Maybe UB knows something

[slu72]

we don't. The point of this thread is about AD, and how a lot of us are thinking we're in the toilet if he gets a lot of mpg this year. Count me among those. However, maybe we are wrong. In the recent NBA edition of SI, I read where a lot of NBA teams are employing a "moneyball system to evaluate a player's effectiveness or productivity. Quick example, compare two NBA players: Michael Redd, Bucks, and Jason Collins, Net's center. Redd has gaudy stats, 23ppg, Collins does not, 5.6ppg, 4 rbg. However, when Redd is on the floor his team loses an avg of 2 pts to their opponents because of his lousy defense. Whereas in Collins case, the nets gain more pts than their opponents when he is on the floor. The formulas are way too complex for my burned out brain to comprehend, so I won't even try. But the point is it will be interesting to watch this year to see when AD is on the floor if we are gaining or losing on our opponents. Guess a simplified example would be something like, AD is inserted into the game and we are behind by 8, he gets replaced we are now down by only 4. He's a plus 4. Maybe, , UB has this all figured out in his head and that is why a player like Ahern was not recruited. Yeah, he gives you points from the 3 and the ft line, but maybe when he's in there the team goes into the negative (turn the AD example around). Don't know if this is the case, but for any of you techies or stat freaks out there it might be interesting to anyalyze what are our best combos on the floor this year. If AD provides "plus" time then by all means play him as long as someone else is not providing more "plus" time.

[cheeseman]

72 - there are several problems with your premise: 1. There are two approaches to winning games - you can try to play good defense and put your scorers out there who fit the criteria and win by scoring in the 70s, the other is to put your best defensive people out there and hope you can hold them to less points then you somehow eke out - games in the 50s. 2. We did the latter last year and look what it got us. We did not start playing better ball until Brad started playing more of his younger bench players who had a bigger upside for scoring. 3. If AD is the AD we saw last year, then how can you say he should play over KL or TL or DP or DB. They will play adequate defense but have more of a scoring upside. I know DP did not score much last year but he was playing with a weak offensive group - once the younger bench players started playing, you saw DP's scoring pick up some. 4. Now if AD spent the summer improving his scoring and overall play then maybe your point could be correct but we won't know that until the season starts and we see him play in a few games. 5. Now I understand that Brad is talking about a 4 guard approach but most everybody on this board has not supported that as the main scheme for all the obvious reasons. But, if he goes with a 4 guard strategy then AD does have a place.

Until we see the team play, I am having trouble supporting playing plodders over race horses.

[billiken_roy]

with how much better liddell is offensively than the entire team and how much better lisch is allround than the rest of the team, any fears of drejaj playing imo is just unfounded. heck i havent even talked about polk and brown. i really cant see him getting significant minutes unless lisch and liddell are in foul trouble, other than a couple of polk rest breaks.

i think drejaj will get 10-12 minutes a game unless injury or fouls allow more. and imo this might allow drejaj to be even more effective as if he knows his time is that limited, he can play that much more agressive.

[slu72]

I wasn't promoting playing time for AD. UB said he was a penciled in as starter for now. All I was trying to say was maybe, and I don't know this, that UB has figured when he's on the court, we are on the positive side of things, which sould be primarily because of his D. I don't know if this is how the staff looks at stats or not. Again, the point was the obvious stats don't always tell the story. But it's interesting to note in the Ahern debate it's always that despite his ability to score, he'd be a negative because of his defense, ala Michael Redden. Assume for a moment, DP is a negative factor on the court, scores but can't defend, so we lose when he plays. Now I'm not saying DP is or isn't a negative. I don't know. But why did UB insist on giving major minutes to AD last year instead of DB or LM, who appear to have way more upside, and then call him a starter this year. The man's got to be looking at something we're not.

[Cowboy]

When UB introduced AD at Billiken Madness and called him the first player/coach in SLU history, imo that is a huge statement as to UB's committment to AD.

I do indeed like this concept of gain/loss in scoring differential per player, but the level of analysis may need to be combinations on the floor. But if someone is playing and scoring 20 points and the player they are defending is scoring 30 points in the same time, how is this not a negative?

[billiken_roy]

well i think what you are saying is that drejaj's intangibles out weigh his bad shot.

there is no denying that drejaj always leaves it all on the floor. or at least more than just about anyone else. plus you can see he drives the opposition crazy. what is that value? before when we had less talented other players that might have flown. in fact, i bought into that completely. but now the other factors that the much more talented danny brown, kevin lisch and tommie liddell bring to the floor make that harder to defend.

[Major Majerus]

I don't want to rain on your parade, but I've been to 2 practices and have seen the same drill twice now - 2 on 2 with a big and a small. Both times, KL and AD were paired. Drejah's strength in a 1 on 1 situation is amazing to behold. As hard as Kevin works, he can't stop AD on offense, he can't get a rebound, and AD takes him right into the basket. Conversely, the only shot he can get off against AD is a fall away JS. AD gets most of the rebounds. When you watch that drill, you say "Whaaaa?" Of course, there are no fouls called in this drill. BTW, Bryce and JJ do really well in this drill.

[Billikenbooster]

UB didn't say he was pencilled in as a starter 'for now'. He said that at a Tip Off Club meeting based on how they were shooting the day before. That was 6w ago.

He may rotate the starters to see who does better when, depending on match ups with what the other team has, who is looking good recently in practice, etc.

We know after this long with Brad, starters are not as important as minutes, and end of the game.

mhg

[slu72]

well, that maybe where his value lies, which we've all thought is the case, but we want, and UB says he's giving it to us this year, is a team that runs and scores in transition. How does AD fit in????. It ain't like he's the quickest cat on the floor. But if we are on the positive end of things when he's in there, ie we take the lead or gain on a deficit, the kid's got to play...I guess. From Unca's observations about practice and Broy's constant praise for KL's skills, AD's must be one of the better defenders, if not one of the more tenacious, in the A-10. Is this fair, guess only time will tell. Like to see him go against the Temple PG. Say in a game like that he scores 6 pts and holds the Temple PG, who averages around 15 I think, to 6 pts. That's a plus.

[Cowboy]

Broy, in talking about this statistic on gain/loss point measurement, if indeed that is what the coaching staff is doing, how is this an intangible? If the lead goes up or the deficit is cut that seems very tangible. Maybe it is a measure of intangibles a player brings. Of course this is all speculation, but again I say this sort of statistic makes sense to me as PART of overall player evaluation.

[Taj79]

.. if Brad Soderberg is one thing ... its loyal to his seniors. Or so it seems. I think a key thing to remember is that AD was one of those "diamonds in the rough" that Brad uncovered when he was suddenly thrust into the spotlight with the program. And I think to a man we'd all agree as some note that AD leaves more of it on the floor each and every night. The statement that he is the first Billiken player-coach (or whatever he said) speaks volumes. Might I offer that he might be the Billiken-scaled down version of guys like Steve Wojiciewski of Duke, Terrel Stokes of Maryland, Josh Whathisname at Arizona, and even the mighty Quinn Snyder of Duke ... guys who have a much greater chance of coaching as their next level as opposed to playing at the next level.

I think the whole thing will be situational. Once the pregame intros are over and who is playing when the game is on the line, that's who you know Coach has the confidence in. Maybe Brad is a decendent from the Joe Paterno coaching tree .... it took Joe to this year to actually play freshmen to the extent that he is. And changing his style from a pre-domiannt run-oriented/play defense group to an open it up style. Brad has said on many occasions that when he has the horses, he'll let them run. And in a "what have you done for me lately" collegiate world, he is going to go with what gives him the best chance of winning. I would.

I'd also like to point out something that struck a cord in this thread ... something about DP not having the horses to finish with. I believe I asked that question last year ... who was DP going to pass to and have score .... when we were all gushing about this tremendous talent coming into SLU. I cautioned that there was a double whammy to watch out for ... no finishers and a frosh PG. Nine wins was horrible ... but us old timers have two 5 win seasons (Grawer's first and last) to look back fondly on.

I think Brad has no real choice right now but to run with AD ... at least through the pre-conference season. The experience has to be gained by then. If not, I'd be of the mind to cut bait with the upperclassmen and move on to develop the underclassmen.

[slufanskip]

What I heard Brad say was right now his starters would be IV, DP, KL, and TL. The fifth spot was open. When asked about playing 4 guards ... he said he might at times ... when pressed for he would be the 4th guard then he said as of now it would probably be AD.

Official Billikens.com sponsor of H. Waldman

[Major Majerus]

One thing AD gets is steals. He may not be the guy to then take it to the hole, but we now have other guys ready to fly. I suspect a lot of playing time for him, and I want him to deserve it. I'll defer to Brad for that evaluation...(what other choice do we have?)

[willie]

I was at practice on Sat. where a full refereed scrimage was held. I thought Kevin's defense was spectacular. For the most part he was matched up on Tommie. Tommie had a hard time scoring and could only get long jump shots.{which he didn't shoot very well} Whenever Dreja guarded Tommie,Tommie took him to the hole and scored immediately. Kevin shot the ball very well makeing almost every open shot he took .One practice does not a season make but I was very impressed. Ian was dominate and I liked Husack. I think Husack he will be a very good backup center. He scored very will with little hooks when he got the ball on the low post.

[slu72]

Let's see. AD stops KL, KL stops TL, AD can't stop TL, KL stops AD...very confusing picture. Sounds as though KL is our best defender. Does TL stop anyone?

[willie]

tl stops db

[BillikenBurg]

10-12 minutes? haha please, i garauntee drejaj ends up getting 25 mpg minimum

[slufanskip]

and DB stops LM

Official Billikens.com sponsor of H. Waldman

[Major Majerus]

And Bryce does very well on these 2 on 2 drills against Ian. The drill doesn't stop for a pair until someone scores, and either side can put back a shot. The Big Man's Camp and Hammer Bodies has really made a difference in his game; he goes right back up on his misses, and is comfortable with the ball. Last year, we had the ludicrous sight of him roaming the perimeter trying to screen guys smaller and more agile than he. Now it's hard to hold him out of the paint, and he's using the new strength and those long, long arms to advantage. Is there any poster who HAS seen the new Bryce who thinks I'm off base?

[Major Majerus]

At the moment, it looks like at least 20 for me. Of course, LM gets none at the moment. It's still evolving.

[Tonka]

AD has frustrated the heck out of me the past few years, but when I look at things and think about what AD brings I can't help but think he is nothing more than a situational player. That is not a bad thing. That is a great thing. I think AD actually performs better off the bench. Yes, he started and had good games, but I think he often can spark a team off the bench. I always thought Sloan was the same way. I always felt Chris was best when he was off the bench. Brad always said it didn't matter who started because that was no indication of the minutes a player would get. I do think it does matter though to a lot of players. I think starting often creates a mindset. Even if Brad doesn't mean it to. I think often a player thinks they have to shoulder the load if they start and often try and do too much. I think AD falls into that category. I often see hime trying to do too much and thus we are forced to watch his awful shot.

My best memories of AD are when he came in a game and played smash mouth defense and then would get some unexpected points that gave us a spark. I would like him in that role again this year. Just my thoughts.

[Sheltiedave]

Wow, someone thinks two-on-two drills mean much?(small sarcasm.)

AD's strength(literally) is playing physical, belly to belly defense. In a game, he normally plays off the guard and cheats to the passing lane, which leaves him vulnerable to backdoor cuts, and to either step back or screened three point shooters.

AD will never have the wheels to go navel to navel defense, so his forte should be 10 to 15 minutes a game trying to pulverize other guards into exhaustion. He has a strong work ethic, but nowhere near the abilities or drive former senior guards brought to the table(JF comes to mind.)

[tseugnekillib]

imo, systems don't win or lose games....it's all players making plays!

In the 2003-4 season the Bills averaged 62.7 pts per game and won 19 games.

In the 2004-5 season the Bills averaged 56.4 pts per game and won only

9 games. Six less points per game meant 10 more loses!

It's all about players making plays at key moments in the game! Players like Marque Perry making key,last second buckets against Louisville and DePaul, players scoring like the 2003-4 version of Reggie Bryant, an Albert Pujols timely blast, a critical/difficult tag by Molina, a diving catch by Edmonds, a quality squeeze bunt, etc., etc.

In the 2004-5 season (9-21), particularly early-on, players were not making critical plays/shots. In 2003-4, the Bills proved you don't have to score in the 70's to win 19 games. But you have to score at the critical moment.....it's all about "players making plays"!

Who in 2005-6 will be the "players making plays"?

[Major Majerus]

Well, I just go to practice sometimes; I have no input on what drills UB runs. He's run the same drill twice, for extended periods. There must be a point, and I've reported on the results of those drills. Is your point that UB is running meaningless drills, or is it that my reporting of the results is meaningless? Perhaps the practices are ultimately meaningless, and it's only what is produced at games that counts. I'm surprised you choose to read such meaningless reports...

[GATEWAY1]

DID U KNOW ??????

DREJAJ had elbow surgery this past summer to remocve about 5 pieces of chipped bones that he had in his elbow.