Bills Season Outlook.

[hsmith19]

Oldguy, I can understand how some of these games would show up as winnable in a projection model. That's why I asked--I was genuinely curious which ones the Wiz was considering winnable. But looking at the schedule, it is just very hard for me to picture us beating a team like Davidson or Richmond this year. Even sweeping GM sounds really ambitious to me right now, in spite of what the projections might say. But I freely admit I am probably putting too much stock in results over the past year or two, especially for GM, who returned their top three scorers from a team that really abused us on our own court last year and almost beat the 2013 team twice. No offense intended to the Wiz or his statistical model.

[Old guy]

Hsmith19. OK I can see your point of view, it is hard to make a jump from what you know and have seen before (George Mason ripping us apart last year at our own home) with a new reality, but the truth is that sports teams are dynamic systems always changing. Let me give you a couple of examples from our own Bills. At the end of the terrible last season, there was a view among SLU fans that Bartley was pretty good. He had shown an ability to shoot lots of 3 pointers, and was expected to be playing in the PG role this year. As it stands now, he has played 8 games and made 4 out of 15 attempts at 3 pointers, not very good. Other than that he has had a total of 6 rebounds, 11 assists, 1 block and 2 steals. He has scored 24 points in 8 games and played 107 minutes. These are not stellar results for Bartley

Reynolds finished last year with people in this blog seeing him as a possible transfer or at least someone who would spend a lot of time in the bench. Not so, so far this year Reynolds has played very well as a guard, has made 3 out of 6 attempts at 3 pointers. He has made 12 rebounds, 29 assists, 2 blocks and 13 steals. He has scored a total of 93 points in 8 games and played 213 minutes.

As you can see clearly, Reynolds has contributed substantially more to the team than Bartley has. Our pre season expectations for their performance this year was entirely incorrect. Please keep in mind that this happens within a year as well, players get motivated and advance. Sports teams are dynamic, changing entities. We may, however improbable it may appear to large numbers of posters, improve in the course of this year and wind up winning more games than we currently have any right to expect. This is, of course, something that cannot be predicted with any certainty but it may happen.

[slufan13]

This is a good blog. Jimbo is my favorite blogger

[Tonka]

Yes, but some people are better bloggers than others.

[The Wiz]

Now that I have a minimun amount of data , I thought this would be a good time to look at the season.

For those following me on the board you know that the Bills are a C+ team with a current range of B to C-. Also the A-10 report card shows that we are not an elite A-10 team...but you knew that already. But what do these things mean for wins and losses.

Let's take a look.....

I am showing we should win 3 of the 4 remaining OOC games. That means we finish at 8-4 through Dec. Then in A-10 play I am showing we win 5 games......conference record...5-13...overall rec..13-17...a definite thud. But these numbers assume no change from today ...we play in March the same as we play today.

But what is the potential for the season? What is the upside? What happens if JC coaches them up...the team grows (as in experience and knowledge not height) and matures...we cut down on TOs and mistakes...we continue to make FTs at 70%+...we get an extra couple of rebounds / gm....we get a good bounce occasionally...maybe even a good ref call (.hmmm ..let's not go crazy) The potential is another 5 wins...conf rec....10-8....overall 18-12. Most would agree this would be a successful season. We are not talking about major changes, just a few small things here and there. ...an extra few throw ..an extra rebound... an extra timeout ( everyone can learn)... a few less turnovers..

Now before people go running off and saying...The Wiz said we are going to be 18-12... remember this is about potential.

Bottomline...if we improve 18-12 ....if we stay the same....13-17...if we have less than 13 wins then I would considerr that regression.

Should be an interesting season.

I thought it would be interesting to review this post again. I made this post at the beginning of the season (the season starts for me after the 7th game of the season) This was the post I predicted the Bills would go 5-13. in conference play. While that forecast worked out , I brought this post back mainly as a season review. ...what would be a good or bad season. The best case scenario was 18 wins....everyone stays healthy, we improve, we catch a few lucky breaks, etc. Not a likely scenario but possible. Then I mentioned 13 games as a minimum ...at this point I was implying that with 13 wins Crews could stay...not that he would or should but that would be a minimum. And finally, I mention 12 as being regression...ie unacceptable..the implication that Crews would be gone at 12 or less.

Again, as the conference forecast came in right on target, this is another indication that their was no improvement during the season.We are right where we were on Dec. 6 after game 7. ...Trending down then leveling off to no improvement.

Tick...tick...1 and....

[slu72]

Tick...tick...1 and....

BOOM! Just like that another season is blown all to hell.

[kmbilliken]

a 5 game winning streak gets us to the dance and saves Crews job. Is the trade off worth it?

[The Wiz]

a 5 game winning streak gets us to the dance and saves Crews job. Is the trade off worth it?

Well based on my original post ...18 wins a successful season ...13 just barely passing....16 wins would be barely successful. ...which at this point is winning the A-10 tournament AND the 1st game of the Dance.

If he could do that I would give him another chance. But what are the chances? Well, for the Bills to win the A-10 tourney would be a long shot. How much of a long shot? Get a deck of cards and deal out 5 cards. If you get a straight flush, shuffle up again and deal 5 more...if you get a Royal Flush then you have just duplicated what Crews has to do to get to the Dance.

If he can do that he would deserve another chance....start shuffling

[Major Majerus]

I did as u suggested & got the 2 hands required. All that was needed was a deck of jokers.

[The Wiz]

I did as u suggested & got the 2 hands required. All that was needed was a deck of jokers.

Lol

[Bay Area Billiken]

Well based on my original post ...18 wins a successful season ...13 just barely passing....16 wins would be barely successful. ...which at this point is winning the A-10 tournament AND the 1st game of the Dance.

If he could do that I would give him another chance. But what are the chances? Well, for the Bills to win the A-10 tourney would be a long shot. How much of a long shot? Get a deck of cards and deal out 5 cards. If you get a straight flush, shuffle up again and deal 5 more...if you get a Royal Flush then you have just duplicated what Crews has to do to get to the Dance.

If he can do that he would deserve another chance....start shuffling

Which has the higher chance of happening?

a. SLU winning the A10 Tournament;

b. Winning the Lottery;

c. Being struck by lighting;

d. Being run over by a car crossing the street.

[The Wiz]

Which has the higher chance of happening?

a. SLU winning the A10 Tournament;

b. Winning the Lottery;

c. Being struck by lighting;

d. Being run over by a car crossing the street.

Reverse order....d c b a...so we should be safe