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First Impressions


The Wiz

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Hi all

Little early for me to be posting but with the early exit of the baseball Cards I have  had some extra time which I have used to ...."go see the kids play"

First, there is a different flavor to the practices. Crews directed practices, Ford runs them.  He is dribbling, passing , teaching. They are intense. One thing we will see is a team that will play hard for the whole game. I think we are a better team this year than the last 2 years...better hustle, better basketball knowledge, better understanding of what each player is supposed to do, better attitude....BUT that doesn't mean we will win more games.

This will be a different game than we have seen in a while...end to end bball...faster offense,, fuller court defense. And therein lies the BUT from the above paragraph. If we are better why won't we win more.  My concern is at the 10 minute mark of the 2nd half.  I don't know if we have enough bodies to keep up the pace. My fear is that in a close game we fade.

Which leads us to the next point...injuries. Every team has them but they will be especially devastating to the Bills  who start the year short on depth.

General observations

..........returning players seem a little bigger...a little bulkier..

..........The incoming transfers look great

...........The freshman look promising (Moore  and Johnson)...will definitely get a lot of minutes during the year.

............The big men look more aggressive...maybe the extra bulk, maybe the extra experience, maybe going .............against tougher practice competition (transfers)

............Starting 5...who knows?...I don't think Ford knows at this point. Those that produce will play.

Bottom line...........This will be another tough year BUT they will be fun to watch with new intensity, new purpose and new attitude  particularly in anticipation of next year when we should be awesome.  For me, a passing grade will be 12 wins... a successful season 15 wins.

................

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I agree with the Wiz, more or less, on all these observations, and will add to them;

Practices are quite intense and yes, Coach Ford is definitely in control and very vocal, setting a new and different sort of standard.  He really leads the practice vocally and physically, and he is a very forceful and inspiring coach.  The other things I would add are, stamina may become a major issue due to Coach Ford's emphasis on running hard and playing up tempo.  this will pay off later, but I'm not sure we have the horses right now.  Intensity and toughness are also a key focus and getting called out right away.  I have been pretty impressed, and excited, about the tone and intensity of practices.

--3 transfers are all specimens and boy, if they could play, we could really be good this year; together they'd probably get 100 minutes out of 200, if they had the stamina.  Foreman has a pro body and is a beast;  and Henriquez is a terrific shooter with very quick release, not afraid to let it fly that's for sure, and also pretty big, a legit 6'6".  Bess is just very tough all around and I was surprised by his shooting from the arc.  These 3 are just clearly the leaders (without saying much, either, except by Henriquez who is a talker!), and there work ethic and physical prowess will really be great for the team all year.

--Physically Neufeld is much stronger; has probably made the biggest strides, body-wise, despite the illness.    Wellmer has been held back by injury and, because of the nature of the foot injury, the training staff specifically kept him from gaining muscle mass to protect the foot.  Crawford still in recovery mode with leg issues along with lingering plantar fascitis--it is concerning.  I think Jermaine has filled out a little, and looks a bit larger to me.  Markos, the Greek kid, is actually not bad, and may find some minutes as well as Hines.  I also have no ideas about starters or rotation, but certainly Roby, Jermaine, Neufeld, Wellmer, Agbeko, will play a lot; along with Crawford if he can stay healthy.

--Freshmen are both defensively challenged.  Moore is bigger than I had imagined; Johnson about the same size but he is skinnier in the shoulders than I thought and I think both are works in progress.  They will both have to play right away, but actually both could use a year to gain weight and learn to play at a more intense level, especially defense.  I had high hopes for them coming right in and scoring, especially Johnson, but that is tempered more for me, right now.

that is all ....

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Thank you Wiz and Doctor B for your analysis of the team it gives me hope for this season.

All I am looking for this season is fundamentals, execution, and 12 or less turnovers and the team will compete every game, maybe not win but at least it will be fun to watch.

I look forward to every Billiken basketball season win or lose.

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26 minutes ago, TheChosenOne said:

Was Oklahoma State known for playing uptempo basketball? To be an uptempo team wouldn't Hines have to get considerable run again?

OK St.'s tempo ratings the last five seasons according to Pomeroy were 168, 109, 57, 241 and 333.

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2 hours ago, slu72 said:

Neufeld and Wellmer, Wiz, how'd they look?

Bulkier and more aggressive ...all the big men are being trained and toughened up to go to the basket ...both offensively and defensively.  I think most agree, it is rare for a first year big man to come in and be a star player. What we will see this year is the natural progression and improvement of these players.

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40 minutes ago, TheChosenOne said:

Was Oklahoma State known for playing uptempo basketball? To be an uptempo team wouldn't Hines have to get considerable run again?

I recall OSU fans saying when we hired Ford that he talked about running an up-tempo offense there, but it never truly came to fruition. With that said, given SLU's propensity to not play up-tempo forever, I might think that even a partial up-tempo offense would seem fast paced.

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29 minutes ago, DeSmetBilliken said:

I recall OSU fans saying when we hired Ford that he talked about running an up-tempo offense there, but it never truly came to fruition. With that said, given SLU's propensity to not play up-tempo forever, I might think that even a partial up-tempo offense would seem fast paced.

I was just curious. I am more of a fan of seeing sound basketball (I assume the Majerus squads would be ranked low in the tempo ratings forcing teams to defend their action for most of the shot clock as well as taking teams out of their sets and not giving up many open looks on the other end) than concerning myself with what pace the team plays at, so I really don't care. I do question the current rosters ability to play uptempo though unless we see a lot of Hines and whether it would even make sense (Majerus and even Soderberg to some extent put out a pretty good blue print of how to win without the top talent/athleticism). I also understand that almost every coach who fashions himself as a recruiter is going to sell playing an exciting brand of basketball that will get up and down the court (also to sell tickets and excite fans).

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27 minutes ago, DeSmetBilliken said:

I recall OSU fans saying when we hired Ford that he talked about running an up-tempo offense there, but it never truly came to fruition. With that said, given SLU's propensity to not play up-tempo forever, I might think that even a partial up-tempo offense would seem fast paced.

I agree. We will not be confused with Louisville. But as you said, compared to past Billiken history, it will be a noticeable change.

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Just now, 3star_recruit said:

Ford had a couple of OSU teams that averaged 80ppg.  More often than not his teams averaged under 70 because they couldn't rebound well enough against Big 12 frontcourts. Compare that to his final two seasons at UMass where his teams averaged 77 and 81 ppg.

Thanks. So the takeaway for me would be that given his ideal roster, he would like to play up tempo and score a lot of points.

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20 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

I agree. We will not be confused with Louisville. But as you said, compared to past Billiken history, it will be a noticeable change.

Thanks to Brian and the reference with regards to finding the tempo rankings I now have a better understanding as to why I don't care about tempo. In Rick's final season the team was ranked 286 (adjusted tempo of 64.2) and then 212 (adjusted tempo of 65.2) the following season when Crews kept things unchanged for the most part. The following season when Crews made some changes and we found ourselves still winning games, but kind of struggling the team jumped up to 123 with an adjusted tempo of 67.4. And then last season we were ranked 115 with an adjusted tempo of 70. So based on this tempo rating, Crews actually played more uptempo than Ford's Oklahoma State teams the past 3 seasons (an average adjusted tempo of 67.03 vs. 66 for OSU and an average ranking of 163 vs. 210) and our best teams in program history played at a slower pace than one of our worst teams in program history. I was primarily looking for a reason to waste some time this morning, so if anyone has any other research tasks send them my way.

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1 hour ago, TheChosenOne said:

Thanks to Brian and the reference with regards to finding the tempo rankings I now have a better understanding as to why I don't care about tempo. In Rick's final season the team was ranked 286 (adjusted tempo of 64.2) and then 212 (adjusted tempo of 65.2) the following season when Crews kept things unchanged for the most part. The following season when Crews made some changes and we found ourselves still winning games, but kind of struggling the team jumped up to 123 with an adjusted tempo of 67.4. And then last season we were ranked 115 with an adjusted tempo of 70. So based on this tempo rating, Crews actually played more uptempo than Ford's Oklahoma State teams the past 3 seasons (an average adjusted tempo of 67.03 vs. 66 for OSU and an average ranking of 163 vs. 210) and our best teams in program history played at a slower pace than one of our worst teams in program history. I was primarily looking for a reason to waste some time this morning, so if anyone has any other research tasks send them my way.

How did Ford's teams do in terms of record when they were playing high vs low tempo?

 

He seems to be somewhat flexible, but I'm curious what has brought him success in the past...

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1 hour ago, Zink said:

How did Ford's teams do in terms of record when they were playing high vs low tempo?

He seems to be somewhat flexible, but I'm curious what has brought him success in the past...

That was my initial question and I think I would say when he has his ideal roster he would prefer to play fast, but here is the data (sorry for the delay):

2015-16 (12-20 record): 333rd in adjusted tempo (98th overall in Pomeroy rank)

2014-15 (18-14 record): 241st in adjusted tempo (38th overall in Pomeroy rank)

2013-14 (21-13 record): 57th in adjusted tempo (21st overall in Pomeroy rank)

2012-13 (24-9 record): 109th in adjusted tempo (24th overall in Pomeroy rank)

2011-12 (15-18 record): 168th in adjusted tempo (97th overall in Pomeroy rank)

2010-11 (20-14 record): 222nd in adjusted tempo (73rd overall in Pomeroy rank)

2009-10 (22-11 record): 174th in adjusted tempo (39th overall in Pomeroy rank)

2008-09 (23-12 record): 35th in adjusted tempo (26th overall in Pomeroy rank) *had the highest adjusted tempo of any of his teams at OSU at 72.1

 

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13 minutes ago, TheChosenOne said:

That was my initial question and I think I would say when he has his ideal roster he would prefer to play fast, but here is the data (sorry for the delay):

2015-16 (12-20 record): 333rd in adjusted tempo (98th overall in Pomeroy rank)

2014-15 (18-14 record): 241st in adjusted tempo (38th overall in Pomeroy rank)

2013-14 (21-13 record): 57th in adjusted tempo (21st overall in Pomeroy rank)

2012-13 (24-9 record): 109th in adjusted tempo (24th overall in Pomeroy rank)

2011-12 (15-18 record): 168th in adjusted tempo (97th overall in Pomeroy rank)

2010-11 (20-14 record): 222nd in adjusted tempo (73rd overall in Pomeroy rank)

2009-10 (22-11 record): 174th in adjusted tempo (39th overall in Pomeroy rank)

2008-09 (23-12 record): 35th in adjusted tempo (26th overall in Pomeroy rank) *had the highest adjusted tempo of any of his teams at OSU at 72.1

 

Very interesting, and thanks for checking.

Every time his team was in the top-half nationally in terms of tempo, they were in the top-26 on Pomeroy. Whenever they were slower than average, his teams were worse. Wonder what is driving the correlation here; it is actually a good idea to play more slowly with less talented teams in order to increase the amount that randomness affects the outcome (more variability in possible outcomes with smaller sample sizes). I wonder if he is that stats savvy, or if it is more along the lines of 'well, we aren't good, so let's make sure the players do the things we want them to and learn something', leading to more rigidity, less freedom, and a slower pace. Or something else entirely.

Whatever the reasoning, hopefully he can get to that level of tempo and performance again here.

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Keep in mind that better teams tend to be more up-tempo anyway.  It can be a chicken or egg type argument.  Are they good because they play up-tempo or do they play up-tempo because they are good?  I tend to think that better more talented teams naturally play the game faster.  Often teams that are underdogs in games think their only chance is to slow the game down.

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Just now, cgeldmacher said:

Keep in mind that better teams tend to be more up-tempo anyway.  It can be a chicken or egg type argument.  Are they good because they play up-tempo or do they play up-tempo because they are good?  I tend to think that better more talented teams naturally play the game faster.  Often teams that are underdogs in games think their only chance is to slow the game down.

I understand your point, but something like tempo is likely mostly dependent on the coach and the system he runs. Look at Majerus at SLU, his teams were going to play incredibly disciplined basketball and make teams work on both ends of the court which in turn led to fewer possessions. Guys like Tony Bennett at UVA and Tom Izzo at MSU or Wisconsin (now with Greg Gard) are similar. In the NBA, Cleveland (Miami before when they had Lebron) was probably among the "slower" teams in the league when it comes to pace while Golden State is on the opposite end of the spectrum, so it depends on how the coach wants to play and the personnel.

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27 minutes ago, papal said:

Does defense effect tempo?  When Jordair or McCall would force a turnover and score a layup in 4-5 seconds is that calculated in tempo?

Yes. Tempo is (usually) calculated based on number of possessions per game, so turnovers and transition do factor in. 

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22 hours ago, cgeldmacher said:

Keep in mind that better teams tend to be more up-tempo anyway.  It can be a chicken or egg type argument.  Are they good because they play up-tempo or do they play up-tempo because they are good?  I tend to think that better more talented teams naturally play the game faster.  Often teams that are underdogs in games think their only chance is to slow the game down.

See also: Soderberg, Brad.

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