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Avoiding the PIG


Taj79

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Right now, we MIGHT be able to notch six wins IF we can hold the home court against the Joeys and La Salle.  That makes our main competition for such a spot to be Fordham and, less likely, Geedubya.  We are tied with Fordham so the question is can Fordham win two more games?  They are at Rhodey, at Duquesne and at La Salle while hosting Richmond and Geedubya. In conference,that's a opponets record of 31 - 29. Plus they have already lost at home to Duquesne.  Where do they find two more wins?  

Conversely,our road includes VCU, Dayton and Richmond which currently sit at 29 -7.  But we also have the Joeys and La Salle coming to town at 10 - 14.  Doable?  For those two home games, I think so.  Which will make Saturday's game in the Bronx very,very interesting.  Fordham is not the usual slouch, having beaten VCU at home and winnign at Davidson, at Umassand at St. Joes.

Geedubya on the other hand has five wins already and plays Umass and Mason at home while traveling to Fordham.  I see them with seven wins at least, maybe 8.

I think that is a nice target to take aim at, given where we came from.

 

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Not sure if I follow all of Taj's math above but it seems pretty clear to me that whoever wins the SLU/Fordham game next week will have a significant advantage when it comes to avoiding the play-in game. Not only do you get an extra win but you get the tie-breaker. Seems like that's 80% of the story.

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The bad news....we won't be favored in any more games this season.....

The good news ....Based on the trending model we have a decent chance to win 3 more games....Ford , St. J , & LaS....This assumes we play at the same level we have been playing at for the last few weeks.

There is no margin for error in those 3 games  ..TOs , poor shooting etc 

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27 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Wiz, it is refreshing when you separate yourself from the numbers and the probabilities and look at the trends and the people playing. Yes, it will not be easy but we can win 3 more games this season. 

But I haven't separated myself from the numbers and probabilities.....Trending model is a subset of the main model.

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-we have beaten Fordham twice in Rose Hill and once in NJ since we joined the conf, perhaps BAB is headed 'cross country to root us to a victory on Saturday

-I don't like our match up with their big center, in limited viewing he looks like a player, but we can worry about the Rams after we beat Dayton....please

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Wiz, let's just say that by talking about the trending model subset of your main model, you are adopting a more flexible probabilistic interpretation of likely future events than your usual way of seeing things. I am glad you have this trending model, you may have to use it more frequently this year.

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I would almost rather win the three games (Fordham, Saint Joe's, and LaSalle), but only get the 11 seed in the tourney. Heres why:

1) We play Duquesne (most likely) in the first game, which is easier than beating whoever the 7 seed ends up being

2) IF we win the first 2 games, I would rather take my chances with Rhode or Richmond than VCU or Dayton.

3) We won't have to play the number 1 seed until the championship game, if we or them are still in it

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40 minutes ago, BillsBeliever!!! said:

I would almost rather win the three games (Fordham, Saint Joe's, and LaSalle), but only get the 11 seed in the tourney. Heres why:

1) We play Duquesne (most likely) in the first game, which is easier than beating whoever the 7 seed ends up being

2) IF we win the first 2 games, I would rather take my chances with Rhode or Richmond than VCU or Dayton.

3) We won't have to play the number 1 seed until the championship game, if we or them are still in it

To win those 3 games get out your deck of cards again and shuffle. . I will give you a chance because the Bills are trending....Deuces are wild...Deal out 5 cards...if you get a straight....then the Bills win those 3 games.

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11 hours ago, Cowboy said:

-we have beaten Fordham twice in Rose Hill and once in NJ since we joined the conf

and I'll be at that game, I have a winning record when seeing the bills on the road/neutral court so no worries there. 

 

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10 hours ago, BillsBeliever!!! said:

I would almost rather win the three games (Fordham, Saint Joe's, and LaSalle), but only get the 11 seed in the tourney. Heres why:

1) We play Duquesne (most likely) in the first game, which is easier than beating whoever the 7 seed ends up being

2) IF we win the first 2 games, I would rather take my chances with Rhode or Richmond than VCU or Dayton.

3) We won't have to play the number 1 seed until the championship game, if we or them are still in it

You clearly are a believer. I love the improvement, but we're not good enough to be looking 2 or 3 games ahead in a tournament.

Two weeks ago, I thought getting double digit wins would be quite an accomplishment for this team. Getting out of the PIG would be just short of incredible.  Hats off to the coaches and the players for the improvement.     

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2 minutes ago, SShoe said:

You clearly are a believer. I love the improvement, but we're not good enough to be looking 2 or 3 games ahead in a tournament.

Two weeks ago, I thought getting double digit wins would be quite an accomplishment for this team. Getting out of the PIG would be just short of incredible.  Hats off to the coaches and the players for the improvement.     

I was thinking about the Chicago State game a few weeks ago, and how the Bills struggled mightily to eke out a win against a garbage opponent.  If you would've told me then that we'd be in a position to possibly avoid the PIG, I would've thought you were nuts.

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BAB is not going; neither am I.  The math above is simple .... I believe we must get to six wins to have a chance at the #10 spot.  In such a scenario, we could lose at Rose Hill and still finish #10 if Fordham counts a win against us at its lone win left.  Beating us alone would allow them to finish at 5 and 11.  We win two and we are 6 and 10 and it won't matter with head-to-head.  But Fordham would have to lose out and I can't see that happening right now. 

Fordham is not the Fordham of the usual past.  Chartnouy was A10 newcomer of the year last year and is a decent point.  Hawkins is an athletic grad transfer from EKU where he played for the current coach and came with him. Sengfelder and Anderson are decent and all of those average about 12 ppg.  Big center/  I guess you mean the  6'10" Czech sophomore.  He is more a Euro big/stretch four than a conventional big.  Fordham goes nine deep with guys getting over a quarter of play per game so deeper then us.  I don't think we can win this one but who knows.  Dayton I am ignoring so that would be a huge surprise. 

While some of kshoe's 80% solution is true, its not the whole story.  We could lose to the Rams and still take 10th but it would mean beating the two I mentioned at home and having Fordham lose all other games but ours. 

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I always like to avoid playing a team three times in one year --- especially if you've beaten them twice to that point (not the case with Duquesne of course).  I don't like hwo we match up with the Dooks.  That's all. 

The annual exercise in futility is trying to figure out in mid-February how this conference will play out down the stretch.  Worrying about who the 7 is or who the 6 is or whatever is futile.  it never works; too much variance with 14 teams where the 5 through 11 seeds are separated by two games.  That's why I think six wins is a decent goal and that avoiding the PIG is a huge measure of success.  I can ride off into the sunset with that.  The games are fun to watch.  Competitive.  And the future is bright.  My goals -- evaluating who can stay --- are done.  The rest is gravy.

Frankly, with St. Joe's loss of Kimball, I see them destined for the cellar.  A veritable first-to-worst for the Fighting Martellis. 

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15 hours ago, Cowboy said:

-we have beaten Fordham twice in Rose Hill and once in NJ since we joined the conf, perhaps BAB is headed 'cross country to root us to a victory on Saturday

-I don't like our match up with their big center, in limited viewing he looks like a player, but we can worry about the Rams after we beat Dayton....please

Regrettably there will be no trip to the City that Never Sleeps and the Beloved Borough of the Bronx thereof for yours truly this weekend. 

This being said, here's hoping the Billikens earn a big win below the stained glass windows of Rose Hill Gym.  SLU has won there in the past, but has lost twice in that historic venue, once when Bryant Dunston was playing for Fordham, with Kevin Lisch out for that game, and the other 2 years ago when Taj and I were seated right behind the SLU Bench.

After seeing this season's SLU team in person at Chaifetz Arena for the Rhode Island game, I have been pleasantly surprised by the team's development and recent improved play.  Avoiding the PIG would be a very nice accomplishment for this year's team, and winning an A10 Tournament quarterfinal is not entirely out of the question.

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On 02/13/2017 at 1:18 PM, Bay Area Billiken said:

Regrettably there will be no trip to the City that Never Sleeps and the Beloved Borough of the Bronx thereof for yours truly this weekend. 

This being said, here's hoping the Billikens earn a big win below the stained glass windows of Rose Hill Gym.  SLU has won there in the past, but has lost twice in that historic venue, once when Bryant Dunston was playing for Fordham, with Kevin Lisch out for that game, and the other 2 years ago when Taj and I were seated right behind the SLU Bench.

After seeing this season's SLU team in person at Chaifetz Arena for the Rhode Island game, I have been pleasantly surprised by the team's development and recent improved play.  Avoiding the PIG would be a very nice accomplishment for this year's team, and winning an A10 Tournament quarterfinal is not entirely out of the question.

hope to see you at the big dance soon.

Columbus was a good time.

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