Free Throw Shooting

[Pistol]

Because this subtopic within the Incoming Recruits thread seemed to be gaining some steam, I think it deserves its own thread. I'm glad it did because I've been thinking about it. I'm optimistic about what next season will look like for SLU, but I'd identified a few categories of concern (in addition to the more obvious ones of a new roster, new coach, and growing pains that come with those things):

1. Free Throw Shooting

2. Foul Trouble

3. Post Presence

The third is fairly obvious, given our current and incoming roster. I'd love nothing more than a true center in terms of roster additions, but a guy who'll be ready to man the post right away is usually not available in the spring.

Foul trouble comes from the fact that we're going to have a big, aggressive, downhill type of player in Goodwin. I think he's going to be dynamite for this team overall and will bring the energy and attitude this program has been sorely lacking. But he's also the kind of guy who can pick up a couple quick whistles because of his size, style, and intensity. We'll also be giving up some height in the frontcourt sometimes, as Foreman and French are both traditional PF types and Welmer will be the tallest guy who gets any minutes, and last night we were reminded of his shortcomings around the basket on both ends.

Free throw shooting, though, is the one that is probably the most reasonable concern of those three. The median FT% for all of D-I is 69.8% (the 176th mark out of 351 teams). You only need to go 4 spots up to get to 70%, so I'll call 70% even the dividing line between a top-half and bottom-half FT shooting team.

SLU is ranked 300 out of 351 teams, with a mark of 65.6% on the season. Our best FT shooter by far, Bishop (81.3%), is presumably out the rest of the season and we debate daily about his status for next season. The next guy, Moore (75.6%), has had 41 FTA on the season. Johnson, next at 73.3%, has had 60 FTA. Roby is fourth at 72.3% and gets to the stripe more than any other player on the team. No one else is above 70%. However, outside of Welmer (60.3%), it's unclear how much of a role any of the other players will have next season. So let's look at the incoming players:

Henriquez: 73.3% (85/116, 2014-2016, UCF)

Graves: 60.0% (3/5, 2016, Boston College) - Graves shot 73% on varsity as an underclassman at Page HS in Greensboro; stats are harder to find at Montverde, but he was at this mark or better but didn't play much. As a senior at High Point, he shot 68% from the line.

Goodwin: 55.5% (76/137, 2016-2017, Althoff HS)

Bess: 53.3% (40/75, 2014-2016, Michigan State)

Foreman: 52.7% (87/165, 2014-2016, Rutgers)

French: N/A - Can't find current season statistics for Commonwealth Academy; AAU stats for PSA Cardinals are spotty, but he shoots about 50% from the sampling I can find.

If we're to assume that no fewer than 4 of the incoming players will start, and possibly all 5 starters will come from that list, then we're going to continue to struggle from the FT line. This is going to be a problem in close games. The worst team FT% in all of college basketball right now is 60.8%, and we're at risk of having 4+ rotation players below that mark.

[ACE]

Regarding a post presence, this is the perfect opportunity for a grad transfer big... of course any decent one of those will be in very high demand, but maybe there is a productive guy from a lower conference who would want to step up in class or a player from a better conference who has gotten lost in the numbers game. If we don't add a 4th big, Johnson will have to continue to get some minutes in the role and I would think Bess could get some minutes as an undersized 4.

I know it's just high school and there is time, but those FT numbers on Goodwin are a bit alarming. If that doesn't improve, he will have to come out late in the game when you need free throws to ice it.

[Pistol]

20 minutes ago, ACE said:

I know it's just high school and there is time, but those FT numbers on Goodwin are a bit alarming. If that doesn't improve, he will have to come out late in the game when you need free throws to ice it.

Bess, too, could be another guy with the ball in his hands late in a game. French and Foreman are at least not guys we'll ever be inbounding to, but if we're playing with a small lead late in a game, this is an issue.

[HoosierPal]

I've tracked SLU FT shooting since the 1990-1991 season.  The average over all those years is 68.5%, which isn't all that good.  Majerus' 2009-2010 team was the worst at 61.9%, and Spoon's first team in 1992-1993 tops the list at 72.7%.  For a while this year's squad was challenging the 09-10 record, but they have improved significantly. 

Also of note, Henriquez hits at 73%, but only has averaged 2 attempts per game.

[brianstl]

Is free throw shooting really that important in the big picture?  There is a surprising number of good teams that are either below us or not far above us in free throw percentage.

Our effective FG% is what is killing us and is far more important fixing if we want to improve.  You can't be a good team and shoot like we do.  

[3star_recruit]

We're going to suffer some frustrating losses if we're shooting 60% from the line as a team. Bishop and Roby are going to be the first subs off the bench for that reason alone. And Henriquez or Bishop/Roby may have to be our primary ball handlers at the end of close games to ice it at the line.

[Cowboy]

-may be we should find someone to teach the granny method of ft shooting to those in need,  notice this is not in blue font

[Pistol]

3 hours ago, brianstl said:

Is free throw shooting really that important in the big picture?  There is a surprising number of good teams that are either below us or not far above us in free throw percentage.

Our effective FG% is what is killing us and is far more important fixing if we want to improve.  You can't be a good team and shoot like we do.  

I'd be interested to see the correlation between EFG% and FT% because you'd think it'd be a pretty strong one.

We'll still be much better, even if we're a bad FT shooting team again. It's just going to result in some frustration throughout the year.

[Old guy]

Guys, the issue is not that we are going to be a lot better next year. The issue is how much better. I think there are a few factors that will be important in this regard:

1. Are Foreman and Goodwin going to be fully healed and recovered plus ready for full time practice before the 2017 - 2018 season starts?

2. Is Bishop going to remain in the team or not?

3. Are Gillmann and Neufelf going to remain in the team or not?

4. If some of these players transfer, who is going to replace them?

I would say forget the issue with the FTs until we find out who is going to leave and who is not after the season is over. If anyone leaves we need to find out who is going to replace them,  and then we need to find out if Goodwin and Foreman will be ready to practice and play from the start of next season. Things will become a lot clearer after we have this information.

[willie]

2 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Guys, the issue is not that we are going to be a lot better next year. The issue is how much better. I think there are a few factors that will be important in this regard:

1. Are Foreman and Goodwin going to be fully healed and recovered plus ready for full time practice before the 2017 - 2018 season starts?

2. Is Bishop going to remain in the team or not?

3. Are Gillmann and Neufelf going to remain in the team or not?

4. If some of these players transfer, who is going to replace them?

I would say forget the issue with the FTs until we find out who is going to leave and who is not after the season is over. If anyone leaves we need to find out who is going to replace them,  and then we need to find out if Goodwin and Foreman will be ready to practice and play from the start of next season. Things will become a lot clearer after we have this information.

I really don't think points 2 and 3 are factors on how good we will be next year. While I hope Bishop is part of next years team he would probably only be a bench player. Who knows what you might get with Neufeld or Gillmann's scholarships? How good we will be will be determined by how good the transfers are and how good the freshmen are. 

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, Pistol said:

I'd be interested to see the correlation between EFG% and FT% because you'd think it'd be a pretty strong one.

We'll still be much better, even if we're a bad FT shooting team again. It's just going to result in some frustration throughout the year.

Not much of a correlation. Taking the top 25 EFG% and FT%  lists ...only 6 FT teams match up with  the EFG list

Btw 2 FT teams that don't match up are #7 LaS and #9 St. B.

[BillsBeliever!!!]

6 minutes ago, willie said:

I really don't think points 2 and 3 are factors on how good we will be next year. While I hope Bishop is part of next years team he would probably only be a bench player. Who knows what you might get with Neufeld or Gillmann's scholarships? How good we will be will be determined by how good the transfers are and how good the freshmen are. 

Number 3 very well could be a big factor. If one of them transfers then we can get a big guy for down low.

[BillsBeliever!!!]

Believe it or not, we are a better FT shooting team the Rhodey

Also we are the 7th best 3PT% in the A10

[Box and Won]

15 hours ago, Cowboy said:

-may be we should find someone to teach the granny method of ft shooting to those in need,  notice this is not in blue font

This American Life did an interesting piece in which Malcolm Gladwell talked granny free throws with Rick Barry.  It makes total sense to shoot free throws that way, but no one is willing to do it. 

[CBFan]

Great post Pistol here is my opinion however I will point out that I am the least knowledgeable on players on this site but for me it is fun to talk about.

1) Free throws will probably be an issue and will cost next seasons team some frustrating losses if we have bigs in that shoot a low percentage.  Reggie is a example of bigs and free throw frustration.  There are guys that I trust such as Johnson, Moore, Roby, Bishop in late game situations but if they are defending a 1 or 2 possession lead under a minute can these guys defend enough in the post and I would say probably not.

2) Foul trouble, I believe the team is deeper next season and can endure some foul trouble.  This season Reggie is our only post player and when Reggie gets in foul trouble there is very little post presence.  Next season we will have French and Foreman and I think Johnson has shown he can change shots by his shot blocking so at least there is a little more depth.  The guard position is much deeper with the addition of Goodwin and Graves and I trust Roby and Bishop to fill in with quality minutes when guards in foul trouble.

3) Post presence, covered some of it with foul trouble I really like Foreman and French and I think Johnson could play in that area.  Coach Spoonhour's teams did not have much of a post presence with Robinson and Pederson but was able to dance with a great shooting team however when that team met up with a post presence in the big dance there were problems.

Happy Friday everyone

[HoosierPal]

41 minutes ago, CBFan said:

Great post Pistol here is my opinion however I will point out that I am the least knowledgeable on players on this site but for me it is fun to talk about.

1) Free throws will probably be an issue and will cost next seasons team some frustrating losses if we have bigs in that shoot a low percentage.  Reggie is a example of bigs and free throw frustration.  There are guys that I trust such as Johnson, Moore, Roby, Bishop in late game situations but if they are defending a 1 or 2 possession lead under a minute can these guys defend enough in the post and I would say probably not.

2) Foul trouble, I believe the team is deeper next season and can endure some foul trouble.  This season Reggie is our only post player and when Reggie gets in foul trouble there is very little post presence.  Next season we will have French and Foreman and I think Johnson has shown he can change shots by his shot blocking so at least there is a little more depth.  The guard position is much deeper with the addition of Goodwin and Graves and I trust Roby and Bishop to fill in with quality minutes when guards in foul trouble.

3) Post presence, covered some of it with foul trouble I really like Foreman and French and I think Johnson could play in that area.  Coach Spoonhour's teams did not have much of a post presence with Robinson and Pederson but was able to dance with a great shooting team however when that team met up with a post presence in the big dance there were problems.

Happy Friday everyone

Agree with your post CBFan.  Free throws are normally huge in a game.  And how many front end of one and one's have we missed this year?  Yes we are hitting 65%, but front end misses don't get captured in that stat.

I think you can almost include Bess in your discussion of post players.  From what I read in the East Lansing newspapers when he transferred, he did not have the skill set to be a guard at MSU and was undersized as a 4 in the Big Ten.  But he won't  be undersized at the 4 in the A-10.  He is listed at 6'5".  [What was Donnie Dobbs?  6'2"?  I remember a story Spoon told about Dobbs, how when recruited Donnie, he was 6'4", but apparently there was some 'shrinkage' by the time he traveled east to SLU.]

Two other wild cards are returning players, and injuries.  The list of current players who may or may not return include:  Bishop, Gillmann, Hines, Johnson, Moore, Neufeld, Psimitis, Roby and Welmer.  Until they make their decisions, speculation on starters, rotation, etc. is premature.  Irregardless of what some of the MBM's in the know state, no player has stated he definitely is leaving.  We also have two injured players on next season's roster, Foreman and Goodwin.  Will they be 100% by tip off? Any delay in full practice will hinder their development in Coach's system.

[Pistol]

12 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Not much of a correlation. Taking the top 25 EFG% and FT%  lists ...only 6 FT teams match up with  the EFG list

Btw 2 FT teams that don't match up are #7 LaS and #9 St. B.

Very interesting, thanks.

[billiken_roy]

Dobbs never played in the A10.  we were in a much tougher conference usa at that time.   the A10 is no where near the conference CUSA was back in those days.  Donnie was bigger than 6'2" but probably wasn't 6'5".   cant compare most anyone to Dobbs as he was an extremely savvy player that knew how to use his body and positioning to do the job like just about no one I have ever seen since.   I would love Bess to compare and play like Donnie Dobbs.  

[CBFan]

36 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

Agree with your post CBFan.  Free throws are normally huge in a game.  And how many front end of one and one's have we missed this year?  Yes we are hitting 65%, but front end misses don't get captured in that stat.

I think you can almost include Bess in your discussion of post players.  From what I read in the East Lansing newspapers when he transferred, he did not have the skill set to be a guard at MSU and was undersized as a 4 in the Big Ten.  But he won't  be undersized at the 4 in the A-10.  He is listed at 6'5".  [What was Donnie Dobbs?  6'2"?  I remember a story Spoon told about Dobbs, how when recruited Donnie, he was 6'4", but apparently there was some 'shrinkage' by the time he traveled east to SLU.]

Two other wild cards are returning players, and injuries.  The list of current players who may or may not return include:  Bishop, Gillmann, Hines, Johnson, Moore, Neufeld, Psimitis, Roby and Welmer.  Until they make their decisions, speculation on starters, rotation, etc. is premature.  Irregardless of what some of the MBM's in the know state, no player has stated he definitely is leaving.  We also have two injured players on next season's roster, Foreman and Goodwin.  Will they be 100% by tip off? Any delay in full practice will hinder their development in Coach's system.

Thank you for the information about Bess I did not know where he would play.  Evans was 6' 5" and played the post well.  Dobbs was only 6' 2" and played well.  Jefferey Harris at 6' 4" was another good post player.  I remember the coach spoon show was hosted by Jack Buck, what a great show that was with those two and a lot of lines similar to the Spoon line about Dobbs size came out of that show.  Those were good years to be a bills fan.

[kshoe]

12 hours ago, BillsBeliever!!! said:

Number 3 very well could be a big factor. If one of them transfers then we can get a big guy for down low.

Seems like that is covered with #4 from Old Guy.

The difference in success next year whether MN and AG are on the team or whether we only have 11 scholarship players in negligible. Neither are contributing this year on one of the worst teams in our history so there is no reason to believe they can contribute next year when we are significantly better. By the way, I'd be very surprised if either are back next year. No inside info, but you'd have to be blind not to see that writing on the wall.

[3star_recruit]

2 hours ago, CBFan said:

Great post Pistol here is my opinion however I will point out that I am the least knowledgeable on players on this site but for me it is fun to talk about.

1) Free throws will probably be an issue and will cost next seasons team some frustrating losses if we have bigs in that shoot a low percentage.  Reggie is a example of bigs and free throw frustration.  There are guys that I trust such as Johnson, Moore, Roby, Bishop in late game situations but if they are defending a 1 or 2 possession lead under a minute can these guys defend enough in the post and I would say probably not.

2) Foul trouble, I believe the team is deeper next season and can endure some foul trouble.  This season Reggie is our only post player and when Reggie gets in foul trouble there is very little post presence.  Next season we will have French and Foreman and I think Johnson has shown he can change shots by his shot blocking so at least there is a little more depth.  The guard position is much deeper with the addition of Goodwin and Graves and I trust Roby and Bishop to fill in with quality minutes when guards in foul trouble.

3) Post presence, covered some of it with foul trouble I really like Foreman and French and I think Johnson could play in that area.  Coach Spoonhour's teams did not have much of a post presence with Robinson and Pederson but was able to dance with a great shooting team however when that team met up with a post presence in the big dance there were problems.

Happy Friday everyone

Post players are one thing. The larger problem is four of our five projected starters are miserable free throw shooters, Goodwin and Bess included. That's a disaster waiting to happen. We should be hoping one of more of Bishop/Roby/Johnson step it up and win a starting spot.

[HoosierPal]

1 hour ago, billiken_roy said:

Dobbs never played in the A10.  we were in a much tougher conference usa at that time.   the A10 is no where near the conference CUSA was back in those days.  Donnie was bigger than 6'2" but probably wasn't 6'5".   cant compare most anyone to Dobbs as he was an extremely savvy player that knew how to use his body and positioning to do the job like just about no one I have ever seen since.   I would love Bess to compare and play like Donnie Dobbs.  

Dobbs stated he closer to 6' 1 1/2" than 6'2" - unless Spoon was lieing at a Billiken Club meeting. I'll take Spoon's statement over yours.

Dobb's biggest asset was, well, his ASSet.  He knew how to use it under the hoop.  I agree Dobbs was unique and yes, if Bess could wear his shoes it would be wonderful.

 

[HoosierPal]

58 minutes ago, CBFan said:

Thank you for the information about Bess I did not know where he would play.  Evans was 6' 5" and played the post well.  Dobbs was only 6' 2" and played well.  Jefferey Harris at 6' 4" was another good post player.  I remember the coach spoon show was hosted by Jack Buck, what a great show that was with those two and a lot of lines similar to the Spoon line about Dobbs size came out of that show.  Those were good years to be a bills fan.

Just in case uncle jack or Soderballs accuses me of making up this information on Bess, here is the article where it came from.

http://www.mlive.com/spartans/index.ssf/2016/03/michigan_state_forward_marvin.htm

 

 

[billiken_roy]

14 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

Dobbs stated he closer to 6' 1 1/2" than 6'2" - unless Spoon was lieing at a Billiken Club meeting. I'll take Spoon's statement over yours.

Dobb's biggest asset was, well, his ASSet.  He knew how to use it under the hoop.  I agree Dobbs was unique and yes, if Bess could wear his shoes it would be wonderful.

 

spoon was the all time champion of embellishment.   I sat with Donnie Dobbs family at the conference tourney in Cincinnati and Donnie would come to talk to us after every game, i.e. I stood next to Donnie Dobbs on a number of occasions that week.   he was closer to 6'4" than 6'1". 

[almaman]

6'4" was good enough for the wow factor then and now. He seemed every bit of that when he performed imo.