wgstl Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 First of all, is he on crack? Take a look https://kenpom.com/ Has SLU at 168th/10th in A10 He see's SLU as just a slight improvement from last year. He had UMASS at 158 last year in the final rankings and they were awful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, wgstl said: First of all, is he on crack? Take a look https://kenpom.com/ Has SLU at 168th/10th in A10 He see's SLU as just a slight improvement from last year. He had UMASS at 158 last year and they were awful. He has SLU improving 105 spots in his ratings. For comparison he has Mizzou improving 75 spots to 81. I wouldn’t worry about where he has us now. Systems like Pomeroy have a tough time dealing with such a high number of new players. Worry about where he has us a third of the way into the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 7 minutes ago, wgstl said: First of all, is he on crack? Take a look https://kenpom.com/ Has SLU at 168th/10th in A10 He see's SLU as just a slight improvement from last year. He had UMASS at 158 last year in the final rankings and they were awful. -after learning from The Wiz, we'll know a lot more at about 9:15pm on December 9th -perhaps he is factoring in some discipline for players Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 You’re probably not going to like where SI has us either. https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2017/10/19/atlantic-10-projections-preview-team-rankings-standings Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 if Sports Illustrated is correct that 4 out of our 7 top minutes on the floor guys are the players returning and 2 out if the top 3 scorers are returning players, their 8th place prediction is probably correct. Littlebill likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3star_recruit Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 SI is looking at Henriquez's production in a similar rated conference and projects him as a similar scorer in the A10. They are not buying into Jordan Goodwin as a double figure scorer and an assist guy right away. And they don't think French will be a major contributor. So if those are your assumptions, then 8th place is a reasonable prediction. Very skeptical assumptions, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwyjibo Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 The Hanner method that SI uses is the best preview method but it cannot factor in anticipated improvement. They use general recruiting rankings for freshman and JUCOs as well as historical data for transfers and returning players. They also factor in coaching history. The sum is likely greater than those parts but that is the nature of using only objective data and not spitballing relative optimism. Pomeroy does not use alot of individual level metrics for his preview. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glorydays2013 Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Kenpom will sort itself out in the first 4 weeks. Mizzou did quite alright against Kansas, but they will struggle without the Porters next year. They have a great short term fix but we have a really really good short and long term team right now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Whatever SI or Kenpom is ranking SLU at and as long as the ranking is based upon last year's team's performance, you must consider the ratings given to SLU as invalid. We have what amounts to a vastly improved team, the only question being how well integrated it will be at the beginning of the season. I think that for a valid ranking, we must wait until the results for the first 8 or 10 games of this season are in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 12 hours ago, Cowboy said: -after learning from The Wiz, we'll know a lot more at about 9:15pm on December 9th -perhaps he is factoring in some discipline for players One must remember that all preseason forecasts are made using rear view mirrors. And the more turnover a team has, the more the mirror will be fogged. These models do not show a best case scenario. They show a lesser "more probable" outcome....in this case maybe a 1 letter grade improvement. For those who remember, my best case scenario was a 2 letter improvement. Again, I think most forecasting tools can only give a 1 grade letter on hope with no data. I haven't started on my preseason Bayesian forecasting model. I have a feeling it too will land somewhere in the C area. My own personal "you gotta see the kids play" feeling is ...we in fact have a good chance to come in at a B rating ...2 letter increase..once the data comes in. At least the potential is there.... Which brings me to Cowboy's point....after the Houston game. As a good Wiz student , he is correct ...that is the 8th Billiken game...the magic number which gives me enough data to make accurate ( well at least more accurate) predictions. But alas, we in fact will have to wait till after the Murray St game on Dec 12. because coming into the Bills game Murray St won't have the requisite 8 games. But an extra game for the Bills will be good for the data collection. New team...new size...new strength...new intensity.....tick...tick...tick I have been to the mountain...Bill-ieve Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 Wiz, you said what I said above but restated it by saying that statistically "more probable" outcomes required lower estimates of anticipated results for this year. The statistics you are referring to are the standard models that give a fair amount of weight to the results of the prior year. Why not say that to be bound to statistics based upon last years' results introduces significant errors in the preliminary results since there has been an abnormally large change in the makeover and composition of the team which cannot be adequately accounted for using statistical models based upon last year's performance. In other words, there is so much difference between last year's team and this year's team that it cannot be correctly accounted for using the standard modeling methods. We both concluded that until the first 8 games are done, stats based upon last years' team have a "high probability" of being invalid (although you did not say it as directly as I did). We are in the same boat, we are both believers in the Bills. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WashMoBill Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 KenPom admits their preseason rankings are based a lot on past performance and past recruiting classes more than what they are bringing in. It makes it worse when there are a bunch of transfer starters. I would worry about KenPom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drkelsey55 Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 None of the teams we play are ranked in the 300's this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 On 10/23/2017 at 9:53 AM, kwyjibo said: The Hanner method that SI uses is the best preview method but it cannot factor in anticipated improvement. They use general recruiting rankings for freshman and JUCOs as well as historical data for transfers and returning players. They also factor in coaching history. The sum is likely greater than those parts but that is the nature of using only objective data and not spitballing relative optimism. Pomeroy does not use alot of individual level metrics for his preview. Here is basic breakdown on how SI comes up with the rankings. https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2016/10/12/team-rankings-projections-predictions-system Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 -looking at our schedule with KenPom's ending 2017 and beginning 2018 - the overall ranking improved about 4 spots and the conference only ranking dropped about 9 spots KenPom 2017 2018 Saint Louis 273 168 Seattle # 265 278 Rockhurst n/a n/a Virginia Tech # 50 53 Providence or 60 25 or Washington # 163 130 Detroit Mercy # 302 274 Western Michigan 162 147 Butler 25 42 Southern Illinois 150 148 Houston 52 64 Murray State 197 156 Oregon State 264 70 Campbell 278 215 Southeast Missouri State 228 298 La Salle * 140 137 Davidson * 85 86 Richmond * 92 113 Rhode Island * 34 62 George Mason * 123 169 Duquesne * 224 234 Massachusetts * 158 176 VCU * 48 83 Dayton * 39 103 Saint Joseph's * 184 66 Fordham * 202 190 St. Bonaventure * 91 77 La Salle * 140 137 Richmond * 92 113 Dayton * 39 103 George Washington * 132 143 Duquesne * 224 234 St. Bonaventure * 91 77 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwyjibo Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 This picture (yesterday) tells me the Duquesne is going to have a special season: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 15 minutes ago, kwyjibo said: This picture (yesterday) tells me the Duquesne is going to have a special season: Very nice! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Metzinger Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 On 10/23/2017 at 11:31 AM, Old guy said: Whatever SI or Kenpom is ranking SLU at and as long as the ranking is based upon last year's team's performance, you must consider the ratings given to SLU as invalid. We have what amounts to a vastly improved team, the only question being how well integrated it will be at the beginning of the season. I think that for a valid ranking, we must wait until the results for the first 8 or 10 games of this season are in. The same SI who predicted the Astros winning it all in '17 stand a mere 81 outs away from that not happening. I don't trust them either. Let's watch the season unfold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 1 hour ago, Cowboy said: -looking at our schedule with KenPom's ending 2017 and beginning 2018 - the overall ranking improved about 4 spots and the conference only ranking dropped about 9 spots KenPom 2017 2018 Saint Louis 273 168 Seattle # 265 278 Rockhurst n/a n/a Virginia Tech # 50 53 Providence or 60 25 or Washington # 163 130 Detroit Mercy # 302 274 Western Michigan 162 147 Butler 25 42 Southern Illinois 150 148 Houston 52 64 Murray State 197 156 Oregon State 264 70 Campbell 278 215 Southeast Missouri State 228 298 La Salle * 140 137 Davidson * 85 86 Richmond * 92 113 Rhode Island * 34 62 George Mason * 123 169 Duquesne * 224 234 Massachusetts * 158 176 VCU * 48 83 Dayton * 39 103 Saint Joseph's * 184 66 Fordham * 202 190 St. Bonaventure * 91 77 La Salle * 140 137 Richmond * 92 113 Dayton * 39 103 George Washington * 132 143 Duquesne * 224 234 St. Bonaventure * 91 77 Wow, look at the jump for Oregon State. I read where they have one of the top 20 front courts in the nation, but that is a significant jump from 264 to 70. I have this as a W on my prediction...hmmm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 The art of prediction at its best. Keep a hold of this list until the end of the season and then calculate how many of these predictions are correct, and how many are not and by what % deviation. You will open your eyes when you find the number of incorrect predictions by over 40% and 50% either over or below of where the teams actually end the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufanskip Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 2 hours ago, Old guy said: The art of prediction at its best. Keep a hold of this list until the end of the season and then calculate how many of these predictions are correct, and how many are not and by what % deviation. You will open your eyes when you find the number of incorrect predictions by over 40% and 50% either over or below of where the teams actually end the season. are you saying many predictions are wrong? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 I am saying that most predictions made without observing play first are wrong to some degree, yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glorydays2013 Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 Providence wrecked Uconn last night. Going to be a true test in the tournament coming up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted October 30, 2017 Author Share Posted October 30, 2017 https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ranking-all-351-college-basketball-teams-from-duke-to-alabama-a-m/ CBS has us at 108 108. Saint Louis Billikens Travis Ford brings in a talented freshman class to combine with some transfers. The Billikens are a mixed bunch, but the program's on its way back to realistically being in the NCAA tourney picture. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Billikens come in at 134 in ESPN's BPI. http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/view/overview/page/6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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