Being competitive

[The Wiz]

This post was triggered by the NC St. thread and how it translates to the Bills next year. 

Being competitive is a relative term in NCAA basketball. ....Depends on what league you are in.  In the case of NC St (14-13...3-11) they are a bottomfeeder. They are a bottomfeeder because they are in the ACC an A+ conference. They grade out at B....In the A-10 they would be about the same as St.B fighting for a 4-6th spot. and having a decent year. Same goes for TX and OK in the B12 another A+ conference.  TX (10-16...4-9) and OK (9-16 ...3-10). Both these teams are a B+ and would be fighting for a 3-5 spot in the A-10.  The point is that you have to be within 2 steps of conference grade to be competitive.. These teams are not and are having disastrous years. Even the miracle worker Shaka can't seem to work his magic.  The problem is these good teams are always going up against Sweet 16 competition.....B12  Ks , WV , Bay... and ...ACC ...NC , Duke, Lou....In both leagues  there are no bad teams. The next coaches will be pretty much doomed to the same fate.

Here is what  the competitive chart looks like. ...

Within 2 steps of the league grade.(eg B+ vs B- )......lightly competitive...you can beat the   majority of the lower part of the league...Battle the upper part .win a game or 2 from the upper

Within 1 step of the league ( eg B vs B- )....fairly competitive....Win almost all the lower teams...battle the upper teams ..win a few upper

Team = league.....Competitive....beat everybody in the lower half...Battle for the league top spots but fall short

Exceed league average....Conf winners come from here...if there is only 1 exceed ...that's your winner...if more than one the ...the best grade will take the conference.

In the case of the Bills we are not steps away... we are over 2 letter grades away ( B vs D- ) Yet we have 4 conference wins...a tip o' the cap to Ford and the team for an outstanding effort. This chart shows how amazing it is to win one much less 4 games.

So what does this mean for next year? History has shown , at least on my system, that when you have a complete turn over ie 5 or more players.. your maximum  improvement is 2 full letter grades.  Let me emphasize, this is not a guarantee but a best case scenario.  I know there are some here on the board who think we are going to the FF next year...it is possible but not probable. Realistically, we will probably finish this year at D-. ...which means we have a chance to be at B- next year ...which means we could be Fairly competitive on the above chart. ...This assumes we will finish at D- this year (most likely) and that the A-10 stays at B ( it has averaged B+ over the years)

Why can't we do better than B- next year with all the great players?  There are a lot of variables that have to fall into place for us to exceed the max and become an outlier. 

New players...Have to gel as a team....learn the Ford system...adjust to the size and up tempo of the college game...adapt to school life...

Other variables...injuries...playing time / expectations.....the hype is over done (not everyone is going to the NBA)...A-10 gets better and finally luck

There are other factors but you get the idea...If we master a lot of the factors we get our 2 letter jump...if we meet them all we exceed and become an outlier and Dance. 

Bottomline....No matter what happens, things will be a lot better next year....tick...tick...tick...3 weeks

 

[BillsBeliever!!!]

Wiz tell me if you agree with me here. So this year we probably are a D- team, best case scenario D. Next year, we finish in the top 5 Atlantic 10, along with VCU, Dayton, LaSalle, and one other. If we end up a B-, we might make the NIT. If we get a B we defiantly are a bubble team/ NIT team. If we get B+ or above, we are Dancing in march. I think it is most likely that we are an NIT middle seed team, and I would love that to happen. Maybe we can win it like GW did last year.

In the 2018-19 season, we go dancing, are possibly a top 25 team, and have a good chance to win the A10 title and tournament. 

 

 

[The Wiz]

45 minutes ago, BillsBeliever!!! said:

Wiz tell me if you agree with me here. So this year we probably are a D- team, best case scenario D. Next year, we finish in the top 5 Atlantic 10, along with VCU, Dayton, LaSalle, and one other. If we end up a B-, we might make the NIT. If we get a B we defiantly are a bubble team/ NIT team. If we get B+ or above, we are Dancing in march. I think it is most likely that we are an NIT middle seed team, and I would love that to happen. Maybe we can win it like GW did last year.

In the 2018-19 season, we go dancing, are possibly a top 25 team, and have a good chance to win the A10 title and tournament. 

 

 

A- and above  = Dancing

B+ plus a winning record = NIT

B = 3/4 go to NIT...the rest of the Bs go to CBI

B-  =  about a 1/3 go to CBI ...the rest go home

These aren't exact because  there is still some subjectivity left in the process but they are pretty close. The other factor that affects things are conference tourney upsets...if you have a lot of those you can push some deserving teams out. If all the conference winners win their tourneys you could have a B+ sneak in.

So not much chance of post season next year. 

After this season is over , we will have a final grade and a little more info to project for next year. 

We will know where we stand by the 1st week of Dec...the 8th game. Where ever we stand ...we won't be looking up at everybody.

[BillsBeliever!!!]

You really think that with 6 new players that are all much more talented than our current 6/7 cannot make the CBI or NIT??? I think that the team will at least be more fun to watch since the slow pace that we have been playing isn't exactly Ford's style of play.

I wouldn't be surprised if we had a legitimate chance of making March Madness. 

[The Wiz]

22 minutes ago, BillsBeliever!!! said:

You really think that with 6 new players that are all much more talented than our current 6/7 cannot make the CBI or NIT??? I think that the team will at least be more fun to watch since the slow pace that we have been playing isn't exactly Ford's style of play.

I wouldn't be surprised if we had a legitimate chance of making March Madness. 

As I said in the original post for the Bills to reach B- (the max) all of those things need to go right and do so by the 8th game since you are pretty much set by then.. If we got to B- by game 8  we would then need to improve to B by the start of conference play to have a chance to finish at B+ at the end of the season. A lot of ifs to get to the NIT.

Bottomline ..Most probable at this point if things work out...1/3 chance of going to CBI...which if you think about it is pretty amazing considering we are D- now and the 12th worst offense in the nation lagging behind Chicago St (3-21) I don't think you realize how deep a hole we are in. That's why every win at this point is a miracle. 

[BillsBeliever!!!]

8 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

As I said in the original post for the Bills to reach B- (the max) all of those things need to go right and do so by the 8th game since you are pretty much set by then.. If we got to B- by game 8  we would then need to improve to B by the start of conference play to have a chance to finish at B+ at the end of the season. A lot of ifs to get to the NIT.

Bottomline ..Most probable at this point if things work out...1/3 chance of going to CBI...which if you think about it is pretty amazing considering we are D- now and the 12th worst offense in the nation lagging behind Chicago St (3-21) I don't think you realize how deep a hole we are in. That's why every win at this point is a miracle. 

I disagree.

1) We were predicted to be last in the A10 with 0 conference wins (20!!! percent chance to be winless), and that was before we lost Bishop and had to use a walk-on as our starting PG. Now we are at 4 wins, with 2-3 decent chances to win left. Ford is a pretty good coach. So we have starting making process of getting out of that hole. 

2) Next year, (as you know), we get 3 transfers that are Juniors. This will be important to make the CBI / NIT / NCAA because of their experience playing on good teams, and against good teams. There is also Graves who is a much needed PG. We also have to 50th recruiting class (2nd in A10) even though we have only 2 recruits. SLU has never had this kind of talent (except maybe the Jett-Loe squad?)

3) Ford has this team crazily motivated

And one question:

WHAT DOES BEING THE 12TH WORST OFFENSE HAVE TO DO WITH NEXT YEAR

 

[Billiken Rich]

I am not the wiz.  I have been a Billikens fan and have been walking the planet long enough to realize that even good transfers and freshmen take time to develope.  H waldman, Maurice Jeffers, Jamal Johnson, Reggie Bryant, Kenny brown, Ashe youcobou.  I'm forgetting tons.  Our last core of amazing freshmen players Jett, Evans, and company took a while to develop too.  Hope you are right but usually those junior transfer take a year to put it together .......

[Old guy]

All I can add to this discussion is that absolutely no one can predict the future with any level of confidence or reliability. That said, it is possible to approximate the possible future outcomes for next season by applying probabilistic methods and statistics, which is what the Wiz does, and does very nicely at that. So, there you are, we are justified in anticipating a good deal of improvement for next year, how much exactly no one knows yet. Please note I am not emphasizing the negative side.

For those that may take this as a negative comment let me point out that after the first 8-10 games this season the probabilities were very low for us to win much more than 5 or 6 games this year, yet we have won 9 games so far and the season is not over yet. It is not unlikely that we may win 10 games, a bit less likely but not too unlikely that we may win 11 games, and not quite likely, at this time, that we will win more than that.

Although the probabilistic approach does indicates there is not a good chance next season for getting a slot in the dance, maybe just maybe (cross your fingers, pray, and trust Ford) the  magic may happen and we may do a lot better than the probabilities anticipate, a repeat of what we have done this year. Let me emphasize that this year we have played with a depleted, injury plagued team that was favored by the experts not to win a single game in conference... Ford and the team have done wonders this year. With this in mind there is no reason to totally rule out doing better than we are probabilitically expected to do next year. We must also realize that at this time there is no reason at all to assume that we will play at the NCAA, NIT, or CBI tournaments. The future cannot be predicted, but it is easier to live with if you look at the glass being half full. Next season promises to be interesting to say the least. 

It is good to keep in mind that disappointments may come when you find out the glass is not half full, but in fact it is half empty, such is life. The probabilistic approach for next season is telling us the glass is filled over the 50% mark, it is not clear how much more. We will find out what the answer is in due course.

Finally a disclaimer, before the current season started I posted that this season we would go 50-50, 15 wins is what I said. I was wrong, I looked at the glass being half full, when it was a lot less full than that. I was too optimistic. Who cares? I am happy that we have done better than the probabilities indicated before we started conference play. Go Bills!

[billiken_roy]

6 hours ago, BillsBeliever!!! said:

You really think that with 6 new players that are all much more talented than our current 6/7 cannot make the CBI or NIT??? I think that the team will at least be more fun to watch since the slow pace that we have been playing isn't exactly Ford's style of play.

I wouldn't be surprised if we had a legitimate chance of making March Madness. 

the problem is the talent between our transfers and new freshmen and the existing returning roster is large.   the holes that will be created by mismatches and talent shortage will hurt.   likely the best option will be to only play our six newbies as much as possible and that will create fatigue.   i wouldnt be surprised of beyond our six newbies nobody averages 10 minutes a game.   that scenario is likely to produce losses and thus give us wiz's B - team.   

we really need a couple more high quality players on the roster.   can johnson, welmer, roby and hines/bishop give us those two spots?  well maybe the billikens finally get some sort of miracle.  but i wouldnt bet the farm on it.   the dayton game was very telling of what we really have.   

old guy to declare ford has done "wonders" imo is a little over the top.   my gosh we are still battling for last place.  we likely wont win another game and end up with a horrible record.    any connection to success and this season is a real stretch.   not a knock on ford.   just a realistic view of where we actually are.   next year the ford watch actually begins.   until then solely based on his recruiting i am optimistic.  

[slufanskip]

11 hours ago, The Wiz said:

This post was triggered by the NC St. thread and how it translates to the Bills next year. 

Being competitive is a relative term in NCAA basketball. ....Depends on what league you are in.  In the case of NC St (14-13...3-11) they are a bottomfeeder. They are a bottomfeeder because they are in the ACC an A+ conference. They grade out at B....In the A-10 they would be about the same as St.B fighting for a 4-6th spot. and having a decent year. Same goes for TX and OK in the B12 another A+ conference.  TX (10-16...4-9) and OK (9-16 ...3-10). Both these teams are a B+ and would be fighting for a 3-5 spot in the A-10.  The point is that you have to be within 2 steps of conference grade to be competitive.. These teams are not and are having disastrous years. Even the miracle worker Shaka can't seem to work his magic.  The problem is these good teams are always going up against Sweet 16 competition.....B12  Ks , WV , Bay... and ...ACC ...NC , Duke, Lou....In both leagues  there are no bad teams. The next coaches will be pretty much doomed to the same fate.

Here is what  the competitive chart looks like. ...

Within 2 steps of the league grade.(eg B+ vs B- )......lightly competitive...you can beat the   majority of the lower part of the league...Battle the upper part .win a game or 2 from the upper

Within 1 step of the league ( eg B vs B- )....fairly competitive....Win almost all the lower teams...battle the upper teams ..win a few upper

Team = league.....Competitive....beat everybody in the lower half...Battle for the league top spots but fall short

Exceed league average....Conf winners come from here...if there is only 1 exceed ...that's your winner...if more than one the ...the best grade will take the conference.

In the case of the Bills we are not steps away... we are over 2 letter grades away ( B vs D- ) Yet we have 4 conference wins...a tip o' the cap to Ford and the team for an outstanding effort. This chart shows how amazing it is to win one much less 4 games.

So what does this mean for next year? History has shown , at least on my system, that when you have a complete turn over ie 5 or more players.. your maximum  improvement is 2 full letter grades.  Let me emphasize, this is not a guarantee but a best case scenario.  I know there are some here on the board who think we are going to the FF next year...it is possible but not probable. Realistically, we will probably finish this year at D-. ...which means we have a chance to be at B- next year ...which means we could be Fairly competitive on the above chart. ...This assumes we will finish at D- this year (most likely) and that the A-10 stays at B ( it has averaged B+ over the years)

Why can't we do better than B- next year with all the great players?  There are a lot of variables that have to fall into place for us to exceed the max and become an outlier. 

New players...Have to gel as a team....learn the Ford system...adjust to the size and up tempo of the college game...adapt to school life...

Other variables...injuries...playing time / expectations.....the hype is over done (not everyone is going to the NBA)...A-10 gets better and finally luck

There are other factors but you get the idea...If we master a lot of the factors we get our 2 letter jump...if we meet them all we exceed and become an outlier and Dance. 

Bottomline....No matter what happens, things will be a lot better next year....tick...tick...tick...3 weeks

 

4 of our 6 new players have already done most of if not all of what you list under new players. You could argue they haven't gelled as a team, but you could also argue they have after practicing together for a year.

Who thinks we are making the final 4 next year. I think some think we could dance but most would be very pleased with that result. I think it's possible but agree a lot has to fall into place.

[slufanskip]

10 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

the problem is the talent between our transfers and new freshmen and the existing returning roster is large.   the wholes that will be created by mismatches and talent shortage will hurt.   likely the best option will be to only play our six newbies as much as possible and that will create fatigue.   i wouldnt be surprised of beyond our six newbies nobody averages 10 minutes a game.   that scenario is likely to produce losses and thus give us wiz's B - team.   

we really need a couple more high quality players on the roster.   can johnson, welmer, roby and hines/bishop give us those two spots?  well maybe the billikens finally get some sort of miracle.  but i wouldnt bet the farm on it.   the dayton game was very telling of what we really have.   

I think you misjudge Roby and Welmer and maybe Bishop. You seem to be trying to compare them to starters on a good team. We don't need them to be that. We need them to be good solid role players who play 10-20 mpg. I wonder how Rob Loe, or Jett, or McCall would have done playing on this team. Roby is not a bad player, he's just not a star. He could play a role on any A10 team this year.

[DoctorB]

I'll weigh in here.  First I am struck by the amount of improvement with a minimal roster, this year.  We are lightyears ahead of just 2 months ago.  that should encourage everyone, especially if this fall we aren't so great, at first.  Second, I'm pretty patient about next year, and actually even in 2 years.  But let's focus on 2017-18:  I do think we can be pretty competitive in the A10 right away -- meaning, at least .500 but learning how to win on the road.  I've also watched the new guys a fair amount and although I really cannot predict a rotation, I'd respond to Roy by saying Henriquez is a scorer who might come right in and lead the team with well over 10 a game.  Goodwin might too, if he is as good as advertised.  I'm just not sure about him and French, though the eye test on Youtube is promising.  By the way:  Roby ain't going anywhere either; he leads the team in scoring this year,... Third: what is our OC schedule like this fall??  Because it will be against the really good teams, especially on the road, that will tell us whether we have any chance for the NIT, let alone the Dance.  Like, how do we do against a Wichita State? or in Dayton, on a long weekend in Philly, or against even a team like BYU on neutral court or Kansas State at Chaifetz?  Those type of games will be very revealing, very early...

Main point: Can't wait to see the new team, but I'll try to stay patient and watch the program grow, slowly but surely... even if we lose early to a Samford or SIUC... 

[The Wiz]

5 hours ago, BillsBeliever!!! said:

I disagree.

1) We were predicted to be last in the A10 with 0 conference wins (20!!! percent chance to be winless), and that was before we lost Bishop and had to use a walk-on as our starting PG. Now we are at 4 wins, with 2-3 decent chances to win left. Ford is a pretty good coach. So we have starting making process of getting out of that hole. 

2) Next year, (as you know), we get 3 transfers that are Juniors. This will be important to make the CBI / NIT / NCAA because of their experience playing on good teams, and against good teams. There is also Graves who is a much needed PG. We also have to 50th recruiting class (2nd in A10) even though we have only 2 recruits. SLU has never had this kind of talent (except maybe the Jett-Loe squad?)

3) Ford has this team crazily motivated

And one question:

WHAT DOES BEING THE 12TH WORST OFFENSE HAVE TO DO WITH NEXT YEAR

 

What does it have to do with next year?....To summarize what broy said....half of next year's team will be made up of this year's team.  Even if we adapt and gel next year and stay injury free we still have the dilution of talent ..new mixed with old that will dilute us down a bit.. Not saying we will be bad next year...just that is not probable to go from bad to great...it is possible to go from bad to pretty good.

[Taj79]

Believer --- you are a homer.  Which before you get p*ssed about name-calling,is a good thing.  All I'll say is worry about next year next year ---- or at least this off-season.

Today's PD article is true in that here come the big boys. Dayton obliterated us. No contest. Never close.  You want to throw that away as an aberration, you can do that.  It would not be wise but it is up to you.  Today is Fordham ---- definitely not a big boy but definitely on the road, where we are 1 and 7.  Then at VCU. Look out!   The two home games against beatable teams.  Then close out in Richmond.  All are above us except St.Joe's.  So the gauntlet to the off season is clear.

We all have shared similar expectations over the years with transfers and freshmen.  All I can say is expectations and realities canbe two different and polar opposites.  Don't lose the enthusiasm, we shall see.  

A loss today will all but guarantee the PIG.  Interesting that in that PD article, Roby says exactly what I have said ---- success is two more wins and avoiding the PIG.  Very interesting.  

[billiken_roy]

5 minutes ago, DoctorB said:

I'll weigh in here.  First I am struck by the amount of improvement with a minimal roster, this year.  We are lightyears ahead of just 2 months ago.  that should encourage everyone, especially if this fall we aren't so great, at first.  Second, I'm pretty patient about next year, and actually even in 2 years.  But let's focus on 2017-18:  I do think we can be pretty competitive in the A10 right away -- meaning, at least .500 but learning how to win on the road.  I've also watched the new guys a fair amount and although I really cannot predict a rotation, I'd respond to Roy by saying Henriquez is a scorer who might come right in and lead the team with well over 10 a game.  Goodwin might too, if he is as good as advertised.  I'm just not sure about him and French, though the eye test on Youtube is promising.  By the way:  Roby ain't going anywhere either; he leads the team in scoring this year,... Third: what is our OC schedule like this fall??  Because it will be against the really good teams, especially on the road, that will tell us whether we have any chance for the NIT, let alone the Dance.  Like, how do we do against a Wichita State? or in Dayton, on a long weekend in Philly, or against even a team like BYU on neutral court or Kansas State at Chaifetz?  Those type of games will be very revealing, very early...

Main point: Can't wait to see the new team, but I'll try to stay patient and watch the program grow, slowly but surely... even if we lose early to a Samford or SIUC... 

Doctor B, it seems for the most part you are agreeing with me.

to everyone else, dont judge via games against north carolina at&t or duquesne.   judge on the game vs dayton.   my points were to combat the thoughts we are an ncaa tourney team next year.   to be that, we need to at least be dayton who is likely a 7-10 seed this year.   i.e. barely getting an at large berth.   had miller played his main rotation to the end of the game we would have lost by 50.   this roster is not good.   what success we have had has been versus other bad teams.   

not sure wher you are going with telling me about our newbies.    i have been nothing but positive about our newbies.   i was the first to champion goodwin.   i have nothing but awesome about the transfers.   and now we get amazing stats coming from french high school games.    thus, i predict exhausted 35+ mpg newbies will be more productive than any of our current players.   i.e. 10 mpg for our current roster max.  Hey if i am wrong, either our current roster improved way more than i expect it to, or our newbies arent as good as i expect.   

[DoctorB]

7 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

Doctor B, it seems for the most part you are agreeing with me.

sorry to be unclear, I was only responding there to your question about leading scorers. Was not calling you out or anything;  I basically agree with you, we were dreadful against Dayton and nobody should forget it (it was a home game by the way!).  I am very high on the team but it's a process.  I think 2018-19 could be a coming out year, not so much next year.  But boy, it'll be fun and I can't wait.  I also believe your point about our 3 best players right now is really a good one:  DR, EW, And JJ will be much better playing 15 minutes or 20, than trying to play 40!  Much, much better;  and our bench next year will be better than our starters this year.  think about it...

On a related note (may have been covered elsewhere): is there any real sense that Gordon is thinking about being a one and done player, or try for 2-3 years at SLU?  I'm just wondering how good he can be, and wondering how committed to higher education he really is.  I have no inside info here, just wondering if we can expect to see him blossom or what?

[cheeseman]

I think it is good to dream but like all dreams you do eventually wake up. Will we be better next year no doubt. The real question is by how much. I am like Rich- lived long enough to have seen high hopes dashed by reality more often then not. I agree trying to predict won/lost records for next year is a fun activity but that is all. I plan to wait and see, enjoy the improvement that is certain whatever it is and hope for Ford's continued recruiting success. 

[The Wiz]

38 minutes ago, slufanskip said:

4 of our 6 new players have already done most of if not all of what you list under new players. You could argue they haven't gelled as a team, but you could also argue they have after practicing together for a year.

Who thinks we are making the final 4 next year. I think some think we could dance but most would be very pleased with that result. I think it's possible but agree a lot has to fall into place.

Good point that 2/3 of new guys are here already and adapting and gelling....Definitely an advantage over coming in cold. But practicing particularly as the "other" team (the team we are playing next) is not the same as real game experience. . In practice you get unlimited minutes. You can only truly adapt and gel when you are in a real game that counts with a clock running and paying fans in the stands. In a tie game with 7 seconds left ...do you take the shot or pass it ...and if you pass it ...pass it to who and where will they be....and do you remember the play in this situation etc etc....Real game time experience ...real adapting and gelling....It takes time spent  with your current teammates to get there ...

I think we have the right pieces to the puzzle...it just will take some time to put it together. If you don't have the right pieces you can never put the puzzle together.

[Old guy]

I will stand by what I said, I think the 9 wins so far this year are above and beyond what the probabilities at the beginning of conference play indicated. This is a very significant achievement for Ford and the team, period. I really do not care if we are currently fighting to get out of the bottom spot in A10. Achievement has little to do with ranking as far as I am concerned.  

I am aware the team next year will be different, and so will be what can be achieved with this "new" team. Probabilities based upon prior year performance (meaning this season) may well be erroneous. I am aware there will be difficulties in getting the team to gel and to play well together, holes in talent levels, etc... I choose to believe Ford will be able to deal with these issues.

I stand by my post, next year we will definitely be a better team than this year. The probabilities say we will not get to play in the NCAA, NIT, or CBI tournaments, but I do not think these numbers are carved in stone. We might go up to this level of play, if any number of factors favor us. The numbers never tell the whole story.

[BillsBeliever!!!]

2 hours ago, billiken_roy said:

the problem is the talent between our transfers and new freshmen and the existing returning roster is large.   the holes that will be created by mismatches and talent shortage will hurt.   likely the best option will be to only play our six newbies as much as possible and that will create fatigue.   i wouldnt be surprised of beyond our six newbies nobody averages 10 minutes a game.   that scenario is likely to produce losses and thus give us wiz's B - team.   

we really need a couple more high quality players on the roster.   can johnson, welmer, roby and hines/bishop give us those two spots?  well maybe the billikens finally get some sort of miracle.  but i wouldnt bet the farm on it.   the dayton game was very telling of what we really have.   

old guy to declare ford has done "wonders" imo is a little over the top.   my gosh we are still battling for last place.  we likely wont win another game and end up with a horrible record.    any connection to success and this season is a real stretch.   not a knock on ford.   just a realistic view of where we actually are.   next year the ford watch actually begins.   until then solely based on his recruiting i am optimistic.  

Next year Roby is a senior, and he is one of our best shooters this year. 

Johnson, Welmer, and Zeke all have futures that could be pretty good from what I've watched. 

With the 6 new guys, 3 more experienced and stronger Sophomores, and Roby as a senior, with Bishop/Hines/Gillman(ew)/Neufeldif they return 

 

[brianstl]

Which is harder to do, a three letter drop like we did two seasons ago or a two letter improvement?