The Wiz Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 First ...great game by the Bills against VCU. An inexperieced team ( D- ) playing a 16th rated veteran team even. For the post game report card ...see post #138 on "VCU over Biills" thread. The VCU game concludes about as tough a stretch as we have had in a while during the regular season.....6 of the last 7 games have been against A- teams or better. While the GW game was one of our best offensively the VCU game was significant in that we played just average offensively and yet held one of the best teams in the country to a standoff. ...impressive. We have been trending up since the SIU-E game and we are now at D. Think about it...we have move up a notch on our grade with a loss on Fri ...not an easy task after 19 games. When you are playing top quality teams like GW and VCU even, it is not a fluke. I think the future looks bright. On to the next game. As you can see by the spread, Mason ( C ) will not be a push over. You have to look no further than last night's game against Davidson (still A ). Mason forced them to OT. If we take them lightly, they win. Here's what we need to do to win........ ...........................................Ideal outcome Defense FG%....................................40.9% or less 3pt%.....................................26% TO's......................................14 Thompson.............................under 50%FG....this guy shoots 54.9% Off slashline...............................44% / 35% / 69% steals by GM..........................5 or less TO.s .......................................11 or less General Total Rebounds for the Bills.........35 Bottomline..Mason doesn't take care of the ball...if we hound them we can push the TO rate up. Also we need to get 35 rebounds. Mason needs to get 2nd and 3rd chances to score. If we can keep that from happening, we win....if not it will be their game. Finally both teams are coming off of very difficult games. There will be a tendency for both teams to let up. It may come down to which team wants it the most. I am glad we are playing this game at home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westy03 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I am glad we are playing this game at home. The game is at George Mason Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 The game is at George Mason My error....might have been wishful thinking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Pelican Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 So how much do you add to the 7 now that you know it's a road game? And I guess it's wishful thinking on my part but after watching us against VCU I expect to beat George Mason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 So how much do you add to the 7 now that you know it's a road game? The 7 is correct....The "home game" was human error.....the computer doesn't make mistakes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Pelican Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The 7 is correct....The "home game" was human error.....the computer doesn't make mistakes. Ha, if you say so! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 Let he who is without error cast the first stone......... That would be Gus....would it not? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Pelican Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Let he who is without error cast the first stone......... That would be Gus....would it not? Yeah, he's like the Pope. Infallible. And apparently just as hard to fire. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bauman Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Let he who is without error cast the first stone......... That would be Gus....would it not? The game is over. aah ah. Correction. The game is not over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Good Lord White Pelican you have inside information saying the Pope is not infallible? Sorry, this is my very poor attempt to make a sarcastic humorous post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Band Legend Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Yeah, he's like the Pope. Infallible. And apparently just as hard to fire. Tell that to Benedict- I'm pretty sure he was fired, in a manner of speaking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Glad this game is on Thursday rather than tomorrow or Wednesday. Even though we fly charter all the time now, it still looks like this northeast winter storm will delay a lot of flights. Regarding the actual game: The computer can't account for Hewitt being an idiot. Mason might be the better team playing at home, but we'll most likely go on a 11-2 run to close the game and win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The "northeast storm" was actually quite a dud here; and DC about 90 south is even more in the clear. Not the time to be going to Umass, URI, Fordham or the Philly schools, however. Much ado about nothing ....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Littlebill Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 So we should have beaten a top five RPI team at home, so now we're dogs against a six win team? What will the spread in Vegas be? Any idea? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenbill Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 My Excel model using Crystal Ball monte carlo simulation analysis plus latin hypercube across 10,000 runs for Bills-Mason shows Mason by 8. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigMouthBilliken Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The "northeast storm" was actually quite a dud here; and DC about 90 south is even more in the clear. Not the time to be going to Umass, URI, Fordham or the Philly schools, however. Much ado about nothing .......Supposedly coiming hard tonight. Driving is illegal after 11 in NYC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 crowd may be smaller Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 So we should have beaten a top five RPI team at home, so now we're dogs against a six win team? What will the spread in Vegas be? Any idea? In the past Vegas has mimicked me but this year has been different ....There have been some wide differentials (5 + pts...good betting opportunites) I would guess Vegas is excited about the near miss with VCU and will undercut me ....ie less than 7 pts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I believe that as far as Vegas is concerned, the important number is the spread, not whether one team wins or not. As such, they missed badly in their spread estimates for that game. The final spread for that game, as per Team Rankings, was VCU 73.8 to SLU 61.2, a spread of 12.6 in favor of VCU. The actual score of VCU 63, SLU 61, a spread of 2.0 in favor of VCU, was not a good outcome for them. They have to tighten their estimates in order to avoid this kind of a miss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I have been looking at the storm's projected snow falls and current paths, New York apparently will get significantly less snow than what was projected, the heavy snow will fall in New England. This means that areas of the East Coast South of NY are likely to get even less snow. Of course, transportation depends not only upon the amount of snow falling down, but upon the local capability and equipment availability to remove it efficiently. A 2 inch snow fall in DC may be crippling, whereas a 2 inch snow fall in NY or north of NY is next to negligible in terms of its impact on transportation. We will see what happens but it does not look like such a terrible and crippling snow storm will hit Virginia this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MusicCityBilliken Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I have most conference games on the DVR, deleted all the OOC games. Re-watched the GW away game early this morning. Actually played pretty good and could have won that one with a few breaks. If we play like that and not like we played against Davidson, will pull it out. Okay, I will have my glass of cherry Kool aid now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenbill Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 My Excel model using Crystal Ball monte carlo simulation analysis plus latin hypercube across 10,000 runs for Bills-Mason shows Mason by 8. Monte carlo simulation nailed it. Tough break Wiz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 First ...great game by the Bills against VCU. An inexperieced team ( D- ) playing a 16th rated veteran team even. For the post game report card ...see post #138 on "VCU over Biills" thread. The VCU game concludes about as tough a stretch as we have had in a while during the regular season.....6 of the last 7 games have been against A- teams or better. While the GW game was one of our best offensively the VCU game was significant in that we played just average offensively and yet held one of the best teams in the country to a standoff. ...impressive. We have been trending up since the SIU-E game and we are now at D. Think about it...we have move up a notch on our grade with a loss on Fri ...not an easy task after 19 games. When you are playing top quality teams like GW and VCU even, it is not a fluke. I think the future looks bright. On to the next game. As you can see by the spread, Mason ( C ) will not be a push over. You have to look no further than last night's game against Davidson (still A ). Mason forced them to OT. If we take them lightly, they win. Here's what we need to do to win........ ...........................................Ideal outcome Defense FG%....................................40.9% or less 3pt%.....................................26% TO's......................................14 Thompson.............................under 50%FG....this guy shoots 54.9% Off slashline...............................44% / 35% / 69% steals by GM..........................5 or less TO.s .......................................11 or less General Total Rebounds for the Bills.........35 Bottomline..Mason doesn't take care of the ball...if we hound them we can push the TO rate up. Also we need to get 35 rebounds. Mason needs to get 2nd and 3rd chances to score. If we can keep that from happening, we win....if not it will be their game. Finally both teams are coming off of very difficult games. There will be a tendency for both teams to let up. It may come down to which team wants it the most. I am glad we are playing this game at home. Well, it looks like what was supposed to happen did........ Let's see what the report card looks like ..........................................Ideal outcome.......................actual Def FG%.......................................40.9%................................45.2%.............fail 3pt%........................................26%...................................25%...............pass TO's..........................................14......................................15.................pass Thompson.................................under 50% FG%................86%.............double fail Off FG%...........................................44%....................................41.7%........fail 3pt%............................................35%...................................25%...........fail- FT%.............................................69%...................................80%...........pass+...the irony is we have one of our best night's and so do they...82.4%...they are one of the worst FT shooting teams at 65.3% ...only slightly better than the Bills Steals by GM................................5.........................................8...............fail TO's..............................................11.......................................13..............fail General Total Reb by Bills...........................35.......................................22..............double fail Off grade.........D- Def grade........D Bottomline..........we make 2 more 3"s ( 6pts) and we pass our slashline (FG & 3's)...they make 2 less FG ( 4 pts) and the Defense passes (40.5%)............6+4 =10 pts....we win by 2...All the Bills need to do is follow the menu. The good news is no regression since things turned out as expected. Hopefully some home cooking will help in the next 2 games.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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