Ford Hints at New Starting Lineup

[HoosierPal]

In his postgame interview, Ford stated he may tweak the starting lineup in order to get the team off to a better start.  Okay, who sits and who takes his place?  I'm sure all of the expert MBM's have opinions.  But I look at the six on the bench, two frogs, two bigs, and two walk-on's, and I'm not sure who that high energy guy is that will take the place of a current starter.  And which starter has looked not ready to go at the tip?

So here is my guess.  My high energy guy is Johnson, which means he has to take the place of either Crawford or Welmer.  I'm putting Crawford on the bench, for no other reason than Welmer has, in at least two games, had two of the first four or five buckets.  But I'm thinking Coach is as much keyed in on defense as offense, so I am likely wrong.   

[CBFan]

I have to agree with you HoosierPal I believe that is the most likely change.

Mike Crawford  playing more than JJ has not produced anything so far.

I would rather see JJ making mistakes than MC and see JJ gain much needed experience.

Also, I would like to see more time for Zeke Moore no matter how many mistakes he makes.

I was wrong about my win prediction for this team so play the future play the freshman a lot of minutes.

Finally, get a point guard or a great ball handler at least with the one scholarship for 2017.

 

[HoosierPal]

What is interesting is that at half time of half our games, Coach has gotten the team fired up and they come out playing like a true D1 team.  Why can't he get them fired up before the game?  Maybe he needs to get into some faces in the huddle before tip off.

[slufan13]

I'll start whoever won't give up wide open 3's to start the game. Honestly I think it could be more of a gameplan problem than a personnel problem, but I'm fine with changing things up if they help us out.

Did the math...We've been outscored by 11 points in our 6 games this season during the first 4 minutes of the game. Not as bad as I thought. 

[brianstl]

Over the last three games Crawford has doubled the points, tripled the assists and has one more rebound than Welmer.  Crawford, also, scored before Welmer in the BYU and Alabama game. Ford saw fit to play Crawford 38 minutes last night.  He led the team in minutes played.  Johnson got most of his time last night when Welmer was on the bench.  I don't think Ford sits Crawford over Welmer to start Johnson.  If Johnson starts it will be in Welmer's spot.

I sort of doubt a change will be made in the starting line-up right now.  If someone new does get inserted into the starting lineup I have a suspicion it would be Zeke.  Over something like his last 65 minutes played Zeke has 6 assists, five steals and zero turnovers.

 

[slufan13]

Per kenpom, Johnson has played 83% of his minutes at the 4 this season and 17% at the 3. 

[HoosierPal]

3 minutes ago, slufan13 said:

Per kenpom, Johnson has played 83% of his minutes at the 4 this season and 17% at the 3. 

That's an interesting stat.  I wonder how it is computed, based on who else is on the floor?  If Johnson and Welmer are on the floor at the same time, does kenpom credit Johnson with being a 3 simply because Welmer is credited as being the 4?  My recollection is that Johnson played in the 5 hole for a few minutes in an earlier game.  Does kenpom allow for no one to be in a spot, as in a 5?

[HoosierPal]

16 minutes ago, slufan13 said:

I'll start whoever won't give up wide open 3's to start the game. Honestly I think it could be more of a gameplan problem than a personnel problem, but I'm fine with changing things up if they help us out.

Did the math...We've been outscored by 11 points in our 6 games this season during the first 4 minutes of the game. Not as bad as I thought. 

I think Ford may agree with you.

[slufan13]

Here's the most frequent lineups over the past 5 games per kenpom. I would agree with their position designations for the most part.

[hsmith19]

21 minutes ago, brianstl said:

Over the last three games Crawford has doubled the points, tripled the assists and has one more rebound than Welmer.

Without looking it up, I am sure that is in part from Crawford taking more shots and playing more minutes. I don't really think Ford will bench Crawford, but I am getting sick of seeing him play for 30+ minutes every game. He's not shooting like himself, he's not helping win games now, and he won't be around next year. So what's the point of playing him so much? Last night was by far his best game of the year and he was still 1-7 or 1-8 from 3P.

[wgstl]

A new lineup may add spark, but Roby needs to be more aggressive.  He almost refuses to drive to the lane.  I don't have a problem with the starting 5, because its our best 5, they just need to change what they're doing and how they're playing. 

[slufan13]

Personally, I'd play all our guards less. Crawford because he's hurt and struggling, Roby because his legs give out at the end of games, Bishop because he's turning it over way too much. Let Johnson play the 3 and let Moore get more time in the backcourt. If you take 3 mins from each of those guys, they still play plenty and you get the frosh 5 more mins/game each. Obviously you still have to put competent lineups out there (meaning no Hines/Moore/Johnson backcourt), but I think it would be a good short-term and long-term move. 

[brianstl]

12 minutes ago, hsmith19 said:

Without looking it up, I am sure that is in part from Crawford taking more shots and playing more minutes. I don't really think Ford will bench Crawford, but I am getting sick of seeing him play for 30+ minutes every game. He's not shooting like himself, he's not helping win games now, and he won't be around next year. So what's the point of playing him so much? Last night was by far his best game of the year and he was still 1-7 or 1-8 from 3P.

Over the last 3 games Crawford has averaged 33.6 mpg and Welmer has averaged 28.3 mpg.  Crawford has shot 37% overall and Welmer 32%.  Crawford has shot 23% from the 3 and Welmer has shot 11% from the 3.

[hsmith19]

Just now, brianstl said:

Over the last 3 games Crawford has averaged 33.6 mpg and Welmer has averaged 28.3 mpg.  Crawford has shot 37% overall and Welmer 32%.  Crawford has shot 23% from the 3 and Welmer has shot 11% from the 3.

And you're setting the end points at three games because it includes Welmer's two really bad games and Crawford's one sort of good game. Trouble is all three were still losses. If we're going to be terrible either way I'd rather lose with Welmer than lose with Crawford, especially since Welmer has been better overall over the first six games.

[slufan13]

3 minutes ago, hsmith19 said:

And you're setting the end points at three games because it includes Welmer's two really bad games and Crawford's one sort of good game. Trouble is all three were still losses. If we're going to be terrible either way I'd rather lose with Welmer than lose with Crawford, especially since Welmer has been better overall over the first six games.

One advantage of choosing those 3 games is that 2 of them are against the quality of opponent that we'll see in conference play. I don't really care what anyone did against the likes of Eastern Illinois and Southern Utah. Even Samford is ranked almost 80 spots better than either of those teams per kenpom.

[hsmith19]

And since I bothered to look it up, Crawford has attempted 35 shots to Welmer's 22 over those three games. So yeah, i'd say that does have something to do with him "doubling" Welmer in points. If you're trying to spin Crawford's 3-13 performance from 3P as some kind of positive just because Welmer had that one bad game shooting threes against BYU, you're really digging deep.

[brianstl]

2 minutes ago, slufan13 said:

Personally, I'd play all our guards less. Crawford because he's hurt and struggling, Roby because his legs give out at the end of games, Bishop because he's turning it over way too much. Let Johnson play the 3 and let Moore get more time in the backcourt. If you take 3 mins from each of those guys, they still play plenty and you get the frosh 5 more mins/game each. Obviously you still have to put competent lineups out there (meaning no Hines/Moore/Johnson backcourt), but I think it would be a good short-term and long-term move. 

I agree with this.  I really think 33-34 minutes a game is pushing it with Crawford still not at full game condition and even at full game condition that is a lot to expect out of Crawford.  I think Zeke really needs to be playing around 20 minutes a game right now.  He is the least turnover prone player on the team, he is further along defensively than I thought he would be and you would figure with more minutes he would find his shot.

[wgstl]

2 minutes ago, brianstl said:

I agree with this.  I really think 33-34 minutes a game is pushing it with Crawford still not at full game condition and even at full game condition that is a lot to expect out of Crawford.  I think Zeke really needs to be playing around 20 minutes a game right now.  He is the least turnover prone player on the team, he is further along defensively than I thought he would be and you would figure with more minutes he would find his shot.

Ya as noted by someone earlier that Roby always seems sluggish at the end of games, and Crawford, especially last night was limping in the final few minutes.

[brianstl]

16 minutes ago, hsmith19 said:

And since I bothered to look it up, Crawford has attempted 35 shots to Welmer's 22 over those three games. So yeah, i'd say that does have something to do with him "doubling" Welmer in points. If you're trying to spin Crawford's 3-13 performance from 3P as some kind of positive just because Welmer had that one bad game shooting threes against BYU, you're really digging deep.

 

21 minutes ago, hsmith19 said:

And you're setting the end points at three games because it includes Welmer's two really bad games and Crawford's one sort of good game. Trouble is all three were still losses. If we're going to be terrible either way I'd rather lose with Welmer than lose with Crawford, especially since Welmer has been better overall over the first six games.

I am not trying to spin anything as a positive.  I actually think Crawford is playing too much.  Neither Crawford nor Welmer have been good over those game overall.  I am just laying out what their numbers are over the last few games because those are the players and the time period the OP brought up in the first post in this thread.

[slu72]

I certainly admire Ford's efforts to turn this team around. Problem is it's like trying to start a 1976 Pinto that's been sitting idle for 30+ years. We all know what the problem is, and Travis is way more painfully aware of it than we MBM's. We have what is called LOFT, lack of f&^$%ng talent. Take your pick, save maybe for Reggie, who should lose their starting spot. Crawford's struggles are likely a hangover from lack of practice due to his injury. Wellmer showed some promise but now looks like another Jim Crews miscue. It strikes me that Bishop has some ego problems. I expect he'll be gone after this year. Robie says all the right things but then can't walk the talk night in and night out. So, again, take your pick. Give the FR some of those minutes and find out what you had.

At least Travis isn't pulling a Tom Crean in his first year at IU. He was heard to yell along the sidelines during his first season, "Jesus couldn't win with this talent, and I ain't no Jesus."

[wgstl]

20 minutes ago, slu72 said:

 We have what is called LOFT, lack of f&^$%ng talent.

Yes we do lack talent.  Talent against BYU and Bama, and against what will be k state, Dayton, URI, VCU.  But it's hard to think we dont have the talent to beat samford, or even compete against ball st, or hell, maybe even Chicago st. 

 

I only trusted 2 players going into this season. Crawford and Reggie.  Not even Roby. there was going to be a lot of fresh faces, but thought at least Crawford would hold his own. 

[HoosierPal]

1 hour ago, slufan13 said:

Here's the most frequent lineups over the past 5 games per kenpom. I would agree with their position designations for the most part.

This is an interesting table.  Thanks for sharing.  But I can see some issues with it.  When Reggie and Elliott are both in, they default Welmer to the 5, probably because he is taller than Reggie.  We all know that Reggie is in the lane at the 5, and Welmer is a more of a stretch 4.

[73Billiken]

There obviously are a lot of short comings to the current team but some of these are fixable. Empty trips down the court:are killing this team right now.

MC's 3 pt shooting seems to come in flat and skims off of the basket more frequently than not.  He is aggressive around the hoop, snagging rebounds, driving the lane but the outside shots have not been consistent.  Not sure if his hamstring is still the problem affecting his shot or what.

Poor pass decisions trying either to feed RA or EW down low that get intercepted or passes that they cannot handle.

Can some tell RA that he is allowed to use the backboard or given that he is 6' 9" that he can dunk the ball?  How much bigger do you have to be to dunk?  Worse case he is fouled and he goes to the line to shoot free throws.  He may have a higher FT% than some of his recent FG%'s......Enough of the finesse shots and get the ball in the basket.

No one expected a tourney bid this year but these are b-ball fundamentals that at this level should be there and not require Ford to instill them..............

 

 

 

 

[Quality Is Job 1]

20 minutes ago, 73Billiken said:

There obviously are a lot of short comings to the current team but some of these are fixable. Empty trips down the court:are killing this team right now.

MC's 3 pt shooting seems to come in flat and skims off of the basket more frequently than not.  He is aggressive around the hoop, snagging rebounds, driving the lane but the outside shots have not been consistent.  Not sure if his hamstring is still the problem affecting his shot or what.

Poor pass decisions trying either to feed RA or EW down low that get intercepted or passes that they cannot handle.

Can some tell RA that he is allowed to use the backboard or given that he is 6' 9" that he can dunk the ball?  How much bigger do you have to be to dunk?  Worse case he is fouled and he goes to the line to shoot free throws.  He may have a higher FT% than some of his recent FG%'s......Enough of the finesse shots and get the ball in the basket.

No one expected a tourney bid this year but these are b-ball fundamentals that at this level should be there and not require Ford to instill them..............

 

 

 

 

Agbeko is 6-7, not 6-9, and he doesn't have great hops.

[billiken_roy]

I typically despise the use of initials and/or acronyms.  but I like LOFT and expect we will have the opportunity to use that a lot this season.