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One and Done


Clock_Tower

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Believe Coach Ford is taking us (SLU) into new territory for us -- the recruitment and landing of 4* (star) and 5* players.  While the norm for Kentucky and Duke, 4* and 5* players, we have our only experience with Larry Hughes.  Even RM mostly landed 3* players.  Now, I don't believe the current "star" rating system was used back in the day with Larry though believe most believe Larry Hughes would have been considered, by today's standards, a 5* player.  As such, Larry is an example of a 5* player who played for us only 1 year - One and Done.  At the same time, not all 5* players are really One and Done players.  Is it possible that all 5* players be considered One and Done?  I guess.  Then, again, it is possible that 4* players also might be One and Done - though far less likely.  Does anyone have some real numbers to better grasp this?  How many 4* and 5* players are labeled such, on average, each year?  How many college players players, on average, sign with the NBA after only one (1) year?  After only two (2) years?

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12 minutes ago, Glorydays2013 said:

Typically your top 5 recruits are going to be one and done, the rest comes down to who continues to put in work at the college level and proves it, which is why now you have players going to lower level programs so they can be the star and get all the minutes and attention over Duke and Kentucky. 

Like the kid who thought playing for Lorenzo Romar at UDubb would be a good thing. 3/4 of the nation is sleeping when he takes the court.

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7 minutes ago, Glorydays2013 said:

I believe that was due to him being a family friend, similar to Simmons at LSU

Interesting. Just saying a kid from DeMatha Catholic going all the way to Seattle as a one-and-done is odd. But I guess Simmons going from Australia to Baton Rouge isn't a route one would suspect, either. The optics remind me of Robbie Cano leaving the Yankees and the media markets of the east coast to play in Seattle. When he steps to the plate for a 7:05 pm PDT first-pitch, it's 10:05 pm on the east coast.

The family connections, etc., sure I can see that being a factor, but how many of you have stayed up for an entire Monday night PAC XII tilt? Is Fultz really getting the exposure he would get if he stayed in the prime-time slots the ACC and the Big East garner?

At the end of the day, I'm sure all the NBA teams have west coast scouts and cross-checkers that can easily get to Seattle or Los Angeles or Phoenix to see the kid play, but wouldn't you (hypothetically speaking) as a 76er fan want to see the goods up-close, too?

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1 hour ago, Clock_Tower said:

Believe Coach Ford is taking us (SLU) into new territory for us -- the recruitment and landing of 4* (star) and 5* players.  While the norm for Kentucky and Duke, 4* and 5* players, we have our only experience with Larry Hughes.  Even RM mostly landed 3* players.  Now, I don't believe the current "star" rating system was used back in the day with Larry though believe most believe Larry Hughes would have been considered, by today's standards, a 5* player.  As such, Larry is an example of a 5* player who played for us only 1 year - One and Done.  At the same time, not all 5* players are really One and Done players.  Is it possible that all 5* players be considered One and Done?  I guess.  Then, again, it is possible that 4* players also might be One and Done - though far less likely.  Does anyone have some real numbers to better grasp this?  How many 4* and 5* players are labeled such, on average, each year?  How many college players players, on average, sign with the NBA after only one (1) year?  After only two (2) years?

In the 8 year period between '06 and '13 there were 60 one and done college players. In that same time there were 184 Five Star high school recruits as Freshmen in college ball. 

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16 minutes ago, Bobby Metzinger said:

Interesting. Just saying a kid from DeMatha Catholic going all the way to Seattle as a one-and-done is odd. But I guess Simmons going from Australia to Baton Rouge isn't a route one would suspect, either. The optics remind me of Robbie Cano leaving the Yankees and the media markets of the east coast to play in Seattle. When he steps to the plate for a 7:05 pm PDT first-pitch, it's 10:05 pm on the east coast.

The family connections, etc., sure I can see that being a factor, but how many of you have stayed up for an entire Monday night PAC XII tilt? Is Fultz really getting the exposure he would get if he stayed in the prime-time slots the ACC and the Big East garner?

At the end of the day, I'm sure all the NBA teams have west coast scouts and cross-checkers that can easily get to Seattle or Los Angeles or Phoenix to see the kid play, but wouldn't you (hypothetically speaking) as a 76er fan want to see the goods up-close, too?

I have friend of mine that lives here in St. Louis that is a professional basketball scout. He scouts college and NBA for a service that NBA teams subscribe to. All of his work is done on tape and the detail and metrics is very impressive. I am sure teams "go see the kids play" but much of the really advanced stuff is done via video.

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25 minutes ago, Bobby Metzinger said:

Interesting. Just saying a kid from DeMatha Catholic going all the way to Seattle as a one-and-done is odd. But I guess Simmons going from Australia to Baton Rouge isn't a route one would suspect, either. The optics remind me of Robbie Cano leaving the Yankees and the media markets of the east coast to play in Seattle. When he steps to the plate for a 7:05 pm PDT first-pitch, it's 10:05 pm on the east coast.

The family connections, etc., sure I can see that being a factor, but how many of you have stayed up for an entire Monday night PAC XII tilt? Is Fultz really getting the exposure he would get if he stayed in the prime-time slots the ACC and the Big East garner?

At the end of the day, I'm sure all the NBA teams have west coast scouts and cross-checkers that can easily get to Seattle or Los Angeles or Phoenix to see the kid play, but wouldn't you (hypothetically speaking) as a 76er fan want to see the goods up-close, too?

Considering Fultz could end up being the #1 pick in the NBA draft, I think he's doing fine on exposure. Seriously, I can't believe people are still caught up on this idea that you have to go to one of the top programs to get enough exposure. It's 2017.

As far as Michael Porter Jr. goes, his Dad is an assistant at Washington and Romar is a close family friend. He's also the favorite to be the #1 pick in a he 2018 NBA draft.

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47 minutes ago, JohnnyJumpUp said:

In the 8 year period between '06 and '13 there were 60 one and done college players. In that same time there were 184 Five Star high school recruits as Freshmen in college ball. 

What these numbers mean is that any one year (for the last 8 years) an average of 7.5 players out of the 18 or so selected by the NBA (about 42%) are one and done's. Since there may be a few 4 star players (high school senior rating) in the one and done numbers, it appears that less than a third of the 5 star players entering college will become one and dones. The actual percentages are likely to vary from year to year.

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14 hours ago, Old guy said:

What these numbers mean is that any one year (for the last 8 years) an average of 7.5 players out of the 18 or so selected by the NBA (about 42%) are one and done's. Since there may be a few 4 star players (high school senior rating) in the one and done numbers, it appears that less than a third of the 5 star players entering college will become one and dones. The actual percentages are likely to vary from year to year.

Yeah, I look at the holdovers on KU and Kentucky and ask myself the same question: why are these kids sticking around Lawrence and Lexington? Perry Ellis and Wayne Selden were at KU almost the whole time. Frank Mason, four years. What's going on?

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Hi Bobby, from my point of view, if you go to KU or Kentucky as a 5 star celebrated high school baketball player you are going to find a team full of equally high powered (some much better than you think you are) players. The real top players will get the most play, the other (also extremely talented) players will sit on the bench for long stretches and provide practice for the stars. It seems to me that if the scouts cannot see you doing your thing, your chances to become a one and done are diminished.

Same thing happens in college. Places like Harvard are chock full with all kinds of extraordinary kids with really great ability in some area (whether it is sports, math, or music). These are kids that swim through high school at a level no one in the school can get near them, then they go to Harvard and squash their noses against a solid wall of competition from other equally capable (or better capable) kids than they are. It is a very sobering experience. You ( I mean each individual student in this situation) gets to feel like a dummy, for many kids this is their first experience feeling like a dummy ever in their lives. Some can take it some do not and act out or crumble, a significant number get humble and stay there, as you say about basketball players, "warming the bench for 4 years." This happens across the board whenever there is a highly competitive situation. Some people become the real stars, others are humbled and stay little or even invisible, some act out or crumble and are rapidly eliminated. 

And yes, all the attention goes to the stars, not much to the supporting cast. Why do people stay as a bench warmer or humble supporting cast is a very good question to ask. If you actually ask them why they stay, they will tell you something like "being here is what matters or is everything." 

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26 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Hi Bobby, from my point of view, if you go to KU or Kentucky as a 5 star celebrated high school baketball player you are going to find a team full of equally high powered (some much better than you think you are) players. The real top players will get the most play, the other (also extremely talented) players will sit on the bench for long stretches and provide practice for the stars. It seems to me that if the scouts cannot see you doing your thing, your chances to become a one and done are diminished.

Same thing happens in college. Places like Harvard are chock full with all kinds of extraordinary kids with really great ability in some area (whether it is sports, math, or music). These are kids that swim through high school at a level no one in the school can get near them, then they go to Harvard and squash their noses against a solid wall of competition from other equally capable (or better capable) kids than they are. It is a very sobering experience. You ( I mean each individual student in this situation) gets to feel like a dummy, for many kids this is their first experience feeling like a dummy ever in their lives. Some can take it some do not and act out or crumble, a significant number get humble and stay there, as you say about basketball players, "warming the bench for 4 years." This happens across the board whenever there is a highly competitive situation. Some people become the real stars, others are humbled and stay little or even invisible, some act out or crumble and are rapidly eliminated. 

And yes, all the attention goes to the stars, not much to the supporting cast. Why do people stay as a bench warmer or humble supporting cast is a very good question to ask. If you actually ask them why they stay, they will tell you something like "being here is what matters or is everything." 

Old Guy, great post - clears a lot of things up for me, but still don't get why Perry Ellis didn't go pro after a year of ball at Kansas or Frank Mason doing the same. We are seeing (since David Stern locked down the no more HS - to - NBA direct flight) that most of these athletes are "going to college" because they are bound by some sort of Draconian legislation.  The Brandon Jennings route makes more sense and will clear the distortion and disorder of the One-and-Done era. Fran Fraschilla (sic) was on XM radio talking about how his era grew up knowing a majority of college basketball rosters for four years and that college basketball fans were familiar with the product on the floor. Kentucky fans (world's smallest violin here) have had to learn a new starting five for the last couple of seasons now.

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2 hours ago, Bobby Metzinger said:

Old Guy, great post - clears a lot of things up for me, but still don't get why Perry Ellis didn't go pro after a year of ball at Kansas or Frank Mason doing the same. We are seeing (since David Stern locked down the no more HS - to - NBA direct flight) that most of these athletes are "going to college" because they are bound by some sort of Draconian legislation.  The Brandon Jennings route makes more sense and will clear the distortion and disorder of the One-and-Done era. Fran Fraschilla (sic) was on XM radio talking about how his era grew up knowing a majority of college basketball rosters for four years and that college basketball fans were familiar with the product on the floor. Kentucky fans (world's smallest violin here) have had to learn a new starting five for the last couple of seasons now.

Is it possible that the player you see as a senior has shown dramatic improvement from their frosh year? 

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14 minutes ago, slu72 fan said:

Is it possible that the player you see as a senior has shown dramatic improvement from their frosh year? 

It's possible, but since 2005, only four seniors have been the MOP of the Final Four, one being a substitute (Hancock, U of L). It's just an interesting paradigm shift in the game.

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It comes down to a singular decision -- what's best for me?  The multitude of voice chirping in one's ear has to be deciphered, digested, collated, and spit back out into that decision and frankly it rests with the kid.  Kid's going to do what a kid's going to do.  Decisions can be good or bad for the kid.  Does not matter the affect on the school.  Larry Hughes/good.  Korleone Young/bad.  Dontonio Wingfield/bad.  LeBron James/good.  Diamodn Stone/bad.  Sometimes, the kid and the pro team fails.  Greg Oden/fail.  Joe Barry Carroll/fail.  Anthony Bennett/fail.  Dan Morriosn/fail. 

Sometimes, kid like college and just stay longer.  Most times, the pressing need for untold riches runs the show.  Got to feed the entourage.  Frankly, once a kid leaves college, I don't care what they do, or their team.  Do not care about the NBA in the least.

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19 hours ago, JohnnyJumpUp said:

In the 8 year period between '06 and '13 there were 60 one and done college players. In that same time there were 184 Five Star high school recruits as Freshmen in college ball. 

In the 2016 NBA draft 14 freshmen were drafted. Looking at 2017 mock drafts 15-17 freshmen are projected to go in the first round. 

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My problem with the current system is these kids are only following the prescribed rules of engagement.  NBA will not draft a kid out of high school anymore so they have to go somewhere for a year.  One year amid the Lexington or Gainesville coeds is a heck of a lot better than trekking through Manchuria or terrorist-dominated eastern Europe or the middle East if you ask me.  I'd do it too.  I like the college football rule where the NFL won't take them until their high school class has graduated college.  But I like that because that rule benefits me as the college basketball junkie-- I know my one-and-doners, if I get any, are in school for four years and on the court for three.  Think of that in terms of 1998-99 and 1999-2000 --- Hughes sophomore and junior years -- which we never got to enjoy.

And I know I'm biased.

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Bobby as many people know in this board, I am not well versed in basketball or about players. I am sorry but I cannot bring any further clarity into why Perry Ellis or Frank Mason made the decisions they made when they made them. I suppose a lot of it were personal factors but I really do not know.

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8 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Bobby as many people know in this board, I am not well versed in basketball or about players. I am sorry but I cannot bring any further clarity into why Perry Ellis or Frank Mason made the decisions they made when they made them. I suppose a lot of it were personal factors but I really do not know.

The easy answer is they were/are being paid.

I would prefer the rule being changed to two years in school before you can declare for the draft, but that would probably hurt our school, specifically, so I don't really care.

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8 minutes ago, majerus mojo said:

The easy answer is they were/are being paid.

I would prefer the rule being changed to two years in school before you can declare for the draft, but that would probably hurt our school, specifically, so I don't really care.

-why do you think the rule you would like hurts SLU? wouldn't the 14-15 one and done kids have to go somewhere else since those schollies are not open as kids already there have to stay an extra year? perhaps SLU would be their somewhere else

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20 minutes ago, majerus mojo said:

The easy answer is they were/are being paid.

I would prefer the rule being changed to two years in school before you can declare for the draft, but that would probably hurt our school, specifically, so I don't really care.

3 hours ago, Bobby Metzinger said:

Old Guy, great post - clears a lot of things up for me, but still don't get why Perry Ellis didn't go pro after a year of ball at Kansas or Frank Mason doing the same. We are seeing (since David Stern locked down the no more HS - to - NBA direct flight) that most of these athletes are "going to college" because they are bound by some sort of Draconian legislation.  The Brandon Jennings route makes more sense and will clear the distortion and disorder of the One-and-Done era. Fran Fraschilla (sic) was on XM radio talking about how his era grew up knowing a majority of college basketball rosters for four years and that college basketball fans were familiar with the product on the floor. Kentucky fans (world's smallest violin here) have had to learn a new starting five for the last couple of seasons now.

No, the easy answer is because they aren't NBA level players. Perry Ellis wasn't drafted and I doubt Frank Mason will be either.

I don't have the numbers, but the D League has quite a few guys right now who left college early.

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9 minutes ago, For-DaLove said:

No, the easy answer is because they aren't NBA level players. Perry Ellis wasn't drafted and I doubt Frank Mason will be either.

I don't have the numbers, but the D League has quite a few guys right now who left college early.

+1

 Frank Mason is like 6 foot at best. Not saying you *can't* play in the NBA at that height but... 

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1 hour ago, For-DaLove said:

No, the easy answer is because they aren't NBA level players. Perry Ellis wasn't drafted and I doubt Frank Mason will be either.

I don't have the numbers, but the D League has quite a few guys right now who left college early.

Is that necessarily bad? If a kid doesn't want to go to college is spending their 20's playing in the D league a bad gig. If I could go back in time and be 20 again and had the choice of making 100k a year in a real job or playing in the D league for 40k (Don't know the average D league salary just throwing out a guess) I'd play ball. You have plenty of time to in your life to work.

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31 minutes ago, slufanskip said:

Is that necessarily bad? If a kid doesn't want to go to college is spending their 20's playing in the D league a bad gig. If I could go back in time and be 20 again and had the choice of making 100k a year in a real job or playing in the D league for 40k (Don't know the average D league salary just throwing out a guess) I'd play ball. You have plenty of time to in your life to work.

Not at all. I didn't mean for it to come across that way. In fact, I could see that option becoming more popular.

 

I'm just saying kids are less likely to leave college early if they don't believe they are ready to play in the NBA. I was specifically addressing why players like Perry Ellis and Franklin Mason stay the full 4 years.

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20 hours ago, Taj79 said:

My problem with the current system is these kids are only following the prescribed rules of engagement.  NBA will not draft a kid out of high school anymore so they have to go somewhere for a year.  One year amid the Lexington or Gainesville coeds is a heck of a lot better than trekking through Manchuria or terrorist-dominated eastern Europe or the middle East if you ask me.  I'd do it too.  I like the college football rule where the NFL won't take them until their high school class has graduated college.  But I like that because that rule benefits me as the college basketball junkie-- I know my one-and-doners, if I get any, are in school for four years and on the court for three.  Think of that in terms of 1998-99 and 1999-2000 --- Hughes sophomore and junior years -- which we never got to enjoy.

And I know I'm biased.

The text in bold is a bit off.  I believe the rule is that they must be three years removed from high school.  A player could declare for the NFL draft after his junior year -- or after his sophomore year if he redshirted.

But the NFL's reason for doing that is much less for ethical reasons than what's best for their business.  Football players in the NFL are so big that it takes more time for a young man to develop to withstand the pounding.  A guy one or two years out of high school just won't have developed enough to endure on that level, in general.

The NBA and MLB don't provide as much physical stress, so it's more possible for younger men to compete on a compatible level.

Edited by Quality Is Job 1
clarity
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