slu72 Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 I'd also add, KShoe, while the non con looks soft you can bet the farm we'll lose a couple to teams we expected to beat easily. Remember teams like Ark Little Rock, a Tennessee something or other back in the day. Supposed to be cake walks, ended up as losses. You can expect that from this type of team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 I'd also add, KShoe, while the non con looks soft you can bet the farm we'll lose a couple to teams we expected to beat easily. Remember teams like Ark Little Rock, a Tennessee something or other back in the day. Supposed to be cake walks, ended up as losses. You can expect that from this type of team. How can you expect that? I thought there were too many unknowns. I know I'm being an , but I just don't understand how there can be so many unknowns yet we know what to expect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dwayne's_World Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 If there are so many "unknowns", then how is making any prediction "very realistic" This. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Maybe, but I went and looked at the W/L projection thread. Only 15 people actually put a record down but the average was 18.3 wins and 11.7 losses (I ignored the 30- prediction as it was obviously a joke). The highs in wins were Bauman and Jimbo with 22 and the low was SLU72 with 14. The Standard deviation was only 2.3, meaning 2/3 of the people think we will win between 16-20 games. I don't think any of that is unreasonable. With this the soft non-con schedule and 17 home games, 18 wins seems about right. I think 18 is possible, but I feel more comfortable at 17. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMM28 Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 I'd be very happy with 20 wins. Comparing TN Martin games from 10 years ago to this team means zero. Also remember the bad year under Majerus, he wasn't taking short cuts, trying to build a winner, etc. He wasn't necessarily playing to win that year. He was playing for the next season. This team has an established winning pattern now which will make this season strategy quite a bit different. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheChosenOne Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 I'd be very happy with 20 wins. Comparing TN Martin games from 10 years ago to this team means zero. Also remember the bad year under Majerus, he wasn't taking short cuts, trying to build a winner, etc. He wasn't necessarily playing to win that year. He was playing for the next season. This team has an established winning pattern now which will make this season strategy quite a bit different. Did Majerus have any choice during that bad year? I think this season shapes up similarly, Crews has no choice but to play the underclassmen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 How can you expect that? I thought there were too many unknowns. I know I'm being an ######, but I just don't understand how there can be so many unknowns yet we know what to expect. I think it's reasonable to expect more lows than highs from an inexperienced team. And that's not to say they couldn't surprise on the upside, but I wouldn't be betting the farm on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bauman Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 I think it's reasonable to expect more lows than highs from an inexperienced team. And that's not to say they couldn't surprise on the upside, but I wouldn't be betting the farm on it. You and Taj need to get off the fence. Just about all your sub-.500 posts carry the "I could be surprised" caveat. Nice-that allows to you a lot of wiggle room when you are wrong. Getting back to the original topic of this thread, I, like many of you, am surprised that we didn't show up in the 80-90 range, given our unknowns. However, for us to not make the list from this point on means that URI and Richmond both DID make the top 67 (or whatever the number is today). Based on our track record the past 3 years, I see the writers including the SLU "program" as opposed to either URI or Richmond. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Did Majerus have any choice during that bad year? I think this season shapes up similarly, Crews has no choice but to play the underclassmen. I don't agree with that at all. The four most experienced players on this team are juniors and seniors and I'd be very surprised if at least 3 of them don't start on day 1. The 2010-11 team had no seniors and the only two juniors were Conklin and Cassity. Yes, he is going to have to play some underclassmen but if Crews chooses to he can have an 9 man rotation that only relies on only 2 freshman for limited minutes. That's pretty different if you ask me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 I don't agree with that at all. The four most experienced players on this team are juniors and seniors and I'd be very surprised if at least 3 of them don't start on day 1. The 2010-11 team had no seniors and the only two juniors were Conklin and Cassity. Yes, he is going to have to play some underclassmen but if Crews chooses to he can have an 9 man rotation that only relies on only 2 freshman for limited minutes. That's pretty different if you ask me. I think there's a very high (>80%) chance that we start no freshmen when the year begins. That season, we started Rob, Mike and Dwayne, if memory serves. That said, we also won 12 games that year so I would certainly hope that the two rosters don't parallel each other that much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheChosenOne Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 I don't agree with that at all. The four most experienced players on this team are juniors and seniors and I'd be very surprised if at least 3 of them don't start on day 1. The 2010-11 team had no seniors and the only two juniors were Conklin and Cassity. Yes, he is going to have to play some underclassmen but if Crews chooses to he can have an 9 man rotation that only relies on only 2 freshman for limited minutes. That's pretty different if you ask me. I said underclassmen, not freshmen. I think we will have to rely fairly heavily on underclassmen and newcomers (agree, not heavily on freshmen like 2010-2011 when that was our only option). Do you anticipate Manning and Glaze playing more minutes than junior year Conklin (21.4 mpg) and Cassity (31.5 mpg)? I would think we will get fairly similar minutes from underclassmen and newcomers this year as that season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted September 3, 2014 Author Share Posted September 3, 2014 This --- by slufan13 ----"how can any prediction be realistic." BINGO! They can't. Whether it's Welser, or me or kshoe, or Gottleib, Rothstein, etc., etc. Nobody knows, so it's all only for discussion. Who was the poster that gave us the Super Bowl lock? Was that Mb or moytoy or who? He was great, until he failed on that NBA prediction. So it goes ----- to quote another dear friend Joey Fluegel. I have long had the discussion with kshoe over the terminology of predictions versus projections. Mainly because things change. And this season very well will too. Too many unknowns. What if they all get answered "poorly?" What if they are answered beyond our wildest dreams? I have a projection but if bauman wants locked in stone, that ain't me. A good sign of understanding is knowing not only the battlefield, but the changes occurring there on. Check fire. Readjust aim. Or keep shooting your wad into the dark of the forward while the target has moved behind you. What I have enjoyed so far is not only the optimism, but the rationale ---or lack there of --- for it. Anybody who says they have a clue is full of shite. Despite that DocB and BillikensWin have given me cues as to what to look for in some of our guys. And did I mention ... JJ still can't shoot the mid-range jumper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 I said underclassmen, not freshmen. I think we will have to rely fairly heavily on underclassmen and newcomers (agree, not heavily on freshmen like 2010-2011 when that was our only option). Do you anticipate Manning and Glaze playing more minutes than junior year Conklin (21.4 mpg) and Cassity (31.5 mpg)? I would think we will get fairly similar minutes from underclassmen and newcomers this year as that season. I think Ash and McBroom are juniors and thus should be considered upperclassmen, especially since both are in their 4th year out of hs and have played in many big games. When coupled with manning and glaze, they effectively double the experience factor as compared to cassity and Conklin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billiken Rich Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 I think Ash and McBroom are juniors and thus should be considered upperclassmen, especially since both are in their 4th year out of hs and have played in many big games. When coupled with manning and glaze, they effectively double the experience factor as compared to cassity and Conklin. ....and despite those wanted him to be more Cassity=Glaze and Manning, Ash, and Austin > Conklin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheChosenOne Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 I think Ash and McBroom are juniors and thus should be considered upperclassmen, especially since both are in their 4th year out of hs and have played in many big games. When coupled with manning and glaze, they effectively double the experience factor as compared to cassity and Conklin. Cassity and Conklin played significant minutes their first two seasons and Salecich and Ellis both played significant minutes as freshmen, so we actually return less experience and production than that team. It wasn't meant to be a passionate take. This year's team is made up primarily of guys who either have not played a game for SLU (6 freshmen and 1 transfer) or have had largely minor roles (Manning and the 3 sophomores) fairly similar to 2010-2011. Thus, this team is largely an unknown heading into the season as was the 2010-2011 team. This year's team returns Austin McBroom (21.5 mpg), Grandy Glaze (12.9 mpg), John Manning (11.9 mpg), Tanner Lancona (8.5 mpg), Mike Crawford (7.5 mpg), and Reggie Agbeko (5.6 mpg) for a total of 67.9 mpg. Those guys also return 19.5 ppg and 11.4 rpg, so there are a lot of minutes and production that needs to be filled and with 7 newcomers and 3 sophomores, those guys will be needed to fill a lot of that. The 2010-2011 team returned four guys who played significant minutes as underclassmen the year before (Cassity, Salecich, Ellis, and Conklin) in addition to Remekun. Those five guys returned 31 ppg and 15.7 rpg, but a lot more minutes (121.5 mpg) due to the youth of the team the prior year, so there were minutes and significant production needed from the newcomers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bauman Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Despite the lack of respect this site gets from many SLU fans on this Board, these rankings seem to have a healthy dose of respect for the A-10. They will list 6 teams in the top 65 from the A-10. Interesting seeing the recent predictions of two schools that left the A-10 for bigger and better conferences (I know football was the driver) Charlotte and Temple are ranked 66 and 72, respectively. I still think we will be one of the remaining top 65, just based on our recent reputation/success. It is hard to see any of the potential 7 A-10 teams hoping to be in the list of 6 remaining league teams, being ranked lower than Fordham (#144). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thetorch Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Our experience factor as measured by ken pomeroy for next season should measure just slight above or below 1. Non BCS teams with numbers that low just don't make the tournament. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUBillsFan Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 I'm not making a prediction, but my scale is pretty much as follows: under .500 = disappointing over .500 = okay over 20 wins = ecstatic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billiken Rich Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 I'm not making a prediction, but my scale is pretty much as follows: under .500 = disappointing over .500 = okay over 20 wins = ecstatic My thinking exactly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clock_Tower Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 My thinking exactly Assuming 30 games and a .500 record, that would 15 and 15. Sorry, but with large number of buy games, anything short of 18 wins will be a disappointment to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billiken Rich Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Assuming 30 games and a .500 record, that would 15 and 15. Sorry, but with large number of buy games, anything short of 18 wins will be a disappointment to me. We're not that far apart. 16 to 18. I Just cant see 1 game over .500 as a disappointment given our losses. All of our seniors had flaws but it's tough to replace that many of them and hard to replace senior guards like Jett and Mccall without a falloff..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clock_Tower Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 We're not that far apart. 16 to 18. I Just cant see 1 game over .500 as a disappointment given our losses. All of our seniors had flaws but it's tough to replace that many of them and hard to replace senior guards like Jett and Mccall without a falloff..... Yes and no. Some of the guys, or should I say some of the things they brought to the table, will be very tough to replace. At the same time, we are not talking about NBA quality players we need to replace. If we are honest, each of the graduating Seniors had parts of their games which were not as good as other parts. Outside shooting, for one, will not need to be replaced b/c we really didn't have it last year. So in some ways, we might actually be better. Dropoff ... yes. The amount of drop... ?? still to be determined. And yes, the upperclassmen and the Frosh will both have to step up for us, but IMO, our Sophs will be the key. I am expecting 20 wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bauman Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 URI just came in at 57. It's looking like Taj and slu72 are going to be right about us not even being listed by this website as one of the top 144. That's hard to believe given who they have already listed e.g. Fordham. While I am surprised, make that shocked at the lack of respect, I am still confident that we will be much better than these guys and many others think we will be. My prediction was 22 wins not counting Rockhurst and I still feel that that is a possibility. My biggest concern is this coaching staff's desire to play upperclassmen over Fr. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billikenboy Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 I suspect Coaching Staff will make a fresh start at all positions since no one player is locked into a starting role due to experience/seniority. Will be a good base to start with and team come together in due time. I just hope they are winning while working out the kinks. No one expect SLU to be any good...that is a good place to be after graduating a successful team like last year's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dwayne's_World Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 Questions. What is this website and why does anyone even care what predictions they have? Does it matter if anyone thinks we deserve to be in the top 144? Everyone on this board knows more about SLU basketball than whatever wacko is writing those predictions. From what I've read on this thread, only about 2-3 posters actually agree with him, everyone else begs to differ. Fordham and Rhode Island getting more pre season respect? A joke. We will see how the season plays out; when all is said and done and the season is over, we will all see who was right. Until then, no one knows how any of these teams are going to do (e.g. Kentucky might clinch a spot in the NIT again, but everyone will have them in the top 5 as usual). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.