The Bills over SIU-e by 2

[billiken_roy]

We are seriously debating the play of our players after an siue game?   Proof of how far this program has fallen.   

The takeaways yesterday, both positive and negative, our two best players were our seniors who won't be around next year when the billikens begin their turnaround.  Great to see Reggie and Mike have wonderful games though.   So happy for them as I am sure their billiken experience haso not been what they signed up for when they committed to Saint Louis university in high school.

  I am concerned that we continue to show we have possibly zero depth next year and our entire all new starters will have to log 35 minutes per game for the billikens to compete.   Those of you thinking any of our underclassmen have shown anything to prove otherwise thus far haven't been watching the same games I have seen.   Let's remember our games vs Wichita or a k-state game to get a better view who can competently support our new starters next year.  We will be held back from ncaa contention until we have 3 or 4 legitimate subs.   I fear those days are likely at least two if not 3 seasons away yet.   

Not on the floor observations:

Very disappointing that our typically powerful band showed up at 33% strength.   I ask why for the first time in years a call to us alumni that have sat in for the band over Xmas break when asked to help out was not made?  

Attendance yesterday....... no way there were over 2000 people in the building.   Worst attended game in chaifetz  history.   Truly brought us full circle to the ekkertime days.   

Overall top Highlight of the day was the billiken club Xmas party pre-game.   Well done and very much appreciated.   

 

[Westy03]

1 minute ago, billiken_roy said:

We are seriously debating the play of our players after an siue game?   Proof of how far this program has fallen.   

The takeaways yesterday, both positive and negative, our two best players were our seniors who won't be around next year when the billikens begin their turnaround.  Great to see Reggie and Mike have wonderful games though.   So happy for them as I am sure their billiken experience haso not been what they signed up for when they committed to Saint Louis university in high school.

  I am concerned that we continue to show we have possibly zero depth next year and our entire all new starters will have to log 35 minutes per game for the billikens to compete.   Those of you thinking any of our underclassmen have shown anything to prove otherwise thus far haven't been watching the same games I have seen.   Let's remember our games vs Wichita or a k-state game to get a better view who can competently support our new starters next year.  We will be held back from ncaa contention until we have 3 or 4 legitimate subs.   I fear those days are likely at least two if not 3 seasons away yet.   

 

 

 

Spot on Roy. This team will not be a NCAA team next unless we miracously get 3 additional players that can contribute right away. Our depth will be a disaster next year with the exception of Roby. He will be decent. On top of it, it will take the transfers a while to get the rust off. We have seen this a lot with players missing a year, even kwamain. I don't think it will take 3 years but this will not be an instant turnaround. 

[Old guy]

Hoosier pal, one small point about  your post. Statistical analysis requires a repetitive action repeated a number of times, like flipping a coin. When you have a game and are comparing the results obtained by Hines in a single game (a single game result, a raw measure, not an average of several games) vs the averages put up by Bishop you are comparing a statistical measure versus a raw measure. This is not a statistical analysis because whatever Hines did in the last game, which was a good game for him, cannot be compared statistically to an average of what Bishop has done so far in the season. It would be different to compare Bishop's best game to Hines' best game which was yesterday, but this would not have been adequate either since the opposition would have been different in rank and ability to play, etc... Numbers can pretend to be statistical analysis but in reality be deceiving. Hines played very well last night, and probably deserves further playing time this season.

[The Wiz]

44 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

The same analysis could be done on Harris versus his replacement, which would be very difficult for you to track.  Who took his minutes and how did he perform?   It could have been more than one player.  Your statistical analysis, which I agree with, shows a +2 for this game with Hines.  So we factor out (or in depending n your viewpoint) Harris' 13 points, but what is put in as his replacement?  But I also agree, Hines had maybe his best game as a Billiken.

You are correct... I did spend more time analyzing the Bills than SIU-e because as a Bills board people are more interested in the Bills than the Cougars.  But to your point, Simmons and especially Thorton  were able to make up most of the difference of Harris missing.  However the difference between the Bills and the Cougars yesterday was that the Bills had other players besides Hines step up and have a good game...Agbeko, Crawford and Roby... while SIU-e's other players actually regressed and help widen the spread.

[Old guy]

Roy, what you are seeing in terms of the attendance at the games and the size of the band playing at the game shows the lack of enthusiasm among the public and the band for this season, coupled with the nasty weather conditions for the drive into the Chaifetz we had yesterday. Next game will be Wintrhop, Friday the 22nd, the weather is supposed to be better that day. We will see if the better weather improves the attendance or the size of the band. Only 1 tuba in the band yesterday (they have played as much as 7 tubas in a game this season), they did not have the ring of tubas in the court while playing the budwiser song during the game yesterday because they were not going to have the single tuba down there by itself. We will see what happens in the Winthrop game. 

[The Wiz]

16 minutes ago, cheeseman said:

I understand what you are saying but you can not use the #s that Hines produced in this game to say we were better off without Bishop using his season avgs.  You would have to use Hines season avgs.  So, I think Hines season avgs extended out would not  have produced what he actually did in this game - if wrong then educate me.  I would also think if Hines performed above in this game then I would assume so would have Bishop.

Well since Bishop didn't play , I had to use hypothetical Bishop (what he usually does) versus real world Hines who actually played in the game.  Had Hines not played either, . I could have used your scenario   hypothetical Hines vs hypothetical Bishop ...but then what would be the point. I was trying to compare what happened with what could have happened using Bishop's averages vs Hines's real world game....in other words ...what is most probable.

[Old guy]

Care to comment on my post Wiz, I know I say more or less the same that cheeseman said, but still would like to see how you expand the results of a single game into an estimate of "what is most probable."

[billiken_roy]

Those of you inferring bishops average numbers legitimize him somehow, I suggest you might be looking at the box score more than remembering the actual games played.   The majority of games it seemed to me bishop stuffed his statistical line after the game was more or less decided and the players down the opponents bench were in the game.   I suggest checking the stats at halftime of Wichita or kstate for a more demonstrative indication of his value to the billiken success.

This all said, personally I excuse some of the ineffective play imo if what I see in bishop by my opinion that bishop is out of position.   He is not a point / lead guard and would probably fair much better used as say Virgil cobbin or drew diener was finding seams and making shots.    Not his fault he is asked to be a player he can't be.  

[The Wiz]

19 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Care to comment on my post Wiz, I know I say more or less the same that cheeseman said, but still would like to see how you expand the results of a single game into an estimate of "what is most probable."

I thought my cheeseman response answered your post too.  But to elaborate, since Bishop didn't play, I used his season numbers to indicate "what is most probable" I compared them to Hines who did play  so we didn't have to do hypothetical...he actually played.  I in know way meant to imply this game was his averages or that this is the "new" Hines. That is why in the above posts I use the phrase ..."in this game"

[waldo027]

1 hour ago, Westy03 said:

Spot on Roy. This team will not be a NCAA team next unless we miracously get 3 additional players that can contribute right away. Our depth will be a disaster next year with the exception of Roby. He will be decent. On top of it, it will take the transfers a while to get the rust off. We have seen this a lot with players missing a year, even kwamain. I don't think it will take 3 years but this will not be an instant turnaround. 

Agreed, if everything comes together next year then NIT maybe. The team will have a freshman PG, depth issues, and several key players that have never played together. I still expect at least 3 new faces that we don't know about yet to go along with Goodwin and French. Maybe another key transfer that will be eligible in 18-19.

[AnkielBreakers]

It is definitely unreasonable to expect next years team to be an NCAA team simply because we have not seen them play.  However, I think this board is really panicking too much about next year.  They already have 5 new faces that may all start, and look like substantial upgrades. The front court will be better next year than anytime since Willie Reed was here, and maybe better than that time.  The backcourt may lack an efficient pg, but it may not, there is no guarantee.  I think there is still a scholarship available, assuming Hines is not on scholarship next year.  5th year transfer maybe.

In either case, some of the players from this team could really develop.  Obviously, ZM has shown potential.  Roby and Bishop could both contribute if they work on turnovers. Wellmer is really meant to be a 5-10 minute contributor with his shot.

It will be a very different team.

[bonwich]

2 hours ago, Old guy said:

Roy, what you are seeing in terms of the attendance at the games and the size of the band playing at the game shows the lack of enthusiasm among the public and the band for this season, coupled with the nasty weather conditions for the drive into the Chaifetz we had yesterday. Next game will be Wintrhop, Friday the 22nd, the weather is supposed to be better that day. We will see if the better weather improves the attendance or the size of the band. Only 1 tuba in the band yesterday (they have played as much as 7 tubas in a game this season), they did not have the ring of tubas in the court while playing the budwiser song during the game yesterday because they were not going to have the single tuba down there by itself. We will see what happens in the Winthrop game. 

I can predict Friday's attendance exactly. It will be 1. 

[Old guy]

How many zeroes after the 1, Bonwich?

[CBFan]

2 hours ago, billiken_roy said:

We are seriously debating the play of our players after an siue game?   Proof of how far this program has fallen.   

The takeaways yesterday, both positive and negative, our two best players were our seniors who won't be around next year when the billikens begin their turnaround.  Great to see Reggie and Mike have wonderful games though.   So happy for them as I am sure their billiken experience haso not been what they signed up for when they committed to Saint Louis university in high school.

  I am concerned that we continue to show we have possibly zero depth next year and our entire all new starters will have to log 35 minutes per game for the billikens to compete.   Those of you thinking any of our underclassmen have shown anything to prove otherwise thus far haven't been watching the same games I have seen.   Let's remember our games vs Wichita or a k-state game to get a better view who can competently support our new starters next year.  We will be held back from ncaa contention until we have 3 or 4 legitimate subs.   I fear those days are likely at least two if not 3 seasons away yet.   

Not on the floor observations:

Very disappointing that our typically powerful band showed up at 33% strength.   I ask why for the first time in years a call to us alumni that have sat in for the band over Xmas break when asked to help out was not made?  

Attendance yesterday....... no way there were over 2000 people in the building.   Worst attended game in chaifetz  history.   Truly brought us full circle to the ekkertime days.   

Overall top Highlight of the day was the billiken club Xmas party pre-game.   Well done and very much appreciated.   

 

Respectfully Roy I think Bishop, Roby, Johnson, Moore, and Welmer will be able to contribute off of the bench next season.  There will be better players around them and they will have another year of experience.  If that works out then that gives next seasons team a 10 man rotation and enough to have a 20 win season.

I am just a fan though not a player analyzer but I try to evaluate what I see and I think Roby gets hot at times and plays good defense, Zeke Moore has a nice stroke on his shot, Elliot Welmer can defend and make some 3 point shots, Bishop has his games where he can score, and Johnson I'll go with what the A10 has said about him pre-season.

[billiken_roy]

Respectfully,  I think you are only noticing the best of a bad roster.   I think the drop off in talent between our current active roster and our at least 5 newbies for next year is emence.  If I had a magic wand,  I wouldn't keep any of them

[Westy03]

I just don't see it with Welmer bishop or Johnson. Moore at least can shoot it. 

Bishop is an undersized SG but doesn't have the quickness needed to be undersized and still gets abused on defense. Welmer is what a 21 year old freshman? He should be playing a lot better even against sub par competition. Johnson just looks completely lost out there on both ends of the court and not athletic, I can see some potential with him though. 

[CBFan]

16 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

Respectfully,  I think you are only noticing the best of a bad roster.   I think the drop off in talent between our current active roster and our at least 5 newbies for next year is emence.  If I had a magic wand,  I wouldn't keep any of them

That is sad if you are right about those guys and you are spot on about me that I notice the best because I do live in Billiken dream land.

That is why I enjoying reading the posts it brings me back to reality.

[Quality Is Job 1]

34 minutes ago, Old guy said:

How many zeroes after the 1, Bonwich?

As many zeroes as you want, as long as there's a decimal first.  You're missing the fact that you said "Friday" (which is actually the 23rd, not the 22nd), and the game is Thursday.

[3star_recruit]

Nice to see the team put together two games where they shot well from the outside. Hope it continues against Winthrop. They need to play with confidence going into the conference schedule.

Most of teams in our conference have looked shaky thus far. We may be able to pull off an upset or two in January if we can get timely shooting.

[bauman]

I haven't seen any comment on MN not playing in a game against SIU-E.  If he can't get in a game against a team like that I think that says something about his future at SLU.  In fact, I wonder if he hasn't told TF that he is planning to transfer at the semester break, or is it too late for that?  Anyway, the fact that MN and AG totaled 1, yes one, minute combined against such a weak opponent tells us something about their ability to contribute in A-10 play and next year. 

While I usually agree with Broy, I have to disagree with his opinion on some of the players.  I don't think Bishop is as weak as Roy thinks.  I think JB can be a big part of next years' team.  ZM also is a player that can contribute next year, as is DR.  JJ, not so much.  He just doesn't seem athletic enough to overcome his average skill set.  EW will be fine as a short term sub, getting no more than 10 minutes in the normal game.  AG and MN----------goodbye.

Two solid additions for next year would be welcome and two more the following year to accompany CG would really put us on the map.

[Old guy]

3 hours ago, Quality Is Job 1 said:

As many zeroes as you want, as long as there's a decimal first.  You're missing the fact that you said "Friday" (which is actually the 23rd, not the 22nd), and the game is Thursday.

Right you are it is on Thursday, Dec 22nd. 

[3star_recruit]

19 minutes ago, bauman said:

I don't think Bishop is as weak as Roy thinks.  I think JB can be a big part of next years' team.  ZM also is a player that can contribute next year, as is DR.  JJ, not so much.  He just doesn't seem athletic enough to overcome his average skill set.  EW will be fine as a short term sub, getting no more than 10 minutes in the normal game.  AG and MN----------goodbye.

It's got to be frustrating for Bishop to rush down the floor to initiate the offense only for the ball end up right back in his hands with 7 seconds left on the shot clock. Having guys who can attack and finish at the rim is going to make Bishop's life so much easier. And getting easy buckets in transition will mitigate the scoring droughts. Halfcourt offense has never been a strength of Coach Ford's teams. Being undermanned only exacerbates the problem.

[kmbilliken]

2 hours ago, bauman said:

I haven't seen any comment on MN not playing in a game against SIU-E.  If he can't get in a game against a team like that I think that says something about his future at SLU.  In fact, I wonder if he hasn't told TF that he is planning to transfer at the semester break, or is it too late for that?  Anyway, the fact that MN and AG totaled 1, yes one, minute combined against such a weak opponent tells us something about their ability to contribute in A-10 play and next year. 

While I usually agree with Broy, I have to disagree with his opinion on some of the players.  I don't think Bishop is as weak as Roy thinks.  I think JB can be a big part of next years' team.  ZM also is a player that can contribute next year, as is DR.  JJ, not so much.  He just doesn't seem athletic enough to overcome his average skill set.  EW will be fine as a short term sub, getting no more than 10 minutes in the normal game.  AG and MN----------goodbye.

Two solid additions for next year would be welcome and two more the following year to accompany CG would really put us on the map.

I think JJ has potential as an inside player if he could add 20 lbs. of muscle. That is easier said than done.

[Soderball]

19 hours ago, billiken_roy said:

We are seriously debating the play of our players after an siue game?   Proof of how far this program has fallen.   

The takeaways yesterday, both positive and negative, our two best players were our seniors who won't be around next year when the billikens begin their turnaround.  Great to see Reggie and Mike have wonderful games though.   So happy for them as I am sure their billiken experience haso not been what they signed up for when they committed to Saint Louis university in high school.

  I am concerned that we continue to show we have possibly zero depth next year and our entire all new starters will have to log 35 minutes per game for the billikens to compete.   Those of you thinking any of our underclassmen have shown anything to prove otherwise thus far haven't been watching the same games I have seen.   Let's remember our games vs Wichita or a k-state game to get a better view who can competently support our new starters next year.  We will be held back from ncaa contention until we have 3 or 4 legitimate subs.   I fear those days are likely at least two if not 3 seasons away yet.   

Not on the floor observations:

Very disappointing that our typically powerful band showed up at 33% strength.   I ask why for the first time in years a call to us alumni that have sat in for the band over Xmas break when asked to help out was not made?  

Attendance yesterday....... no way there were over 2000 people in the building.   Worst attended game in chaifetz  history.   Truly brought us full circle to the ekkertime days.   

Overall top Highlight of the day was the billiken club Xmas party pre-game.   Well done and very much appreciated.   

 

an SIUE team that was missing the leading scorer, second-year head coach(no other d1 HC jobs) and that committed 2 technicals AND 2 flagrants.

 

the billikens are horrible, folks. Hines is a walk on and not nearly as good as Phil Hunt was.

i was pretty disturbed by Jon Harris' management of the team. the on court behavior of the guard from Oakland was totally unacceptable. Jolly-like.

[brianstl]

17 hours ago, Westy03 said:

I just don't see it with Welmer bishop or Johnson. Moore at least can shoot it. 

Bishop is an undersized SG but doesn't have the quickness needed to be undersized and still gets abused on defense. Welmer is what a 21 year old freshman? He should be playing a lot better even against sub par competition. Johnson just looks completely lost out there on both ends of the court and not athletic, I can see some potential with him though. 

I think Roby and Moore could really benefit from a legitimate point guard.  I missed the the game Saturday, but just looking at the box score makes it appear that Roby was the biggest beneficiary of Hines best game as a Billiken.