Tonka Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 DocB is right that we will finish better than we're predicted to finish this early on. Clock also made some great points. We should finish in 7th place or better putting us in the top half of the league this year. If I am wrong, we won't finish below 8th and I'll tell you why. It will probably take an 8-8 conference schedule as it did last year. Richmond finished 8-8 last year and finished 7th in the league. I will be shocked if we can't win 8 games in the conference even as competitive as it is. We traditionally play well at home. Even if you go by (which you shouldn't) the preseason rankings, we play (5) of the bottom (8) teams at home which should be wins. If we sneak an upset in one of the other (4) home games against the league's top teams, we finish with (6) wins at home and now only need to win (2) on the road to give us an 8-8 record. You can swap it out and win (5) conference games at home and then just need to win (3) conference games on the road. Here's how to have success this year: I am expecting another year of distributed scoring and that will work to our favor. The greatest chance to have good success this year is to have double digit scoring or close to it from a number of players. If you look at the past 14-15 years there are patterns of success when we had this. We won: 28 games in 2012-2013 - on that team we had 5 players with 9 or more points and 3 of those 5 averaging 10 or more points 27 games in 2013-2014 - on that team we had 4 players with 9 or more points and 3 of those averaging 10 or more points 26 games in 2011-2012 - on that team we had 4 players with 8 or more points and 3 of those averaging 10 or more points 23 games in 2009-2010 - on that team we had 3 players averaging 10 or more points 20 games in 2006-2007 - on that team we had 4 players with 9 or more points and 3 of those averaging 10 or more points 19 games in 2003-2004 - on that team we had 3 players averaging 10 or more points (Sloan was 9.7) 18 games in 2008-2009 - on that team we had 3 players averaging 10 or more points In comparison, look at our 9 win season: 9 games in 2004-2005 - on that team we had 2 players average 9 points or more (Ohanon and Bryant) So, it's imperative that we have distributed scoring and here's how we're going to do that: If you look at the above stats from previous teams, we need to find 3 or more 10 point scorers or 4 or 5 players with 9 or more points. Who's going to be those 4-5 players. I think we have numerous options: Ash - I think he can be a 9 point average guy. The last Villanova guard transfer that came over after two years at Villanova was Reggie Bryant in 2001-2002. Reggie averaged 16.4 points in his first year / junior year with the Billikens. I'm not saying Reggie and Ash are the same kind of player. Reggie was more of an offensive threat than and Ash is more of an unselfish player from what we hear. Ash will be better on defense though. Villanova traditionally has good guards and usually plenty of them, so to see time means you can play. Both Ash and Reggie each played in 31 games in their sophomore seasons at Villanova. Ash scored less than Reggie, but Ash also played on a team with 8 guards listed on the roster and a team that won 20 games that year and played the 13th toughest schedule in the country. Also, we don't need Ash to put up 16.4 points, just 9 or so with our other balanced scoring. See the Villanova connection here? Go with it! Crawford - Crawford is a scorer. He has a high basketball IQ and will not just be a sniper as we saw him take it to the basket last year. Crawford played in 24 games last year on a team that won 27 games, the 2nd most in school history. Mike is very capable of putting up 9 a game, especially with a year under his belt. McBroom - Austin is already averaging 9 points a game in his career. He scored 10.9 / game at Central Michigan and 7.3 / game last year with the Billikens. He also played 8 less minutes a game last year than he did the year before. Without Jett and McCall, McBroom will look to score. He doesn't lack the confidence and will look to score and he will keep his 9 points a game average. One of the Freshman - Which freshman? Doesn't matter, pick one OR two! We have (6) freshmen on our roster and in the Billikens program over the past 10-15 years freshman have (and had to) step up. And, one or two of them will again. The level of our recruiting has gone up (even if the recruiting ratings disagree) and given (6) freshmen, one or two will repeat history and step and up and be a 9 point or more scorer. Lisch averaged 11 a game as a freshman and Liddell 10.3 as a freshman. Kwamain was on a team with a roster of 6 freshman and he averaged 11 points a game. McCall and Evans had 5 freshman listed on their roster as freshman and McCall scored 10.4 and Evans scored 8.5 a game. Cody Ellis had 8 freshman listed on the roster his freshman year and he averaged 10.5 points a game. With 6 freshman on this team, somebody will step up and grab 9 points a game and I wouldn't be shocked if a second freshman was close (7-8 game). Reggie Agbeko - would anybody be shocked if Reggie put up 9 a game? I wouldn't be. Lancona - A 6'8" player who can also score on the outside can easily put up 9 a game. Manning and Glaze - Manning has only scored at least 9 points in one game last year, but he did only average 12 minutes a game. I still don't see him being more than 6 or 7 points a game guy. Glaze did score 9 points or more in 5 games last year and one game put up 16 points. He too had reduced minutes though. In summary, I am not claiming we will have an awesome year, but we will be better than the preseason rankings so far and it will be fun to watch the youth develop. As you can see, we are very capable of having three 10 point scorers or more or (4) 9 point scorers or more. And, if that happens history says we will be better than just okay. We also have a program that is now used to winning and playing on the big stage. Lastly, we will be playing for Father Grollmes this year, so we'll have heavenly support. Go Billikens! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Not to refute your point, but the A-10's conference schedule features 18 games this year. A .500 record would be 9-9. And I don't think there were 8 freshmen on the roster in Cody Ellis's freshman year (2009-10). I believe the frosh were Reid, Salecich, Smith, Jordan, Ellis, and Remekun, with John as a redshirt. Okay 7, which is almost 8. Correct me if I'm missing someone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duff Man Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Not to refute your point, but the A-10's conference schedule features 18 games this year. A .500 record would be 9-9. And I don't think there were 8 freshmen on the roster in Cody Ellis's freshman year (2009-10). I believe the frosh were Reid, Salecich, Smith, Jordan, Ellis, and Remekun, with John as a redshirt. Okay 7, which is almost 8. Correct me if I'm missing someone. Darrin Young. and I'm not sure it's fair to compare this 2014-15 team to a team that returned the bad motherfuoker that was Kwamain Mitchell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Darrin Young. and I'm not sure it's fair to compare this 2014-15 team to a team that returned the bad motherfuoker that was Kwamain Mitchell. Darrin Young? What, wasn't he a walk-on? We're not counting walk-ons! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tonka Posted August 23, 2014 Author Share Posted August 23, 2014 Darrin Young? What, wasn't he a walk-on? We're not counting walk-ons! I said roster....if they were listed on the roster, I counted them. Good call on the 9-9, still doable. Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BilliKat Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 I'm with ya, tonka! I'll finally finish up nursing school this December and be able to pay full attention to my billies again I think it's gonna be a helluva year. I think Crawford and Agbeko are gonna be the standouts this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drkelsey55 Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 I'm with ya, tonka! I'll finally finish up nursing school this December and be able to pay full attention to my billies again I think it's gonna be a helluva year. I think Crawford and Agbeko are gonna be the standouts this year. +1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsmith19 Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 It will be interesting to see whether everyone's angst over our three point shooters getting worse as their careers progress is borne out. If McBroom, Crawford, and/or Lancona actually improve their percentages this year, a .500 or better record seems very doable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billikenboy Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 We have very capable shooters who should make the season interesting but I am sure the development of inside post players like Reggie, Grandy, and Manning will ensure we keep all teams honest in how they play us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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