Conference Schedule

[slufan13]

I am glad you all have your opinions, many like 13 here. One fo the key items in the "Dayton model" is that short of Price and Pollard, all their guys were upperclassmen. And Price and Pollard contributed nothing (despite Pollard's one game) in essence to their run other than blows for the bigger contributors.

I like some of 13s assessments, but most are speculative based on nothing factual. And my opinion disagrees ....

Lancona did not look "decent down the stretch" to me. I believe if there was another option, Crews would have used it. Maybe Agbeko's start against Wichita was not so much a "high" from the coaching staff but an exasperation that the upperclassmen on the bench were failing. If another year in the system is assured to "make him good," please critique how that worked for Justin Johnson, Bryce Husak and many others. And Manning "improved as the season went on" is again subjective; in what areas, defense? I'll give that but its not complete and we need a full player in John's shoes. A trained seal can stretch the "D" but that doesn't mean the shots will fall -- hell, I can stretch the D by launching shots --- making them is the issue and making them at a consistent 40% rate with the game on the line is the complicating factor. I have seen no such consistency demonstrated for any sustained amount of time by Lancona, Crawford and McBroom. And who thinks McBroom is a three-point "threat?" Again, I'd zone us and dare any of these guys to beat me. And it might happen or it might not but I'd rather take my chances on betting inexperience will trump on most nights than not.

I'm going to root liek hell but my expectations will be lower -- certainly lower than these past years.

I'm kind of torn with larry72's comeback on me because, yes, the ultimate successful season for me has to end in a dance card visit. But as a teacher, I believe the future might be better served by playing more games next year, then taking another preseason overseas trip the year following. I think that would bode well fro a re-emergence for Lancona/Agbeko/Crawford's junior years. Add to that teh two seniors and five/six sophomores, and that look sgreat to me.

I disagree that anyone could stretch the D. Teams dared guys like Jett or Evans to shoot from 3. Hell sometimes they even dared Barnett to shoot it. Lancona can stretch the defense and I believe he was put on the court to do just that. Not even make the shot but to give Dwayne more space in the paint.

Agbeko started against Old Dominion and Wichita St. Our 7th and 8th games of the season. I guess that just tells me that after 6 games and a couple months of practice that Agbeko had impressed the staff. Let's not forget he's been playing organized basketball in the states for only 4 or 5 years now. That's why he's different from any of those guys you listed.

John Manning's stats in his first 22 (missed 2 games with an injury) games: 2.27 ppg 1.72 rpg 1.22 bpg.

John Manning's stats in his last 10 games: 3.1 ppg 1.2 rpg .58 bpg

So his offensive actually improved and the rest of his stats went down. So I consider us both right/wrong on that.

I'm torn on what to think about McBroom. Outside of Crawford and Lancona, he was shot the highest percentage from 3. But he was downright bad down the stretch. He probably isn't a true point guard and he doesn't have great size. His defense got a lot better as the season went on and then completely regressed down the stretch. Not sure what to think. He didn't play a ton of minutes. Maybe having a full season off hurt him? I think either Reynolds or Bartley will take minutes from him next season. Not just as a backup PG but actually eat into his minutes at PG by the end of the season. McBroom will get plenty of time. He'll need one of those guys to take his minutes.

Crawford can shoot the ball. I know he had limited minutes this past season, but he looks like the best pure shooter on the team. I trust the reports that Yacoubou can shoot it as well. I think Lancona will become an Ellis-like player with his shooting ability.

Why do I think this? Watch warm ups. Yes I know warm ups are different than a game, but you can still take something from this.

McCall has the flattest shot of anyone I've ever seen that actually made a decent amount of shots. His shot had to be perfect to go in.

Jett and Evans. We know just weren't good 3 point shooters. They had not great form and a slow shot.

Barnett. I'm not sure I ever saw him release the ball the same way twice. There were times where he released the ball having one hand on each end of the ball.

McBroom. He has a low release and is already challenged by height.

Look at it. Crawford has textbook form on his shots and he has hit shots. Not a lot, but he has hit them. Especially against zone defenses (St. Bona) Lancona has a little bit of a flat shot as well but he has time to fix that. I also think his height allows for more room for error. Yacoubou is said to be a good shooter. I'll trust that.

Be patient with the team next season. They may start slow but they'll finish fast. The most likely trip to the NCAA's is probably winning the A10 Tourney but I don't think an at large bid is out of the question. Early season struggles will make an at large berth pretty tough, but we'll see. NIT is the most likely scenario. But I don't think it'll be anything near a "situation" type year. Even though I expect a lot of early season struggles, I don't see us losing to Austin Peay and Bowling Green. That's "situation" type year.

[slu72]

If you look at it objectively here's what we got. No proven inside or outside scorers. On D, other than JM, we 'll have to wait and see if these guys are buying in 100% on the concept of playing lock down D. Right now, I don't see any JJs or Junyahs at the guard position. The FR are going to have a learning curve on help D, fighting thru screens, dealing with players who have the moves and strength they've not encountered on a night in night out basis. And after writing this, I'm suddenly worried the NIT may not come to pass.

[hsmith19]

@smith --- you don't know yet who we are playing so making a prediction/projection on wins right now is absurd. The real question is why set expectations? I am looking at a season's measurement of success by individual and team growth. Whatever that win number is is immaterial to me. UInfortunately, measures will always include wins and losses, ppg, rpg and so on.

Case in point: when the first "savior" of the program arrived, Grawer would yank Monroe Douglass after every mistake he made. Probably used it as a teaching moment in the learning process. Good move? Some sai dyes but I said no because the kid was more focused on not making mistakes as opposed to playing in his natural flow. About halfway through the season, Grawer stopped it and Douglass started to deliver.

I don't care what the number of wins was during the "situation" year and it's not a benchmark for the coming season by any means.

You are the one who made a prediction/projection/expectation based on the "situation" year. You can't have it three ways at once--set an expectation, then retract it while simultaneously saying nobody else can set expectations and the expectations they set are unreasonable.

I will wager anything you want that we end up with more than 12 wins next year. Yes, that's with the schedule sight unseen.

[Bizziken]

Well...what games DO we know about: @Wichita State, @Indiana State with Vandy and SIUC at Chaifetz? SIUE? I also think it's safe to assume that we will play Dayton, Duquesne, and VCU each twice. That is almost 1/3 of the schedule. I'd be happy with a .500 record in these 'known' games.

I can't wait for next season. As much as I loved being ranked and getting exposure, it'll be a relief not to have a target on our backs with such an unknown team. There will be growing pains for sure, but I think this team will be fun to watch. It is way more frustrating when a 4-year senior starter makes a stupid mistake than when a freshman or sophomore makes one.

[kshoe]

Well...what games DO we know about: @Wichita State, @Indiana State with Vandy and SIUC at Chaifetz? SIUE? I also think it's safe to assume that we will play Dayton, Duquesne, and VCU each twice. That is almost 1/3 of the schedule. I'd be happy with a .500 record in these 'known' games.

I can't wait for next season. As much as I loved being ranked and getting exposure, it'll be a relief not to have a target on our backs with such an unknown team. There will be growing pains for sure, but I think this team will be fun to watch. It is way more frustrating when a 4-year senior starter makes a stupid mistake than when a freshman or sophomore makes one.

If you assume that a handful of opponents will be buy-games and it really doesn't matter who those teams are, we basically know the schedule next year except for 1) which A-10 teams other than Dayton will we play twice 2) who is in the Corpus Christi tourney and 3) will we start one or two more home and homes with quality teams.

Hsmith is absolutely right that a prediction/projection/expectation can be reasonably made at this point if one wants to do so.

[Bizziken]

If you assume that a handful of opponents will be buy-games and it really doesn't matter who those teams are, we basically know the schedule next year except for 1) which A-10 teams other than Dayton will we play twice 2) who is in the Corpus Christi tourney and 3) will we start one or two more home and homes with quality teams.

Hsmith is absolutely right that a prediction/projection/expectation can be reasonably made at this point if one wants to do so.

I exercised some restraint because I didn't want to jump the gun, but since we can realistically guess 14-16 of our 18 league games and 4-5 of our non-conference games it is completely reasonable to make a 'way-too-early' prediction

[TheChosenOne]

@smith --- you don't know yet who we are playing so making a prediction/projection on wins right now is absurd. The real question is why set expectations? I am looking at a season's measurement of success by individual and team growth. Whatever that win number is is immaterial to me. UInfortunately, measures will always include wins and losses, ppg, rpg and so on.

Case in point: when the first "savior" of the program arrived, Grawer would yank Monroe Douglass after every mistake he made. Probably used it as a teaching moment in the learning process. Good move? Some sai dyes but I said no because the kid was more focused on not making mistakes as opposed to playing in his natural flow. About halfway through the season, Grawer stopped it and Douglass started to deliver.

I don't care what the number of wins was during the "situation" year and it's not a benchmark for the coming season by any means.

I think most of us would have to agree with those expectations with really an entirely new roster this coming season. I am likely going to be less concerned about win total than seeing the team develop throughout the season, but that is because I honestly have no idea what to expect from a team with guys who have contributed little or nothing for the Billikens.

[TheChosenOne]

If you look at it objectively here's what we got. No proven inside or outside scorers. On D, other than JM, we 'll have to wait and see if these guys are buying in 100% on the concept of playing lock down D. Right now, I don't see any JJs or Junyahs at the guard position. The FR are going to have a learning curve on help D, fighting thru screens, dealing with players who have the moves and strength they've not encountered on a night in night out basis. And after writing this, I'm suddenly worried the NIT may not come to pass.

What about Ash? Shouldn't he be capable of defending at a high level based on his time at Nova and physical ability.

Also, Roby fits the bill of a guy that could be a defensive stopper. From what I saw, he has holes in his game, but he has the length, strength, and athleticism to really defend. Reynolds appeared to have similar qualities with a more complete offensive skill set, but not as physically gifted as Roby.

[Taj79]

@kshoe --- as my lawyer tells me, the answer is always "it depends" ..... if my bottom line is program recognition then yes, going to the NCAA four straight years is absolutely the way I'd like to go. If, however,my bottom line is to get these newbies the game experience and on the job training, then it might be extending the season and just playing more games. If my bottom line is to pad the coffers with more NCAA dollars and credits, we are back to the NCAAs. As I said, I will take any psot-season appearance next year as gravy.

@13 .... you can believe what you want and I do not disagree with some of the stuff you are saying. Lancona gave the "impression" he could shoot the three and I agree that that seems to be his calling, but the sample size is too small todetermine if it was/will be a continued success. I think it will.

Same with Agbeko. You can claim what you want but I saw the guy on Uconn from a similar situation --- Brimah? --- and he did better.In both cases, there is enough promise to keep an open mind. I have that but I don't believe there is much documented proof to move off the hope square. It's like waiting on the Grandy bus to arrive.

Okay, Manning went up .83 ppg in his last ten games. If that's the measure for "offensive improvement" count me in the camp that is still waiting before I make that pronouncement. If I'm the coach and I get to the 7th or 8th OOC game (many of which are "buy" games as noted in the schedule/record prediction folly) and John's improvement remains marginal, I cut bait and move Gillmann and Jolly in for the future. At least I've got them for three plus more years.

Your trust in reports is admirable. Was '13 your grad year? Or your matriculation year? In any case let me be the first to caution you that reports and layup lines in practice mean squaw-doosh to quote Tony Reali. Research "Deiner ,Drew." I played with many guys who were great practice players, batting practice Babe Ruth's, shoot-around uni-bombers, and practice field Dick Butkuses. Come game time, not so much. And if you are going to speculate on McBroom's regression as part of a transfer year sit down, here comes Yacoubou. I don't believe that was the case --- I think the scouting report coupled with height and release point caught up to Austin, that's all.

I think the future is bright; the present of 2014-15,not so much. I'm applying a different standard for evaluation, and it's not the won-loss record or the number of wins.

[slu72]

Bottom line: next season is one big question mark. The known variables are AM, JM, and GG. Not a whole lot of scoring in that group, and I wouldn't call any one of them a lockdown defender. AY has limited credentials, but who knows what happened at Nova w/ him and Wright. This year's FR too small a sample size to make any judgements. Incoming FR=baby steps. Doesn't sound like a dance team, but the games will be interesting.

[kshoe]

Taj,

I really don't know where to go with you on this one. If you honestly believe a 39 game season capped by a trip to the cbi could in any manner be considered better than a 34 game season capped by a first round loss in the NCAA tourney, then I think you have lost your marbles.

Thankfully I doubt there is a single other poster on this board that would agree with you on this one.

P.s. If you really believe that you are basically saying you'd rather this team finish the regular season 18-13 then 24-7. Because that is the difference between a cbi and an NCAA team.

[For-DaLove]

Any post season bid attained by this team next year should be considered gravy and looked at as a continuation of the overall learning experience. More games ---- ala an extended run in an NIT or CBI --- might be a better opportunity for more games and more learning than a proud one-and-done in the Big Dance. I guess it all depends on what you individual goal will be.

Mine is development for the future.

The "extra experience" argument is so dumb. More learning to help them do what? Reach the NCAA tournament the next year?

[slu72]

As stated many times before, the best experience for any team is making the dance. Getting selected is a chore and means you're a pretty damn good team even if you get in via winning your conf tourney. I'd rather build off of that than playing a relatively meaningless 3 or 4 games. That said, the most we can reasonably expect year is the NIT. If that's where we end up, then build off that and go hard every game. If it's the CBI same applies. The extra games can't hurt, but even if they were to win the championship in either one, the team would still have preferred a one and done dance bid.

[Clock_Tower]

+1 it will be fun to see how Ash, the rising sophomores and freshman gel and grow next year. Maybe we see the return of Roy as his Disney quote will resemble the Billikens again. He was such a perfect foil - too bad he suddenly got feelings

Roy didn't just get feelings. He got hammered, sometimes deservedly, but mostly not, by bullies who have inflated views of themselves but many of whom offer very little to this board. A true loss for this board.

[slu72]

Roy didn't just get feelings. He got hammered, sometimes deservedly, but mostly not, by bullies who have inflated views of themselves but many of whom offer very little to this board. A true loss for this board.

True, you can't knock Broy for being a purist.

[brianstl]

The board misses Roy.

[For-DaLove]

Roy brought an interesting perspective to this board. I laughed at most of the stuff he posted. His judgmental ways really can't be replicated by anyone else

[HoyaBilliken]

@kshoe --- as my lawyer tells me, the answer is always "it depends" ..... if my bottom line is program recognition then yes, going to the NCAA four straight years is absolutely the way I'd like to go. If, however,my bottom line is to get these newbies the game experience and on the job training, then it might be extending the season and just playing more games. If my bottom line is to pad the coffers with more NCAA dollars and credits, we are back to the NCAAs. As I said, I will take any psot-season appearance next year as gravy.

@13 .... you can believe what you want and I do not disagree with some of the stuff you are saying. Lancona gave the "impression" he could shoot the three and I agree that that seems to be his calling, but the sample size is too small todetermine if it was/will be a continued success. I think it will.

Same with Agbeko. You can claim what you want but I saw the guy on Uconn from a similar situation --- Brimah? --- and he did better.In both cases, there is enough promise to keep an open mind. I have that but I don't believe there is much documented proof to move off the hope square. It's like waiting on the Grandy bus to arrive.

Okay, Manning went up .83 ppg in his last ten games. If that's the measure for "offensive improvement" count me in the camp that is still waiting before I make that pronouncement. If I'm the coach and I get to the 7th or 8th OOC game (many of which are "buy" games as noted in the schedule/record prediction folly) and John's improvement remains marginal, I cut bait and move Gillmann and Jolly in for the future. At least I've got them for three plus more years.

Your trust in reports is admirable. Was '13 your grad year? Or your matriculation year? In any case let me be the first to caution you that reports and layup lines in practice mean squaw-doosh to quote Tony Reali. Research "Deiner ,Drew." I played with many guys who were great practice players, batting practice Babe Ruth's, shoot-around uni-bombers, and practice field Dick Butkuses. Come game time, not so much. And if you are going to speculate on McBroom's regression as part of a transfer year sit down, here comes Yacoubou. I don't believe that was the case --- I think the scouting report coupled with height and release point caught up to Austin, that's all.

I think the future is bright; the present of 2014-15,not so much. I'm applying a different standard for evaluation, and it's not the won-loss record or the number of wins.

@Taj....... You are correct that sample size for freshmen was small but in the limited minutes they showed much more promise then you have given them credit for. Using Brimah from UConn to say he played in the same situation as Lancona and Agbeko, and he did better is erroneous. Brimah showed more because he played in 40 games, started 17 and averaged 16.2 minutes per game. Games begin in November and you will be just as wrong then as you are now in your assessment of this team.

[Taj79]

@Hoya ----thank you and here's hoping I AM wrong. Time and results will be the only true measures of anyone's predictions/projections. Done on this topic.

[brownwolves]

The Billikens play St Bonaventure in Otterville this winter!

I LOVE IT. JUST CAN'T WAIT FOR OUR JUSUIT BIG BROTHERS TO ARRIVE.

There is no other team in the A10 that we enjoy playing against.

Go Bonnies

[Bay Area Billiken]

As always, we Billikens give a proper Ode to Inaccessible Olean, lost as it is in the Woods of the Enchanted Mountains.

Have a good Spring thaw and Summer too.

We'll see you next year.

[HoyaBilliken]

Don't worry FAKEINDIANS, we will see you in that rust bucket. Instead of solving your PG problems, you are stalking our board. You guys are a known entity and we are not. So when we get that W it will taste even better. Say hello to the cows for me.

[cgeldmacher]

I am going to continue to say it ......

Embrace the experience.

Next year has the makings of a "situation"-type year. The year was when the current crop of seniors were freshmen. Majerus' ONLY losing season ever. I think it's going to be a developmental year complete with unexpected highs and unexpected lows. We'll win some games we should not,and we will lose some games we expected to win. Two reasons:

1) Five or six freshmen (with two or three of those being big men "projects" in Gillmann, Jolley and maybe Welmer) coupled with three relatively unknown sophomores (Lancona, Agbeko and Crawford), one kid coming off a sit-out year (Yacoubou),and two seniors (Manning and Glaze) with questionable (at best) productivity records to date,and

2) if you believe the pundits and accept that college is a guards' game, a large lack of experience and depth in our backcourt.

I embrace the experience because it will be fun just watching the kids develop.

+1 The joy in being a Billiken fan next year will come from seeing what these guys may become in a year or two. It will not come from seeing anything close to what we had last year.

[cgeldmacher]

I also hope that we schedule a few non-conference opponents for Saturday games on the road in big cities that are close enought to travel to. Some suggestions are: DePaul, Loyola Chigago, IUPUI, Butler, Memphis, and UMKC. I didn't include the obvious "we're too big to play you schools" on the list like Illinois, Purdue, Notre Dame, Indiana, Kentucky, or Louisville, although any of those would be fine as well.