TheA_Bomb Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 13-19 includes 0-1 in Conference Tournament Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgeldmacher Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 14 wins. That may be optimistic, but Ford has me feeling in an optimistic mood. Hopefully, we all remember by the end of the season that a total like 13, 14, 15 wins, if it happens, is actually a vast improvement over the last two seasons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box and Won Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeSmetBilliken Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 12 wins. Hoping for a few more than that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 13 wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheeseman Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 4 hours ago, Old guy said: Hello cheeseman, yes past performance may be taken into consideration in making a prediction, BUT it is not by itself a predictor of future performance, it must be combined with other factors. In our case we have a new coach, a new system of play, a new atmosphere in the interaction between players and coach, new players, old injuries, and new tricks that old dogs (players) may have learned from the new coach. We do not know as yet how all of these, and other as yet undetermined factors, will mix together, but the combination of all of these factors is what will determine our results for this season. This season will categorically not be a mere replay of the past season. We do not really know how much we will differ from last year's performance at this moment in time. However, I think that there is reason for optimism and for hoping we will perform better than last year coming from our performance in the exhibition game. Of course, I may be wrong, but that is part of the prediction game, it is just my guess and I have no crystal ball either, neither does anyone else. Since this is all in fun, nobody is expecting to be held to their prediction. I did acknowledge in my post that there were other factors that would impact if a player's previous performance would actually happen. I still contend that when a team - any sport - is put together, those doing it do look at players past performance when considering trades and free agent signings. My point simply was that when a person makes a prediction in this type of a thread they are looking at past performance and simply not discounting it as you proposed in your first post.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 Just now, moytoy12 said: Has SLU ever visited dunk city? Yes, in the 2000-01 season, courtesy of Jeffers, Tatum, et al. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drkelsey55 Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 14 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted November 8, 2016 Author Share Posted November 8, 2016 I think the talent is down, but I'll put something into the idea that the teammates are better and they don't have a coach who will stick you on the bench for games at a time. 14 wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pistol Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SShoe Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 12 wins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philliken Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 Call me overly optimistic, but I'm saying 16. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bonwich Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 On 11/7/2016 at 6:51 AM, cheeseman said: So what you are saying is that past performance is not an indicator of future performance? If you have a player that has scored 10 pts a game for 2 years then it is not reasonable to assume that he will at least do that again? Yes I know factors impact that but is it not fair to assume that injuries or some other unrelated issue will be in play? A prediction is just that a best guess by the person making it. No one is claiming to have a crystal ball. Of course based on what people say it is fair to deduce that someone is either optimistic or pessimistic. I usually do not get involved in predicting how many games a team will win or not win because frankly I do not want to waste my time and effort analyzing everything that must go into making a valid prediction but many do not feel that way so more power to them. Hey, ABomb -- doesn't this imply that SignGuy should compile a NowCast, a Polls-Only Forecast and a Polls-Plus Forecast? Hey, SignGuy -- if you demonstrate a cool methodology, could you get that published as a paper that counts toward your tenure? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kmbilliken Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 15 regular season wins. 1 in the conference tournament. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheA_Bomb Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 1 hour ago, bonwich said: Hey, ABomb -- doesn't this imply that SignGuy should compile a NowCast, a Polls-Only Forecast and a Polls-Plus Forecast? Hey, SignGuy -- if you demonstrate a cool methodology, could you get that published as a paper that counts toward your tenure? fivethirtyeight is owned by ESPN and they'd probably quote Pol. Scientist Steven Rogers again. I think the Nowcast is at 13 and the Polls Plus for Billiken wins is at about 12. We should see these numbers converge near the end of the race. Although we do have our competitor prognosticator the Wiz that has his own methodology. I think he incorporates more economic data into his such as Jersey and Hat sales. He has been criticized in the past for just stealing his numbers from Vegas and also he misses all the hat sales at the Arena store so I think he might be off. In all the Billiken predictive models white guys over 30 are waaaay over sampled. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 Head (reasonable expectation): 13. Heart (what I'd really like to see): 16+. Fantasy (what I been smokin'?): 21 and an NIT appearance. Put me down for head and I root for heart. There are probably two other ranges, but I won't get into those. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Pelican Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 I think we should make this interesting... Lets set the over/under at 12.5 wins. Those participating agree that if they are incorrect in the prediction that they will donate $50 to the Billikens.com Fundraiser. That would require Steve to reopen the payment processes in March, if he would agree. I think this will make it interesting and keep those with predictions accountable while benefiting the Motherland, Billikens.com. The Pelican - under Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsmith19 Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 4 minutes ago, The Pelican said: I think we should make this interesting... Lets set the over/under at 12.5 wins. Those participating agree that if they are incorrect in the prediction that they will donate $50 to the Billikens.com Fundraiser. That would require Steve to reopen the payment processes in March, if he would agree. I think this will make it interesting and keep those with predictions accountable while benefiting the Motherland, Billikens.com. The Pelican - under I said 12 so I will stick by the under. That way I can't lose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 I'm under. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 20 minutes ago, The Pelican said: I think we should make this interesting... Lets set the over/under at 12.5 wins. Those participating agree that if they are incorrect in the prediction that they will donate $50 to the Billikens.com Fundraiser. That would require Steve to reopen the payment processes in March, if he would agree. I think this will make it interesting and keep those with predictions accountable while benefiting the Motherland, Billikens.com. The Pelican - under I like the idea of a good bet, believe me, but I'm not sure incentivizing half the fans to call against the team is a good idea. We had that last year as people didn't want them to win down the stretch because they thought it would make it more likely that Crews is retained. We need to be united in rooting FOR the Bills this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsmith19 Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 I will root hard to owe the $50. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Pelican Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 3 minutes ago, kshoe said: I like the idea of a good bet, believe me, but I'm not sure incentivizing half the fans to call against the team is a good idea. We had that last year as people didn't want them to win down the stretch because they thought it would make it more likely that Crews is retained. We need to be united in rooting FOR the Bills this year. This seems a little extreme. It's a win-win. Relax and have fun with it. If you are not rooting for the Bills either way then you should go to tigerboard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufanskip Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 1 hour ago, Quality Is Job 1 said: Head (reasonable expectation): 13. Heart (what I'd really like to see): 16+. Fantasy (what I been smokin'?): 21 and an NIT appearance. Put me down for head and I root for heart. There are probably two other ranges, but I won't get into those. Put me down for head also, but 'm going to leave my heart out of it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 1 hour ago, The Pelican said: I think we should make this interesting... Lets set the over/under at 12.5 wins. Those participating agree that if they are incorrect in the prediction that they will donate $50 to the Billikens.com Fundraiser. That would require Steve to reopen the payment processes in March, if he would agree. I think this will make it interesting and keep those with predictions accountable while benefiting the Motherland, Billikens.com. The Pelican - under Count me out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drkelsey55 Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 No bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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