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SLU Soccer Rankings (week 7)


kwyjibo

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SLU tied Davidson (0-0) and lost to George Mason (3-2)* this week and took some knocks again in the polls. A consensus is forming around 18th. The RPI and more importantly the Adjusted RPI are still in good shape.

Official Adjusted RPI (Oct.12th)--18th (last week 14th)

Official Unadjusted RPI (Oct. 12th)-- 20th

NSCAA (coaches) Poll: 20th (last week 13th)

Soccer America: 18th (last week 8th)

College Soccer News: 18th (last week 13th)

Top Drawer: 21st (last week 16th)

Massey Computer: 25th (16th last week)
Unofficial RPI : 18th (last week 14th)

I should explain about the adjusted RPI as I only learned the details recently. The committee uses both the RPI and AdjRPI in selection but it is clear that the AdjRPI is used pretty straight up. The adjustment includes bonuses for non-=conf top 40 wins/ties and lesser bonuses for wins/ties over 40-80. Their are penalties for losses/ties to non-conf teams 150+ (more for 175+). It is clear that the bonuses help SLU this year 2 places right now. They lost 9 places last year with penalties and only one small bonus (not that their unadjusted RPI was getting them in but I think I posted about their chances last year using the unadjusted number).

Anyway, SLU needs two wins at home this weekend to keep on track. In fact, they would be nearly a lock at that point. However, as they are close to a seeded (home game and bye) bid it would be nice to get as many wins as possible. I can look at this more formally next week or later but I would expect they might be able to get a seed with 5-2-1 finish but probably need to do even better to guarantee it.

*SLU was down 2-0 and had a nice comeback to get to 2-2. Unfortunately, Pavisic was then red-carded and SLU eventually gave up the winning goal late.

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Always appreciate these rankings updates and explanations.

How important could winning the A10 conference tournament be? Say they beat everyone in the regular season except lose @VCU, but then come back and win the A10 Tourney in Richmond. Do you think that's a top 10 seed?

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They need a top 16 seed to get home game and bye. Winning the A-10 is going to be a big plus right now as the A-10 has done a lot better this year and it means a better end of the year record (the "last 10" record is something the committee has for evaluation). I think they would likely be a single digit seed if they go 4-1, 3-0 down the stretch (lower seeds only help with possible future matchups--#16 could meet #1 in 3rd round, but #8 and #9 could meet if they win in 2nd round); in soccer there are always a few hot unseeded teams.

At Dayton looks like the toughest conference game of all (Davidson has a tourney resume right now but are not playing as well the past few weeks and George Mason is playing well with a weaker overall schedule) so there is more than @VCU to worry about (VCU may be out of the at-large hunt when SLU plays them but right now Dayton is on the bubble and needs to keep winning). SLU and Davidson would be in for sure today. George Mason could definitely get to the tournament but basically have to win out because of their relatively weak schedule.

Also, I should have noted above that SLU needs to stay in the top 35 Adjusted RPI to get an-large for sure. There are 48 bids but many of those are used by lesser RPI teams getting automatic bids (with soccer you should expect 8-10 but I say 12 certainly possible with upsets in major conferences).

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