Top 144

[Taj79]

While I don't think the point of this pre-season poll is to predict how the top 144 will end up I can see your point and would not devote a lot of argument to it. But to me, all of it remains just a launching point.

Mississippi State was in no one's Top 25 in football and they're #1 today. Wasn't it two or so years ago Kentucky was #1 and lost first round to Bobby Morris in the NIT? Isn't there some pollster out there who predicts the Yankees and/or the Red Sox are going to be World Champions every February. The same guy can predict Hillary's win November 2016.

[kshoe]

While I don't think the point of this pre-season poll is to predict how the top 144 will end up I can see your point and would not devote a lot of argument to it. But to me, all of it remains just a launching point.

Mississippi State was in no one's Top 25 in football and they're #1 today. Wasn't it two or so years ago Kentucky was #1 and lost first round to Bobby Morris in the NIT? Isn't there some pollster out there who predicts the Yankees and/or the Red Sox are going to be World Champions every February. The same guy can predict Hillary's win November 2016.

If someone can explain what the point of a preseason poll is other than the predict/guess at how the season will end up then I am all ears. To me that is exactly what a pre-season poll is all about. Doesn't mean they are accurate, but it is what they are trying to do.

[TheA_Bomb]

If someone can explain what the point of a preseason poll is other than the predict/guess at how the season will end up then I am all ears. To me that is exactly what a pre-season poll is all about. Doesn't mean they are accurate, but it is what they are trying to do.

If it's not a prediction then it must be based on how we ended the season so we should be in the top 32.

Yeah pre-season poll is a guess of how the season will shake out not a guess of how week one will shake out. The pre-season College Football Polls is a guess at how the season will end but then is adjusted per subjective assessment of the teams performance without regard to future performance. Now if you want to argue that polls shouldn't start until week 4 that's another discussion. This is all about entertainment and people love to talk polls look at us discussing this nobodies top 144 list for months.

[Taj79]

Is a scouting report a prediction? I think the bloggers and mag/rags just to it to stir up discussion and interest. A filling of the entertainment options. Any of them could be completely wrong or close to correct but that would be all I'd take them for. Many of you point out just how foolish guys like Welser and Norlander are/willbe. In that respect, they are doing what I think their intent is.

As for doing this based on how we finished in 2014, we lost five senior starters. This edition of the team is obviously not last years team.None ever really are. You look at the ingredients and say it's either gourmet or just a common salad. Then you play the games. I agree ----- no poll should start until somebody of work is completed. Four weeks. Eight weeks. Halfway done. Those are obviously better polls/predictions because they are based on results. When the Browns demolished the Steelers two weeks ago, folks had then rushing out to 6 and2. Then they went to Jacksonville. Jacksonville?!?!?! Do-do happens.

[cheeseman]

To me its more like green apples and red apples. The point of a pre-season poll is to predict how the top 144 would look at the end of the the season. It seems illogical for someone to say that they don't think we should be in the top 144 pre-season but anticipate that at the end of the year after all the games are played we'd be in the top 144.

The whole point of looking at those really bad seasons in SLU history and realizing that even in those years we ended around 144 was to show that for anyone to make the statement that we don't belong in the top 144 is actually them making a statement that we are going to be really bad. I don't think we are going to be particularly good, but I sure don't think this team is going to be historically bad.

I never said we would be in the top 144 at the end of the season. I have no idea where we will end up. All I have ever said is we would be in the top 144 poll that was down now. Based on who we lost and what we had returning along with the perception that would create to an outsider it made sense that we would not be on that list.

[VeniceMenace]

This is about as real as it gets, assessment of each A-10 team from various A-10 assistants...what they say sounds a lot like what many posters have said--too much unknown due to roster turnover, lots of new players:

http://cityofbasketballlove.com/2014/10/coaches-thoughts-atlantic-10-conference/

[slu72]

This is about as real as it gets, assessment of each A-10 team from various A-10 assistants...what they say sounds a lot like what many posters have said--too much unknown due to roster turnover, lots of new players:

http://cityofbasketballlove.com/2014/10/coaches-thoughts-atlantic-10-conference/

JC's care taking days are over. He'll have to earn his paycheck this season. Many ups and downs this year.

[cheeseman]

JC's care taking days are over. He'll have to earn his paycheck this season. Many ups and downs this year.

+1

[Clock_Tower]

I find it funny that so many of the recruiting "experts" assume roster turnover = bad team. Why can't these "experts" realize that our 3 star kids plus Ash might actually be able to play ball? In short, we have 6 new Frosh (whom they should be able to evaluate) plus last year's 3 Frosh (who now have a year's worth of growth and experience under their belts) along with Ash, JM, AM and GG. If Ash and only 2 of the youngsters (our 6 Frosh and 3 Sophs) step up for us this year with some of the rest filling roles, then a winning season and Top 144 finish looks certain and another NCAA Tourney looks possible.

[cheeseman]

I find it funny that so many of the recruiting "experts" assume roster turnover = bad team. Why can't these "experts" realize that our 3 star kids plus Ash might actually be able to play ball? In short, we have 6 new Frosh (whom they should be able to evaluate) plus last year's 3 Frosh (who now have a year's worth of growth and experience under their belts) along with Ash, JM, AM and GG. If Ash and only 2 of the youngsters (our 6 Frosh and 3 Sophs) step up for us this year with some of the rest filling roles, then a winning season and Top 144 finish looks certain and another NCAA Tourney looks possible.

3 star freshmen still have an adjustment period to NCAA D1 basketball. They are not Larry Hughes type players. I would agree that they will grow this year and be much better as sophomores

[Clock_Tower]

3 star freshmen still have an adjustment period to NCAA D1 basketball. They are not Larry Hughes type players. I would agree that they will grow this year and be much better as sophomores

Yes, but our 3 Sophs have had an entire year of experience, have been well coached by JC and staff and are ready to take over now that our 5 Seniors have graduated.. Ash has played 2 years of college ball and is now starting his 4th year post-high school, If these 4 guys step up like 3 start recruits do, then we won't need much from the 6th Frosh to make the Top 144. And BTW, the odds of at least 1 of the 6 Frosh being able to step up and contribute are not all that remote.

[Taj79]

Mods can lock and close this thread ...... VCU comes in as the top A10 team (surprise!) and gets the #18 overall ranking. You were close larry72. End of discussion.

[slu72]

Mods can lock and close this thread ...... VCU comes in as the top A10 team (surprise!) and gets the #18 overall ranking. You were close larry72. End of discussion.

Just goes to show this guy don't know squat.

[ACE]

Mods can lock and close this thread ...... VCU comes in as the top A10 team (surprise!) and gets the #18 overall ranking. You were close larry72. End of discussion.

I think some folks will want to revisit this thread in March.

[cheeseman]

Yes, but our 3 Sophs have had an entire year of experience, have been well coached by JC and staff and are ready to take over now that our 5 Seniors have graduated.. Ash has played 2 years of college ball and is now starting his 4th year post-high school, If these 4 guys step up like 3 start recruits do, then we won't need much from the 6th Frosh to make the Top 144. And BTW, the odds of at least 1 of the 6 Frosh being able to step up and contribute are not all that remote.

I have no problem accepting that our Sophomores will be better than they were as freshmen - in fact in another thread I posted that I had heard from a reliable person at SLU that TL has shown big improvement. I also stated that I was told that Ash was our best player last year even though he could not play. Now all that being said, is that enough to carry us without the freshmen having to make large contributions - probably not. My point simply was to be counting on the freshmen to play well enough to make us a NCAA team is just not reasonable.

[slu72]

All the planets and stars would have to align perfectly for this year's team to make the NCAA. Either that or we don't know squat how to judge D1 talent. The consternation comes from the fact that our SO's showed very little as FR. Granted some of that was due to injuries, especially RA, since JC actually started him last year. I think we'd all be breathing a little easier had all 3 played a larger role on last year's team. Not a major role just a larger one. For example, had MC been the go to guy to take a lot more of JB's minutes, or been able to give JJ more breathers. TL taking just 5-10 mpg from DE. RA was injured, so he gets a pass. We faded last year due to our 5 SR's being physically banged up and exhausted. Credit to them for trying to tough it out, but had their bodies been up to the task, we likely wouldn't have lost to DU and UD at home or St.B's in round one of the tourney. JC had to know the state of the team at the start of the conference schedule and had to know the 5 seniors would be gassed at the end unless they got some help. But he was dealing with too big a gap in our classes, only one SO (McB), two so so JR's, and 3 untested FR, to provide the SR's some relief. If CR had been redshirted his FR year, that would have helped big time. Also, if we'd kept that Carter kid in the fold.

I'm hoping all these glowing, albeit rumored, reports about TL and MC making huge strides, and that Ash was indeed our best practice player last year, and that RA is really a beast when not injured. But the proof's in the pudding and the pudding will be served in the near future. Go Bills, shock us and make us believers.

[kshoe]

You can drive about 80 teams between an NCAA appearance and the top 144 list. I'm with Ace, this thread should stay open so we can revisit in March.

Its highly unlikely this team finishes below 144 in any computer ranking.

[Clock_Tower]

I have no problem accepting that our Sophomores will be better than they were as freshmen - in fact in another thread I posted that I had heard from a reliable person at SLU that TL has shown big improvement. I also stated that I was told that Ash was our best player last year even though he could not play. Now all that being said, is that enough to carry us without the freshmen having to make large contributions - probably not. My point simply was to be counting on the freshmen to play well enough to make us a NCAA team is just not reasonable.

Agree in part. The drive by prognostications lazy reporting segments don't work well for a team like SLU. It is easy (easier) to look at what a team has returning, to add to the mix a good/bad recruiting class, to note whether a coaching or other big change has occurred and to look at the recent past in making a prediction. It is difficult for a situation like SLU where there really is not much returning. Still, if these authors are half the "experts" they claim to be, then I'd suggest that they should do a little extra work to evaluate the small handful of teams like SLU and/or to give programs like ours the benefit of the doubt. For instance, to assume that SLU will be bad (not in the Top 144) is rather insulting and/or the sign of someone who has no clue. 3 straight NCAA Tourneys, Coach of the Year, back to back rather impressive recruiting years, rather impressive transfer ready to play... Where's the benefit of the doubt? Ken Pom has us drop from Top 25 to 80. Even top 100 would seem reasonable. But no benefit of the doubt at all? These same standards are obviously not used for a program like Kentucky (benefit of the doubt is made for them) where the assumption is that they will be good (and I am not disagreeing) based on the super high quality of their new recruits. Top 10 or 20 for them and we cannot even make the Top 144?

For instance, I respect all the research previously performed by WH but even he greatly underestimated how good our team would be following the Incident. That year, we had the benefit of having watched KM his Frosh year and knew hew was coming back to rejoin Juniors Conklin (injured much of his Soph year) and Ellis (injured shoulder and mono) and to play with the Sophs who were forced into action before they were ready (DE, JJ, MM and RL). At least we watched them, knew they were good, knew they would get better and we trusted in RM. To us, making the NCAA was not a surprise. To WH and others, it was a surprise.

This year, we don't have the benefit of having watched our 3 Sophs play meaningful minutes last year (due to injury and the depth of last year's Seniors). But Cheese, I disagree that we will need all that many meaningful minutes from our Frosh to be successful this year as we did the year of the Situation. This year, we have Ash, JM and AM which played quite abit and GG who played some. Add to this mix our 3 Sophs, who if healthy and with a year under their belts, should really find success now that they will be given a chance. In short, that's 7 guys with prior experience in our system (JM, GG and AM each with 3 years, AM with 2 years if you count his redshirt year and Ash, TL, RA and MC with 1 year if you count Ash's redshirt's year), Now, if some of the Frosh also step in and contribute, then that will mean that either the previously listed 7 veterans are not good enough/ready or that some/all of the incoming 6 Frosh are really that good. So unlike the Situation year (which Shoe points out that we were still 150 or so) when we had no choice but to play the Frosh (no Seniors and injured/sick veterans), we do have choices this year. Therefore, if GG and AM don't improve like some hope, if Ash is not as good as advertised, if JM remains the JM we have watched for 3 years and/or if the 3 Sophs don't improve enough, then and only then will we need to the 6 Frosh to take over like last year's Seniors had to do. And even then, we were 150!!

Sorry, but I think 18 to 21 wins is realistic. Anything short of that and I will be disappointed.

[Taj79]

I look forward to the revisit. I will truly be disappointed if we are not in the final 144. While I originally stated I didn't think we'd make this opening list, then waivered some, this was not what I'm expecting as the year progresses PROVIDED the sophomores come through, Ash is a shadow of a real deal, and the freshmen are all worthy. Schools like us don't really reload ala the Dukes and Kentuckys of the world. Our fate depends on progressive turnover .... the seniors graduate, the juniors and sophomores move up, and a nice freshman class develops some of the same continuity. Sustainability was the word.

As it stands, our seniors ain't, well, that great. Maybe the dawning of dual "Conklin summers" will rise. Our juniors consist of a limited one/two guard and a rusty transfer. Our sophomores are an open jury. And we have one of if not the largest freshman class in recent history who WILL be counted on to do much, much more than last year's freshman class. Add to that the fact that the Majerus factor is all but gone. Jim Crews stands alone on the bridge.

I am excited and can't wait. There is so much to see, watch and develop. Unlike Clock, 18 wins would knock my socks off. Any postseason, even down to the collegeinsider tourney would be wonderful for such a young team thinking that the more they play, the better the future will be.

Frankly, I haven't been this excited over such uncertainty since Majerus' first class.

[brownwolves]

the Bonnies win the game, the Bonnies win the game, the Bonnies win the game, Jorden Gathers hits the 3 point shot and wins the game for the St Bonaventure Brown Indians!!!

In this League, when it gets to the play-offs, all teams are equal.

See you in March at the 'Fetz.

[slu72]

the Bonnies win the game, the Bonnies win the game, the Bonnies win the game, Jorden Gathers hits the 3 point shot and wins the game for the St Bonaventure Brown Indians!!!

In this League, when it gets to the play-offs, all teams are equal.

See you in March at the 'Fetz.

Jeez, this post in this thread makes about as much sense as Hillary saying American businesses don't create jobs.

[Clock_Tower]

I look forward to the revisit. I will truly be disappointed if we are not in the final 144. While I originally stated I didn't think we'd make this opening list, then waivered some, this was not what I'm expecting as the year progresses PROVIDED the sophomores come through, Ash is a shadow of a real deal, and the freshmen are all worthy. Schools like us don't really reload ala the Dukes and Kentuckys of the world. Our fate depends on progressive turnover .... the seniors graduate, the juniors and sophomores move up, and a nice freshman class develops some of the same continuity. Sustainability was the word.

As it stands, our seniors ain't, well, that great. Maybe the dawning of dual "Conklin summers" will rise. Our juniors consist of a limited one/two guard and a rusty transfer. Our sophomores are an open jury. And we have one of if not the largest freshman class in recent history who WILL be counted on to do much, much more than last year's freshman class. Add to that the fact that the Majerus factor is all but gone. Jim Crews stands alone on the bridge.

I am excited and can't wait. There is so much to see, watch and develop. Unlike Clock, 18 wins would knock my socks off. Any poastseason, even down to the collegeinsider tourney would be wonderful for such a young team thinking that the more they play, the better the future will be.

Frankly, I haven't been this excited over such uncertainty since Majerus' first class.

Taj. Again, can't really disagree with your thoughts. Instead, this really comes down to each of us having either an optimistic or a pessimistic short-term view of the extremely limited body of work available. In short, there is very little I can truly point to with regard to our Seniors (who haven't been that great), to AM (who struggled during the A10 conference), to Ash (whom I have never seen play) and to the Sophs (who sure didn't take many minutes away from the veterans last year) to say that this will be a break out year for each of them. At the same time, to assume that b/c JM did not beat out RL that JM cannot produce this (his Senior) year in RL's absence, is also wrong. Same can be said with the others.

And yes, JC is definitely under the spotlight and the RM era is, in fact, over. JC is not to blame if JM, AM and GG turn out not so good. At the same time, if our Sophs turn out to be not that good and/or if our 6 Frosh turn out to be rather ordinary class, then all fault does lie upon JC. Sorry, but I have seen how even SLU can recruit quality kids year after year and make the Tourney 3 years in a row so an 18 win season does NOT knock my socks off. Instead, it disappoints me.

[Taj79]

Clock -- you are making an assumption statement I never made and really don't believe in -- that because JM did not beat out RL he cannot produce his senior year. I never said nor expected JM to do such a thing nor correlate that into a pass/fail for his senior year -- I only expect incremental improvement over time and increased minutes and production as a result of such improvement. Advancing to a postive mark on the sustainability scorecard.

Using points per game as only an example, JM has gone from 0.5 to 1.7 to 2.5 in his three years here. GG has gone 0.2 to 3.1 to 3.8 (again just a random selection as an illustration) over that same time. And as a scaling reference, Brian Conklin posted these numbers over his career: 6.1 to 6.2 to 8.7 to 13.9 in the ppg arena. I didn't expect JM to replace RL but I expected a wholelot more for a seven foot guy in a big-man light league.

How about this stat fact: Conklin scored 195 points total in his first year at SLU. And Conklin was by no means perceived as an incoming savior as neither were Jm or GG. To date Manning has scored 130 and Glaze 209. I know there are different circumstances that don't make any straight up comparison like this 100% valid but it is what it is. The biggest disappointment I see is that neither player seems tohave developed just yet --- but their senior season is nigh.

Stu's article on Grandy today tells me GG won't be a big scorer anyway even this year (which makes it hard for me to believe that this team will be better offensively than last year) so judging the kid on that is likely unfair. Grandy appears to be a "glue guy" ---inspiring with defense, rebounding and enthusiasm/energy (why does enthusiasm/energy remind me of the old line "she's got a great personality" when askign about who you are fixing me up with). Every team needs that. But that willpalce even more emphasis for scoring on parts still unknown.

Can't wait.

[VeniceMenace]

Speaking of WH's annual A-10 predictions, has anyone seen them yet for the coming season?

[cheeseman]

Agree in part. The drive by prognostications lazy reporting segments don't work well for a team like SLU. It is easy (easier) to look at what a team has returning, to add to the mix a good/bad recruiting class, to note whether a coaching or other big change has occurred and to look at the recent past in making a prediction. It is difficult for a situation like SLU where there really is not much returning. Still, if these authors are half the "experts" they claim to be, then I'd suggest that they should do a little extra work to evaluate the small handful of teams like SLU and/or to give programs like ours the benefit of the doubt. For instance, to assume that SLU will be bad (not in the Top 144) is rather insulting and/or the sign of someone who has no clue. 3 straight NCAA Tourneys, Coach of the Year, back to back rather impressive recruiting years, rather impressive transfer ready to play... Where's the benefit of the doubt? Ken Pom has us drop from Top 25 to 80. Even top 100 would seem reasonable. But no benefit of the doubt at all? These same standards are obviously not used for a program like Kentucky (benefit of the doubt is made for them) where the assumption is that they will be good (and I am not disagreeing) based on the super high quality of their new recruits. Top 10 or 20 for them and we cannot even make the Top 144?

For instance, I respect all the research previously performed by WH but even he greatly underestimated how good our team would be following the Incident. That year, we had the benefit of having watched KM his Frosh year and knew hew was coming back to rejoin Juniors Conklin (injured much of his Soph year) and Ellis (injured shoulder and mono) and to play with the Sophs who were forced into action before they were ready (DE, JJ, MM and RL). At least we watched them, knew they were good, knew they would get better and we trusted in RM. To us, making the NCAA was not a surprise. To WH and others, it was a surprise.

This year, we don't have the benefit of having watched our 3 Sophs play meaningful minutes last year (due to injury and the depth of last year's Seniors). But Cheese, I disagree that we will need all that many meaningful minutes from our Frosh to be successful this year as we did the year of the Situation. This year, we have Ash, JM and AM which played quite abit and GG who played some. Add to this mix our 3 Sophs, who if healthy and with a year under their belts, should really find success now that they will be given a chance. In short, that's 7 guys with prior experience in our system (JM, GG and AM each with 3 years, AM with 2 years if you count his redshirt year and Ash, TL, RA and MC with 1 year if you count Ash's redshirt's year), Now, if some of the Frosh also step in and contribute, then that will mean that either the previously listed 7 veterans are not good enough/ready or that some/all of the incoming 6 Frosh are really that good. So unlike the Situation year (which Shoe points out that we were still 150 or so) when we had no choice but to play the Frosh (no Seniors and injured/sick veterans), we do have choices this year. Therefore, if GG and AM don't improve like some hope, if Ash is not as good as advertised, if JM remains the JM we have watched for 3 years and/or if the 3 Sophs don't improve enough, then and only then will we need to the 6 Frosh to take over like last year's Seniors had to do. And even then, we were 150!!

Sorry, but I think 18 to 21 wins is realistic. Anything short of that and I will be disappointed.

Well I hope you are not disappointed but 18-21 wins does not get you in the Dance. So, without a big contributions from our freshmen we clearly do not make the tourny. I get your line of thought but I need to see the sophomores actually play more improved - doable and before I am willing to say we have had "impressive" recruiting years is a bit premature - lets let the players prove that on the court without handing them that distinction.