Billikenswin Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 44 minutes ago, brianstl said: I am just trying to figure out where all these minutes are going to come for JJ, DR, JB and EW to be significant returnees. There are still only 200 minutes available in a game and these are guys that are currently playing on the 291st best team in the country according to Pomeroy. Either we aren't going to be much improved next season or at least two out of those four will be riding the bench for the most part. If you think Roby will be a starter at the beginning of next season then you have to at least think he will average about 20 minutes a game when Graves becomes eligible. Roby can play the 1-3 spot. Between the 1-3 spot you have 120 minutes available. I figure Adonys will probably lead the team in minutes lets say at 30 a game. Then lets say Goodwin gets 25. Graves gets 22. Bess gives you 20 minutes at the 3 and doesn't get any time as a two. You got Roby at 20. That comes up to 117 minutes. That leaves 3 minutes a game for Bishop. That is with me probably underestimating the average minutes Adonys and Goodwin will get. Plus, I am making an assumption that Johnson sees no time at the 3 next season. Now go divide up the 80 minutes a game at the 4 and 5 spot between Foreman, French, Johnson and Welmer. Foreman averaged 27 mpg last season at Rutgers. Let's use that number for both him and French. That gives you 54 minutes. You have 26 minutes left to divide up between Johnson and Welmer. I will go with Johnson getting 16 and Welmer 10. That minute breakdown is assuming that Ford doesn't find someone with immediately eligibility that would fit the description of a competent D1 center. I tend to think he will and if that happens there will be less minutes available for the returnees. I would suggest that trying to figure out the rotation and minutes to be played by each player next year is impossible. I would assume that our two centers will play few if any minutes if they are on the team next year but beyond that everything is in flux and, in my opinion, will be determined by factors which are not yet known such as: 1. How will each player develop and improve between now and next November? For instance, Bishop has already gotten much stronger-- hitting the weights since his injury--and I assume that everyone, particularly Wellmer and Johnson will be much stronger next year. The four transfers already look plenty strong and they will likely hit the weights hard over the summer. The physical look of the returnees could be markedly different by November. 2. How will our injured players recover and perform and will we avoid injuries to others? Goodwin and Foreman are coming off surgeries and Bishop off of a foot injury which kept him out most of the season. This year injuries hurt us, particularly with Mike. If everyone is healthy and strong by November the practices should be fun to watch. 3.DEFENSE! How will all of these players fit into the defensive schemes? On a better team, Roby could give us 22-25 intense minutes of defense and if he is hitting shots I think it will be hard to keep him on the bench. JJ has improved his defense but needs to get stronger. Welmer can add some shot blocking but French appears to be a real tough guy who can be a weak side terror blocking shots. Foreman is big and strong but how will be fit into the defensive mix. When we have gone to zone this year the length of Moore has seemed to be pretty effective--he might get some minutes due to energy and hustle on D. If healthy, we know that Goodwin has tenacity and intensity on the defensive end--He gave Tillmon all he could handle in the Althoff/ESL game--giving up 7-8 inches. Plus, I assume we will be employing a much more pressing style--even a full court press. it would seem that Bess would be perfect for that defense but how will the others fit in? 4. Chemistry! With all of these new players the coaching staff will be working overtime to try to fit the pieces together into a cohesive group. Chemistry is huge! The good thing is that the four transfers and Bishop have been here for some time and seem to really get along with the others on the team--i.e. the reaction after the last second 2OT win! For those of us who are fanatics we need a time machine so we can advance to November 1, 2017. Between now and then we will all go crazy trying to create one thousand different lineups/minute allocations! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3star_recruit Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 2 hours ago, brianstl said: I am just trying to figure out where all these minutes are going to come for JJ, DR, JB and EW to be significant returnees. There are still only 200 minutes available in a game and these are guys that are currently playing on the 291st best team in the country according to Pomeroy. Either we aren't going to be much improved next season or at least two out of those four will be riding the bench for the most part. That's about the size of it. Isn't it wonderful having so much depth that even if two players get injured we can still win ball games? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 17 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said: That's about the size of it. Isn't it wonderful having so much depth that even if two players get injured we can still win ball games? Why would you figure we would be able to win games if two of the new guys go down? We aren't winning games now. I don't think we will be all that deep with talent next season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3star_recruit Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 If we had four of the six new guys at the start of this season, you don't think we would be in the top half of the A10? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glorydays2013 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 I don't know what the debate is. Literally every player coming in is leagues above everyone we have right now. The realistic returners who can help next year are Welmer JJ and roby. Remember this is the best recruiting class slu has ever had and if the transfers were included we would be top 15 or top 10 classes. Enough said Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsmith19 Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 I think we have been really over-thinking the "depth" thing on here. Only five guys can play at once, and we're getting six new guys next year. I've seen enough in the handful of A10 wins this year that I'm not worried about Roby/Welmer being backups next year and Bishop/Moore/Johnson being third string, or whatever combination we end up with. Seems to me a much bigger question than "depth" is whether these new guys are really as talented as we've allowed ourselves to believe. Just think back to what a huge difference it made to the roster to lose two guys in 2010, and then what a huge difference it made to get one of them back in 2011. I'm a lot more interested in figuring out whether any of the new guys can be difference makers like that than wringing hands about lack of depth among the returning cast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 29 minutes ago, brianstl said: Nm That basically means being on the verge of being a top 100 team and no I don't think we can do that losing 2 of the new addittions. I dont think you have come to terms with how bad the present team actually is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glorydays2013 Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 Johnson is not 3rd string. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 Simply put, next year's team will have 6, likely 7, maybe 8 players on it that are better than any player currently on the team. Put differently, the best player on this year's team will be the 7th, 8th or 9th best player next year. Hence, its perfectly reasonable to say this years team is dreadful but next year's can be really good, like NCAA tournament type good. Quite frankly, how good we are next year doesn't really depend on whether the existing players can contribute substantially as 7th, 8th or 9th options. What matters is whether newcomers 1-7 are really that good... and healthy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willie Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, kshoe said: Simply put, next year's team will have 6, likely 7, maybe 8 players on it that are better than any player currently on the team. Put differently, the best player on this year's team will be the 7th, 8th or 9th best player next year. Hence, its perfectly reasonable to say this years team is dreadful but next year's can be really good, like NCAA tournament type good. Quite frankly, how good we are next year doesn't really depend on whether the existing players can contribute substantially as 7th, 8th or 9th options. What matters is whether newcomers 1-7 are really that good... and healthy. Is Jalen Johnson better then aBess or French? I hope not ,and I think Johnson is pretty damn good for a freshmen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, kshoe said: Simply put, next year's team will have 6, likely 7, maybe 8 players on it that are better than any player currently on the team. Put differently, the best player on this year's team will be the 7th, 8th or 9th best player next year. Hence, its perfectly reasonable to say this years team is dreadful but next year's can be really good, like NCAA tournament type good. Quite frankly, how good we are next year doesn't really depend on whether the existing players can contribute substantially as 7th, 8th or 9th options. What matters is whether newcomers 1-7 are really that good... and healthy. Which means you can't lose a third of the new guys to injury and expect to be a top 100 team. You need to keep the returnees that low in the rotation. You could survive losing an Adonys or a French getting knocked out for the year and still be a top 100 team. Both go down and it ain't happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glorydays2013 Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 We will be a top 50 team next year no doubt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3star_recruit Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 2 hours ago, brianstl said: That basically means being on the verge of being a top 100 team and no I don't think we can do that losing 2 of the new addittions. I dont think you have come to terms with how bad the present team actually is. Sorry, didn't mean to imply we could lose two players for the whole season. But certainly we could still manage to beat the likes of Fordham and Davidson if we had two guys down for a few games. Imagine how different tonight's game would have been with Goodwin, Graves, Bess and Foreman. With those guys we probably win the rebounding battle tonight and score more easily. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiseOfTheBillikens Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 8 hours ago, TheChosenOne said: Out of curiosity, as a fan do you want Bishop to stick around? Also, why would he be allowed to get this entire season back? Answered by kshoe. Yesssss. Bishop can have success at the high D1 level. Especially now that he's going to be at an elevated age. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorB Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 20 hours ago, billiken_roy said: who do you think Roby would start over? Henriquez and Goodwin are for sure starters. personally, I cant see roby playing ahead of bess. Fair question: I can't say who he would "start over.' But with a full year in the system, and very good perimeter defense, I'm just guessing the senior gets a chance to start -- at least initially. He has a big advantage right away, with all his experience. MBM's might be pleasantly surprised to see how DR looks with a better lineup around him. Kshoe, I'd agree about the potential factor in ranking players, but when the rubber meets the road in game one in Nov., experience makes a difference. So no, come November, I doubt if DR would be ranked the 8th best player. Anyway, Bess is actually a different sort of player than DR, who is clearly a guard and is shooting the 3 ball pretty well this year; so yes, I can definitely see it. I imagine Bess not matching up well against perimeter guys in the A10, but I could be wrong about that. Bess actually reminds me of that Butler kid who was not so big but really a low post player/rebounder/tough inside defender (too lazy to look his name up right now); don't worry, Bess will get plenty of minutes. Henriquez is definitely starting, IMHO, and very likely our leading scorer from day one; Goodwin, if completely healed and ready to go, should start; and I don't see how you keep French on the bench (no bench for French)..... Minutes will work out fine and also, if someone is hurt, there can always be a red shirt and a couple of very good players on the bench, which has been a major problem this year. Also, we might end up playing a fair amount of 3-guard lineup, given the roster and style of play Coach Ford likes; so as I've often said on here you can throw out the old 1-2-3-4-5 view of minutes, to some extent. Just aren't that many skilled 5s anymore, including in the A10... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorB Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 13 hours ago, Glorydays2013 said: Literally every player coming in is leagues above everyone we have right now. No. Can't agree and I think people underestimate how much players are already improving in just a few months, and how a Conklin summer and even more experience factors into this. I love the new guys, cannot wait to see them in action; but I've also watched them on the court with our current players too. Let's not get ahead of ourselves; enjoy the ride cuz it aint gonna happen overnight, like someone hitting a light switch and suddenly in Nov. we are back in the top 25. Leagues above?? C'mon man! Gotta love our 2 freshmen but news alert: they will still be freshmen in November... It's actually 2018-19 that I'm drooling over .... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 53 minutes ago, DoctorB said: No. Can't agree and I think people underestimate how much players are already improving in just a few months, and how a Conklin summer and even more experience factors into this. I love the new guys, cannot wait to see them in action; but I've also watched them on the court with our current players too. Let's not get ahead of ourselves; enjoy the ride cuz it aint gonna happen overnight, like someone hitting a light switch and suddenly in Nov. we are back in the top 25. Leagues above?? C'mon man! Gotta love our 2 freshmen but news alert: they will still be freshmen in November... It's actually 2018-19 that I'm drooling over .... someone on this board said we would be in the top 25 next year? I agree that wont happen since we will pretty much have no bench worthy of playing double digit minutes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bizziken Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 18 hours ago, brianstl said: I am just trying to figure out where all these minutes are going to come for JJ, DR, JB and EW to be significant returnees. There are still only 200 minutes available in a game and these are guys that are currently playing on the 291st best team in the country according to Pomeroy. Either we aren't going to be much improved next season or at least two out of those four will be riding the bench for the most part. I would expect the rotation to vary from game to game, which will average out the minutes of our 10 man arsenal. Depending on the match-up, sometimes we'll play 'big' and go with 3 inside guys for the majority of the time and sometimes we may go to a predominantly 4 guard lineup. I am really excited about the flexibility that we should have next season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glorydays2013 Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 2 hours ago, DoctorB said: Gotta love our 2 freshmen but news alert: they will still be freshmen in November These are the 2 highest ranked recruits we have had since ESPN rankings came out. I think we will be fine Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glorydays2013 Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 1 hour ago, billiken_roy said: someone on this board said we would be in the top 25 next year? If we have a decent schedule in fall and dominate conference play I don't see why not. Schools will be terrified of us again next year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMM28 Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, Glorydays2013 said: If we have a decent schedule in fall and dominate conference play I don't see why not. Schools will be terrified of us again next year That's a little aggressive. I'd be happy with a 16 to 18 win season where the team is playing its best ball at the end of the year. Maybe win a couple at the A10 tourney and play in a CBI/CIT type thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, JMM28 said: That's a little aggressive. I'd be happy with a 16 to 18 win season where the team is playing its best ball at the end of the year. Maybe win a couple at the A10 tourney and play in a CBI/CIT type thing. -I don't know about the number of wins but I agree about playing better at the end of the year and from there who knows? hopefully the coaches are learning or will learn from this season about minutes guys are playing and I understand the reason for the minutes this season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3star_recruit Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 When we added Lisch and Liddell and virtually nothing else, we went from 9 to 16 wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 8 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said: When we added Lisch and Liddell and virtually nothing else, we went from 9 to 16 wins. That was the first season in the A10. The schedule was much softer that season than the year before. The team's Pomeroy rating went from 166 to 125. It will be almost impossible to have a weaker schedule next season. The team's out of conference schedule ranked 302 this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moytoy12 Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 Bishop isn't going anywhere and he's going to prove a lot of people wrong next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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