The Wiz Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 And now for the real season. Last night's game had no effect on the Bills numbers ...they did what they they were supposed to do and remain at B-.. From this point on we will have to step it up a notch.. UNF is also a B- team....the Bills are equal UNF. This will be a hard concept for some to swallow but that is what the numbers show. This game will be about the Bills defense against one of the best shooting teams in the nation. UNF slashline is a staggering 49/48/79.. They are 2nd in the nation in 3pt shooting. They can flat out shoot. But they can be shut down. At halftime yesterday Lville made some defensive adjustments and held a team averaging nearly 45 pts/ half to 20. Yes, I know we are not Lville but we also don't have to win by 28 points. Here is what we need to do to win...... Play D....If we leave them open for 3s the game will be a blow out... for UNF. Defend the 3 ...no open shots. Their gunners are Moore and Beech...hold them to under 20 and 15 respectively. This won't be easy. Beech hit a half court shot against Lville yesterday. Again, do not leave them open. Also if you bother them on defense they turn the ball over. Make the short stuff. Layups and 1 footers...the Bills have to sink those....FTs will also be important....Here is the slashline we need to win 50/ 30/ 70. On D we need to hold them to under 40% in FG and 3pt...it won't be easy Bottomline ,,We should win this game. If we do win, I would not consider this an upset. If we leave them open or they get hot, the game will be a runaway for the Ospreys. Did I mention we need to play D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheChosenOne Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 I think the hard thing for many fans is that in each game we have had significant portions of bad play as well as some relatively encouraging play. While we have pulled away late and gotten wins that look "good" on paper, the games were much closer than those final scores and similar weaknesses to last season have been seen. Throw in the fact that those were all against weak opponents and it leaves us not having any idea what kind of team we are. Hopefully Louisville gave us the game plan in the 2nd half of their game with North Florida, makes the scout easy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3star_recruit Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 North Florida's greatest strength is three point shooting. They are very good at going through the progressions in their offense. They have trouble rebounding against tall, athletic frontlines. We have a weak frontline and struggle defending strong 3 point shooting teams. Games are about matchups. Anything can happen on any given day but so far, we've shown nothing that makes me think we can stop North Florida. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigMouthBilliken Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Couldn't guard the 3 balls last night, not confident we can do it Tuesday. Too many open looks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheeseman Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Couldn't guard the 3 balls last night, not confident we can do it Tuesday. Too many open looks I know it seemed as if we could not guard the 3 last night but the box score says SF shot under 30% from the arc. I would say if we defend the 3 consistently at that rate this year we should be fine in that area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moytoy12 Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 If our 1st 3 games gives us any indication of how Tuesday will go, then I see a double digit win for UNF. We've left 3 point shooters open all 3 games. Not sure how this will change against UNF. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigMouthBilliken Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 I know it seemed as if we could not guard the 3 last night but the box score says SF shot under 30% from the arc. I would say if we defend the 3 consistently at that rate this year we should be fine in that area.Perhaps, but better teams will not miss wide open looks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3star_recruit Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 And now for the real season. Last night's game had no effect on the Bills numbers ...they did what they they were supposed to do and remain at B-.. From this point on we will have to step it up a notch.. UNF is also a B- team....the Bills are equal UNF. This will be a hard concept for some to swallow but that is what the numbers show. This game will be about the Bills defense against one of the best shooting teams in the nation. UNF slashline is a staggering 49/48/79.. They are 2nd in the nation in 3pt shooting. They can flat out shoot. But they can be shut down. At halftime yesterday Lville made some defensive adjustments and held a team averaging nearly 45 pts/ half to 20. Yes, I know we are not Lville but we also don't have to win by 28 points. Here is what we need to do to win...... Play D....If we leave them open for 3s the game will be a blow out... for UNF. Defend the 3 ...no open shots. Their gunners are Moore and Beech...hold them to under 20 and 15 respectively. This won't be easy. Beech hit a half court shot against Lville yesterday. Again, do not leave them open. Also if you bother them on defense they turn the ball over. Make the short stuff. Layups and 1 footers...the Bills have to sink those....FTs will also be important....Here is the slashline we need to win 50/ 30/ 70. On D we need to hold them to under 40% in FG and 3pt...it won't be easy Bottomline ,,We should win this game. If we do win, I would not consider this an upset. If we leave them open or they get hot, the game will be a runaway for the Ospreys. Did I mention we need to play D If your two most likely scenarios are us eeking out a victory at home or us getting blown out at home, why are you rating both teams as a B-? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted November 22, 2015 Author Share Posted November 22, 2015 If your two most likely scenarios are us eeking out a victory at home or us getting blown out at home, why are you rating both teams as a B-? Good question I think the most likely scenario is we win. The 2 teams are equal but their is a lot of variability at this point in that I only have about 1/2 the data I need ...so more can go wrong with the forecast. There is also greater variability because of the nature of NFU's game. Even good shooting teams go cold. Right now they are going at record rate for 3s probably unsustainable over a season. The best teams in the nation over a season usually come in at low to mid 40s. It is still a small sample size and yesterday they showed they were human when Lville held them to 25% from the arc in the 2nd half. So even with greater variability, and limited data the most likely scenario is we win in a close game. The matchup shows we are even and then add on the the homefield advantage ... and we win by 3. Probably a good time to check my Descartes quote at the bottom of this post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenbill Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 I'm not putting much stock into L'ville's 28 pt. win over N. Fla. The 'ville was only up two at the half and then played what Pitino called "as good a half of basketball as we've played since I've been here." N. Fla was outrebounded 53-22. We're going to have to defend past the three point line while controlling the paint. I expect it to be tight and high scoring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 All we have to do is to wait until Tuesday night and we will see what actually happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheeseman Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Perhaps, but better teams will not miss wide open looks. True but SF had some drop that should not have. All I am saying is the net result last night was not that bad. I agree you have to defend the 3 well against NF Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zink Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Overall, we have had defended the three pretty well this year, and historically. I feel like with this group, we can go small and do a lot of switching to prevent the three on ballscreens, in addition to our normal tactics. We have a lot of long wings who should give outside shooting teams trouble with their closeouts and ability to switch. Just a matter of executing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Couldn't guard the 3 balls last night, not confident we can do it Tuesday. Too many open looks Actually, after Crews made his half time adjustment, we guarded the 3 quite well. He went small in the second half, and St. Frank went 3 of 13. I'll take that 23% 3 FG Defense % any game. First half, the Puppy Dogs were 5 of 14 for 35%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 St. Francis hung in there with their 3 pt shooting, especially in the first half, now we face the 2nd best 3 pt team in the nation. As someone said, we ain't L'ville. And I can't see us outrebounding the little sisters of the poor by almost 30 boards. All that said, if we can find a way to beat UNF, my thinking about this team would swing to the positive pole. Yes, we're 3-0 and there are some positives, but in the critical areas of rebounds and defense still think we've got a long ways to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 St Francis is a bad team and a bad shooting team. No "adjustment" saved us. They just aren't good. We give up wayyyy too many attempts and most are open looks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Especially against a team like North Florida we need to go small from the start. This has been obvious since last year but our staff can only figure that out midway through a game. If we want to "adjust" it should be adjusting to go big. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheA_Bomb Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 So we start out small so that many posters can complain that we aren't using our height advantage and/or developing our young big men. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Sulfan 13 why do you think N Florida is so superior to SLU? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kmbilliken Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 We always sag off the three point shooters on the weak side to provide help in the middle. When our opponents rotate the ball cross court to the open man they often have an open 3. I wonder if the staff is willing to adjust that approach to better to defend against the open 3? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clock_Tower Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 The purpose of having and playing bigs is to score from close range, rebound and defend the interior. When I see bigs who are soft, slow, weak, not good at rebounding, not good at playing interior defense and/or averse to playing a physical interior game preferring to shoot 3's from the perimeter, I again ask: why are we playing them? and can we not find a another player (possibly a guard with size/length) who can shoot better? There is no rule that a team must have a tall guy playing the 5 and/or on the court at all times. Spoon won many games with his 5 being 6'6" or less. And who cares if our tall 5 can shoot well from the 3 point comparatively to other team's 5's but not score in or defend the post. If he can do both, then now we have something special. If he cannot score in or defend the post, then play 5 guards for all I care. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JettFlight5 Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 We do have some pretty good perimeter athletes. This is a game when that should be the defensive focus. Roby's length on guards I think will be important. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3star_recruit Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Depends on what your long term aspirations are. If your long term goal is to make the NCAA tournament and possibly win a game, then a team of mighty mites is fine. If you hope to win regular season titles and make deep runs in the tournament in a couple of years, you need a big to take the heat off your perimeter players. And you can't develop a big if you don't play them. If you don't play your bigs against cupcakes and teams with average frontlines, you're missing golden opportunities to develop them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clock_Tower Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Depends on what your long term aspirations are. If your long term goal is to make the NCAA tournament and possibly win a game, then a team of mighty mites is fine. If you hope to win regular season titles and make deeAp runs in the tournament in a couple of years, you need a big to take the heat off your perimeter players. And you can't develop a big if you don't play them. If you don't play your bigs against cupcakes and teams with average frontlines, you're missing golden opportunities to develop them. Agreed. At the same time, there needs to be a balance. Last year, we wasted alot of golden opportunities to develop our PG and our 4 and 5 by playing McBroom - a selfish kid who did not and cannot distribute the ball. Go back and read my posts where I said we need to play MR at PG. As it turns out, MR simply was not ready (defense, dribbling, shooting...) so playing him anyway would have been a mistake and not good for the team as a whole. This year, MR looks like a completely different player: and it is NOT because he was played last year -- because he wasn't. Another example of wasted golden opportunities was to play MC, TL and RA their freshman year. Go back and read my posts that Crews should have played them more. As it turns out, we could have played them alot and it would not have changed things - they were not ready as freshman, they were not fully ready last year as Sophs either... At some point, we need to trust our head coach who knows what he is doing and who sees the kids each day at practice. Similarly, playing bigs simply b/c they are tall and because tall kids are needed to go on deep runs in the Tourney is also not smart if they too are simply not ready. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billfan78 Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Clock. Your post answers itself. "we need to trust our head coach who knows what he is doing and who sees the kids each day at practice." He obviously thinks the bigs need to play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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