Quality Is Job 1 Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 Horrible thread. Mods, please shut it down. Moytoy, I suspect you post that with your tongue in your cheek, but let me respond as though you're serious. Why would I shut it down when I started it? All of the first 24 posts except for mine (#23) were posted in the Tatum Rally thread and I extracted them here. AlumniFan didn't start this thread, but his is the earliest post. It says, "off topic," so feel free to stay away. But I don't think it would be appropriate to delete these posts or lock the Tatum rally thread, so this is a better option. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moytoy12 Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 Moytoy, I suspect you post that with your tongue in your cheek, but let me respond as though you're serious. Why would I shut it down when I started it? All of the first 24 posts except for mine (#23) were posted in the Tatum Rally thread and I extracted them here. AlumniFan didn't start this thread, but his is the earliest post. It says, "off topic," so feel free to stay away. But I don't think it would be appropriate to delete these posts or lock the Tatum rally thread, so this is a better option. Mods, please ban thicks. Totally tongue in cheek. Just giving St. Louis pro sports fans a hard time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 Mods, please ban thicks. Totally tongue in cheek. Just giving St. Louis pro sports fans a hard time. It appears St. Louis sports fans — at every level — have been having a hard time since October, with the exception of Mizzou football (on the field). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigMouthBilliken Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 It appears St. Louis sports fans — at every level — have been having a hard time since October, with the exception of Mizzou football (on the field). Michael Sam also was eliminated from Dancing with the Stars in an early round. A crippling blow if you ask me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenfan05 Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 Michael Sam also was eliminated from Dancing with the Stars in an early round. A crippling blow if you ask me. Sources say his homosexuality was a distraction in the DWTS lockerroom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pistol Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 Sources say his homosexuality was a distraction in the DWTS lockerroom This made me LOL. Which helps, because the state of pro sports in STL right now makes me sad. Have the moving trucks showed up at Rams Park yet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MB73 Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Grichuk just made yet another spectacular play, a rare double play; with Jon (nice guy) Jay it's a double and a run scored and no one out. Does this show up on "WAR"? Outfield defense matters. A lot. Especially in CF. You cannot go far with the worst CF arm in MLB. Grichuk is a 23 year old potential 5 tool player with All Star abilities whereas Jay is a one tool 30 year old player with no upside: F arm, C- range & glove, D speed, D- power, B batting average. (the play will be on ESPN all day and night, McCarver called it one of the greatest plays he's ever seen) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMM28 Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Grichuk just made yet another spectacular play, a rare double play; with Jon (nice guy) Jay it's a double and a run scored and no one out. Does this show up on "WAR"? Yes. It does. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MB73 Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Yes. It does. But some of us know that 1) Jay would not get to that ball and 2) if he did, he wouldn't even bother to throw. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dwayne's_World Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 Grichuk just made yet another spectacular play, a rare double play; with Jon (nice guy) Jay it's a double and a run scored and no one out. Does this show up on "WAR"? Outfield defense matters. A lot. Especially in CF. You cannot go far with the worst CF arm in MLB. Grichuk is a 23 year old potential 5 tool player with All Star abilities whereas Jay is a one tool 30 year old player with no upside: F arm, C- range & glove, D speed, D- power, B batting average. (the play will be on ESPN all day and night, McCarver called it one of the greatest plays he's ever seen) +1 completely agree, it's past time to cut ties with Jay. Maybe Mo could package him for a solid pitcher or power hitter? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbizzle09 Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 But some of us know that 1) Jay would not get to that ball and 2) if he did, he wouldn't even bother to throw. Already this year, Jay has turned two double plays from CF. For his career, he has turned 10 double plays. So far this season, Jay is leading the league in range factor for centerfielders. For the most part, I feel like you do. The 'eye test' tells me that Grichuk is the future and he should supplant Jay in center and maybe that should happen now. At the same time, we've only seen a small sample size from Grichuk and Jay has actually played a pretty darn good CF so far this year. In fact, he made quite a few web gems before hitting the DL. Is his arm subpar? It sure seems like it to me. Yet, he's been able to double-up guys somehow in his time in the OF. I'd like to see more from Grichuk before anointing him. His minor-league numbers are decent but nothing to go crazy for. He's shown pop, but he also doesn't walk much and hasn't hit for an especially high average in AA or above. He strikes out four times more than he walks and roughly once every 4-5 plate appearances. Still, Grichuk has an upside that Jay doesn't. At the same time, you know you'll get a .290-.300 average and mostly error-free outfield play from Jay. His OPS+ has been 100 or above every season he's played. Jay isn't a player that will take you over the hump, but he is one that won't hurt you if he's in there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 I like Grichuk a lot but I'm not sure why liking him has to lead to Jon Jay bashing (MB73) or saying he should be traded (Dwayne's World). Fact is, it's nice having 4 competent outfielders as there are always times when one of the 4 is injured or someone could use a day off. Plus, with Heyward being a FA at the end of this year and Jay at the end of 2016 we need to keep our options open going forward. I suspect what will happen is Heyward will get a 1 yr qualifying offer and a "reasonable" long term offer. Some other team will be drawn to his reputation and youth and will offer him an insane amount of money for the production he historically has done. Unless he decides he wants the Cardinals experience and playoff baseball we'll let him walk and take the draft pick. Grichuk will become the permanent RF and Piscotty will become the 4th. At the end of 2016 a tough decision will need to be made on Jay but there is a whole lot of baseball to be played between now and then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bauman Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 I like Grichuk a lot but I'm not sure why liking him has to lead to Jon Jay bashing (MB73) or saying he should be traded (Dwayne's World). Fact is, it's nice having 4 competent outfielders as there are always times when one of the 4 is injured or someone could use a day off. Plus, with Heyward being a FA at the end of this year and Jay at the end of 2016 we need to keep our options open going forward. I suspect what will happen is Heyward will get a 1 yr qualifying offer and a "reasonable" long term offer. Some other team will be drawn to his reputation and youth and will offer him an insane amount of money for the production he historically has done. Unless he decides he wants the Cardinals experience and playoff baseball we'll let him walk and take the draft pick. Grichuk will become the permanent RF and Piscotty will become the 4th. At the end of 2016 a tough decision will need to be made on Jay but there is a whole lot of baseball to be played between now and then. Great post and analysis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsmith19 Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Grichuk just made yet another spectacular play, a rare double play; with Jon (nice guy) Jay it's a double and a run scored and no one out. Does this show up on "WAR"? Outfield defense matters. A lot. Especially in CF. You cannot go far with the worst CF arm in MLB. Grichuk is a 23 year old potential 5 tool player with All Star abilities whereas Jay is a one tool 30 year old player with no upside: F arm, C- range & glove, D speed, D- power, B batting average. (the play will be on ESPN all day and night, McCarver called it one of the greatest plays he's ever seen) El Oh El. Yes, defense counts in WAR. Google is your friend... PS: The Cardinals have won two pennants and one World Series with Jay's arm in CF. Even Tim McCarver knows that. I like Grichuk a lot but I'm not sure why liking him has to lead to Jon Jay bashing (MB73) or saying he should be traded (Dwayne's World). Fact is, it's nice having 4 competent outfielders as there are always times when one of the 4 is injured or someone could use a day off. Plus, with Heyward being a FA at the end of this year and Jay at the end of 2016 we need to keep our options open going forward. I suspect what will happen is Heyward will get a 1 yr qualifying offer and a "reasonable" long term offer. Some other team will be drawn to his reputation and youth and will offer him an insane amount of money for the production he historically has done. Unless he decides he wants the Cardinals experience and playoff baseball we'll let him walk and take the draft pick. Grichuk will become the permanent RF and Piscotty will become the 4th. At the end of 2016 a tough decision will need to be made on Jay but there is a whole lot of baseball to be played between now and then. Fully agree...with the caveat that I think it's far from a sure bet that either Grichuk or Piscotty will be everyday players with the big club in 2016. If Heyward walks (which I agree is likely), then I expect another outfielder to be brought in from outside the organization. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willie Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Unless our pitching can carry us I don't think our future is that bright. Holiday and Jhonny are old. Yadi has seen his best days. Wainwright ? Carp is not a kid. First base? Maybe Jeff Lunauh (sp) should get more credit for our current success than he gets. Houston is amazing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MB73 Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 I am a strong believer in sabermetrics, hopped aboard in the early '80's with Bill James ("runs created") who before the '82 season correctly cited the wisdom of Whitey Herzog's transformation of the Cardinals to adapt to the huge artificial turf stadium with speed speed speed, defense, and pitching. But sabermetrics are not everything to be taken into consideration, they are not infallible, including WAR. Grichuk hasn't played enough to establish a credible WAR. Grichuk has superior abilities across the board and no, WAR does not capture all of the aspects of defense... runners going from 1st to 3rd every time on Jay who wouldn't even try on 90% of the CF's in MLB. (How about 2012 & 2013 when Molina's defensive WAR was only 2 or 2.5... any good baseball man will tell you that is very low. How do you calculate the runners having to stay close to first base in fear of being picked off by Molina? How do you really understand how many runners do not try to steal on Molina because of his prowess? Etcetera. ) Grichuk is a superior athlete, 23 yo, only 170 at bats in MLB, he should be given much more playing time than Jay, 30. He has all the tools, though he is not proven. Jay has proven he has only one tool. Jay always hits .290+, but has little power, below average speed on the bases for a MLB CF, average to below average range and glove skills, (some years he gets to the ball better, he is having a good year so far), and Jay has a terrible arm. Grichuk is the future, though, sure, he has to earn it. Nice .924 OPS so far in 2015. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMM28 Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Grichuk isn't exactly a can't miss prospect. The guy never cracked the top 100 and wasn't really ever that highly thought of. His minor league stats aren't earth shattering either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crymdg2 Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Grichuk isn't exactly a can't miss prospect. The guy never cracked the top 100 and wasn't really ever that highly thought of. His minor league stats aren't earth shattering either. He was thought of enough to be picked ahead of Mike Trout. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dwayne's_World Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Grichuk isn't exactly a can't miss prospect. The guy never cracked the top 100 and wasn't really ever that highly thought of. His minor league stats aren't earth shattering either. Surprisingly Anaheim had two picks in a row (24 & 25) in 2009 and drafted Grichuk and then Trout. The Cards also drafted Shelby Miller with the 19th pick. I like what I see with Grichuk and I think he will only continue to get better, but he still has a lot to learn at the plate. I agree with MB that he is a 5 tool player, his defense is A+ and it has paid dividends this season. Obviously 23 other teams whiffed with Trout in that draft.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dwayne's_World Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Also, Nelson Cruz has 18 homers, Heyward has 4. Seattle is paying Cruz $14 mil for 4 years, a bargain as a free agent signing. Why did we not simply sign Cruz as a free agent in the offseason instead of giving up a talented starting pitcher for Hopeless Heyward? Doesn't make any sense.... Mo rarely makes any mistakes but this has turned out to be one of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMM28 Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Grichuk may be a fine LF someday but calling him a 5 tool player is a huuuuge stretch. He hasn't hit over .300 since rookie ball. His defense is good but not great. His speed is meh. He should have some good pop in his bat consistently. Bourjos was also ranked ahead of Trout for a little while, for what that's worth. All that said I'm sure Grichuk will turn into a HOF because that's just Cardinals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moytoy12 Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Grichuk isn't exactly a can't miss prospect. The guy never cracked the top 100 and wasn't really ever that highly thought of. His minor league stats aren't earth shattering either. 'roids Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsmith19 Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 I'm not sure what the "five tools" are that people think Grichuk has. He did not hit for average or get on base above the very low minors, and struck out almost five times as often as he walked. The list of guys who turned into productive major leaguers with plate discpline that poor is very short. He does have plus power, and his defense does look like it has improved from what the minor league scouting reports said. But 25 homers in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League is not exactly anything to write home about. And before the Angels traded him, they viewed him as a corner outfielder who could maybe play center in a pinch. Yes, he was once considered a good prospect, but he stalled at AA. That happens to a lot of first rounders. If it didn't, there would be 10 or 15 Mike Trouts show up every year. The fact that he had stalled as a prospect was why the Angels were willing to include him in a package deal for a declining David Freese and give a corner oufield spot to Kole Calhoun, who was also not considered a top prospect. This is not a guy I would be willing to count on as a starter going forward until I see a lot more than one good 50 PA stretch. My biggest concern about the Cardinals is the lack of any real hitting prospects on the horizon. Other than Carpenter and Wong they really don't have anybody under the age of 30 to get very excited about offensively. Piscotty is getting the John Gall treatment now--overhyped simply because he is the only hitter who shows any real promise in the system. He is trying to reinvent himself as more of a power hitter now, but it is hard for me to get too excited by his minor league record either. After him, there is a pretty big gap in the system in terms of position player prospects. Diaz is almost 25 and not exactly lighting up the Texas League. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MB73 Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 5 tools, Grichuk: Established: 1. PLUS ARM 2. PLUS RANGE AND GLOVE SKILLS in the outfield 3. PLUS SPEED on the bases TBD, a long way to go, but he shows the abilities necessary: 4. PLUS POWER with > .900 OPS (looks like he will qualify if he continues to make contact) 5. PLUS BA / on base %.... over .300 BA (not a sure thing of course) He is 23 years old. They need to play him over Jay and even Heyward sometimes and see what we have going into next year with Heyward a question mark and Holliday aging. He will pay off on defense alone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 5 tools, Grichuk: Established: 1. PLUS ARM 2. PLUS RANGE AND GLOVE SKILLS in the outfield 3. PLUS SPEED on the bases TBD, a long way to go, but he shows the abilities necessary: 4. PLUS POWER with > .900 OPS (looks like he will qualify) 5. PLUS BA / on base %.... over .300 BA (not a sure thing of course) He is 23 year old. I think he has a decent arm. I don't know if I would call it a plus arm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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