year we did not have one and so all the guards tried and that gave Roby more opportunities. Bartley is doing better - he is generally protecting the ball better lately and he is choosing his shots. Milik had trouble last night protecting the ball - too many turn overs and too many missed close in shots. He did not perform well last night and so he sat more - for the season going into the game he was averaging 12.5 pts per game - not sure how that makes for a lost year for him. We wore NFU down and took advantage of that when it counted - the last 8-10 minutes of the game which is how that plays out. Look at what Louisville did with them - they wore them down and in the second half put NFU away - just like we did.

People on the board have been wanting to see a shortened bench and now that it looks like Crews is doing this people are saying those who are not playing are no better than last year - a shortened bench looks this way - some will sit who did not last year. So far Crews is showing a better game adjustment coaching so we have to give him credit if we also blame him when things do not go well. I am not saying he is out of the woods yet - being a head coach is more than just coaching players you have to recruit the players and that is the big question with him - can he recruit? Not sure yet but he still has a short leash with me.

[brianstl]

Morehead St. is shaping up as an interesting game. They improved to 4-1 last night. They lost by 1 at IL. St.

SIU improved to 5-0 last night.

[Pistol]

I had us at 13 wins on the year, 8-4 in non-conference and 5-13 in A10 play. I had us at 3-1 right now, with this being a toss-up game I put in the L column.

I still don't think this is a postseason team or one that will have a winning record in the A10, but if they can play like they did last night against beatable teams (and the A10 has plenty), .500 is a reasonable goal. It's still an "if" and would need to see our players bounce back from losses well, which they didn't do last season, and would need to see our staff put together a gameplan like they did last night on more occasions. We don't have a roster that allows us to coast on talent.

I really wish I'd have seen the game last night because by all indications Crews' staff scouted UNF extremely well, were sensitive to matchups and tightened the rotation, and the players guarded the perimeter and executed the game plan at both ends.

I don't remember feeling this positive about the whole process - scouting-implementation-execution - in a long time. That's really promising, and something I hadn't seen from Crews yet. Maybe he's got a few tricks up his sleeve yet.

[kshoe]

Serious question as I've tried to forget last season...How many games were we in it with under 8 minutes left that we just finished terribly and fragile-looking? For some reason I feel like we did fine down the stretch in games last year, but most of the time we just got blown the ###### out.

I don't think anyone will be upset with a loss to Louisville and even Wichita St and Kansas St. I think the best test for this team will be how they respond if they lose a game they shouldn't or if they hit a skid with a couple of straight losses. @K-State, @URI, GW, VCU, @Duquesne could be a tough 5 game stretch where I think we'll see what this team is made of. Even a 0-5 stretch (which Pomeroy projects) wouldn't be terrible if we respond nicely and don't lose sight of what we're trying to do.

We did get blown out a bunch last year but we looked pretty "fragile" against teams like Texas A&M Corpus Christi and South Dakota St. down the stretch. Other close losses included Dayton, GW and VCU but its hard to say whether it was them being good teams or us crapping the bed that caused those losses.

Either way, I've seen enough to say that while this team isn't perfect its definitely better than last year (players growing older do actually improve) and any predictions/projections of single digit wins are going to end up way off base.

[slufan13]

I think our biggest difference from last year is strength. Ash and Crawford looked to have really improved. Reggie is up and down. But everybody looks stronger. Last night we fought hard through screens, bumped cutters, and made things hard when they drove to the paint. North Florida wasn't ready for that kind of physicality. You can't get away with just 7 guys and being a jump shooting team when your opponent can wear you down like that. I agree Crews had a really good game plan, but I think our overall strength is one of the biggest differences from last season.

[MB73]

Big win last night.

A long way to go but we have hope that several players have improved to a major extent and others to a significant extent, as we positive posters suggested would happen. All those freshmen and lightly seasoned sophomores + Ash learned the hard way last year.

Louisville is an unfortunate challenge for us, with their relentless style, but now I am back to 18 wins. A-10 isn't that tough, we'll get some wins.

Things are looking better.

(those of you taking personal, hurtful attacks on Jolly on the other thread make me sick, I guess it makes you feel like a big man)

[Pistol]

(those of you taking personal, hurtful attacks on Jolly on the other thread make me sick, I guess it makes you feel like a big man)

You'd never attack anyone on a personal level, right? Ha.

We won last night and Jolly played no minutes. It was a horrible matchup for him and the staff knew it. Granted, it's also been demonstrated that there's a negative correlation between wins and Jolly's minutes, so it seems like a pretty obvious coaching decision to never bring him in for the rest of the season.

If he stays on the bench, there will be no need to criticize him, so the sensitive foo-foo PC bunch saying to leave him alone will be happy, his critics (basically everyone who sees him play) will be happy, and the team will be better. Everyone wins!

[MB73]

Nice try.

I'll attack dweeb posters on a personal level who are out of line but never, ever, one of our players.

Do you understand the difference?

[Billfan78]

Pistol. The difference is the posters here are, for the most part, grown men who post here knowing they could be subject to debate and personal attack. The players are literally kids. I think it is fine to point out deficiencies in a player's game but to outright say they suck or worse in a mean-spririted manner seems to be going too far.

[Pistol]

Jolly is a bad basketball player, objectively. It's not a personal attack to state something that can be proven statistically or by any rational observer of the sport of basketball. His deficiencies can be listed as: All. I'm not the first person to point this out.

If he's a great guy, I don't care. It doesn't matter. I know lots of great guys who would be objectively terrible D-I basketball players.

It's convenient for us to say "They're just kids!" when we don't like the criticism, but treat them like grown men when we're in the mood to criticize.

(Also, what's the line between 'kids' and 'not kids'? We have players ranging from 18 to 23 in age. The legal drinking age is in the middle. They're all old enough to serve in the military. What's the line, seriously?)