Old guy Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 Thank you Wiz. I am not concerned about the technicalities of the Mizzou discussion, this is not my cup of tea. However I wanted the rationale for the 2 letter range for improvement or deterioration. The mention that this corresponds (loosely) to 2 SDs is OK with me. Every grading, rating system, has to be taken as a rough approximation of reality since there are so many factors involved that require expert estimation. The 2 standard deviation is a fine limit for an area of possibilities that may occur in real life. Reaching above or below this becomes an exercise in analysis of asymptotic curves, in other words a waste of time for a rating or ranking system that would require a non available level of correctness for the many factors included in the system. Appreciate your answer, thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TFord and TRavs Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 Also don't know how mizzou can win 2 conference games and 4 less overall and be an entire letter grade above SLU. If SLU was a D, Mizzou was a D, just because they are too scared to play us we won't know who was better but slu and Mizzou are much the same in transformation. You are right, slu has players who know the system and have been around (transfers) and two top recruits. However Mizzou has NBA level talent and a top 5 draft pick next year. System is going to focus on him and they will be significantly better next year too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsmith19 Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 1 hour ago, TFord and TRavs said: Also don't know how mizzou can win 2 conference games and 4 less overall and be an entire letter grade above SLU. Because their schedule was tougher. This is not rocket science. GoryDaze now gets credit for the only two usernames I have ever added to my ignore list... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box and Won Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 1 hour ago, TFord and TRavs said: Also don't know how mizzou can win 2 conference games and 4 less overall and be an entire letter grade above SLU. If SLU was a D, Mizzou was a D, just because they are too scared to play us we won't know who was better but slu and Mizzou are much the same in transformation. You are right, slu has players who know the system and have been around (transfers) and two top recruits. However Mizzou has NBA level talent and a top 5 draft pick next year. System is going to focus on him and they will be significantly better next year too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsmith19 Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 Duke was too scared to play us last year, so we don't know who was better. So if we're a D, they're a D too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CBFan Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 1 hour ago, TFord and TRavs said: Also don't know how mizzou can win 2 conference games and 4 less overall and be an entire letter grade above SLU. If SLU was a D, Mizzou was a D, just because they are too scared to play us we won't know who was better but slu and Mizzou are much the same in transformation. You are right, slu has players who know the system and have been around (transfers) and two top recruits. However Mizzou has NBA level talent and a top 5 draft pick next year. System is going to focus on him and they will be significantly better next year too I always trust in The Wiz. LSU had Ben Simmons 1 draft pick in the NBA 2016. I am sure the LSU team was built around Simmons and look what happened LSU finished 19-14, 11-7 in the SEC. This could happen to Missouri but I agree they will be significantly better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 Wiz, I think you've done this before, but can you show the numerical ranking for teams listed in each of your letter grade categories? (i.e. A+ means 1-15, A is 1+ to 35, etc.) I think once you do that, it will be obvious to people why its so hard to move more than 2 letter grades in any given year....it's a really long way to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 Kshoe, I never meant to indicate it was easy to go up two letters in ranking. I was only interested in the mechanics of his system and the reason for the 2 letter barrier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 1 hour ago, CBFan said: I always trust in The Wiz. LSU had Ben Simmons 1 draft pick in the NBA 2016. I am sure the LSU team was built around Simmons and look what happened LSU finished 19-14, 11-7 in the SEC. This could happen to Missouri but I agree they will be significantly better. And of course #1 NBA Draft Choice Fultz lead Washington to a 9-22 record, 2-16 in the Pac 12, last season. That's not a good trend. And +1 on the Wiz. That dude is smart. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheeseman Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 The thing with using Washington as an example for why Missouri may not be good is that Martin is not on the hot seat as romar was. I know LSU had a first year coach so I guess you could say the same thing for Martin and Missouri next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMM28 Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 These guys are coming on here thinking they're better than the Wiz? The fycking Wiz?? You know what happened to the last guy that thought that? MB73 hasn't been heard from in a long time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 4 hours ago, TFord and TRavs said: Also don't know how mizzou can win 2 conference games and 4 less overall and be an entire letter grade above SLU. If SLU was a D, Mizzou was a D, just because they are too scared to play us we won't know who was better but slu and Mizzou are much the same in transformation. You are right, slu has players who know the system and have been around (transfers) and two top recruits. However Mizzou has NBA level talent and a top 5 draft pick next year. System is going to focus on him and they will be significantly better next year too Two seasons ago Martin had four future NBA draft picks (including the #3 pick), Jordan Matthews and Kameron Rooks. That team lost in the first round to Hawaii. My guess is that the Wiz had that team rated as a flat A. Mizzou won't have close to that kind of talent next season for Martin. How do you think Mizzou is going to some how be able to equal or exceed those Cal results two years ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3star_recruit Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 To piggyback on Brian's point, this is the worst collection of guards Martin has had since he's been a high major coach. I know Porter is a stud but can he make mediocre guards better? Ben Simmons couldn't and he's a point forward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 Mizzery is counting on basically a FR loaded team? Good luck with that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TFord and TRavs Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 31 minutes ago, slu72 said: Mizzery is counting on basically a FR loaded team? Good luck with that. Works for duke and Kentucky a lot. I don't expect them to be on that level but if they play well together, CJ Roberts, Tilmon, Porter, Blake Harris and Barnett can be a threat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CBFan Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 3 hours ago, HoosierPal said: And of course #1 NBA Draft Choice Fultz lead Washington to a 9-22 record, 2-16 in the Pac 12, last season. That's not a good trend. And +1 on the Wiz. That dude is smart. Better evidence, I tell my Mizzou friends that think they are going to the big dance to take a step back and watch them play first. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 5 hours ago, kshoe said: Wiz, I think you've done this before, but can you show the numerical ranking for teams listed in each of your letter grade categories? (i.e. A+ means 1-15, A is 1+ to 35, etc.) I think once you do that, it will be obvious to people why its so hard to move more than 2 letter grades in any given year....it's a really long way to go. This will be as of April of 2017.... It changes a bit every year but this will give you the idea. A+....1-17 A.......18-32 A-.......32-51 B+.......52-77 B...........78-103 B-...........104--132 C+...........133-16! C.............162-189 C-............190-216 D+............217-244 D...............245-272 D-..............273-300 F+...............301-317 F..................318-335 F-..................336-351 The difference between teams with the same grade should be statistically insignificant. As you can see it is quite a move to make a full 2 letter jump...even in the middle (C+ to C-) where teams and numbers tend to bunch up.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 3 hours ago, brianstl said: Two seasons ago Martin had four future NBA draft picks (including the #3 pick), Jordan Matthews and Kameron Rooks. That team lost in the first round to Hawaii. My guess is that the Wiz had that team rated as a flat A. Mizzou won't have close to that kind of talent next season for Martin. How do you think Mizzou is going to some how be able to equal or exceed those Cal results two years ago. Good job....You are correct....I had Cal at A Cal was a 4 seed against 13 seed Hawaii...a weaker team from a weaker conference. Cal should have won by at least 5....instead lost by 11...not a great Martin moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 LaSalle comes in at #125, ranked 9th in the A-10. Projected CBI/CIT/V16. Article says that 6'7" BJ Johnson, with a solid season, could end up as a second rounder in the 2018 NBA draft. I know, I know, Uncle Jack doesn't care. http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/14887 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zink Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 1 hour ago, HoosierPal said: LaSalle comes in at #125, ranked 9th in the A-10. Projected CBI/CIT/V16. Article says that 6'7" BJ Johnson, with a solid season, could end up as a second rounder in the 2018 NBA draft. I know, I know, Uncle Jack doesn't care. http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/14887 We have to be ahead of them, no? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 21 minutes ago, Zink said: We have to be ahead of them, no? Not so sure we will be. LaSalle played w/ a bunch of transfers last year and most of them are back. Taj Mahal 79 please correct me if I'm wrong here. They finished at .500 and ahead of us. Whether this blog ranks us ahead of them depends upon how they assess the impact of our transfers and FR, a pretty obvious point, but I'm not so sure they'll be as impressed as we fans with what Travis has accomplished in that regard. Of course Goodwin and French are both better than average A10 recruits, so that might put us ahead of LaSalle. Goodwin especially. After reading the LaSalle report, we shouldn't have to wait long to see what these guys think about SLU. Right now, my guess is if we don't make the cut by 110 we ain't gonna be listed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TFord and TRavs Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 31 minutes ago, Zink said: We have to be ahead of them, no? If I'm reading it right, la salle is projected 9th in A10 so 8 teams in the A10 should be coming up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 Here is a topic for discussion. Who will match up with the BJ Johnson's of the world? He shoots the three and also takes it to the hoop. Averaged 6.3 boards per game. Those 6'7" athletes have been a historical nightmare for the Billikens. What we don't know is how well any of the transfers defend in Ford's system. It is also a big transition from defending in HS to defending in college. Is Johnson strong enough to handle someone basically his size? Do you put Roby on these guys and give up 3+ inches? Time and a few games will tell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MusicCityBilliken Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, HoosierPal said: Here is a topic for discussion. Who will match up with the BJ Johnson's of the world? He shoots the three and also takes it to the hoop. Averaged 6.3 boards per game. Those 6'7" athletes have been a historical nightmare for the Billikens. What we don't know is how well any of the newcomers defend. It is also a big transition from defending in HS to defending in college. Is Johnson strong enough to handle someone basically his size? Time and a few games will tell. Someone must have done it. On our March 1st game with LaSalle BJ was only 3 for 15 and only 1 for 8 in 3 land. He had 8 total pts (hardly fouled him) in 37 minutes that night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bauman Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 I don't follow the other A-10 teams as closely as some of you, but if 8 other schools are going to be ranked ahead of us (in this dumb ranking) does it make sense that it might be these schools---URI; VCU; Dayton; St. Joe; Richmond; GW; Davidson and SBU? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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