The Wiz Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Another double digit spread... The sad thing is Duq ( C- ) isn't that good. The problem is that we are terrible Here is what the Duq slash looks like...I will use grades rather than %....D / D+ / D+ ...PPG D+ The Bills ( F+ ) slash ....F- / D / F- ( 13th worst in nation).....PPG...F- ( 7th worst in .the nation) But as terrible as we are we beat a good Dav team in the 2nd half...so the potential is there. TOs should not be an issue this game...they are as bad as we are.....If Duq has less than 7 TOs in the 1st half then we aren't bothering them enough. In any case there should be no TO spread this game. Duq defense is so so... They start at a B under the basket and fade to a C- from 3...the farther out you go from the basket the less D they play. This team doesn't have a go to guy...the scoring will be spread around. Their best shooter is Blackman. Bottomline.... Fantasy basketball time....Let's pretend when the game starts it is the beginning of the 2nd half of the Davidson game. Then after halftime let's do it again. Duq is a much weaker team then Dav...If we play a full 40 min and play smart we can win the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 It is not so much how terrible we are but how many (of the few players we have) will be able to play. Bishop is sidelined with some kind of foot injury, Crawford has been having problems (again) with his hamstring and missed practice prior to the game against Davidson. Both of them can play but not so if they are benched with physical problems, as Bishop is, or if the problems impede their playing, as it has been the case with Crawford. Worst case scenario, Bishop stays sidelined and Crawford does not play at all. I know miracles may happen, but you cannot count upon miracles to solve a problem like this. Can we play like we did in the second half of the Davidson game without Crawford, fielding a team of only 5 workable scholarship players (not counting Gilmann or Neufeld among the 5 scholarship players) plus one playing walk on? Can anyone imagine a game with Gilmann, Neufeld and Psimitris getting 15 to 20 minutes playing time each? Let's consider this question carefully, if we play like we did in the second half against Davidson without Crawford, even if we lose the game, all doubts about Ford as a coach should be eliminated. If this is the case, Ford would have achieved an impossible outcome. The issue we have this year is not that we have a bad team, the issue is that we have no team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 I have a good feeling about this one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 Well in a best case scenario where no one gets hurt...we still grade out at a D. ....which still means an 0-18 conference record. With missing players we go from a bad team to one of epic lows.. In an earlier analysis I mentioned the lack of depth was a significant problem and kind of left it as a hope for the best scenario. The reality is that most teams lose players during the year. We just have no margin of error. If you are not sure what that means ...just take a look at our numbers ...we currently have the 7th worst offense in the country...that is epic. If we get back to 100% it will insure the NC A & T win and narrow the remaining conference loss spreads.... Tick...tick...tick...2 months 2 go (till the end of the season) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Please tell me I can view this fiasco on the net somewhere ..... please .... I have go to see this .... and it would really enhance my "enjoyment" if the feed comes with the Duquesne broadcast duo ..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Pelican Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, Taj79 said: Please tell me I can view this fiasco on the net somewhere ..... please .... I have go to see this .... and it would really enhance my "enjoyment" if the feed comes with the Duquesne broadcast duo ..... SLU website shows it on "Facebook Live". Don't know what to make of that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 31 minutes ago, White Pelican said: SLU website shows it on "Facebook Live". Don't know what to make of that. -Go Bills will let us know, I hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 Look who is below the Bills in the current NCAA RPI ratings. Chicago State is above both of us. (First number is current RPI, second number is previous RPI.) Duquesne is sitting at 203 according to the NCAA. RPI / Previous Record / Road / Neutral / Home /Non D1 262 263 Chicago St. Western Athletic 4-14 1-11 1-1 0-2 2-0 263 260 Western Mich. Mid-American 4-10 0-6 0-3 3-1 1-0 264 265 Louisiana Tech Conference USA 10-6 1-4 1-0 6-2 2-0 265 262 Saint Louis Atlantic 10 4-11 0-3 0-2 4-6 0-0 266 274 UMES Mid-Eastern 4-12 2-10 0-1 0-1 2-0 267 264 Missouri Southeastern 5-9 0-1 1-3 4-5 0-0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 RPI can RIP (or not). It's meaningless, especially at this point of the season, as far as determining who's better than who. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 52 minutes ago, Quality Is Job 1 said: RPI can RIP (or not). It's meaningless, especially at this point of the season, as far as determining who's better than who. It's a known metric. Your opinion is noted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted January 10, 2017 Share Posted January 10, 2017 18 minutes ago, HoosierPal said: It's a known metric. Your opinion is noted. Sure, it's a known metric, but it's a fact that you can't use it in the middle of the season to compare teams. At least, not very reliably. Even the NCAA stopped relying on the RPI heavily, but they augment the data with other metrics, including those that are subjective. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willie Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 The NCAA says they don't rely on the RPI but if you look at the brackets they rely on the RPI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 2 hours ago, Quality Is Job 1 said: Sure, it's a known metric, but it's a fact that you can't use it in the middle of the season to compare teams. At least, not very reliably. Even the NCAA stopped relying on the RPI heavily, but they augment the data with other metrics, including those that are subjective. Your opinion is again noted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsmith19 Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 So the big question is how close do we need to make it to avoid dropping to a straight F? Should keeping it under 20 leave us at F+? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 4 hours ago, HoosierPal said: Look who is below the Bills in the current NCAA RPI ratings. Chicago State is above both of us. (First number is current RPI, second number is previous RPI.) Duquesne is sitting at 203 according to the NCAA. RPI / Previous Record / Road / Neutral / Home /Non D1 262 263 Chicago St. Western Athletic 4-14 1-11 1-1 0-2 2-0 263 260 Western Mich. Mid-American 4-10 0-6 0-3 3-1 1-0 264 265 Louisiana Tech Conference USA 10-6 1-4 1-0 6-2 2-0 265 262 Saint Louis Atlantic 10 4-11 0-3 0-2 4-6 0-0 266 274 UMES Mid-Eastern 4-12 2-10 0-1 0-1 2-0 267 264 Missouri Southeastern 5-9 0-1 1-3 4-5 0-0 Sorry HoosierPal...Put me in the camp with those that say RPI is not very meaningful. Here is the way I would grade these RPI similar teams La Tech....B Mizzou.....C+ West Mich...D+ SLU...........F+ UMES........F+ Chi St.........F While the bottom 3 are close that is quite a spread for the top 3... for teams that are supposedly close. My numbers show that La Tech would kill these other teams...not even close. If La Tech was in the A-10....6th place finish....very respectable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 27 minutes ago, hsmith19 said: So the big question is how close do we need to make it to avoid dropping to a straight F? Should keeping it under 20 leave us at F+? The general rule is if you match the spread ...you stay where you are....you did what you were supposed to do....you have the proper grade. If you exceed the spread.... ie lose by more than 11...your numbers start to weaken. And conversely if we narrow the spread our numbers strengthen...and with a win (OMG) we would probably move up to a D-. . Winning is like answering the bonus question right. Now it is not just about the Bills ...it does depend on what all the other teams do. It is also harder to move up at this point in the season because you have a lot of bad data to cancel out...but i guarantee you if we knock off 7 wins in a row you would see a major GPA jump up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 10 hours ago, The Wiz said: Sorry HoosierPal...Put me in the camp with those that say RPI is not very meaningful. Here is the way I would grade these RPI similar teams La Tech....B Mizzou.....C+ West Mich...D+ SLU...........F+ UMES........F+ Chi St.........F While the bottom 3 are close that is quite a spread for the top 3... for teams that are supposedly close. My numbers show that La Tech would kill these other teams...not even close. If La Tech was in the A-10....6th place finish....very respectable. My two comments, "SLU is ranked above Mizzou in the NCAA RPI" (as of January 10) plus "it's a known metric" seem to have caused a lot of consternation. Interesting how people react. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Hoosier Pal, what this brief discussion about metrics and ranking systems does show is that ranking systems are expert systems which try to predict the future (how good at team is in comparison with all other teams) by using various metrics that are believed to affect the probabilities of the final outcome, whether it is who will win a game or the rankings at the end of the season. The discussion clearly shows that the functionality of both the ranking systems and the individual metrics used varies, with some systems and metrics being more functional in some cases (better capable of better accuracy in predicting the future) than other systems and metrics. This does not affect the use of the less functional systems, metrics, or subjective opinions for important functions like selecting the seed levels for the Big Dance, etc... What the Wiz says about how difficult it is to move up and down in general categories (F, D, etc...) is much more closely tied than individual metrics like RPI to the actual factors operating within each team at any one point in the season. Looking at SLU, we are plagued by low numbers of players, players sidelined or rendered less effective by injury, non performing players, a bench with absolutely no depth, and the need to use walk ons or non performing players during games because we have no one else to throw into play. These factors are not likely to change before the end of the season. Other teams have other kinds of problems that will likewise become increasingly unchangeable as the season progresses. A better RPI than other teams makes us no better than we are, does not solve our problems. What a better RPI than Mizzou's does is to give us some bragging rights. There is nothing wrong with enjoying those few bragging rights we may get in the midst of a dismal season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Pelican Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Old guy, I think the Hoosier's comments were obliquely directed at a certain closet Mizzou fan. And I tried to keep this short. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 I do not doubt you are correct White Pelican, but what is wrong with defining both rankings and metrics in a reasonably realistic way? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsmith19 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 The Wiz seems to like Mizzou better than kenpom. They're 186 on kenpom, which would make them more like C-. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 1 hour ago, hsmith19 said: The Wiz seems to like Mizzou better than kenpom. They're 186 on kenpom, which would make them more like C-. Missouri seems more like a D team, to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 12, 2017 Author Share Posted January 12, 2017 44 minutes ago, Quality Is Job 1 said: Missouri seems more like a D team, to me. t seems that way because Mizzou is a bottom feeder in an A conference. If it weren't for the Bills , Duq would be the bottom feeder in the A-10 and seem much worse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 31 minutes ago, The Wiz said: t seems that way because Mizzou is a bottom feeder in an A conference. If it weren't for the Bills , Duq would be the bottom feeder in the A-10 and seem much worse. Save Kentucky and Florida, I don't think the SEC is very much superior to the A-10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soderball Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 "save the best two teams its not much better" OK, lets discount dayton and RI too then. i despise SPUMAC and look forward to their next arrest. dirtbag program and a corrupt administration. Columbia Correctional is rotten up to the very top. but get real about this. the a10 is pretty damn weak right now, particularly compared to what the Majerus crew dealt with and beat. the collapse of SLU has a lot to do with the downfall of the conference. for three years we had the marquee program. KenPom, Sagarin, and the Wiz are all much better metrics than RPI, particularly mid-season. this team is absolutely atrocious, embrace it. better days are on the horizon. Billiken Basketball -- Weather the Storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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