Michigan State grad here.
I agree that your best chance is to slow down the game; fewer than 60 possessions and you'll have a shot. If you try to push the tempo we win by double digits.
Disagree that MSU half court sets are mediocre. This is actually one of Tom Izzo's more efficient teams. An ironic benefit of Dawson's ACL injury is that we've been forced to start an extra shooter. We have four or five guys on this team that can legitimately stroke it. Our 3 pt field goal percentage (69th nationally) is misleading; we started the season horribly and have been on the rise since.
Our shooters are made more dangerous by our post presence. Before Dawson went down, our bigs would be looking to score or waiting for Dawson to flash into the lane. Now we are playing inside-out ball between the post and wing. It's been pretty effective. (The loss of Dawson will hurt us in matchups against teams with big, quick, and athletic wings, which doesn't describe you guys, I believe).
Our centers are a handful. Payne can jump out the gym, block shots, and his confidence in his j has been growing. Nix is a bruiser, passes extremely well (perhaps overpassing at times), and his footwork in the post is surprisingly refined. With Henson hurt, I'm not sure there are bigs left in the tournament who are any better. Kansas and Kentucky... maybe.
Appling at the point is a converted shooting guard. He's a slasher and a strong on-the-ball defender. He's quick as anybody playing at any level off the break. He shot pretty well last year - his freshman season - at the two. But his shot has been a bit broken this year. Some Big 10 teams started to sag when defending him later in the season; it's an issue for us. Trice, his backup, is a pass-first guy and is deadly from three.
Brandon Wood starts at the two and has scored less but defended better than expected. He makes solid decisions, and once every third or fourth game he'll explode offensively.
Austin Thornton starts at the three since Dawson went down. He's a glue guy. He's been in the program 5 years, is our best FT shooter, and has been lights-out from the field over the second half of the season. Michigan State fans used to groan every time he touched the ball. Now we expect him to sink a three or come off a curl for a midrange catch-and-shoot.
Draymond Green starts at the four. If you don't know about Draymond already, shame on you.
I'm looking forward to this game. Most of us think this will be a B1G style grinder. We like our chances on the grind AND at the break. I'd personally take MSU at -6 (latest line I've seen).
Good luck.