hsmith19 Posted June 29, 2017 Share Posted June 29, 2017 21 hours ago, 3star_recruit said: In the spirit of getting the thread back on topic, I expect the following A10 teams to appear in the top 144. 1. Rhode Island 2. VCU 3. St. Bonaventure 4. Davidson 5. Dayton 6. Richmond 7. Saint Louis I'm walking back by earlier 8th or 9th comment and sticking is in at 7th. I think St. Joe's will be significantly improved with 3 injured players returning including a 20 ppg scorer but we finished ahead of them last year playing what will be our bench this year. 7th should be high enough to get us in the top 144. I think this is about right, except St. Bona is too high by quite a bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACE Posted June 29, 2017 Share Posted June 29, 2017 21 hours ago, 3star_recruit said: In the spirit of getting the thread back on topic, I expect the following A10 teams to appear in the top 144. 1. Rhode Island 2. VCU 3. St. Bonaventure 4. Davidson 5. Dayton 6. Richmond 7. Saint Louis I'm walking back by earlier 8th or 9th comment and sticking is in at 7th. I think St. Joe's will be significantly improved with 3 injured players returning including a 20 ppg scorer but we finished ahead of them last year playing what will be our bench this year. 7th should be high enough to get us in the top 144. I admit, I will be VERY disappointed if we finish 7th. LaSalle and Mason finished tied for 7th last year with 9 wins. We gotta be better than that this year. We had 6 conference wins last year with a walk on as our starting point guard. Davidson, with Jack Gibbs, only had two more conference wins than we did. Dayton is losing a LOT. So is VCU. I don't think a 3rd place finish behind URI and perhaps Bonawelding is unrealistic. Not even talking about the transfers, we are the only A-10 school with a Top 100 recruit... and we have two of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3star_recruit Posted June 29, 2017 Share Posted June 29, 2017 I expect us to finish 4th or 5th but I suspect the national prognosticators will not turn on Dayton and Richmond that quickly. And they can use Coach Ford's national reputation as a recruiter first and a coach second to justify that position. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box and Won Posted June 29, 2017 Share Posted June 29, 2017 2 hours ago, hsmith19 said: I think this is about right, except St. Bona is too high by quite a bit. Who are they losing this year? Much like the Wu-Tang Clan, Bonnies ain't nothing to f--- wit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MusicCityBilliken Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 I see Neufield's future team (UC Davis) coming in at #128. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 The interesting fact here is that Neufeld managed to land in a team ranked higher than SLU ranked last season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 25 minutes ago, Old guy said: The interesting fact here is that Neufeld managed to land in a team ranked higher than SLU ranked last season. There were only a few teams in which he couldn't land on a team ranked higher than us Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 The Bills = D UC Davis = B-...or about the same as the Georges....Mason and Washington Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TFord and TRavs Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 35 minutes ago, The Wiz said: The Bills = D UC Davis = B-...or about the same as the Georges....Mason and Washington That's where you're wrong. Next years team and last years are completely different. Roby and Johnson are the true returning players and won't dominate minutes close to last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box and Won Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, TFord and TRavs said: That's where you're wrong. Next years team and last years are completely different. Roby and Johnson are the true returning players and won't dominate minutes close to last year. No, the ratings are permanent and unchanging. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TFord and TRavs Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 Just now, Box and Won said: No, the ratings are permanent and unchanging. Still foolish of the "Wiz" to rate us a D. We're easily a B, B+ team this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, TFord and TRavs said: Still foolish of the "Wiz" to rate us a D. We're easily a B, B+ team this year. They don't change until the Wiz says they change. He doesn't fly by the seat of his pants. He waits until he sees this team in action, runs it thru his disgronifier, and his atomic algorithm program before he comes out with his rankings. That said, I read thru the UCD team report and reached the conclusion that based solely on the quality of our transfers vs UCD's there is no way they can leave us out this go around. If they do, this whole series is bogus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 26 minutes ago, TFord and TRavs said: Still foolish of the "Wiz" to rate us a D. We're easily a B, B+ team this year. Glory, look in the mirror before you call someone foolish. These are last season's ratings. They are very helpful to those of us who appreciate valid comparisons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 These grades are from April 2017...the close of the season. People are comparing UCD to SLU ...and so these grades are for comparative purposes.. And what they show is at the close of the season Neufeld went to a better team...in April of 2017. As SLU72 said ...I like to make my forecasts on real data. I will throw out at this point some general trends. When a team makes a whole sale change...i.e. 5+ players ...the max improvement is generally 2 letter grades...so the Bills upside potential could be a grade of B.... Now before somebody goes running off saying that The Wiz has graded the Bills at B for the upcoming season....this is a max grade....if everything goes right...minimal injuries, everybody shows up, everybody adjusts (academically and athletically.) ..then we could finish with a B...which in the A-10 and an average preseason schedule could translate into 17-22 wins...which might mean an NIT. As for the Top 144...we could make it...a grade B might put us around 100....a grade C and we don't make the list. As most prognosticators use a rear view mirror to make their forecasts I would be surprised if we make it on to the list. I guess being from Missouri we will just have to Show them Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CBFan Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 50 minutes ago, The Wiz said: These grades are from April 2017...the close of the season. People are comparing UCD to SLU ...and so these grades are for comparative purposes.. And what they show is at the close of the season Neufeld went to a better team...in April of 2017. As SLU72 said ...I like to make my forecasts on real data. I will throw out at this point some general trends. When a team makes a whole sale change...i.e. 5+ players ...the max improvement is generally 2 letter grades...so the Bills upside potential could be a grade of B.... Now before somebody goes running off saying that The Wiz has graded the Bills at B for the upcoming season....this is a max grade....if everything goes right...minimal injuries, everybody shows up, everybody adjusts (academically and athletically.) ..then we could finish with a B...which in the A-10 and an average preseason schedule could translate into 17-22 wins...which might mean an NIT. As for the Top 144...we could make it...a grade B might put us around 100....a grade C and we don't make the list. As most prognosticators use a rear view mirror to make their forecasts I would be surprised if we make it on to the list. I guess being from Missouri we will just have to Show them I always appreciate your insight Wiz and I have learned we have to see the team play. The rule of the max improvement of two letter grades makes good sense and will result in a winning season in non-conference schedule as well as the conference schedule. The Billikens being in the running for a upper division finish is great improvement and will be fun to watch and as you say, tick, tick, tick... November in 4 months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TFord and TRavs Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 1 hour ago, The Wiz said: These grades are from April 2017...the close of the season. People are comparing UCD to SLU ...and so these grades are for comparative purposes.. And what they show is at the close of the season Neufeld went to a better team...in April of 2017. As SLU72 said ...I like to make my forecasts on real data. I will throw out at this point some general trends. When a team makes a whole sale change...i.e. 5+ players ...the max improvement is generally 2 letter grades...so the Bills upside potential could be a grade of B.... Now before somebody goes running off saying that The Wiz has graded the Bills at B for the upcoming season....this is a max grade....if everything goes right...minimal injuries, everybody shows up, everybody adjusts (academically and athletically.) ..then we could finish with a B...which in the A-10 and an average preseason schedule could translate into 17-22 wins...which might mean an NIT. As for the Top 144...we could make it...a grade B might put us around 100....a grade C and we don't make the list. As most prognosticators use a rear view mirror to make their forecasts I would be surprised if we make it on to the list. I guess being from Missouri we will just have to Show them Ok but Missouri will change much more than 2 letter grades next season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, TFord and TRavs said: Ok but Missouri will change much more than 2 letter grades next season. My guess is he probably had Missouri as a C/C+ team last season. They wont be an A+ team next season, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3star_recruit Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 I've noticed that an A-10 team has not yet appeared in the top 144. They either think the A-10 is going to be pretty top heavy or that the middle is going to be stronger than it was last year when LaSalle was the first entrant at #133. I think it's the latter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CBFan Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 1 hour ago, TFord and TRavs said: Ok but Missouri will change much more than 2 letter grades next season. Back it up. Coach Martin has to teach everyone his system first, then he has to teach the talent to play as a team, and finally will have to win in an improved SEC that Missouri has not competed in. At least with SLU there are transfers and returning players that know coach Ford's system and will be more prepared at the beginning of the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 Once again, reading comprehension remains .... elusive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 4 hours ago, brianstl said: My guess is he probably had Missouri as a C/C+ team last season. They wont be an A+ team next season, +1...You are correct ...I had Mizzou at C+ 4 hours ago, TFord and TRavs said: Ok but Missouri will change much more than 2 letter grades next season. And you are incorrect....If Mizzou was C+, they will NOT change "much more" than 2 letter grades...2 letter grades is the maximum they can move..... unless you are talking about them going down. The Bills are the ones that have the most upside and are the ones who could surprise and become the outlier. BTW...I haven't been following the board real close lately. Why are we talking about Mizzou? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TFord and TRavs Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 25 minutes ago, The Wiz said: BTW...I haven't been following the board real close lately. Why are we talking about Mizzou? We we're talking about teams having dramatically different rosters next year. Slu and mizzou come to my mind Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CBFan Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 13 hours ago, TFord and TRavs said: We we're talking about teams having dramatically different rosters next year. Slu and mizzou come to my mind Still waiting for you to back up your claim that Missouri will change much more than two letter grades next season. What evidence do you have to support such a claim? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 Wiz, forgive me for this, which you may take as a stupid question, but why is there a two letter grade max in moves up and down using your system? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 14 minutes ago, Old guy said: Wiz, forgive me for this, which you may take as a stupid question, but why is there a two letter grade max in moves up and down using your system? In analyzing the grading system over the last 15 years, generally a team at C or less doesn't move more than 2 letter grades up (it is slightly more on the downside.) We are talking about 2 standard deviations for teams that move 2 letters or less . Why is this? Because as it is mentioned many times before ...everything has to go right to even move up 2 letters much less "much more"...The usually factors as I mentioned earlier....all players show up....they adjust to the coach and the system...they adjust to school (academically and socially) ..they adjust to the faster, ,bigger, stronger competition...and this all happens starting in the first few games. That is why the max is 2 letter grades on the upside....That is also why it is easier to fall a couple of grades ...You only need a few things to fail for a team to fall apart quickly (see Crews years) Of course the discussion here with Mizzou is silly because as I pointed out in the above post a team that is starting from C+ can NOT improve " much more" than 2 letter grades.. If the Bills can improve 2 or more letter grades it would be an amazing turn around and a tribute to Ford. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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