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St. J over the Bills by 2


The Wiz

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SLU.......................................................................St.J

.D-.................................Overall............................C+

.....................................Offense

.F-...................................PPG................................D+

F/ D+ / F+........................Slash..............................D- / F+/ F+

.F+.................................Off Reb............................B-

.C-..................................TOs..................................B+

....................................Defense

.C+..................................PPG.................................D+

..D+/ D............................Slash................................C/ D

..C-.............................Def Reb.................................C-

.F+..............................Opp TOs...............................D+

Trending up....Def FG%

Trending down.....FT%

We are actually trending down in Off PPG too, but it doesn't show. We are 5th worst in the the nation and in the last 3 games we are 2nd worst in the nation in PPG. Why doesn't it show we are trending down in this area?....Time for my stat quote of the season....

You can't trend down when you are at the bottom.

Overall these 2 teams are similar...weak on both sides of the ball ..I would give us a slight edge on D and a coin flip on O....The only real advantage they have on us is Off Reb and TOs.

On a different note, it doesn't look promising for St J either as they have been hit by the injury bug. They have lost 4 players for the season including their 2 top scorers. This was a tough game to handicap as 2 of those players were injured in the last 10  days and St J is still trying to adjust.  I have adjusted my model for this game but there may be a larger deviation than normal. Demery and Brown are now their leading scorers and will try to pick up the slack but St J is hurting at the guard position.

Bottomline....We match up with this team. I think we can win this game if we can shoot the Billiken way.....41/35/66 and keep the TOs even. This will be a close game ...no dead spots of  5+ min without a basket.  Give  a full 40 min effort and it's ours.

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Yes it is a winnable game, let's hope it happens. Unfortunately that is exactly what St. Joseph's players and fans are thinking about this game, it is a winnable game for them as well. At this stage in the season nothing is likely to be easy for us, let's hope we can come out with our A game this time and roll over St. Joseph's.

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Well that was interesting. I feel pretty good about the spread being only 3 off in a game that was highly unpredictable. The only thing consistent in this game was inconsistency. . Inconsistency is a common characteristic among bad teams and we had plenty of that.  We were up 12 then late in the 2nd half down 13 and then we come back to win ...a real roller coaster.

So what happened at the very end?  What was going on that led to that layup by the Hawks with time running out that iced up a loss? I can't explain it ...so I will let Coach Martelli explain it....."We didn't think"

OK...now it's my turn to explain what happened. We didn't have a great game . We had a Billiken game. In the post above, I mentioned we needed to shoot 41 /35 /66...we actually shot 40/ 35/ 63...that is a Billiken slash line...In other words we did what we were supposed to do. For me the key stat in this game that lead to the win was TO differential...We had an excellent TO  number with 9....they had a decent 12...TO differential was 3 which was worth 6 pts to the Bills.  If fact, had we had even 1 more TO we lose the game.

Bottom line...Not a pretty win and not a good opponent....but still a good win...Any conference win is a good win. Remember we have not been favored in any conference game and we will not be favored in any game  going forward.  We have won 5 games just on grit. Every win has been a struggle...Every win has been down to the wire.  Tip o' the Bills cap to Ford and the team for doing so much with so little.

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