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The Wiz

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    The Wizard of Odds

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Listener of the Streets

Listener of the Streets (6/7)

  1. I could have fed individual players in to the computer but instead I fed the whole roster in.... There were 6 players that the computer said could play on a Schertz team...3 sure players and 3 maybe/bench players. Of course the player it liked the best was Parker but reports say he is not coming back. Another player the computer thought would be good was Hargrove...and we know he is not coming back . Finally, there is Jimerson. If Schertz brings 5 players Jimerson and a few other ISU players might get a few min less /gm which isn't necessarily bad. If he brings 4 then Jimerson and the other ISU players could play their usual mins. On the maybe / bench players(getting about the same min they got this year).....Hughes(he would need to improve shooting inside the arc)...Thames (he would need to improve FT shooting)...Curcic (he would need to get a few more rebs) Bottom line...1 player (Jimerson) could make the cut from the entire existing roster....3 could be maybe/bench players...Thames...Hughes...Curcic....the others would not make the cut.
  2. It looks like the next piece of the puzzle is this game. While it would be interesting to see VCU play against ISU as a gauge against A-10 competition, it really isn't necessary. ISU just beat Cinn ...a team that the computer sees as an equal to Dayton...that should tell you all you need to know about ISU players competing in the A10. As I mentioned in the Cincy spread thread, ISU and Cinn (and Dayton) are both A- teams. This should also answer any NCAA questions (although a bit too late) about ISU having too weak of a schedule to be a Dancer. Schertz mentioned before Selection Sunday...if they went Dancing it would prove they belonged...if they were not selected he would use the NIT to prove that the NCAA was wrong. Finally, I am glad ISU won last night. While it seems Lville has moved on ...a loss might have given them a chance to circle back. Adding another week on not only discourages them from pursuing further but it keeps other poachers at bay also. Teams thinking about swooping in on Schertz will now think that if The Ville couldn't sign him, maybe we should look elsewhere as he seems to be taken. Bottom line...As the computer forecasted, there wouldn't be a coaching decision until the first week in April. In any case, we should have a new coach in the next 6-8 days. Tick, tick...tick...the finish line is in sight.
  3. It sounds like Lville is under pressure to hire a coach. Schertz probably told them "nothing happens till ISU loses" because Schertz reads "The Wiz" threads. Lville then sees (they too read The Wiz) that ISU is favored yet again to win tonight. We (Lville ) are not going to wait a week ...we need an answer now....they don't get an answer and decide to move on to Pitino ...a popular name in the Ville. I think at this point it would be better for ISU to win tonight....A loss might reopen the door tonight for a Cards signing. A win not only forces Lville to move on BUT also sends a hands off signal to other teams in the meantime....Other teams ..."wow this Schertz guy didn't sign with U of L we better look else where". Tick...tick...tick
  4. https://www.cardchronicle.com/2024/3/26/24112483/louisville-coaching-search-update
  5. Not sure how the money will flow...but things will change. Just think back a year or 2 ago and how difficult it was to transfer...In the next few months anybody will be able to transfer at anytime to anywhere.. Pooled money....this too will change
  6. How about this for an idea....Pooled money Give a coach a chunk of money...say $4 million and tell him $1 million is yours...the other cash is for you to spend on NIL...anything left over is yours...IF you make the Big Dance. If you don't, then the money comes back to whoever paid it...boosters, school etc. You can fiddle with the numbers and make them come out however you like but the answer is to let the Coach decide on his salary and how much he pays the players. A couple of losing seasons and it means he made some poor decisions and not just coaching decisions but money management ones and would probably be gone. I think this is where things are headed in the future.
  7. Here is a pod cast that is worth a listen. This guy is the U of L announcer, sports caster for channel 12 in Lville and recruiting analyst. More importantly, he has his finger on the pulse of the AD, boosters and fan base of UL. In this podcast he talks about the 3 candidates under consideration...Schertz, Kelsey and Holloway. He gives a 3rd party view of pro's and con's on each coach. At one point , he says he thinks Schertz would be a good fit for SLU...better than U of L. Also interesting to hear his take on the other 2 coaches. This is a must listen if you are interested in the SLU coach search (and if you're not why would you be on this thread) and you are concerned that UL is about swoop and grab our next coach. Of course, nothing is done until it's done but remember this....nothing happens till ISU loses.....tick...tick...tick https://www.12news.com/video/sports/locked-on/lo-kentucky/louisville-show/could-josh-schertz-pat-kelsey-or-shaheen-holloway-succeed-as-the-next-louisville-basketball-hc/535-60caf5ed-49b6-4881-a8e4-48df4114415e
  8. Since Holloway / Seton Hall seems to be another piece of the puzzle...I have SH over UNLV by 6 . Nothing happens till ISU loses... Tick...tick ...tick
  9. The clock is ticking... We are coming down to the wire ...in more ways than one. I am sure many on this board are not happy with the headline. If you think the Schertz deal is done, you are ok with an ISU win ...if not, you are a Bearcat fan. This is a meeting of 2 A- teams both who were wrongfully shunned by the NCAA and both who were trying to make a point. That point is ...The NCAA should have listened to their own computer.. Btw...as you may know the NCAA turns off its computer on Selection Sunday. But mine keeps going and mine shows that if today were Selection Sunday ISU would have a 57% chance to Dance. Of course that is based on a combo of NET and Selection committee. In order to overcome the humans (assuming you are not P5) you need about 70% to Dance. If you are P5, you are good to go at 50% +. Game Preview...This will be ISU toughest challenge so far in the NIT. If the computer is right, we are looking at Apr 2 or 4 as a decision day which is what the program has been showing from the beginning. As mentioned above these are 2 evenly matched teams at A-... The computer warns there is a flashing red light on Cinn... they are missing 3 players all seriously injured in the last few games ...no questionable...out for season. These players average a combined 70 min /gm. Cincy is hurting both in production and depth. Computer says if ISU can have an average game... it could turn into a blowout. Bottom line....Rule #1...Nothing happens till ISU loses...Rule #2...In case of speculation, always follow Rule #1 Tick...tick...tick
  10. Yes, they looked good against a big physical team.... Some quick important stats...TOs.. Ind St 10... Mn 15 ...And then we look at the next 2 stats FG% and Reb ...ISU won both ...usually indicates a sure win. (80% of the time)... TOs alone were worth 11 pts on a projection Next up Cinn...the toughest NIT opp so far BUT the computer has ISU winning ...stay tuned for tomorrow's numbers. The long and winding road to the new coach continues. Rule #1....Nothing happens till ISU loses Rule #2....When basketball speculating ...always check Rule #1
  11. If you read my earlier spread thread post, I show ISU winning today's game by 6. If they win, they will play Cinn. ISU would be favored in that game too. But the cumulative probability of winning both games is only 42%. So a 58% chance of mid week announcement. No one from the athletic department called me, so here is how it probably went down. Hey, ISU has 2 games this week. What happens if they lose one of those games. We better give the band a couple of days notice to make sure someone shows up. If ISU loses today, let's make it for Tues or Wed. If they lose on Tues or Wed , we can make it on Wed or Thur. What happens if ISU wins both games? Then tell the band we were just kidding ...and to be ready for Wed through Fri of next week ...for sure.
  12. Post season rules for SLU followers..... Rule #1....Nothing happens till ISU loses Rule #2....What about alternative plans and speculation...always follow Rule #1
  13. A nice win for ISU. Next up is Minn at 1PM on Sun (ESPN2)...A tad better than SMU but a game ISU should win. The team most likely to win overall is Wake Forest....In fact the computer is showing a matchup with Wake and ISU. But because they are on the other side of the bracket that wouldn't happen till April 4 in the Championship game....not something that most Bills fans want to hear. Well at least the TV coverage will be better so that Bills fans can watch...Bills 2 or Bills too or Bills East or just plain BS ( Bills -Sycamores)
  14. I will have to partially disagree with you on this. Have you ever seen a maiden horse race...10 horses that have never raced before yet there is a favorite and an finishing order for each horse even though there is no public data. Again, there can be surprises but there can be surprises even with data. There are algorithms for everything ....see my preseason forecast when there isn't any real data but the computer uses a Bayesian model to forecast what is going to happen. In the A-10 this year, it was pretty spot on when it said that 9 teams would be bunched together at the top and pretty much had that correct. While 1 game here or there might change the order...at the end of the season their was a huge gap between the haves and the have nots (9th and 10th place in the A-10) . The computer knew that at the 8th game of the season the BIlls were doomed for the season. You could say everybody knew that after a 40 point drubbing by SIU. But the computer made that forecast in early Nov before any games had been played. Even in the game last night with all the uncertainty , the computer had a forecast that said ISU would win by 6-8pts ...I consider a win by ISU by 1-3 over the spread a pretty good forecast. While SMU and ISU have never played , the computer looked at each game that each team had played this season and then connected the data dots of the other 360 teams to the current teams through a series of simulations. There is even a "luck" factor...when things seem "even" a team always seems to win (or lose). The computer thinks that The Bills luck is about to change .
  15. Just a quick review before we get to the main stuff.... TO s were equal at 10...which mean we move on to the next 2 categories...FG%...ISU won that 55% to 48%....and rebs ...36-31 won that too...which gives you an 80% chance to win ..in this case 100%....Interestingly ISU trailed most of the game in score and TOs...but once the TOs turned around the score did too. Some things never change. The important take away in this game was the uncertainty going in....Coach and players in a no man's land...a lot of distracting turmoil,...who will be where next year, .... what about the fans especially since it is a home game...portal questions...As a result there was a great deal of uncertainty...this could easily have been a loss. Add the fact that they were down through the 1st 3 quarters ...this outcome bodes well for the Coach, the players and The Bills. CJS was able to rally the troops...change things up at half time......get the team back on track...speaks volumes about the Coach and the players....a sign of a winning attitude. As far as the computer is concerned, it was looking for ISU to win by 6-8 pts and they pretty much came in on target. It answered the computer's main question...can the team handle the non basketball distractions. The answer was yes and as a result the machine feels more confident about future NIT predictions regarding ISU. While the team could have easily called it a season and moved on to the next phase, they finished the job at hand....again this bodes well for The Bills. While I am anxious for the team to start doing Billiken things, it was fun to watch and see what a team that knows how to win looks like. The computer also thinks there is a good chance we may have to wait till April to get a final answer. Buckle up and enjoy the ride...
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