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A10 Bubble Watch


Taj79

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I think the fact that we only have three teams mentioned on the current bubble watch shows the depths the league has sunk to this year.  The three A10 teams are VCU, Dayton and Rhode Island.  If you believe on of them wins the league auto-bid, then the other two have reason to sweat bullets come selection Sunday.  If another A10 teams wins in Pittsburgh, then I think one of these three will be left out totally when all is said and done.

All three have similar RPIs with VCU @ 30, Dayton at 33 and Rhode at 39.  Rhodey has the best SOS at 49 with VCU and Dayton close to each other at  62 and 69.  Dayton wins the eye-candy look as 8 of their win shave come against Top100 teams and could even go up to 10 if Richmond gets better and they beat Rhode Islandon the road this week.  Rhodey has the most impressive win over Cincinnati and not-too-bad losses to Valpo and Providence both on the road.  Rhodey's arrow goes up or down this month seeing as they have both VCU and Dayton in Kingston this month.  But that's it.  No mention of anything else other than the total season TJ Cline is having at Richmond. 

Cline is average 19.1 ppg, 8.4 rpg, and 5.4 apg.  He takes 30% of all Spider shots, grabs 25% of all Spider rebounds, is shooting 61% inside the arc, 31% outside the arc, and assists on 38% of the other Spider baskets.  Has to be A10 POY. 

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Whether another team outside the top 3 wins the A-10 conference or not has no bearing on the at-large selection (other than all those teams added a L in the conference tourney).  I thought the conference slotting myth had died long ago.

Bracketologists have Dayton and VCU in with Rhode Island on the outside.  Rhode Island needs some big wins so beating Dayton at home (and UMass in Amherst) would probably get them back in.  Two teams are certainly possible  but so is 4 and 3 and 1 (they have to do the work but the schedule favors Rhodey down the stretch). 

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No, I was using eye candy because the top 100 wins look sweet.  I guess eye test is suitable as well. 

As for conference slotting, that wasn't the intent here.  The intent was more that the A10 looks to only have three possible legit Dance candidates no matter how you slice it.  Once you get past these three, Richmond already has nine losses and Bonaventure 8.  I don't think La Salle si a seriously bidder givne they have lost to undercards Penn, St. Joes, and mason and the Mason loss was by twenty.  Anyone below the three mentions is meat unless they win the auto-bid, that was all I was saying.

I think given where we all stand right now, Only Dayton could survive an early exit from Pittsburgh and stand up in the conversation for an at-large bid.  And that is because their eye-candy schedule as I put it before.  VCU hasn't shocked anyone -- they have five losses and their best win was maybe LSU.  Or Princeton.  Rhodey has only beaten Cincinnati to date.  And with the A10 being weaker (my opinion) top to bottom, we are being impressive across the boards. Umass beat Dayton.  Fordham beat VCU. 

I agree that only 3 A10 teams DESERVE consideration at this point. 

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30 minutes ago, Glorydays2013 said:

The A10 seems to be heading into a complete turnaround next year. Teams like LaSalle, Davidson, Dayton, VCU, George Mason are on the path for a big upswing, biggest being LaSalle and Davidson. Dayton could have struck gold with Giannis Antenkumpo's brother Kostas

Isn't Gibbs a senior?

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A-10 is having a down year . After vacillating over the last 10 years between A- and B+ they have fallen to B this year ...lowest in a decade.  Of course the season isn't over yet  and they could rally back with a B+ (SLU wins the A-10 tourney and wins a couple in the Big Dance...that would be a big boost to the A-10 numbers)  In the end though there are just no really dominant teams this year. I have 3 bubble teams  Day, VCU and RI with RI and VCU being part of the last 6 in.  Obviously , one of those  3 will win the conference and if another one wins the A-10 tourney that might be it...It will be an interesting finish for those 3 . We will have a little say in it with games against VCU and Day. Avoiding blowouts in those games would be a good sign for the Bills.

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15 hours ago, The Wiz said:

A-10 is having a down year . After vacillating over the last 10 years between A- and B+ they have fallen to B this year ...lowest in a decade.  Of course the season isn't over yet  and they could rally back with a B+ (SLU wins the A-10 tourney and wins a couple in the Big Dance...that would be a big boost to the A-10 numbers)  In the end though there are just no really dominant teams this year. I have 3 bubble teams  Day, VCU and RI with RI and VCU being part of the last 6 in.  Obviously , one of those  3 will win the conference and if another one wins the A-10 tourney that might be it...It will be an interesting finish for those 3 . We will have a little say in it with games against VCU and Day. Avoiding blowouts in those games would be a good sign for the Bills.

Is this where I shuffle a deck and pull out of five of a kind to match those odds?

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17 hours ago, The Wiz said:

A-10 is having a down year . After vacillating over the last 10 years between A- and B+ they have fallen to B this year ...lowest in a decade.  Of course the season isn't over yet  and they could rally back with a B+ (SLU wins the A-10 tourney and wins a couple in the Big Dance...that would be a big boost to the A-10 numbers)  In the end though there are just no really dominant teams this year. I have 3 bubble teams  Day, VCU and RI with RI and VCU being part of the last 6 in.  Obviously , one of those  3 will win the conference and if another one wins the A-10 tourney that might be it...It will be an interesting finish for those 3 . We will have a little say in it with games against VCU and Day. Avoiding blowouts in those games would be a good sign for the Bills.

A big reason for this is SLU.  We've been a drag on the conference overall and that shouldn't be, as I think we have one of the highest program ceilings in the league.  Better play from Davidson and GW the past few years helped offset our suckiness, but they've come back down to earth some. A few other programs are playing admirably (Bona, LaSalle, Mason), but they're more limited due to facilities, resources, geography, etc. I think the A-10 needs SLU, UMASS, and St. Joe's to get it going, all programs that should be much better than they currently are. 

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On 2/7/2017 at 4:56 PM, Glorydays2013 said:

The A10 seems to be heading into a complete turnaround next year. Teams like LaSalle, Davidson, Dayton, VCU, George Mason are on the path for a big upswing, biggest being LaSalle and Davidson. Dayton could have struck gold with Giannis Antenkumpo's brother Kostas

The Bonnies should tick up with Adams and Mobley as seniors and the number of freshman they have making the jump to sophomores. They will lose Gregg and what else?

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3 hours ago, billiCAN said:

The Bonnies should tick up with Adams and Mobley as seniors and the number of freshman they have making the jump to sophomores. They will lose Gregg and what else?

UMass has their entire team coming back next year.  Or probably this is better stated, they have no seniors.  I really liked Jarreau

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1 hour ago, Old guy said:

Are you implying that officiating the games may not be above rigging? Interesting concept, did a security guard walk away with the ball again?

I'm implying that the league knows that VCU winning improves the A-10s chances of getting multiple teams in the dance. If the league knows it, maybe the refs do to.

For what its worth, I don't really believe the refs are trying to help VCU win, but these were two very controversial calls that basically turned sure losses into wins for VCU.

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kshoe is right on the amazing part.  I wouldn't second the rigged theory just yet.  Watch the ESPN video.  I thought GeeDubya should have been assessed a technical as the Bonnies were Saturday.  Watanabe makes the corner three with 4 tenths of a second to go.  The GeeDubya bench emptied.  The live camera angle shot down the court and you could see the cheerleaders all well over halfway up the court rushing the team piling on Watanabe.  But you can see Watanabee and SIna motioning for folks to stay off the court.  In the ESPN video, you can hear the PA announcer extolling the students (and it was a white out game) to stay off the court.  To their credit, they did.  The refs gathered at the scorer's table and decided that .4 seconds was correct.  But, much to my surprise, no technical.  Should have been in my opinion.

The announcers for CBSSN, then discussed how VCU had been practicing for this very scenario even in the afternoon's shoot around.  Will Wade had plays for .4 seconds and .5.  Order is restored and VCU gets to inbound under their basket, meaning a full court length catch-and-shoot pass play is their only feasible option.  JeQuan Lewis is prepared to receive ball on inbounds and to counter the inbounds, GeeDubya  puts in 6'11" freshman Colin Goss, who hasn't played all night, to bother the inbounder.  It's a free roam inbounds -- the guy with the ball can run the baseline.  So as he moves from the left under the backboard to the right, Lewis sets a pick on Goss.  And Goss flattens him.  From the reply, it even looks like Goss forearm-shivered Lewis while making contact.  Whistle.  One-and-one.  No time off clock.  Lewis makes both (he made the technical at Bonaventure too).  Ballgame.  Yes, Geeduby got to inbound as well but they weren't quite so lucky and you can see Mo Alie-Cox looking for screens on the inbounds.  Mo-Alie-Cox = fifth year senior.  Goss = freshman.

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10 minutes ago, Cowboy said:

-Taj I don't remember the team I first saw use that inbounds play but I remember thinking it was genius but like all calls it is not automatic

You are right. I pulled up the video and the screen on the inbound was very well done.  Maybe a little bit of a flop by Lewis, but Goss did drill him. 

The ESPN video crew was mistaken on the cause of the T at St. Bonnie.  They said it was the crowd, and as we now know it was primarily the security guard. 

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 I don't think there is one stand-alone factor for the Bonnies' fate.  The players left the bench.  The fans stormed the court.  The security guard took the ball.  The refs lost control.  3 to 1 against the Bonnies.

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VCU has escaped like Houdini its last 2 road games.

That charge play last night at GW, a mere 6 blocks from the Trump White House, was ingenious.  The VCU guy out of bounds throw in player ran the baseline, the 6'11" GW guy followed, and ran right over a VCU player, who had clearly been planted to draw that charge. 

Entrapment was evidently no defense for GW in DC.

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