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VCU over the Bills by 17


The Wiz

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Troll patrol alert....Warning this thread may trigger a troll attack.

For those wanting to see the Dayton post game analysis...check the "Dayton over the Bills" thread ...post #20... for the game report card. As we pretty much did what we were supposed to do, we remain at D-.

Now onto this game...Let's see... VCU beat Duq by 6 and we beat Duq by 9 so we should beat VCU by 3....Well even though it doesn't work that way, it does show that VCU is vulnerable.

VCU (A) is not an elite team ( A+ )...they have lost to an A- team (Old Dominion) and been blown out by 2 elite teams (Va & Nova). They are rated 17th in the nation and have won 10 in a row. I would place them in a similar category to Wichita St and Davidson....so we will not see anything more difficult than we have already faced. But we will see something different...at least for this year. While they press and go after the steal (3rd in the nation) they are not that good on D....ie defending shots . There main focus is to run and gun.

So here is how we can beat them........

Ideal outcome....

Defense......

Limit them to 65pts

FG....42.8%

3 pt....32%

3pt made...limit to 7

TO....13 or more

Assists 12 or less

Johnson...12pts or less

Alie-Cox........4 reb " "

Weber.....3 assists " "

Offense.....

At least 67pts

FG....45%

3pt ....35%

FT......68%

TO's....10 or less

Bartley....no foul out (3 times this season)

VCU strengths...Steals and fast breaks....

VCU weakness...They don't take care of the ball...all the emphasis is on steals....no one talks about how they are one of the worst in protecting the ball as they are 21st in the nation in TO's.

Bottomline... We need to play Billiken ball....slow the tempo down and play D...bother them ...press them some ...go for the steal...no open shots. We need to have a decent night shooting and make some foul shots. If we play our game they can be beaten...if we play their game, we lose.

VCU is a good team but they are vulnerable.

Go Bills

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That's why they play the games. I have no misconception of it being a blowout unless we nail 10 3's. I would point out that our HC D has improved by leaps and bounds over the past 10 games and our TO pace is improving. Anyone can beat anyone. What we need to do is run McBroom off the 3 point line all night like we did to Davidson's guys, get a high post established and then go inside to the bigs. Oh, and shoot our average from 3.

No one over on VRN is taking this game lightly, of that I can assure you. No road game is easy. Ask Kentucky.

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VCU strengths...Steals and fast breaks....

VCU weakness...They don't take care of the ball...all the emphasis is on steals....no one talks about how they are one of the worst in protecting the ball as they are 21st in the nation in TO's.

Where are you getting your numbers?

http://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1/current/team/217

There is the current rankings for "Turnovers Per Game". As you can see, the rankings go from "least amount" of turnovers - to most. VCU is ranked 24th best, averaging 10.9 TO's per game. VCU is also the 3rd best in TO margin, with 7.1 - behind WVU and EKU.

VCU has been beaten by teams that can shoot the 3, and take care of the ball. Those should be the keys to the game. VCU is better on offense (28th KenPom, up from 100+ last year). The defense is still respectable, at #37 in KenPom.

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Where are you getting your numbers?

http://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1/current/team/217

There is the current rankings for "Turnovers Per Game". As you can see, the rankings go from "least amount" of turnovers - to most. VCU is ranked 24th best, averaging 10.9 TO's per game. VCU is also the 3rd best in TO margin, with 7.1 - behind WVU and EKU.

VCU has been beaten by teams that can shoot the 3, and take care of the ball. Those should be the keys to the game. VCU is better on offense (28th KenPom, up from 100+ last year). The defense is still respectable, at #37 in KenPom.

And VCU does an even better job of protecting the ball when you adjust the numbers for a per procession rate. They have the 7th lowest turnover to possession percentage in the country at 13.1% For comparison SLU ranks 291 at 18.7%.

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That's why they play the games. I have no misconception of it being a blowout unless we nail 10 3's. I would point out that our HC D has improved by leaps and bounds over the past 10 games and our TO pace is improving. Anyone can beat anyone. What we need to do is run McBroom off the 3 point line all night like we did to Davidson's guys, get a high post established and then go inside to the bigs. Oh, and shoot our average from 3.

No one over on VRN is taking this game lightly, of that I can assure you. No road game is easy. Ask Kentucky.

Well McBroom appears to be planted comfortably in the doghouse, so unless things have changed since Saturday you won't have to be overly concerned with running him off of the 3 point line. As a team we have shot the ball better from 3 of late and have had difficulty scoring inside the 3 point line (beyond Milik Yarbrough and occassionally Ash Yacoubou), so running us off of the 3 point line is probably a good strategy.

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Troll patrol alert....Warning this thread may trigger a troll attack.

For those wanting to see the Dayton post game analysis...check the "Dayton over the Bills" thread ...post #20... for the game report card. As we pretty much did what we were supposed to do, we remain at D-.

Now onto this game...Let's see... VCU beat Duq by 6 and we beat Duq by 9 so we should beat VCU by 3....Well even though it doesn't work that way, it does show that VCU is vulnerable.

VCU (A) is not an elite team ( A+ )...they have lost to an A- team (Old Dominion) and been blown out by 2 elite teams (Va & Nova). They are rated 17th in the nation and have won 10 in a row. I would place them in a similar category to Wichita St and Davidson....so we will not see anything more difficult than we have already faced. But we will see something different...at least for this year. While they press and go after the steal (3rd in the nation) they are not that good on D....ie defending shots . There main focus is to run and gun.

So here is how we can beat them........

Ideal outcome....

Defense......

Limit them to 65pts

FG....42.8%

3 pt....32%

3pt made...limit to 7

TO....13 or more

Assists 12 or less

Johnson...12pts or less

Alie-Cox........4 reb " "

Weber.....3 assists " "

Offense.....

At least 67pts

FG....45%

3pt ....35%

FT......68%

TO's....10 or less

Bartley....no foul out (3 times this season)

VCU strengths...Steals and fast breaks....

VCU weakness...They don't take care of the ball...all the emphasis is on steals....no one talks about how they are one of the worst in protecting the ball as they are 21st in the nation in TO's.

Bottomline... We need to play Billiken ball....slow the tempo down and play D...bother them ...press them some ...go for the steal...no open shots. We need to have a decent night shooting and make some foul shots. If we play our game they can be beaten...if we play their game, we lose.

VCU is a good team but they are vulnerable.

Go Bills

I'd say if we hit our defensive goals you outlined, I could live with 66 points

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Just ran my Excel model using Crystal Ball monte carlo simulation analysis plus latin hypercube across 10,000 runs for Bills-VCU and I concur with TheWiz, Rams by 17.

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That's why they play the games. I have no misconception of it being a blowout unless we nail 10 3's. I would point out that our HC D has improved by leaps and bounds over the past 10 games and our TO pace is improving. Anyone can beat anyone. What we need to do is run McBroom off the 3 point line all night like we did to Davidson's guys, get a high post established and then go inside to the bigs. Oh, and shoot our average from 3.

No one over on VRN is taking this game lightly, of that I can assure you. No road game is easy. Ask Kentucky.

You should be worried about us getting our stud sophs Lancona and Agbeko back from injury Friday.
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