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Dayton over The Bills by 17


The Wiz

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SLU.............................................................................Day

Offense

D-.....................................Overall Grade......................A-

F-.......................................PPG...................................C+

F / C- / D-..........................Slash..................................B+ / B / C-

F+......................................Off Reb...............................C

C-.......................................TOs....................................B+

F+.......................................Opp TOs............................B+

Defense

C+.......................................PPG...................................A

D+ /D...................................Slash.................................A- / A-

D+........................................Def Reb............................B

Trending up for The Bills.......FG%, 3pt %,  & Def Reb

Trending down.....Off Reb & Def FG%

It is now time for a reality check. Day is a tourney team. They have a nice offense. ...But ...It's all about the D. The one thing that the 4 conf wins have in common was we played against fair to partly cloudy defenses.  In other words , they left us alone and we scored. That will not happen against Dayton's shutdown D,,,as evidenced by the 46 pts we scored against them last time. But what about the trend line....We were already trending up at that point and they  stopped us cold. ...Well we are at home.....that's why it's only 17....  Yeah but we have seen them once already...Ford will be able to work his magic....Hard to out coach talent and depth.

Here is what we need to do to win.....Probably have another slash line like we did against Duq but mainly not have dead zones where there are no baskets for 5-10 min.  TOs limited to 11 with a neutral TO differential or better.  Finally score 63 pts...if we don't do that we have no chance.

Bottomline...Dayton depth goes about 3  players deeper than ours...We need to keep the game to a single digit deficit at the half...If we fall behind this team by much it will be almost impossible to come back because of their depth and defense.

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13 minutes ago, BillsBeliever!!! said:

So Wiz, if we beat Dayton will we become a D or D+ team? :) 

Well the long ambiguous answer is it depends on what the other 349 teams do as everything is interdependent.  The short answer is ...yes because it would be a major upset. 

Using the trend model where everything goes the Bills way the spread narrows to 7 which is still a lot for things trending your way.  

Using the deck of cards ....shuffle and deal out 5 cards .... If you get 2 pair ....the Bills win.

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I think the only way we can compete in this game is go small with Welmer at the 5.  If we go back to feeding Reggie in the paint, then we lose by 20+. 

Play AH, MC, DR, JJ, and EW with Zeke off the bench. 

As soon as Reggie is forced to play Kendall Pollard's game, all is lost.

 

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Stranger things have happened in our long history with YouDee.  Can't see it happening but would love it.  Dayton marked the return of Josh Cunningham to the floor in the Rhode Island game.  Cunningham broke his ankle in  the second game of the season and has been out since with surgery and rehab.  It was rather unimpressive a return ---- two minutes played and three fouls.  The rest were zeros (which is his number by the way).  I think Dayton needs to use the six remaining conference games and the conference tournament to get the kid in game shape for the Dance.  Again, they lose Smith, Pollard, Kyle Davis and Cooke this year and Cunningham, along with the late Steve McElvane, would have given Archie his best team ever at Dayton.  They need Cunningham for thi syear -- not next -- when all those seniors go bye-bye.

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3 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

With Dayton losing their 3 best players and their glue guy and Gottfriend virtually nothing out of his talent at NC State, the time has never been better for Archie Miller to jump ship.

I agree.  Wouldn't Illinois or Missouri salivate at the thought of Miller on their sidelines?

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37 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

With Dayton losing their 3 best players and their glue guy and Gottfried getting virtually nothing out of his talent at NC State, the time has never been better for Archie Miller to jump ship.

Archie has been particular about his coaching options, knowing that he has a good situation at UD. With that said, based on the reasons you mentioned above, this offseason might be his best chance to strike while the iron's hot, assuming an acceptable job opens up. I'd argue that Illinois would qualify as such a job, while Mizzou would not.

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"The Flyers have held SLU to 46, 49, 37, 44 and 45 points in the last five meetings." - From Stu's write-up today. Woof.

As for Miller, I hope he stays. I like him, and I think he's a good coach. A good Dayton is good for the A10, and a good Dayton is good for the closest thing we have to a rivalry these days. We're about to be good again, and I'd hate to see them fall off suddenly. Yes, this is all hard to admit, but it's true.

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2 minutes ago, Pistol said:

"The Flyers have held SLU to 46, 49, 37, 44 and 45 points in the last five meetings." - From Stu's write-up today. Woof.

As for Miller, I hope he stays. I like him, and I think he's a good coach. A good Dayton is good for the A10, and a good Dayton is good for the closest thing we have to a rivalry these days. We're about to be good again, and I'd hate to see them fall off suddenly. Yes, this is all hard to admit, but it's true.

I would think that Dayton will be able to find the money to match most offers.  I think the speculation is that he is making as much as Shaka was at VCU.  That was around $1.8 million.

I guess the big questions are does he like living in Dayton and does he think he can keep it going there?  He is losing a lot after this season, but the Greek Freak's brother Kostas Antetokoumpo will be eligible. I don't think he has had the overall recruiting success that his brother did at X.  Dayton is harder to recruit to than X was when Sean was there, but I thought there would have been a bigger bump in their recruiting after the Elite 8 run. A total of one 4 star in the 3 classes since.

You would think the Illini would definitely be interested.  If IU goes the way they have been going, Crean will be out.  They would be interested.  If Matta gets fired at OSU and it would be interesting.  Matta and the Millers have a long history.  You got to figure names like Mack and Cronin will be high on all those lists, too.

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11 minutes ago, brianstl said:

I would think that Dayton will be able to find the money to match most offers.  I think the speculation is that he is making as much as Shaka was at VCU.  That was around $1.8 million.

I guess the big questions are does he like living in Dayton and does he think he can keep it going there?  He is losing a lot after this season, but the Greek Freak's brother Kostas Antetokoumpo will be eligible. I don't think he has had the overall recruiting success that his brother did at X.  Dayton is harder to recruit to than X was when Sean was there, but I thought there would have been a bigger bump in their recruiting after the Elite 8 run. A total of one 4 star in the 3 classes since.

You would think the Illini would definitely be interested.  If IU goes the way they have been going, Crean will be out.  They would be interested.  If Matta gets fired at OSU and it would be interesting.  Matta and the Millers have a long history.  You got to figure names like Mack and Cronin will be high on all those lists, too.

I think Gottfried's hot seat at NC State is the one really firing up the Miller-might-leave chatter.

UD will be down a little bit next year, no question. They lose a lot of veteran experience. The incoming class is good but not special. The biggest loss, honestly, was Steve McElvene. If he hadn't died last year, UD would be top 25 right now and a real threat to go deep in March, and would be more solid next year, too. He was only going to be a sophomore.

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Dayton traditionally has not been a destination spot for anyone.  It has been a step on the ladder, a place a top assistant starts at to cut his teeth.  After the dark ages of Blackburn and Donoher (dark only because its ancient history), Dayton has plucked a series of "up-and-comers" from the ranks, starting with Jim O'Brien of Wheeling Jesuit College.  Then they took Ollie Purnell off the lower level ranks at Old Dominion.  Ollie used it to jump up to Clemson. Then they went with Brian Gregory, the lead recruiter and assitant at Michigan State under Izzo.  Brian used it to jump to Georgia Tech.  None of the three had what I would call sustained success at Dayton and I thought both Purnell and Gregory got going when the going was good.  Purnell moved (down?) to De Paul from Clemson and resigned in 2015.  Gregory got canned at Tech last year.

Along comes Archie off brother Sean's staff at Arizona.  The pattern essentially continued.  If Archie were to hit the road, I suspect YouDee would hire along the same lines --- promoting from within is not something they seem apt to do.  They also do not seem inclined to continue some sort of coaching tree lineage like Butler and Xavier does/did.  I can't see Bryce Drew or anyone with a rising star take a demotion from a Big Five conference to go to Dayton willingly.  It would have to be a Travis Ford like firing and even then, Dayton doesn't seem to relish retreads of any sort.  

Archie is the new Drew, the new Underwood, the new Shaka.  Hot-shot flavor of the month/year. This was supposed to be his year and I believe he was priming for the get-up-and-go.  This marks Archie's sixth year or so.  If he had Steve McElvane and Josh Cunningham to go with Scoochie, Pollard, Cooke and Kyle Davis, with a bench of Crosby, Mikesell, Miller, Williams and Darrell Davis,not to mention the Greek freak's brother --- they should have run the table in the A10.  Think about how hot he'd be then!!!!  But McElvane died; Cunningham got injured,and the freak was deemed ineligible this year.  Still he's #1 in the conference albeit not as spectacularly as he could have been.

Where woudl he go?  He's from Pittsburgh but the Pitt job was sowed up for the time being with Stallings.  Inopportunity there.  As someone said, Gottfried isn't doign well at NC State and Archie played there.  A good match?  I love Raleigh but you have UNC, Duke, Louisville and the rest of the ACC to contend with.  Call it a challenge Archie would accept.  Besides the Arizona gig (twice) he has stops in Ohio and Kentucky on his resume so a take over in Champaign might work.  Mizzou i highly doubt.  

Archie is signed through something like 2021 or 2023 at Dayton but I am sure the right people can buy that out.  I see Archie gone after this year.  He will NEVER be hotter and he's 38 and at a prime age to hit the big time and stay there for a while.

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