The Wiz Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Well, while I am waiting for the Vandy/Penn game, it is time to look at some of the trends. In the early part of the season during some of those gut wrenching losses (and wins) I used words like "coming together, gel, realizing potential....etc Then a few threads ago, I posted the question ....how will we know when we are gelling. The answer for me was when we started to exceed spreads. While the UTPA game was a slight improvement (spread exceeded by 3) the Vt game was the first real break through not just because we exceeded by 8 but because we won a game we weren't supposed to win. The Vermont game was our best win ( C+ ) of the season and by a nice margin. While 1 game doesn't mean we have arrived, we are trending in the right direction. 3 in a row against progressively better teams....SIU (F) , UTPA (D) and Vt ( C+ ). And in a statistical quirk, the Bills have a chance to hit for the cycle ...5 games with 5 progressive letters....Vandy (B+ ) & RI (A)....so it would look like this....F, D, C+ , B+, A....Two big hurdles coming up but if the Bills keep playing at a high level it is possible to hit for "the cycle" But let's not get ahead of ourselves...let's take a look at the Vermont game first. After the UTPA game , I said if we could do that again we would beat Vt....and we pretty much did. UTPA....47...41...77 Vt..........43...44...57 Biggest difference was free throws ...but the difference was only 2 or 3 more FTs...also a couple of more baskets would have been a match...so we probably could have won by 9 instead of 3 (and should have). So let's look at some of the other numbers from the Vermont forecast thread. 12 or less assts by opp.....Vt had 11....we are 8-0 now when that happens 22 or more FGM by Bills....we made 23 Hold Vt to 21 or less FGM...they made 21 McBroom scores 12...he only made 9...but you know he would have had at least 3 more points once the fouling started....not to mention we would have put away the game easily if he hadn't been forced out early. Ash 4 FTM...he only had 2 FTs (made them both)...I will have to save that stat for next game. Defense ,defense , defense....this proved to be the case ...as I mentioned in the earlier thread they have trouble handling the ball when bothered...they had 12 TOs and we had 6 steals ...In addition, we stopped them from the 3 holding them to a Majerus type 21%...great defense....I would have liked to see the Bills stop some of the easy drive baskets ...but hey, we are getting there. So where do we go from here? Well, the Bills still haven't reached that full potential yet. The next 2 games will be great tests. The last 3 games were very nice wins. None could be considered upsets. A win (or wins) in the next 2 games would in fact be upsets. I see no reason if we build on what we have done already why we can't win 1 or both of the upcoming games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JettFlight5 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I really want that Rhode Island game. For all the times they got us when we were the better team, it's payback time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 I really want that Rhode Island game. For all the times they got us when we were the better team, it's payback time. It is payback time. I notice that the ath dept is giving out extra tickets to that game to season ticket holders....so that game will be a sellout. It will be the first conference game and RI will be favored in that game as one of the top teams in the A-10. And if somehow we can beat Vandy in the next game ...we would have big momentum (and a big win) to start conference play. RI is a very good team ( A ) but they are not an elite team....they are not a Wichita St. We can beat them if we play our game. You are correct ...Our roles are reversed now and it is payback time....I will start working on casting a spell on them but I will need yours and everyone else's help.....You will need to Bill-lieve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bonwich Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I really want that Rhode Island game. For all the times they got us when we were the better team, it's payback time. We just got two endzone tickets in the mail to give to friends/family. We have a use for them; make sure you gift yours, too, so we get a good crowd for that game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 -not to be Debbie Downer, but we beat a team from the America East conference missing two of their top three scorers by 3 points -granted there are things about yesterday to take as positives but we have a ways to go......and I hope we get there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 -not to be Debbie Downer, but we beat a team from the America East conference missing two of their top three scorers by 3 points -granted there are things about yesterday to take as positives but we have a ways to go......and I hope we get there We do have a ways to go....which is why I titled the thread "Bills are trending" instead of "Bills have arrived" . I could have also titled it "Bills have bottomed out" or "Bills have turned the corner" . The point is that we are a better team than the start of the season. The worst is over. That doesn't mean we won't have some bad games or lose some we should win. There will still be mistakes...2 steps forward 1 step back. But the arrow is trending up now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Basketbill Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 The nice thing about the bills this year, is that our youth and inexperience is what is holding us back, not talent. We have a talented and deep team that needs to get bigger stronger etc.. but I see players developing and with some the sky is the limit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Agree w/ Cowboy that we got a Vermont team that had some missing links. Still, there are signs we're progressing. Hopefully MY's right about his being a good finisher and just had a bad night, because had he made some of those bunnies it would have been more like a 10-12 point win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLU_Nick Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 And if we didn't stop playing with 30 seconds left it would have been a 10 point victory. This game felt like we had it in the bag the whole time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GOSLU68 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Crews had his head in the air looking up in the stands-aloof the last 30 seconds. It is no wonder the team to that queue. This game was first of the season that was a pleasure to watch sans last 30. We stole the ball, we rebounded. Some of the players actually played together. We had lots of mistakes as a young team will. However, we got in the flow before Crews could make the predictable personnel changes that either come every 4 or 5 minutes. Too bad when we went up by 12 near the end of the game those guys couldn't have stayed in the game. It could be as MY stated some of them are starting to trust the other players. There were some good passes by Malik and Gilman. A couple of times people passed to Gilman moving toward the basket. I thought by now RA would have been getting regular Alley Oop passes but his hands are not as good as last year. Manning is doing a reasonable job on defense. Manning looks a little more relaxed on offense as well. I am not sure why our players don't look determined to score when they get the ball. They seem to wait for lots of space thinking they will get stuffed? At the end of last year I would have bet Manning would foul out most games. The new Crews system keeps every one in the game except MB who still having trouble making his feet move on defense. Agbeko forgot and was guarding his man on offense a couple of times but all in all an improved performances. I will give a pass to ML and AY on their poor shooting percentages because they did actually get some offensive rebounds for some of those missed shots. My biggest hope for next year Gilman and Davel Roby put on 20 pounds of muscle-each. DR has real potential to be an all around good player. We have several players besides Gilman who are aware of where the ball is and where the other players are but he is the nicest surprise so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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