VCU over the Bills by 1

[The Wiz]

For now we have the same team....in the future we have S2

I am going with now  because S2 hasn't seemed to hurt our current play which is a tribute to Ford and the team.

The good news is that we have moved up to C+.  VCU comes in at B-...that is why this should  be a very close game.  And for those following my trend line (based on the last 6 games) we are a 3 pt favorite.  Assuming no major lineup changes these lines will come together in the next 4 games. The spread between these 2 lines will be important in this game and the Dayton game because the numbers are so close.

In looking at the report card , you will see that on offense VCU is nearly a perfect B- team...BUT there is also a flaw in the VCU report card....Let's take a look...

 

 

....................STL...............OFF.............VCU.....................................SLU....................DEF..................VCU

PPG..............F.......................................B ........................................A-.................................................D+

FG%.............D-......................................C+ .......................................B-................................................D-

3P%.............F........................................B-........................................C-.................................................C-

FT%.............F+.....................................B-..................................................................................................

Reb............C-.......................................B-........................................B+..................................................C

Top performers in the nation

Steals... Goodwin....31st

Blks.......French........59th

Assts.....Williams.....27th

Rebs......Tillman........30th

 

So the VCU flaw is their D.....They will let us shoot especially inside the arc...As in past years , they care more about scoring than D.  Also Mr VCU is Tillman...He leads the team in scoring, rebs,  blks and FG%.

Bottom line ....Tempo is the secret to this game ....keep them below 70 pts...slow things down ....play Billiken ball.  Another factor, ...stop Tillman...hold him to 14 pts and 7 reb. A new slash line ...since we are now C+ ...I have moved our slash up to reflect our new grade... 45/35/ 72. If we make this slash we should win because of our superior D.  Speaking of D  we need to beat them on the boards and TOs. This game is very winnable ( especially using the trend line  where we are favored)  as long as we make some shots (including FTs) and slow the game down.  Play Bills ball.

 

[Quality Is Job 1]

Does VCU still use that constant, aggressive full-court trapping defense that Shaka Smart had his hand in and some of his former associates continued to utilize, or have they become a little more "traditional"?

[almaman]

Can't bring yourself to use the H word? He found none vs West Virginia yesterday.

[Quality Is Job 1]

11 minutes ago, almaman said:

Can't bring yourself to use the H word? He found none vs West Virginia yesterday.

Ooh, that must've been a clash!

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, Quality Is Job 1 said:

Does VCU still use that constant, aggressive full-court trapping defense that Shaka Smart had his hand in and some of his former associates continued to utilize, or have they become a little more "traditional"?

The stat I use is opp TOs.....In past years VCU was always an A rated team even finishing as high as top 10 ....This year not so much.....C rated.

Btw... W. Va  is #2 in the nation in opp TOs

[Quality Is Job 1]

19 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

The stat I use is opp TOs.....In past years VCU was always an A rated team even finishing as high as top 10 ....This year not so much.....C rated.

Btw... W. Va  is #2 in the nation in opp TOs

Okay.  Thanks.

As for the second note, I can see that.  I still recall how they carved up Mizzou's guards to storm back to win.

[David King]

In this game, the Bills get the nod for intangibles. Right now, the turmoil of S2 is motivating the team to play better. SLU will kick VCU's ass!

[TheOne]

42 minutes ago, David King said:

In this game, the Bills get the nod for intangibles. Right now, the turmoil of S2 is motivating the team to play better. SLU will kick VCU's ass!

Would love to win this game by 10+ and make a statement.  

[billikenbill]

Keep French and JGood out of foul trouble and we win. A bunch of ticky tack fouls against them and probably not.

[billiken_roy]

22 minutes ago, billikenbill said:

Keep French and JGood out of foul trouble and we win. A bunch of ticky tack fouls against them and probably not.

Glad to see you have come around on Goodwin even though his Billiken career likely about over

[billikenbill]

1 hour ago, billiken_roy said:

Glad to see you have come around on Goodwin even though his Billiken career likely about over

Beast mode the last three games. You can just see how much more confident he is on the floor than even a month ago. Gonna be a stud at whatever level he winds up at, B1G, or SEC.

[David King]

6 hours ago, billikenbill said:

Beast mode the last three games. You can just see how much more confident he is on the floor than even a month ago. Gonna be a stud at whatever level he winds up at, B1G, or SEC.

I predict Goodwin stays at SLU

[Old guy]

The guy I see is playing below his usual way is Jalen Johnson, Goodwin is playing like he does not have a care in the world and is giving his all to the game. Not the same for Jalen Johnson. 

[gobillsgo]

Just now, Old guy said:

The guy I see is playing below his usual way is Jalen Johnson, Goodwin is playing like he does not have a care in the world and is giving his all to the game. Not the same for Jalen Johnson. 

Old guy, I know you aren't really accusing JJ, but the last thing we need is more speculation on who is involved.  It will all become apparent sooner than later, I'd imagine. In the meantime, let's not drag anyone else in who isn't involved.

[Old guy]

I am just saying what I see. 

[TheOne]

9 hours ago, billikenbill said:

Beast mode the last three games. You can just see how much more confident he is on the floor than even a month ago. Gonna be a stud at whatever level he winds up at, B1G, or SEC.

If the school makes the punishment even reasonable, he will stay.  He genuinely wants to be at SLU.  He knows he is the gel that is holding this team together, and he also recognizes that its his name that got SLU back on the map and got the ball rolling in terms of local recruits starting to stay home to represent StL.

[TheOne]

32 minutes ago, Old guy said:

The guy I see is playing below his usual way is Jalen Johnson, Goodwin is playing like he does not have a care in the world and is giving his all to the game. Not the same for Jalen Johnson. 

Breaking news - Jalen Johnson is not an “impact player”.  He can jump into the game, hit a three every once in a while, blah blah blah.  He is not elite.  He is a terrible ball handler and does not have fast feet.  Foreman is a more effective addition to this lineup.  He is a big man with quick feet who can also give us height and ultimately effectiveness as a rebounder and scorer.

[HoosierPal]

1 hour ago, TheOne said:

Breaking news - Jalen Johnson is not an “impact player”.  He can jump into the game, hit a three every once in a while, blah blah blah.  He is not elite.  He is a terrible ball handler and does not have fast feet.  Foreman is a more effective addition to this lineup.  He is a big man with quick feet who can also give us height and ultimately effectiveness as a rebounder and scorer.

It is somewhat unfortunate for Jalen that he has been cast into the '4' spot on this team.  I agree that today, Johnson's arrow is pointed down and Foreman's is pointing up.  For now, DJ has taken that spot over on minutes played.  But these two have a vastly different skill sets.  Of course Johnson is our second leading three point % shooter, and DJ has thankfully yet to try one.  DJ is not a good ball handler, as he leads the team in turn overs per 40 minutes and per 100 possessions.  Jalen isn't great either, but he has improved since last season.  Both seem to end up at the point on the 1-3-1 zone, so they have comparable assignments.  DJ has had issues guarding smaller players man to man on the perimeter, and Jalen has had issues guarding bigger players in the paint.  Last five games Johnson has 19 rebounds, Foreman 23, so the difference isn't as great as you might think.  For the year, Johnson averages 4.1 rpg and Foreman only 2.9 rpg. In conference play DJ is shooting an unbelievable 75% - LEADING THE A-10, but only 54% from the line.  Johnson is 45% fg and 90% ft and 38% from the arc.

Both guys have a role on this team.  I believe match-ups will partially dictate who plays and for how long. Yes their minutes are directly related to each other, with Foreman only slipping into the post when French has to sit.  Ford hasn't put Johnson at the three very often, as Bess hasn't shown he can handle the point and hasn't been in the three guard rotation.

[HoosierPal]

16 hours ago, Quality Is Job 1 said:

Does VCU still use that constant, aggressive full-court trapping defense that Shaka Smart had his hand in and some of his former associates continued to utilize, or have they become a little more "traditional"?

I watched most of the VCU v Dayton game, which Dayton won easily.  They did not use the full court 'Havoc" all the time, only on occasions.  Perhaps they called it off as it was a lopsided game.

[Quality Is Job 1]

5 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

I watched most of the VCU v Dayton game, which Dayton won easily.  They did not use the full court 'Havoc" all the time, only on occasions.  Perhaps they called it off as it was a lopsided game.

Thanks.

[slusam]

19 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

It is somewhat unfortunate for Jalen that he has been cast into the '4' spot on this team.  I agree that today, Johnson's arrow is pointed down and Foreman's is pointing up.  For now, DJ has taken that spot over on minutes played.  But these two have a vastly different skill sets.  Of course Johnson is our second leading three point % shooter, and DJ has thankfully yet to try one.  DJ is not a good ball handler, as he leads the team in turn overs per 40 minutes and per 100 possessions.  Jalen isn't great either, but he has improved since last season.  Both seem to end up at the point on the 1-3-1 zone, so they have comparable assignments.  DJ has had issues guarding smaller players man to man on the perimeter, and Jalen has had issues guarding bigger players in the paint.  Last five games Johnson has 19 rebounds, Foreman 23, so the difference isn't as great as you might think.  For the year, Johnson averages 4.1 rpg and Foreman only 2.9 rpg. In conference play DJ is shooting an unbelievable 75% - LEADING THE A-10, but only 54% from the line.  Johnson is 45% fg and 90% ft and 38% from the arc.

Both guys have a role on this team.  I believe match-ups will partially dictate who plays and for how long. Yes their minutes are directly related to each other, with Foreman only slipping into the post when French has to sit.  Ford hasn't put Johnson at the three very often, as Bess hasn't shown he can handle the point and hasn't been in the three guard rotation.

Johnsons issues are when he is guarding the ball. Players drive right by him because of his lack of foot speed. DJ has quick feet so he doesn't have this issue. Johnson also needs to develop his right hand. He always goes left. I don't remember him ever scoring with his right hand.

[billiken_roy]

johnson is confusing.    he seems to be a consistent shooter, but beyond that we never know which johnson is going to show.   the one game where he was the rebounding machine is the jalen johnson i want.   

foreman is now playing like the foreman i expected and i think it is a big reason the last 2-3 games we have looked so much better.   i shudder every time he puts the ball on the floor, however he is successful enough doing it i guess ford lets him go.   i love him on the top of that 1-3-1.   with his length and quickness he is a nightmare for opposing point guards. 

i have never been a big zone guy, but i think our 1-3-1 is very good and is our best defense.   that said, if we played it all the time, teams would adjust and it wouldnt be as effective.   it also always makes rebounding tougher as you have to go find a man to block out.   leads to fouls, and we have enough problems with fouls as it is.  

[teamarete]

23 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

i have never been a big zone guy, but i think our 1-3-1 is very good and is our best defense.   that said, if we played it all the time, teams would adjust and it wouldnt be as effective.   it also always makes rebounding tougher as you have to go find a man to block out.  

I never believed in the zone defense being a reason not to rebound well theory.  Some of the years my team ran zone were some of my best rebounding teams.  I also think teams can run zones exclusively and do well.  I think of Syracuse and John Chaney's old temple teams for example.  You can always add a wrinkle to a zone so their are variances (trapping, stunting).

[billiken_roy]

41 minutes ago, teamarete said:

I never believed in the zone defense being a reason not to rebound well theory.  Some of the years my team ran zone were some of my best rebounding teams.  I also think teams can run zones exclusively and do well.  I think of Syracuse and John Chaney's old temple teams for example.  You can always add a wrinkle to a zone so their are variances (trapping, stunting).

let me know when a billiken team has as much and as deep talent as a syracuse or chaney temple team.   talent fixes a lot of problems. 

[teamarete]

21 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

let me know when a billiken team has as much and as deep talent as a syracuse or chaney temple team.   talent fixes a lot of problems. 

The old temple teams only went 6-7 deep.  Besides, many teams play zone because it isn't as physically taxing nor do you see foul trouble as much.