Final A-10 Report Card

[The Wiz]

I was going to wait till after the Tourney to do this but decided to do it now because it is this point in time that the tournaments make their decisions.  I will make any adjustments to this card after the Final Four.

Team.........................First report card ( game 8)......................Mid term ( Start of A-10 play).....................Final

Day....................................A-..................................................................A-..................................................A-

RI.......................................A-..................................................................A...................................................A-

VCU...................................A-..................................................................B+.................................................A-

Dav....................................B+.................................................................B+.................................................B 

St. B...................................B+.................................................................B..................................................B

LaS....................................B...................................................................B-.................................................C+

UMass.................................B-.................................................................B-.................................................C+

St. J.....................................B-................................................................B...................................................C+

Rich.....................................C+..............................................................B-...................................................B

Ford.....................................C................................................................C-...................................................C-

GM.......................................C.................................................................B-...................................................B-

GW.......................................C.................................................................B-...................................................B-

Duq.......................................C-...............................................................C-....................................................C-

The Bills................................F+................................................................D-...................................................D

A few notes....normal moves are..... 2 notches between 1st card and Mid...ie.. C to B- and 1 notch between Mid and Final...ie  .. B- to C+.  Of the 28 possible moves  over the last 2 report cards  27 (96%) fell within the normal range. Only St. J who was decimated by injuries was outside the range. ...2 notches down from B to C+  from the Mid to Final card. And even then they only moved 1 notch from beginning to end.. Rich and The Bills were the only 2 teams to show improvement on both of the last 2 cards....usually a sign of good coaching and gelling.

Another note....A- and above teams should be headed to the Dance ....not only did that work out at the end  but it showed up on the 1st card too..  And while the model is meant to be predictive of the Dance  it can also be used as a guide for the other 2 tourneys. Usually B+ indicates NIT ( (No B+s this year)...the remainder...Bs are usually fill-ins for the NIT and CBF. I was surprised that St. B and Dav didn't get bids. I thought St. B had a chance for NIT or CBI and Dav maybe a CBI. These are more unpredictable because there is an extra element. Besides getting the offer , a team has to accept it.  With the Big Dance ...you get an offer ...you take it.  With the other 2...not so much. In the end, it can cost a team more than it can make.

Finally, outside the A-10, I didn't see many surprises. I did not have Ill St  going to the Dance (NIT with a B+)  and I had Marq  (A) Dancing.. I had Illinois ( B+ ) going to the NIT. The only real surprise was Syr (A- ) not making the Dance.. As for the other 2  NIT 1st seeders...Cal & Iowa...both B+ ...both in the right place.

Again, I will update the Final card after the FF... though I don't think there will be a lot of changes.

 

[The Wiz]

No changes to the Final report card... Again, the top 3 made it to the Dance as predicted in the 1st report card (game 8)  All 14 teams stayed within 2 notches of their original grade (which is normal) and 9 of the 14 moved only 1 notch from beginning to end. In my system ,.... you are what you are by the 8th game.

So what does this mean for next year? I read with interest the early prediction threads on the board. To me it is folly to try and predict anything for next year....no schedule...no final roster etc etc.  What I can tell you is that teams that make wholesale changes (5+ players...particularly to the starting lineup) have an upside of 2 letter grades...in this case a grade of B. So what does a B team look like in the A-10? This year they looked like Richmond, St. B and Dav..  In the A-10 this usually means a finish of 8 to 13 wins in conference ( most probable  11 wins) and an overall finish of 17-22 wins ( most probable 20 wins)  and a finish of 4-6th place.

Now before some of you run off half cocked saying  " The Wiz said 22 wins and...."    .........The key to the above statements is the word "upside".  This means maximum potential....best case scenario....everything goes right.....Everyone shows up, the team gels, new players adjust to college basketball and to school and to Ford's system...injuries need to be at a minimum and last but not least  we need a bit of luck. If all that happens , we can finish at a B. Can we finish better than a B ...it's possible but not likely. 

One thing that will not change will be that...."It's not easy being a Bills fan". But after watching the new players in practice and watching Ford get the max out of the players from this year's team , I can tell you things will be better next year. Will we make grade B?  Won't know till around Dec 1 ( game 8)  But I can tell you now , we will be better than D.

Yes, it is not easy being a Bills fan but next year will be easier.

Tick...tick...tick...7 months to a new beginning.