The Bills over SIU-e by 2

[The Wiz]

Yes ...you read it correctly...This Sat you have a chance to see 1/2 of our projected wins for the rest of the season.

But as you can see by the spread , it won't be easy (never is) nor is it a sure thing .

The Bills ( still F+ )  come in with a slash line of 39/ 30 / 63...translating that into a GPA of....F-/ F/ F ...throw in the TOs at D and that's why we are where we are. Meanwhile, the SIU-e line looks very familiar....39/ 32/ 66...They are us. Their strong suit is defending the 3 (B )...Overall on defense,  we have the edge C- to D-  They have 2 sharpshooters. From the arc Harris and Henry are shooting 44 and 43....and don't foul Eslik...80 FT%

For us to win...we need less TOs and a better FG% than the Cougars....13 TOs or less and 40 FG%

Bottom line.....This will be a close game most of the way. Like us, SIU-e is not a good team. They just lost to Mo Western ( Div 2 ) at Eville.  So if they are D- why do we have the edge...home field . . the difference might be you all.  

Protect the ball

[AnkielBreakers]

I hope Zeke Moore plays the entire game. He is the only guard with a decent turnover ratio, decent defense, and decent points per minute.

[hsmith19]

9 minutes ago, AnkielBreakers said:

I hope Zeke Moore plays the entire game. He is the only guard with a decent turnover ratio, decent defense, and decent points per minute.

Agree. He's also the only one with an outside shot that inspires any sort of confidence. Probably only good for 10-15 minutes in a year or two, but right now he might be our best player.

[RUBillsFan]

17 minutes ago, AnkielBreakers said:

I hope Zeke Moore plays the entire game. He is the only guard with a decent turnover ratio, decent defense, and decent points per minute.

Another reason Zeke should be getting more minutes is that the Billikens seem to be falling apart down the stretch.  I'm wondering if the starters logging heavy minutes is taking a toll late in the game.  We've now seen nearly every game where the Bills have played like garbage (even worse garbage than usual) in the last 5 or 10 minutes of the game.

[slufan13]

1 minute ago, RUBillsFan said:

Another reason Zeke should be getting more minutes is that the Billikens seem to be falling apart down the stretch.  I'm wondering if the starters logging heavy minutes is taking a toll late in the game.  We've now seen nearly every game where the Bills have played like garbage (even worse garbage than usual) in the last 5 or 10 minutes of the game.

It's just proof that we're a team full of role players. All our guys look good in limited minutes but once they start logging big minutes, they struggle. Even Moore struggled down the stretch last night on both ends of the court. I agree he should keep playing more minutes though. 

[RiseAndGrind]

the freshman should be playing every possible minute. Play them all 40 if they can.

Who cares.

[CBFan]

Play the freshman.

To use a Wiz idea Tick Tick Tick... count down to the 2017 - 2018 season get the freshman ready.

[Soderball]

2 hours ago, RUBillsFan said:

Another reason Zeke should be getting more minutes is that the Billikens seem to be falling apart down the stretch.  I'm wondering if the starters logging heavy minutes is taking a toll late in the game.  We've now seen nearly every game where the Bills have played like garbage (even worse garbage than usual) in the last 5 or 10 minutes of the game.

inexplicable sequencez where Ford plays neufeld for three minutes are the real problem. i was in cdale last night.. neufeld may have lost that game singlehandedly due to his nonpresence offensively and especially defensively. it was bad. even gillman could play some semblence of defense.. unsure why he wasnt in over neufeld.

[RUBillsFan]

21 hours ago, Soderball said:

inexplicable sequencez where Ford plays neufeld for three minutes are the real problem. i was in cdale last night.. neufeld may have lost that game singlehandedly due to his nonpresence offensively and especially defensively. it was bad. even gillman could play some semblence of defense.. unsure why he wasnt in over neufeld.

Agreed.  Take a look at their career stats.  I know Gillmann is a junior and Neufeld is only a soph, but Gillmann has actually shown a lot more even earlier in his career when you look at the stats.

Add in that (I think) they are actually the same age since Neufeld did a year at prep school and Neufeld might not be in his best shape since he had mono over the summer and it makes no sense to play him at all much less giving him minutes over Gillmann.  

[hsmith19]

Neither one should be a D1 center, but Gillmann has decent hands under the basket, is a decent passer for a big man, and can shoot an occasional three. Neufeld's got nothing.

[Billboy1]

Gillman cannot control the ball has it stripped a lot and looks lost on offense and weak on defense.

[Soderball]

1 hour ago, hsmith19 said:

Neither one should be a D1 center, but Gillmann has decent hands under the basket, is a decent passer for a big man, and can shoot an occasional three. Neufeld's got nothing.

Gillman has none of those things. This post is pure crazy. Kool-aid overdose. Majerus would make you hold his locker room towel for these comments.

 

Gillman has a pulse, Neufeld, in terms of game play, does not. The Billikens would be better off playing 4 men than playing Neufeld. I mean that without a shred of sarcasm. Gillman is at least better than playing 4 men.

Gillman and Neufeld both need to go this summer.

If one stays, Gillman will be a senior and is a st louis son.

Neufeld is at his soph year.. the prime transfer year.. Just go, kid.

[Old guy]

As per team rankings the vegas implied scores are SLU 68.5, SIUE 65. The spread in favor of SLU is 3.5.

[The Pelican]

Bovada has SLU -3. O/U at 134. 

[slubillikens43]

2 hours ago, The Pelican said:

Bovada has SLU -3. O/U at 134. 

It's -5 and O/U is 132 now

[billikenfan05]

I took the bills

[The Pelican]

54 minutes ago, billikenfan05 said:

I took the bills

Looking like a good bet....

[The Wiz]

Before I get started...an important  point of information....Tre Harris, the leading scorer for SIU-e,  did not play today...Official line was that he left the team for personal reasons....averages 13 pts a game....one of the reasons the line shot up at the last minute and a definite difference maker in the spread.

Now onto the review.....

In the original post , i said we needed 13 TOs or less...we got 13 ...check...I said we needed  40% FG%...actual...47%...check.

So we are rainbows and subshine again..right?....While we did have have a nice slash line 47/45 /57...there are still clouds on the horizon.  The FTs have been poor ..we needed an  additional 3  shots made for a decent line.  While we didn't need them ,to win the game, they might have been important if Harris had played.  Also,  a big improvement on TOs which is important.  But the numbers  still carry  a concern. A great 1st half with only 3 TOs ...but the 2nd half produced 10...which again puts us on track for the ill fated 20 / gm.... Finally, something we haven't talked about much this year but has been lurking as it has been for the last 2 years...the dead zone. Starting at the 1:23 mark in the 1st half...the Bills went for 7 min 3 sec without a basket. During that time 5 TOs

OK the rant part is over. Let's talk about the good stuff.   We shot a fabulous 45% from 3....But you say ...yeah but it was Edwardsville...I don't care if it is Edwardsville or Duke ...45% is 45%...The shooting parade was lead by Crawford with an impressive 71% (5-7) including 80% from the arc (4-5) True it is only 1 game but if he finds his shot there could be a few surprise victories down the road. Another one who found himself tonight was Agbeko...20 pts, 9 reb. he needs to keep it going. and finally Roby with 11 reb made a nice contribution. A tip o' the cap to the defense for holding the Cougars to 33/17/ 78.

Bottom line...savor the victory...and build on it.

[Old guy]

Wiz, I am glad to read the positive tone of this last post and hope, against the statistics if you wish, to see more of these this season. 

[Soderball]

2 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Before I get started...an important  point of information....Tre Harris, the leading scorer for SIU-e,  did not play today...Official line was that he left the team for personal reasons....averages 13 pts a game....one of the reasons the line shot up at the last minute and a definite difference maker in the spread.

Now onto the review.....

In the original post , i said we needed 13 TOs or less...we got 13 ...check...I said we needed  40% FG%...actual...47%...check.

So we are rainbows and subshine again..right?....While we did have have a nice slash line 47/45 /57...there are still clouds on the horizon.  The FTs have been poor ..we needed an  additional 3  shots made for a decent line.  While we didn't need them ,to win the game, they might have been important if Harris had played.  Also,  a big improvement on TOs which is important.  But the numbers  still carry  a concern. A great 1st half with only 3 TOs ...but the 2nd half produced 10...which again puts us on track for the ill fated 20 / gm.... Finally, something we haven't talked about much this year but has been lurking as it has been for the last 2 years...the dead zone. Starting at the 1:23 mark in the 1st half...the Bills went for 7 min 3 sec without a basket. During that time 5 TOs

OK the rant part is over. Let's talk about the good stuff.   We shot a fabulous 45% from 3....But you say ...yeah but it was Edwardsville...I don't care if it is Edwardsville or Duke ...45% is 45%...The shooting parade was lead by Crawford with an impressive 71% (5-7) including 80% from the arc (4-5) True it is only 1 game but if he finds his shot there could be a few surprise victories down the road. Another one who found himself tonight was Agbeko...20 pts, 9 reb. he needs to keep it going. and finally Roby with 11 reb made a nice contribution. A tip o' the cap to the defense for holding the Cougars to 33/17/ 78.

Bottom line...savor the victory...and build on it.

Didn't realize that Tre didn't play.

[cheeseman]

8 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Before I get started...an important  point of information....Tre Harris, the leading scorer for SIU-e,  did not play today...Official line was that he left the team for personal reasons....averages 13 pts a game....one of the reasons the line shot up at the last minute and a definite difference maker in the spread.

Now onto the review.....

In the original post , i said we needed 13 TOs or less...we got 13 ...check...I said we needed  40% FG%...actual...47%...check.

So we are rainbows and subshine again..right?....While we did have have a nice slash line 47/45 /57...there are still clouds on the horizon.  The FTs have been poor ..we needed an  additional 3  shots made for a decent line.  While we didn't need them ,to win the game, they might have been important if Harris had played.  Also,  a big improvement on TOs which is important.  But the numbers  still carry  a concern. A great 1st half with only 3 TOs ...but the 2nd half produced 10...which again puts us on track for the ill fated 20 / gm.... Finally, something we haven't talked about much this year but has been lurking as it has been for the last 2 years...the dead zone. Starting at the 1:23 mark in the 1st half...the Bills went for 7 min 3 sec without a basket. During that time 5 TOs

OK the rant part is over. Let's talk about the good stuff.   We shot a fabulous 45% from 3....But you say ...yeah but it was Edwardsville...I don't care if it is Edwardsville or Duke ...45% is 45%...The shooting parade was lead by Crawford with an impressive 71% (5-7) including 80% from the arc (4-5) True it is only 1 game but if he finds his shot there could be a few surprise victories down the road. Another one who found himself tonight was Agbeko...20 pts, 9 reb. he needs to keep it going. and finally Roby with 11 reb made a nice contribution. A tip o' the cap to the defense for holding the Cougars to 33/17/ 78.

Bottom line...savor the victory...and build on it.

My only question about your point regarding Tre Harris is we did not have Bishop and we had a walk on running our point so did this not impact us negatively?  All I am saying is if they lost 13 ppg what did we lose on paper by missing Bishop and having Hines play?  Your right about the FTs - not sure what it is but I am beginning to think it is the curse of the Billikens.  Whoever comes here forgets how to shoot FTs it seems.  You are also right about the "dead zones".  Not sure how a team can keep doing this but we seem to have these problems.  This is why against decent teams we see our leads evaporate and we can not get them back - you can not go 7 minutes without scoring a basket and not expect your opponent to make up a 10 pt. deficient.  Enjoyed watching the game but I am not fooling myself either.

[MusicCityBilliken]

It was obvious that SIUE has a lot of off-the-court unresolved issues.

Earlier suspension Tre Harris, SIUE leading scorer, with no explanation given. Then during the game 3 T's that come from overly aggressive behavior that was unprovoked. One stupid T by Anderson killed some momentum SIUE was mounting.  

A lot of acting-out behavior. Jon Harris has his work cut out with that crew.

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, cheeseman said:

My only question about your point regarding Tre Harris is we did not have Bishop and we had a walk on running our point so did this not impact us negatively?  All I am saying is if they lost 13 ppg what did we lose on paper by missing Bishop and having Hines play?  Your right about the FTs - not sure what it is but I am beginning to think it is the curse of the Billikens.  Whoever comes here forgets how to shoot FTs it seems.  You are also right about the "dead zones".  Not sure how a team can keep doing this but we seem to have these problems.  This is why against decent teams we see our leads evaporate and we can not get them back - you can not go 7 minutes without scoring a basket and not expect your opponent to make up a 10 pt. deficient.  Enjoyed watching the game but I am not fooling myself either.

Good question....What about the impact of the loss of Bishop?

The short answer is the loss of Harris was much greater on SUI-e than the loss of Bishop on SLU. That is the short answer.

The long answer is....

Hines vs Bishop ...in this game.. as Hines was the main replacement playing a whopping 37 min compared to a normal 11 min. Bishop under normal circumstances would have scored 12 pts in this game. Hines would have scored 3....a deficit of 9.  However, Hines scored 8 because of the extra time ..an extra 5 ..cutting the deficit to 4. Now we come to the area I harp on.....TOs....Bishop would have had 4 TOs in this game...Hines had an impressive 1 TO for 37 min...a net gain of 3 less TOs  or adding an additional 6 pts to the spread. ( a little off of SIU-e and a little more to us)...That 6 pts takes the remaining 4 pt deficit to a 2 pt positive.  So I am arguing that in this game with the loss of Bishop we actually had a 2pt gain with Hines in there. What Branch Rickey use to call ...addition by subtraction.  Now obviously there is more to it than just that...better shooting and other players picking up the slack....  but that is the simplified long version....also  don't forget the words ..."in this game"

Just a little more on TOs in general. I believe the TO is responsible for a lot of the "dead zones " of this season and the last 2 seasons. Besides the loss of points , you have the loss of rhythm in the game. It is disruptive....It effects shooting percentages. ...the entire slash line is affected (yes even the FTs) When you give up 20+ TOs in a game ....it is as though you are under a full court press for the entire game....It affects your focus and concentration.. 

At the Bills Xmas part yesterday , I was happy to hear Ford talk about how we need to improve on TOs and FTs. It was almost like he was reading some of my posts. Bottom line is Ford gets it.  And if we can keep TOs down we will win an extra few games and be competitive in the rest....Protect the ball.

One last thing...Hines normal ratio of TO/gm  if ramped up to Bishop's minutes would be 3.3/ gm vs Bishop's  normal 3.6 /gm. So Hines is only slightly better overall. That is why the words "in this game" are important. He had a good game.

[HoosierPal]

41 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Good question....What about the impact of the loss of Bishop?

The short answer is the loss of Harris was much greater on SUI-e than the loss of Bishop on SLU. That is the short answer.

The long answer is....

Hines vs Bishop ...in this game.. as Hines was the main replacement playing a whopping 37 min compared to a normal 11 min. Bishop under normal circumstances would have scored 12 pts in this game. Hines would have scored 3....a deficit of 9.  However, Hines scored 8 because of the extra time ..an extra 5 ..cutting the deficit to 4. Now we come to the area I harp on.....TOs....Bishop would have had 4 TOs in this game...Hines had an impressive 1 TO for 37 min...a net gain of 3 less TOs  or adding an additional 6 pts to the spread. ( a little off of SIU-e and a little more to us)...That 6 pts takes the remaining 4 pt deficit to a 2 pt positive.  So I am arguing that in this game with the loss of Bishop we actually had a 2pt gain with Hines in there. What Branch Rickey use to call ...addition by subtraction.  Now obviously there is more to it than just that...better shooting and other players picking up the slack....  but that is the simplified long version....also  don't forget the words ..."in this game"

Just a little more on TOs in general. I believe the TO is responsible for a lot of the "dead zones " of this season and the last 2 seasons. Besides the loss of points , you have the loss of rhythm in the game. It is disruptive....It effects shooting percentages. ...the entire slash line is affected (yes even the FTs) When you give up 20+ TOs in a game ....it is as though you are under a full court press for the entire game....It affects your focus and concentration.. 

At the Bills Xmas part yesterday , I was happy to hear Ford talk about how we need to improve on TOs and FTs. It was almost like he was reading some of my posts. Bottom line is Ford gets it.  And if we can keep TOs down we will win an extra few games and be competitive in the rest....Protect the ball.

One last thing...Hines normal ratio of TO/gm  if ramped up to Bishop's minutes would be 3.3/ gm vs Bishop's  normal 3.6 /gm. So Hines is only slightly better overall. That is why the words "in this game" are important. He had a good game.

The same analysis could be done on Harris versus his replacement, which would be very difficult for you to track.  Who took his minutes and how did he perform?   It could have been more than one player.  Your statistical analysis, which I agree with, shows a +2 for this game with Hines.  So we factor out (or in depending n your viewpoint) Harris' 13 points, but what is put in as his replacement?  But I also agree, Hines had maybe his best game as a Billiken.

[cheeseman]

1 hour ago, The Wiz said:

Good question....What about the impact of the loss of Bishop?

The short answer is the loss of Harris was much greater on SUI-e than the loss of Bishop on SLU. That is the short answer.

The long answer is....

Hines vs Bishop ...in this game.. as Hines was the main replacement playing a whopping 37 min compared to a normal 11 min. Bishop under normal circumstances would have scored 12 pts in this game. Hines would have scored 3....a deficit of 9.  However, Hines scored 8 because of the extra time ..an extra 5 ..cutting the deficit to 4. Now we come to the area I harp on.....TOs....Bishop would have had 4 TOs in this game...Hines had an impressive 1 TO for 37 min...a net gain of 3 less TOs  or adding an additional 6 pts to the spread. ( a little off of SIU-e and a little more to us)...That 6 pts takes the remaining 4 pt deficit to a 2 pt positive.  So I am arguing that in this game with the loss of Bishop we actually had a 2pt gain with Hines in there. What Branch Rickey use to call ...addition by subtraction.  Now obviously there is more to it than just that...better shooting and other players picking up the slack....  but that is the simplified long version....also  don't forget the words ..."in this game"

Just a little more on TOs in general. I believe the TO is responsible for a lot of the "dead zones " of this season and the last 2 seasons. Besides the loss of points , you have the loss of rhythm in the game. It is disruptive....It effects shooting percentages. ...the entire slash line is affected (yes even the FTs) When you give up 20+ TOs in a game ....it is as though you are under a full court press for the entire game....It affects your focus and concentration.. 

At the Bills Xmas part yesterday , I was happy to hear Ford talk about how we need to improve on TOs and FTs. It was almost like he was reading some of my posts. Bottom line is Ford gets it.  And if we can keep TOs down we will win an extra few games and be competitive in the rest....Protect the ball.

One last thing...Hines normal ratio of TO/gm  if ramped up to Bishop's minutes would be 3.3/ gm vs Bishop's  normal 3.6 /gm. So Hines is only slightly better overall. That is why the words "in this game" are important. He had a good game.

I understand what you are saying but you can not use the #s that Hines produced in this game to say we were better off without Bishop using his season avgs.  You would have to use Hines season avgs.  So, I think Hines season avgs extended out would not  have produced what he actually did in this game - if wrong then educate me.  I would also think if Hines performed above in this game then I would assume so would have Bishop.