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The Wiz report card


The Wiz

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So at the game last night, I had a couple of Board followers ask me how this year compares with other years from a forecasting standpoint. I answered that at the beginning of this year I thought it would be a nightmare with 6 freshman and a team that has really never played together as a unit. But now that we are about a third into the season the numbers are coming in about the same.

Let me share the criteria I use to measure successful prognostication. First and most important is get the game right...pick the correct winner. After that get as close to the correct spread as possible. This is different than what a bettor would do. If I have the Bills by 3 and they only win by 2 the gambler fails to cover and it would be a miss. But for me it would be a hit....correct winner and only 1 pt off.. A close basketball game is considered 5 pts. So anytime I can come within 5 with the right winner it is a hit. In past years, I generally hit the winner in qall college basketball games in about the 80-83% area. And then of the winners about half within 5 pts (particularly after the first 6 games)

So here is the report card so far in what I figured would be a tough forecasting year.

Overall record.....9-2

8 winning game spreads (no Rockhurst) ......4 winning games within 3 pts....including 3 of the last 4 winners (the 4th was 6 off) ...the last 4 winning game average spread therefore comes to 4.33 off.

Of the winners there were 2 that were way off NCAT...22 & Miss St ...24

So overall the numbers are about on track ...81% with 1/2 the close spreads within 5 or less (so far the close spreads are only 3 off or less)

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i thought we could win 18 games based on the Majerus defence system and new coaching assistants and taller more athletic recruits. I doubt that now but I am not disappointed in the players other than the defence and steals-we knew we were a bad rebounding team in the past and this not putting any players on the line for free throws is not necessarily progressive.

Crew's doesn't seem to have a sense of flow for the game with his substitutions coming at 4 or five minute intervals no matter whether the guys coming out were hot or cold.

Frankly, I am from the camp that says let's blow out some of our opponents rather than bring in a fresh five because you are up in the game and JC takes it further the fresh players come in sometimes when have just started to get someplace and need to keep it going for another two minutes. I do like rotating Bigs to the point that they do not foul out. On that end maybe Bartley needs shorter appearances-he may not have the stamina to keep up on defence and thus all the fouls.

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i thought we could win 18 games based on the Majerus defence system and new coaching assistants and taller more athletic recruits. I doubt that now but I am not disappointed in the players other than the defence and steals-we knew we were a bad rebounding team in the past and this not putting any players on the line for free throws is not necessarily progressive.

Crew's doesn't seem to have a sense of flow for the game with his substitutions coming at 4 or five minute intervals no matter whether the guys coming out were hot or cold.

Frankly, I am from the camp that says let's blow out some of our opponents rather than bring in a fresh five because you are up in the game and JC takes it further the fresh players come in sometimes when have just started to get someplace and need to keep it going for another two minutes. I do like rotating Bigs to the point that they do not foul out. On that end maybe Bartley needs shorter appearances-he may not have the stamina to keep up on defence and thus all the fouls.

One of the big difference this year vs last was the 3pt % D. Last year it was a great 28. 9% . This year so far , we have ballooned to 38.8% For those that have read my posts over the Majerus years know that this was a stat I was focused on. Why? Because that was a stat that Majerus was focused on . He wanted big D on 3's. He said he much preferred an opponent to take a step up and shoot a low percentage long 2 rather than shoot the 3. The weak showing so far may just be a part of the defensive learning curve or it may be a change in the philosophy of the team with a de-emphasis on 3pt D. Either way, this is one of the big differences in game stats vs last year. Also, the 3 games prior to the UTPA game, we gave up nearly 16 TO's/gm ...a disturbing trend. It was , in the UTPA game , we cut that nearly in half with an impressive. 8 TO's. We need to keep that going ....definitely no more than 12/ gm in the future.

I think we are improving. We look better against UTPA than we did in the SIU-C game. If we continue to play like we did in UTPA game, we will trend up. If we play like we did against TAMCC it could be a long season.

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One of the big difference this year vs last was the 3pt % D. Last year it was a great 28. 9% . This year so far , we have ballooned to 38.8% For those that have read my posts over the Majerus years know that this was a stat I was focused on. Why? Because that was a stat that Majerus was focused on . He wanted big D on 3's. He said he much preferred an opponent to take a step up and shoot a low percentage long 2 rather than shoot the 3. The weak showing so far may just be a part of the defensive learning curve or it may be a change in the philosophy of the team with a de-emphasis on 3pt D. Either way, this is one of the big differences in game stats vs last year. Also, the 3 games prior to the UTPA game, we gave up nearly 16 TO's/gm ...a disturbing trend. It was , in the UTPA game , we cut that nearly in half with an impressive. 8 TO's. We need to keep that going ....definitely no more than 12/ gm in the future.

I think we are improving. We look better against UTPA than we did in the SIU-C game. If we continue to play like we did in UTPA game, we will trend up. If we play like we did against TAMCC it could be a long season.

There's just tons of open 3's. It looks to me like too many defenders are crashing down on drives and leaving people open along the arc, either for a quick shot or to swing it until we're completely out of position.

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There's just tons of open 3's. It looks to me like too many defenders are crashing down on drives and leaving people open along the arc, either for a quick shot or to swing it until we're completely out of position.

Wiz, by my ranking system I've got Vermont by 3. What say you?

Will post shortly

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There's just tons of open 3's. It looks to me like too many defenders are crashing down on drives and leaving people open along the arc, either for a quick shot or to swing it until we're completely out of position.

+1

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One of the big difference this year vs last was the 3pt % D. Last year it was a great 28. 9% . This year so far , we have ballooned to 38.8% For those that have read my posts over the Majerus years know that this was a stat I was focused on. Why? Because that was a stat that Majerus was focused on . He wanted big D on 3's. He said he much preferred an opponent to take a step up and shoot a low percentage long 2 rather than shoot the 3. The weak showing so far may just be a part of the defensive learning curve or it may be a change in the philosophy of the team with a de-emphasis on 3pt D. Either way, this is one of the big differences in game stats vs last year. Also, the 3 games prior to the UTPA game, we gave up nearly 16 TO's/gm ...a disturbing trend. It was , in the UTPA game , we cut that nearly in half with an impressive. 8 TO's. We need to keep that going ....definitely no more than 12/ gm in the future.

I think we are improving. We look better against UTPA than we did in the SIU-C game. If we continue to play like we did in UTPA game, we will trend up. If we play like we did against TAMCC it could be a long season.

I completely agree with this. The 3 D has been painful. TO's as well but expected from a young team so I'm not too surprised. This should be the first to trend up. I wonder if the speed of the game makes the D sag because they aren't quick enough to react on help D and some man-to-man guard D. Hopefully this corrects itself more during conference play when the teams will be playing with greater intensity and purpose.

My other concerns are our inability to get to the basket. The slashing is at a minimal level. I think it makes guarding us so much easier and kills our options to open up the 3 ball this is resorting to passing the ball around the perimeter excessively. Also the ball screens are weak.

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There's just tons of open 3's. It looks to me like too many defenders are crashing down on drives and leaving people open along the arc, either for a quick shot or to swing it until we're completely out of position.

Even when we do contest the threes, it's as if we don't contest them enough. We should be causing higher arcs on some of those shots, or even tipping a few of them.

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