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GM over the Bills by 7


The Wiz

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A winnable game.

We continue to cling to our D- rating while GM has fallen to C+. As we saw recently GM can be beaten. It will again take a full 40 min effort to do so. We have been trending up in some areas....3 pt shooting... off and def    On O we are up to D+ .. and on def  we have climbed to C.  FTs up at D-....Defense continues to improve also with.PPG = C+. Here is what the Bills stat report card looks like....Offense....PPG...F-...still 3rd worst in the nation ...slashline......F-  (11th worst in the nation) /  D+ / D-. ..On defense...PPG C+...slash C- / C..

GM stat report card....PPG.. C.....slash...C+ / D+ / C+...On D is where GM shines.....PPG...C+...slash...B+ / B+

GM is a team of guards with Moore as the star and Jenkins as the inside guy.  Moore leads the team in ppg, asst, and reb....18 / 4 / 11   He is 2nd in shooting at 50%....Jenkins leads at 61%.  Yet for all his wonderfulness, Moore has no 3 pt baskets this season.. And the rest of the team is not very good at 3s either.  In addition GM comes in with an F in terms of forcing opp TOs...good news for us . Off reb will be hard to come by...GM is an A+ team in this category (10th in the nation)...Def reb are at B-

As for injuries ...I am still seeing Zeke as questionable...which means game day decision.

Here is what we need to do to win. .. Keep TOs down (11)  which hopefully will give us a positive spread in TOs of 2-3....a slashline of 42/ 35/ 70.....Just for comparison purposes here is what an average slash looks like (straight C's)  44/ 35/ 70.... We need big time D inside the arc.....And finally a full 40 min of Bball

Go Bills ...Let's sweep the Patriots

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Wiz, I enjoy your scouting reports and analysis.  But I have a suggestion.  The plus or minus behind the letter grade works well for overall team assessment, but for the statistical reports — shooting percentage, PPG, etc. — I think it would be easier to digest if you used just the letters.  That still allows for five levels — Top 20% for A, second 20% for B, etc.  For comparing teams, the plus and minus (15 tiers) is great, but for the statistical rankings I think having most of the listings in five tiers makes it easier to grasp.  (And then it would make adding emphasis more stark: "Team X has A level defense; in fact, they force more TOs per possession than all but two teams (A+).")  Just my $0.02 (or less).

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40 minutes ago, Quality Is Job 1 said:

Wiz, I enjoy your scouting reports and analysis.  But I have a suggestion.  The plus or minus behind the letter grade works well for overall team assessment, but for the statistical reports — shooting percentage, PPG, etc. — I think it would be easier to digest if you used just the letters.  That still allows for five levels — Top 20% for A, second 20% for B, etc.  For comparing teams, the plus and minus (15 tiers) is great, but for the statistical rankings I think having most of the listings in five tiers makes it easier to grasp.  (And then it would make adding emphasis more stark: "Team X has A level defense; in fact, they force more TOs per possession than all but two teams (A+).")  Just my $0.02 (or less).

I can do that.  I was thinking it might be a little too much grades and stats...For me , I am a numbers guy ..so I like it . But for a casual fan (particularly in a down year) it might be a bit much. I can make the change unless people want the + and -.

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I like the +/- too.  I think  it shows the micro trends ...improvements or deterioration in specific areas as the season progresses.  What I may do is pull out the grades and keep them separate from the commentary.  It will be easier to follow and sort things out.  We have got to get this right  so that when we have thousands following us in the next 2 years ( or as Trump would say a million and half) they will be able to get the essence of the "new" Bills quickly.

This thread will be good at least until Feb 1 (game day) I will watch the +/- thing but the early returns seem like a keep at this point....Sorry, Quality is Job  1

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21 minutes ago, almaman said:

alternative facts will be fatal to sports if it spreads here. Imagine Olympics will you accept the judge's ruling? only if I win.

No alternative facts here....we drink the Blue Kool-Aid without  sugar

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3 hours ago, The Wiz said:

I like the +/- too.  I think  it shows the micro trends ...improvements or deterioration in specific areas as the season progresses.  What I may do is pull out the grades and keep them separate from the commentary.  It will be easier to follow and sort things out.  We have got to get this right  so that when we have thousands following us in the next 2 years ( or as Trump would say a million and half) they will be able to get the essence of the "new" Bills quickly.

This thread will be good at least until Feb 1 (game day) I will watch the +/- thing but the early returns seem like a keep at this point....Sorry, Quality is Job  1

I always like reading your analysis. The more detail you are willing to write up, the better in my opinion.

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-took a quick look at GM in conf - the win over Rich after losing to us is nice, then GW puts on the hurt,  we'll see what version of the Masons show up tomorrow

loss home to VCU by 9

win home UMass by 5         

loss @ Bonnies by 10

win @ STJ by 8

loss home to SLU by 7

win @ Rich by 5

loss home to GW by 19

win @ UMASS by 2   

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2 hours ago, Cowboy said:

-took a quick look at GM in conf - the win over Rich after losing to us is nice, then GW puts on the hurt,  we'll see what version of the Masons show up tomorrow

loss home to VCU by 9

win home UMass by 5         

loss @ Bonnies by 10

win @ STJ by 8

loss home to SLU by 7

win @ Rich by 5

loss home to GW by 19

win @ UMASS by 2   

I'm beginning to sense a pattern.

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What a great win...I said in the original post we needed 40 full minutes of bball...we got 50 min.

The key to this game was the TOs....In the original post I said we needed 11...we had 9...for 50 min. We had only 1 TO in the 2nd half  for 19 min. 57 sec...a TO at the end of regulation robbed us of a chance to win in regulation.  However only 2 TOs in 2 OTs. Not only that but GM had a decent total of 13.... In the original post I was looking for 2-3 positive spread for the Bills...we had a positive spread of 4 TOs  which was worth an extra 8 pts and overcame the point spread.....The extra pt of victory came from our 74% FT shooting.

Tip o' the cap to Mike Crawford who had 22 pts...including 9 in the 2nd OT...way to take charge.

We had 6 players who played in a 50 min game....Low man was Agbeko  who only had 34 min....Can you imagine that the  lowest minute player on your team had 34 min. ...pretty amazing.

This was not just a great win but a fantastic effort.  

It may be a D- team but I give them an A for effort

Go Bills

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The original AP story that  was released and picked up by other sports services said 22 pts. I think what happened is the story was written as the game was ending and the AP forgot to include the last shot Crawford took.  When the official boxscore came out the correction was made but it was too late for some services who had  printed the original story.

Crawfords correct slash line is....8-12/ 4-7/ 4-4 =  67/ 57/ 100 = 24pts ...a pretty nice night

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1 hour ago, The Wiz said:

The original AP story that  was released and picked up by other sports services said 22 pts. I think what happened is the story was written as the game was ending and the AP forgot to include the last shot Crawford took.  When the official boxscore came out the correction was made but it was too late for some services who had  printed the original story.

Crawfords correct slash line is....8-12/ 4-7/ 4-4 =  67/ 57/ 100 = 24pts ...a pretty nice night

Particularly nice since for much of the game he did nothing. Absolutely took control of the game late.

 

Had two really nice treys early, then disappeared, and COMMANDED in the last 17 minutes of the game. Talk about senior leadership, he wanted that one bad.

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