The Wiz Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Troll patrol alert....Warning this thread may trigger a troll attack. For those wanting to see the Dayton post game analysis...check the "Dayton over the Bills" thread ...post #20... for the game report card. As we pretty much did what we were supposed to do, we remain at D-. Now onto this game...Let's see... VCU beat Duq by 6 and we beat Duq by 9 so we should beat VCU by 3....Well even though it doesn't work that way, it does show that VCU is vulnerable. VCU (A) is not an elite team ( A+ )...they have lost to an A- team (Old Dominion) and been blown out by 2 elite teams (Va & Nova). They are rated 17th in the nation and have won 10 in a row. I would place them in a similar category to Wichita St and Davidson....so we will not see anything more difficult than we have already faced. But we will see something different...at least for this year. While they press and go after the steal (3rd in the nation) they are not that good on D....ie defending shots . There main focus is to run and gun. So here is how we can beat them........ Ideal outcome.... Defense...... Limit them to 65pts FG....42.8% 3 pt....32% 3pt made...limit to 7 TO....13 or more Assists 12 or less Johnson...12pts or less Alie-Cox........4 reb " " Weber.....3 assists " " Offense..... At least 67pts FG....45% 3pt ....35% FT......68% TO's....10 or less Bartley....no foul out (3 times this season) VCU strengths...Steals and fast breaks.... VCU weakness...They don't take care of the ball...all the emphasis is on steals....no one talks about how they are one of the worst in protecting the ball as they are 21st in the nation in TO's. Bottomline... We need to play Billiken ball....slow the tempo down and play D...bother them ...press them some ...go for the steal...no open shots. We need to have a decent night shooting and make some foul shots. If we play our game they can be beaten...if we play their game, we lose. VCU is a good team but they are vulnerable. Go Bills Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dwayne's_World Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Only 17? I thought for sure it would be around 25 or 30... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Only 17? I thought for sure it would be around 25 or 30... The Billikens are on the rise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLU_Nick Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Only as good as WSU and Davidson huh? Haha. Um. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUDKAT Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 That's why they play the games. I have no misconception of it being a blowout unless we nail 10 3's. I would point out that our HC D has improved by leaps and bounds over the past 10 games and our TO pace is improving. Anyone can beat anyone. What we need to do is run McBroom off the 3 point line all night like we did to Davidson's guys, get a high post established and then go inside to the bigs. Oh, and shoot our average from 3. No one over on VRN is taking this game lightly, of that I can assure you. No road game is easy. Ask Kentucky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher+RamFan Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 VCU strengths...Steals and fast breaks.... VCU weakness...They don't take care of the ball...all the emphasis is on steals....no one talks about how they are one of the worst in protecting the ball as they are 21st in the nation in TO's. Where are you getting your numbers? http://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1/current/team/217 There is the current rankings for "Turnovers Per Game". As you can see, the rankings go from "least amount" of turnovers - to most. VCU is ranked 24th best, averaging 10.9 TO's per game. VCU is also the 3rd best in TO margin, with 7.1 - behind WVU and EKU. VCU has been beaten by teams that can shoot the 3, and take care of the ball. Those should be the keys to the game. VCU is better on offense (28th KenPom, up from 100+ last year). The defense is still respectable, at #37 in KenPom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Where are you getting your numbers? http://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1/current/team/217 There is the current rankings for "Turnovers Per Game". As you can see, the rankings go from "least amount" of turnovers - to most. VCU is ranked 24th best, averaging 10.9 TO's per game. VCU is also the 3rd best in TO margin, with 7.1 - behind WVU and EKU. VCU has been beaten by teams that can shoot the 3, and take care of the ball. Those should be the keys to the game. VCU is better on offense (28th KenPom, up from 100+ last year). The defense is still respectable, at #37 in KenPom. And VCU does an even better job of protecting the ball when you adjust the numbers for a per procession rate. They have the 7th lowest turnover to possession percentage in the country at 13.1% For comparison SLU ranks 291 at 18.7%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 This game is a really bad match up game for us. I could see VCU winning by 20+. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dwayne's_World Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 VCU by 28. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Littlebill Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Not saying it'll happen, but would there be a more satisfying win from a fan standpoint this year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Littlebill Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Oh and http://www.si.com/college-basketball/one-and-one/2014/03/21/stephen-f-austin-lumberjacks-vcu-rams-ncaa-tournament Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Not saying it'll happen, but would there be a more satisfying win from a fan standpoint this year? No, if we won this game it would be the highlight of the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheChosenOne Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 That's why they play the games. I have no misconception of it being a blowout unless we nail 10 3's. I would point out that our HC D has improved by leaps and bounds over the past 10 games and our TO pace is improving. Anyone can beat anyone. What we need to do is run McBroom off the 3 point line all night like we did to Davidson's guys, get a high post established and then go inside to the bigs. Oh, and shoot our average from 3. No one over on VRN is taking this game lightly, of that I can assure you. No road game is easy. Ask Kentucky. Well McBroom appears to be planted comfortably in the doghouse, so unless things have changed since Saturday you won't have to be overly concerned with running him off of the 3 point line. As a team we have shot the ball better from 3 of late and have had difficulty scoring inside the 3 point line (beyond Milik Yarbrough and occassionally Ash Yacoubou), so running us off of the 3 point line is probably a good strategy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufanskip Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Troll patrol alert....Warning this thread may trigger a troll attack. For those wanting to see the Dayton post game analysis...check the "Dayton over the Bills" thread ...post #20... for the game report card. As we pretty much did what we were supposed to do, we remain at D-. Now onto this game...Let's see... VCU beat Duq by 6 and we beat Duq by 9 so we should beat VCU by 3....Well even though it doesn't work that way, it does show that VCU is vulnerable. VCU (A) is not an elite team ( A+ )...they have lost to an A- team (Old Dominion) and been blown out by 2 elite teams (Va & Nova). They are rated 17th in the nation and have won 10 in a row. I would place them in a similar category to Wichita St and Davidson....so we will not see anything more difficult than we have already faced. But we will see something different...at least for this year. While they press and go after the steal (3rd in the nation) they are not that good on D....ie defending shots . There main focus is to run and gun. So here is how we can beat them........ Ideal outcome.... Defense...... Limit them to 65pts FG....42.8% 3 pt....32% 3pt made...limit to 7 TO....13 or more Assists 12 or less Johnson...12pts or less Alie-Cox........4 reb " " Weber.....3 assists " " Offense..... At least 67pts FG....45% 3pt ....35% FT......68% TO's....10 or less Bartley....no foul out (3 times this season) VCU strengths...Steals and fast breaks.... VCU weakness...They don't take care of the ball...all the emphasis is on steals....no one talks about how they are one of the worst in protecting the ball as they are 21st in the nation in TO's. Bottomline... We need to play Billiken ball....slow the tempo down and play D...bother them ...press them some ...go for the steal...no open shots. We need to have a decent night shooting and make some foul shots. If we play our game they can be beaten...if we play their game, we lose. VCU is a good team but they are vulnerable. Go Bills I'd say if we hit our defensive goals you outlined, I could live with 66 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willie Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 This game is a really bad match up game for us. I could see VCU winning by 20+. I am looking forward to this game. I am anxious to see how we handle the pressure. I have a feeling we might play well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Pine Jim Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I am looking forward to this game. I am anxious to see how we handle the pressure. I have a feeling we might play well. Hope you are right, willie ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deutschkind Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Not saying it'll happen, but would there be a more satisfying win from a fan standpoint this year? Beating them in Richmond *would* be more satisfying Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BACKHANDtheRICAN Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Backhand's spread will be ready by tomorrow....just a few more calculations & simulations to perform.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doowop Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 My granddaughter cannot go to the game with me Friday so, I have an extra ticket. If anyone wants it ley me know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pistol Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 My granddaughter cannot go to the game with me Friday so, I have an extra ticket. If anyone wants it ley me know. PM sent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doowop Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 My granddaughter cannot go to the game with me Friday so, I have an extra ticket. If anyone wants it ley me know.The ticket to Friday's game is still available to anyone who wants it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastsidejoe Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Backhand's spread will be ready by tomorrow....just a few more calculations & simulations to perform.... rub a dub dub Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenbill Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Just ran my Excel model using Crystal Ball monte carlo simulation analysis plus latin hypercube across 10,000 runs for Bills-VCU and I concur with TheWiz, Rams by 17. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moytoy12 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 That's why they play the games. I have no misconception of it being a blowout unless we nail 10 3's. I would point out that our HC D has improved by leaps and bounds over the past 10 games and our TO pace is improving. Anyone can beat anyone. What we need to do is run McBroom off the 3 point line all night like we did to Davidson's guys, get a high post established and then go inside to the bigs. Oh, and shoot our average from 3. No one over on VRN is taking this game lightly, of that I can assure you. No road game is easy. Ask Kentucky. You should be worried about us getting our stud sophs Lancona and Agbeko back from injury Friday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 You should be worried about us getting our stud sophs Lancona and Agbeko back from injury Friday. And with Hollander finally over the flu....the Bills could catch VCU by surprise Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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